Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan expresses optimism for the Hang Seng Technology Index in the second half of the year, driven by domestic policy support and improving capital conditions in Hong Kong, despite uncertainties in US-China trade negotiations [1] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on two main lines of investment: 1. Alibaba-W (09988) and Kuaishou-W (01024) due to their upward trends in fundamentals and benefits from AI-related products [2] 2. Meituan-W (03690), Pinduoduo (PDD.US), and JD Group-SW (09618) for their solid long-term business models and expansion into new growth areas [3] Company-Specific Insights - **Alibaba-W**: Anticipated continued growth in its cloud business and e-commerce, with a projected 12% year-on-year increase in CMR for Q4 FY25 [2] - **Kuaishou-W**: Expected improvement in e-commerce business due to strategic adjustments by Douyin, with significant potential from the updated Keta 2.0 version [2] - **Meituan-W**: Short-term investments are aimed at solidifying market share, with long-term competitive advantages expected to be maintained through network effects in the food delivery sector [3] - **Pinduoduo**: Focus on ecosystem development may pressure short-term profits, but long-term prospects remain strong with anticipated recovery in profitability in the second half of the year [3] - **JD Group-SW**: Q1 FY25 revenue exceeded expectations, driven by user growth and strong performance in the food delivery segment [3]

事件 2025 年5 月15 日阿里巴巴披露2025 财年第四季度财报，FY2025Q4 阿里巴巴实现营收2364.54 亿元，同 比增长6.57%，Non-GAAP 净利润为298.47 亿元，同比增长22.23%。 机构：中信建投证券 研究员：崔世峰/于伯韬 核心观点 FY2025Q4 阿里巴巴实现营收2364.54 亿元，同比增长6.57%，Non-GAAP 净利润为298.47 亿元，同比增 长22.23%。本季度淘天主业进一步修复，利润保持正增长，CMR 收入重回两位数增长。 云业务方面，收入增速进一步提升，但margin 端环比略有回落，主要受一季度降价压力影响。本季度 CapEx 低于预期，主要受海外高端芯片出口审查趋严等影响，近期华为昇腾禁令对阿里等国内CSP 大厂 的影响仍需观察。 本季度淘天主业（CMR）超预期修复，主要受益于千六软件服务费和全站推带动下的货币化率提升， 以及GMV 增速环比进一步回升。云智能集团，本季度营收301.27 亿元，同比增长17.71%，其中AI 相关 收入连续7 个季度三位数同比增长，本季度经调整EBITA24.20 亿元，同比增长69%，对应利润率 8.0% ...