Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Seasonal demand is weakening, but production restrictions are expected to provide support [1] - The report highlights that the overall inventory of five major steel products is 9.3 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 22.7% [5] - The total inventory at steel mills is 4.33 million tons, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 23.6% [5] - Iron ore port inventory stands at 13.83 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 6.9% [5] Price Trends - The SW Steel Index is at 2,119, with a weekly change of -0.2% and a year-to-date change of 0.8% [3] - Rebar (HRB400 20mm) price is 3,140 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.3% and a year-to-date increase of 7.9% [3] - Hot-rolled coil price is 3,097 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.1% and a year-to-date decrease of 9.5% [3] - Cold-rolled steel price is 3,640 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.8% and a year-to-date increase of 11.4% [3] Supply and Demand - The average daily pig iron output is projected to be around 230,000 tons [9] - The report indicates that the steel mills' operating rate is fluctuating, impacting overall production [12] - The apparent demand for rebar is noted to be significant, with ongoing monitoring of market conditions [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1][24]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of bottom positioning during the off-season for the steel industry [1]. - It highlights the recent trends in steel prices and inventory levels, indicating a potential for recovery [3][5]. Price Trends - The SW Steel Index is at 2,124, with a weekly decline of 0.7% and a year-to-date increase of 1.0% [3]. - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,130 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 0.9% and a year-to-date decline of 8.2% [3]. - Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3,160 CNY/ton, with a weekly drop of 2.5% and a year-to-date decrease of 7.6% [3]. Inventory Levels - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 9.31 million tons, reflecting a weekly decrease of 2.9% and a year-to-date increase of 22.8% [5]. - The total inventory at steel mills is 4.33 million tons, with a weekly decline of 10.1% and a year-to-date increase of 23.7% [5]. - Iron ore port inventory stands at 13.86 million tons, unchanged week-on-week but up 6.7% year-to-date [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be stable, with daily average pig iron production expected to maintain current levels [9][12]. - The report indicates a steady demand for rebar, with apparent demand figures showing resilience [15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the anticipation of supply-side constraints being implemented, which is expected to impact the steel industry positively [1] Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,169, with a weekly increase of 1.8% and a year-to-date increase of 3.2% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,150 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 1.6% and a year-to-date decrease of 7.6% [3] - The price of hot-rolled coil is 3,200 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.2% and a year-to-date decrease of 6.4% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 98 USD/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.1% and a year-to-date decrease of 2.0% [3] Inventory Summary - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,032 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 4.7% and a year-to-date increase of 1.36% [5] - The total inventory at steel mills is 443 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 1.6% and a year-to-date increase of 26.5% [5] - The port inventory of iron ore is 14,235 million tons, with no weekly change and a year-to-date increase of 4.2% [5] Supply and Demand Summary - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be 1,000 million tons [9] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to be around 230 million tons [9]