炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：新消费主张/cici 2025年10月，被称为"高端中国茶第一股"的八马茶业成功登陆港交所，上市初期股价一度表现强劲，发 行首日公司股价增87%至93.35港元/股。然而好景不长，上市仅一个多月后，其股价便掉头向下并跌破 发行价，截至2026年1月9日收盘，公司股价已跌至29.12港元/股，盘中更是创下了29.04港元/股的新 低。市场投资者情绪剧烈转变、纷纷用"脚"投票背后，八马茶业经营暗含何种隐忧？ 首先，从浅显的经营业绩来看，八马茶业业绩双降且后续增长动能略显不足。2024年公司还仅是业绩增 速下滑，但到了2025年中期，八马茶业业绩双降，其深度依赖的加盟模式增长疲态尽显，2022年-2024 年，八马茶业直接特许加盟商加盟店分别净增长206家、265家及5家，2024年净增数量大幅下滑。 股价破发后再创新低！业绩双降影响增长预期 八马茶业的高端叙事直面挑战 1998年，八马茶业在深圳开设了第一家连锁专卖店，开启连锁经营模式。此后，八马茶业踏上扩张之 路，推行加盟模式、跨区域经营，还逐步拓展至电 ...

本文源自：市场资讯 作者：公告君 回购日期回购均价回购股数回购金额本年累计回购股数2025-12-162.7403000.008220.0092.80万2025-12- 152.7052000.005410.0092.50万2025-12-122.6903000.008070.0092.30万2025-12- 112.7202000.005440.0092.00万2025-12-102.7102000.005420.0091.80万2025-12- 092.7102000.005420.0091.60万2025-12-082.7101000.002710.0091.40万2025-12- 052.7201000.002720.0091.30万2025-12-042.7202000.005440.0091.20万2025-12- 032.6802000.005360.0091.00万2025-12-012.7201000.002720.0090.80万2025-11- 282.7201000.002720.0090.70万2025-11-272.7201000.002720.0090.60万2025-11- 2 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese tea industry is at a critical transformation point, with a market size projected to reach 325.8 billion yuan in 2024, with green tea dominating at nearly 200 billion yuan [1] - The market is primarily driven by domestic consumption, which accounts for about 70% of total production, indicating strong local consumer resilience [1] - The tea market is segmented into three price tiers: mass market (141.3 billion yuan), mid-range (81.4 billion yuan), and high-end (103.1 billion yuan), with high-end tea showing a stable growth rate of 3.7% [1] Industry Overview - The tea industry is characterized by a significant "non-standard" attribute, leading to high trust costs for consumers, who must navigate both monetary and hidden costs of learning and selection [1][6] - Brand development is crucial for overcoming these challenges, yet over 70,000 tea companies in China are mostly small and weak, resulting in a prevalent "heavy production, light branding" phenomenon [1][6] - Leading companies like Baima, Tianfu, and Lancang Ancient Tea are emerging through multi-channel strategies and focused product categories, with Baima holding a 1.7% market share in the high-end segment [1] Sales Channels - Offline sales remain the dominant channel for high-end tea, accounting for 94.5% of sales in 2024, driven by the social and experiential nature of tea consumption [2] - Online channels are rapidly growing, with new models like live e-commerce and mini-programs reshaping how younger consumers engage with tea products [2] - Future strategies to attract Generation Z include mixed tea innovations, personalized customization, and expansion of niche categories [2] Industry Challenges - The industry faces both opportunities and challenges, including consumption upgrades, digital marketing, and globalization potential, while contending with high upstream planting costs, aging labor force, severe midstream homogenization, and downstream pressures from new tea beverages and export technical barriers [2][6] - Collaborative upgrades across the entire industry chain are essential for overcoming these bottlenecks [2] Market Structure - The Chinese tea market is primarily driven by domestic sales, with domestic production accounting for a significant portion of total output [22] - The market is segmented into high-end, mid-range, and mass-market categories, with high-end tea products typically priced above 700 yuan per kilogram [14][15] - The industry has seen a shift from scale expansion to high-quality development characterized by the integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries [17]

Core Insights - The Chinese tea market is projected to reach a scale of 325.8 billion yuan in 2024, transitioning towards a high-quality integration phase, with domestic sales dominating at approximately 70% of total production [1][4][19] - Green tea remains the leading category, with a market size nearing 200 billion yuan in 2024, followed by black tea at 54.1 billion yuan, and oolong and dark teas closely following [1][4][29] - The industry is characterized by a high level of fragmentation, with over 70,000 tea enterprises, predominantly small workshops, leading to a "heavy on origin, light on brand" scenario, where the top five players hold only about 5.6% of the high-end tea market [1][4][39] Industry Overview - The Chinese tea industry has evolved through three significant phases over the past thirty years: from scale expansion in the mid-1990s, to quality and efficiency enhancement from 2000 to 2019, and now entering a phase of high-quality development and full integration [2][14] - The industry encompasses a complete supply chain covering planting, processing, branding, and channel development, with a steady increase in tea plantation area expected to reach 5.172 million acres by 2024 [2][22][32] Market Structure - The market is segmented into three main price tiers: high-end tea (1,031 billion yuan), mid-range tea (814 billion yuan), and mass-market tea (1,413 billion yuan), reflecting a clear price stratification [1][12][39] - High-end tea products are characterized by rare or precious raw materials and meticulous production processes, targeting consumers with higher purchasing power [10][12] Consumer Behavior - The tea market is influenced by high trust costs due to its non-standard agricultural product nature, necessitating a shift towards branding to reduce transaction costs [7][11] - The offline channel remains dominant, accounting for 94.5% of high-end tea sales in 2024, emphasizing the importance of experiential retail in the tea industry [4][39] Future Opportunities - The industry is poised for growth driven by consumer upgrades towards high-end products, innovations in mixed teas appealing to younger demographics, and the rapid development of online sales channels [43][44][45] - Global interest in Chinese high-end tea is increasing, with opportunities for customized products in international markets, supported by a collaborative approach across the entire supply chain [46]

Core Viewpoint - Suntory has announced price increases for 187 products starting April 1, 2026, following a projected decline in net profit for the year. This price adjustment affects various categories, including whisky, shochu, and imported wine, primarily targeting suggested retail prices rather than factory prices [2][3]. Group 1: Price Increase Details - The price increase follows a previous adjustment in April 2023, where 234 products were affected, indicating that Suntory has completed price hikes across all product categories [2]. - Notable whisky brands such as Yamazaki, Hakushu, and Hibiki will see price increases ranging from 5.6% to 15.3%, with high-aged products like Hibiki 30 Year, Yamazaki 25 Year, and Hakushu 25 Year seeing a suggested retail price of approximately RMB 20,777 per bottle, reflecting an increase of about RMB 2,753.5 [2]. - Other products like Yamazaki 18 Year, Hakushu 18 Year, and Hibiki 21 Year will have their prices raised by approximately RMB 300.5 per bottle, reaching around RMB 3,055.46 [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Suntory reported a revenue of RMB 58.172 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, showing little change from the previous year, while operating profit fell by 9.2% to RMB 5.757 billion. The third quarter alone saw a profit decline of 9.9% [3]. - The company has lowered its profit forecast, expecting a consolidated net profit of approximately RMB 3.9 billion for the fiscal year ending December 2025, a decrease of about 10% year-on-year [3]. - The European market was the only region to show growth, with revenue and profit increasing by 5.1% and 8.3%, respectively, while profits in the Asia-Pacific region and Japan experienced double-digit declines [3][4]. Group 3: Market Challenges - Suntory's growth in China has been hindered, with the company increasingly relying on non-alcoholic beverages like oolong tea, which has led to market share erosion due to intense competition [5]. - The company has faced challenges in innovation and market penetration, particularly in the convenience store channel, which limits deeper market access [5]. - Sales of alcoholic products, particularly whisky, have contracted in China, failing to compensate for the overall performance decline [5]. Group 4: Management Changes - A significant management change occurred when former chairman Takashi Shina resigned on September 1, 2023, due to allegations of violating cannabis control laws, which has raised concerns in the industry [6].

Core Viewpoint - Suntory Holdings is facing pressure on its earnings, leading to a decision to raise prices on 187 products starting April 1, 2026, following a previous price increase on 234 products in April 2023. This move is primarily driven by rising costs of raw materials and packaging [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Suntory reported revenue of 58.172 billion RMB, remaining flat year-on-year, while operating profit decreased by 9.2% to 5.757 billion RMB. The third-quarter profit saw a decline of 9.9% [3]. - The company has lowered its profit forecast, expecting a consolidated net profit of approximately 3.9 billion RMB for the fiscal year ending December 2025, a decrease of about 10% year-on-year [3][4]. Product Pricing Strategy - The price increase for Suntory's whiskey brands, including Yamazaki, Hakushu, and Hibiki, ranges from 5.6% to 15.3%, with high-aged products seeing significant price hikes. For instance, the suggested retail price for Hibiki 30 Year, Yamazaki 25 Year, and Hakushu 25 Year has been raised to approximately 20,777 RMB per bottle, reflecting an increase of about 2,753.5 RMB [2][3]. Market Challenges - Suntory's growth in China has been sluggish, with its beverage segment, particularly non-alcoholic drinks like Oolong tea, becoming a core focus. However, competition in the beverage market has intensified, leading to a gradual erosion of market share [5]. - The company has been overly reliant on its sugar-free tea products, and its innovation in flavors has lagged behind competitors like Nongfu Spring and Yuanqi Forest. Additionally, the relatively rigid channel structure has hindered deeper market penetration in China [5]. Management Changes - A significant management change occurred when former chairman Takashi Shina resigned on September 1 due to allegations of violating cannabis regulations. This incident has raised concerns about the company's leadership and its impact on operations [6]. Future Outlook - Following the price adjustments, there is ongoing speculation about whether Suntory's performance will improve in the coming year, with industry analysts closely monitoring the situation [7].

Core Points - The 17th Cross-Strait Tea Expo was held in Wuyishan, Fujian, attracting over 850 exhibitors, including 173 from Taiwan [1] - The theme of this year's expo is "Three Teas Coordination and Integrated Development," featuring 2,300 exhibition booths and an exhibition area of 48,000 square meters [1] - The Taiwan pavilion had 200 booths, a 14.3% increase from the previous year, highlighting the deepening exchanges in the tea industry across the strait [1] Industry Insights - The expo serves as an important platform for economic and cultural exchanges in the tea industry between the two sides, with many exhibitors reporting valuable networking opportunities [1] - Activities during the expo focus on enhancing exchanges, particularly among youth, with over 10 events planned to promote interaction and cultural appreciation [2] - The event is co-hosted by various industry organizations from both sides, indicating strong collaborative efforts in promoting tea culture [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the historical significance of Wuyi Mountain in the development of tea culture in China, particularly as the birthplace of Oolong and black tea, emphasizing its unique fermentation techniques and global influence [1] Industry Summary - Wuyi Mountain is recognized as the origin of black tea and Oolong tea, marking a pivotal moment in Chinese tea history during the late Ming and early Qing dynasties [1] - The fermentation techniques developed in Wuyi Mountain have been praised for their uniqueness, contributing to the global reputation of Chinese tea [1] - The article suggests that tea serves as a cultural bridge between the East and West, showcasing the blend of tradition and modernity in Chinese tea culture [1]

Core Insights - Eight Horse Tea achieved impressive results during this year's "Double 11" shopping festival, maintaining a strong growth trajectory across multiple platforms and product categories [1][2][10] Performance Highlights - Eight Horse Tea ranked first in sales for tea categories on major platforms like Tmall and JD for two consecutive years, showcasing its leading position in the industry [2] - The company dominated various tea categories, including Oolong tea for 11 years, and achieved first place in Red tea, Tieguanyin, Dahongpao, and Chenpi Gua Pian during this year's event [4] - On JD, Eight Horse Tea also secured first place in Red tea and Tieguanyin categories, reflecting its strong product appeal [6] Multi-Channel Strategy - Eight Horse Tea excelled in local lifestyle platforms, ranking first in tea categories on Meituan, Dazhong Dianping, Douyin, Taobao Flash Sale, and JD Instant Delivery during the "Double 11" event [8] - The company's success is attributed to its ability to understand consumer trends, effectively linking online engagement to offline sales, and driving traffic to over 3,700 Eight Horse chain stores [10] Innovative Retail Model - As the leading tea chain brand in China, Eight Horse Tea has developed a unique "direct sales + franchise" and "online + offline" multi-channel sales system [10] - The introduction of the "City Living Room" model transforms traditional tea stores into comprehensive spaces for product display, cultural experience, and social interaction [11] Cultural Shift in Consumption - The outstanding performance of Eight Horse Tea during "Double 11" reflects a deeper transformation in the Chinese consumer market, with a growing trend towards health-conscious and culturally rich tea consumption [15] - The shift from alcohol-centric social gatherings to tea-centric interactions signifies a change in consumer behavior and lifestyle, positioning Eight Horse Tea favorably for future market competition [15]

Core Insights - Eight Horses Tea achieved impressive results during the 2025 Double 11 shopping festival, maintaining a strong growth trajectory and leading in multiple categories across various e-commerce platforms [1][2][3] Group 1: Multi-Category and Multi-Platform Leadership - Eight Horses Tea ranked first in sales across multiple categories on major platforms like Tmall and JD, continuing its dominance in the tea industry [2] - The company has held the top position in Tmall's Oolong tea category for 11 consecutive years and achieved first place in red tea, Tieguanyin, Dahongpao, and Chenpi Gua Pian categories [2] - On JD, Eight Horses Tea also excelled, securing first place in red tea and Tieguanyin categories during the Double 11 event, highlighting its strong consumer appeal [2] Group 2: Breakthroughs in Local Life Platforms - Eight Horses Tea topped the tea category rankings on local life platforms such as Meituan, Dazhong Dianping, Douyin, and Taobao Flash Sale during the Double 11 event [3] - The company's success is attributed to its understanding of consumer trends and effective online-to-offline integration, driving traffic to over 3,700 stores nationwide [3] Group 3: Integrated Channel Development - Eight Horses Tea has established a unique "direct + franchise" and "online + offline" sales system, leveraging its extensive network of over 3,700 stores [4] - The introduction of the "City Reception Hall" model transforms traditional tea shops into comprehensive spaces for product display, cultural experiences, and social interactions [4][6] Group 4: Strong Supply Chain Support - The company is building logistics distribution centers in cities like Shenzhen, Anxi, and Zhengzhou, equipped with "dark warehouses" for 24-hour operations [9] - This supply chain capability allows for efficient order processing, with a maximum daily capacity of 13,000 orders, ensuring next-day delivery for 70% of the country [9] Group 5: Shifts in Consumer Behavior - The outstanding performance of Eight Horses Tea during Double 11 reflects a deeper transformation in the Chinese consumer market towards healthier and culturally rich tea consumption [10][12] - The trend of "meeting over tea" is becoming a new social norm, replacing traditional drinking culture with a focus on health and elegance [12]