在金融世界里，有一个有趣的现象：同样是"金子"，金条被视为标准的避险资产，而金首饰、金工艺品 却并不具备同样的属性。有人会说："金条和金首饰，不都是保值的吗？"其实，这里面有很大的差别。 一、避险资产的核心标准：标准化、流动性、可计量 避险资产的第一要义，不是它有多"好看"，而是它能否快速、透明、公允地进行价值交换。 所以，金条=标准化资产；金首饰=消费品。两者的属性，一开始就不一样。 真正的投资逻辑是：低买高卖，有一个统一的定价标准。而首饰和工艺品没有这个条件，它们更像是一 种"消费品"，只是在材料上用了黄金。 二、市场流通的差别：买入容易，卖出难 你去金店买金首饰很容易，但如果要回收，就会发现现实很扎心。 金条之所以能成为避险工具，就在于它的规格统一，成色可控，几乎没有人为溢价。比如常见 的"9999纯金金条"，全球认可，哪里都能换现。 金首饰和工艺品则不同，它们附带了工艺溢价、设计溢价、人力成本，价值不完全等于金子的本 身含量。哪怕你买了一条五万元的金项链，真正含金价值可能只有三万，剩下的两万都是工艺 费、品牌费。 首饰卖回去，大多数商家只认"金子重量"，还要扣除损耗、折旧、工费。你买来时5万，卖回去可 ...

Group 1 - The essence of currency is based on commodities and transactions, with credit currencies like paper money requiring actual transaction support to maintain value [1] - The dominance of the US dollar as a global reserve currency is primarily due to its pricing of commodities like oil and the US's control over international currency exchange systems [1] - The historical context of the gold standard established by Isaac Newton links currency value closely to gold, which has evolved over time, leading to the current challenges faced by the dollar [3] Group 2 - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with countries like Germany, France, and Poland repatriating gold, reflecting deep concerns about the dollar system [5] - Japan and other US allies are increasing investments in Chinese bonds, indicating a challenge to the dollar's global status [5] - The US's excessive money printing to manage debt has led to a decline in the dollar's purchasing power and its global currency status [7] Group 3 - A proposed bill in the US aims to restore the gold standard, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy to curb dollar inflation [7] - The discussion around de-dollarization has become a significant international economic issue, with countries openly seeking alternatives to the dollar [8] - The rising US debt and inflation are prompting a reevaluation of the dollar's global currency status, with some economies considering pegging their currencies to gold or decentralized digital currencies [13] Group 4 - Approximately 40 representative countries, including China, India, Japan, and Russia, are advancing the de-dollarization process through various means [15] - The application of blockchain technology is accelerating the de-dollarization process, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [15] - The former Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, suggests that replacing the dollar with a globally recognized digital currency could address significant issues faced by non-US decision-makers [15] Group 5 - Investment figures like Jim Rogers warn that the decline of the dollar is an inevitable historical process, while reports indicate that the Federal Reserve's actions threaten the dollar's reserve currency status [17]

Group 1 - The euro has shown significant strength, breaking the 1.16 mark against the dollar, reaching a high of 1.1641, the highest since October 2021, driven by geopolitical easing and a shift from traditional safe-haven assets [1] - Investor confidence in the Eurozone economy is increasing, with the European Central Bank (ECB) projecting continued growth over the next three years and a drop in unemployment to a record low of 6.2% [2] - The ECB has recently lowered key interest rates by 25 basis points, signaling the end of the easing cycle, which contrasts with the Federal Reserve's delayed rate cut expectations, providing relative support for the euro [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a cautious approach to rate cuts, suggesting that the first cut may be delayed until the fourth quarter, as the Fed awaits clearer evidence of inflation trends [3] - A report from OMFIF shows that the dollar's popularity among central banks has declined, with 70% of respondents citing the U.S. political environment as a barrier to investing in dollars, leading to a shift towards alternatives like the euro and gold [4] - Experts predict that the euro's share in global reserves could rise to 25% within 2-3 years, driven by a decline in the dollar's dominance and the need for deeper European integration in financial markets [5]

作者 | 谭保罗 编辑 | 江江 值班编辑｜ 宝珠 视觉 | 顾芗 2025年以来，来自特朗普政府的"政策冲击波"，给国际金融市场带来了前所未有的影响。有人认为，美 元国际货币的地位将受到挑战，黄金、比特币等替代品，将对美元形成越来越强的替代效应。 数据似乎也在佐证这一点。拉长时间线，从2023年初到2025年5月，黄金已从刚刚超过1800美元每盎司 涨到了3300美元以上，涨幅超过80%。比特币也重拾涨势，但它远远没有得到黄金那样的全球认可度， 并非真正的法定货币，加上投机属性过重，因此不予讨论。 实际上，除了黄金等替代品之外，另一种创立之初便有挑战美元雄心的替代品，同样值得关注。它就是 欧元。 这个国家，果断放弃货币主权 差不多和黄金这一轮涨价的时间通道（始于2023年至今）重合，欧元区发生了两件大事。 一是欧元区版图再次扩张。2023年，克罗地亚正式加入欧元区，全国以欧元为法定货币，成为第20个采 用欧元货币的国家。克罗地亚不到400万人口，其加入就欧元区的体量而言，无太大影响。但作为一个 相对欠发达的国家，能加入欧元区，无疑说明了欧元区主导大国如德国、法国和意大利等，推动欧 元"做大做强"的决心愈发坚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The euro has lost its status as a preferred alternative to the US dollar, with recent trends showing a decline in its appeal among investors [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - Most G10 currencies performed better than the euro during the week [1] - The euro is currently viewed as the most overbought currency in the options market [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Concerns over potential weakness in the US economy and optimism regarding German fiscal stimulus have shifted market focus away from worries about the eurozone's economic weakness [1] - A large-scale power outage in Spain and Portugal may further impact the euro negatively [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - If the eurozone's first-quarter economic growth data, set to be released on Wednesday, falls short of expectations, speculators may unwind their bullish positions on the euro [1]