美国的假日购物季即将来临，但今年购物季对于当地民众来说可能并不那么美好。 通货膨胀和关税导致假日购物季正面临前所未有的冲击：从圣诞树短缺到礼品价格上涨，今年的节 日消费恐远不如预期。 关税推高物价 今年，美国总统特朗普实施的一系列关税措施导致物价上涨，消费压力可能会更大。 美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）指出，尽管"今年迄今为止，关税的影响还比较有限，但预 计关税将在假日购物季到来之际推高物价"。 美国网贷平台Lending Tree表示，关税预计将给每位消费者带来约132美元的额外成本。按消费品类 来看，节日电子产品受关税影响最大，平均每位消费者需额外支付186美元；服装或配饰类商品平均每 位消费者将多支付82美元；个人护理用品、美容产品和玩具，平均每位消费者将多支付14美元；食品和 糖果的购买者预计平均将多支付12美元。 "对大多数美国人来说，节日期间多花132美元可不是小数目"，Lending Tree首席消费者金融分析师 马特·舒尔茨表示，"虽然这笔钱可能不算什么惊天动地的大支出，但会对许多家庭产生切实的影响。这 可能会促使人们减少今年的送礼支出，或者导致他们背负额外的债务。而这是任何人都不愿面对 ...

Core Insights - The holiday shopping season in the U.S. is expected to be overshadowed by rising prices, trade tensions, and issues related to food assistance and healthcare, leading to significantly higher consumer costs compared to last year [1] Food Prices - The average cost of preparing a holiday meal for 12 people is projected to reach $362.80, a 5% increase from last year's $344.61 [2] - The average price of Thanksgiving turkey is expected to hit $2.05 per pound, resulting in a cost of approximately $31 for a 15-pound turkey, which is a 25% increase from the previous year [2] - Prices for roasted beef and steak have risen by 18.4% and 16.6% year-over-year, respectively [2] - Candy prices have increased by 8% to 10% due to a record shortage of cocoa beans, with tariffs on cocoa-producing countries further driving up chocolate prices [3] - Since January 2020, food prices in the U.S. have risen by approximately 26% [3] Holiday Decorations - Prices for holiday decorations are expected to rise by about 15% due to supply chain bottlenecks and tariff policies [4] - The National Tree Company has raised its product prices by 10%, attributing $6 to $7 million in additional costs to tariffs [4] - Consumers are expected to bear a significant portion of the increased costs, with estimates suggesting an additional $40 billion in holiday shopping costs due to new tariffs [4] Retail Sector Concerns - The ongoing decline in box sales has raised concerns about the performance of U.S. retailers during the holiday shopping season [5] - The third quarter saw the lowest shipment volume of corrugated boxes since 2015, with a year-over-year decline of 8.7% reported by Smurfit Kappa [6] - The weak demand for boxes, which are crucial for product transportation and display, indicates that retailers are adopting a more conservative approach to inventory and sales expectations for the holiday season [6]

Core Insights - The holiday shopping season in the U.S. is expected to be impacted by tariffs, potentially costing consumers an additional $40.6 billion in 2024, which translates to an extra burden on holiday spending [1] Economic Impact - Tariffs were implemented by the Trump administration in April, contributing to persistent inflation rates between 2.5% and 3% [3] - Economists note that while inflation indicators like CPI and PCE are not skyrocketing, tariffs have prevented prices from decreasing, keeping inflation elevated [3] Corporate Response - Companies initially absorbed tariff costs by stockpiling inventory and compressing profit margins, but as holiday demand increases, they are now passing these costs onto consumers [5] - According to U.S. Bank economist Aditya Bhave, consumers are expected to bear 50% to 70% of the total tariff costs, with the remainder absorbed by businesses [6] Federal Reserve Concerns - The Federal Reserve aims to stabilize core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 2%, but this target has not been met since March 2021, with current rates remaining high [8] - U.S. Bank predicts that tariffs could increase the core PCE inflation rate by 0.5 percentage points, with September's inflation rate at 2.9% when tariffs are included, compared to 2.4% without [8] Consumer Sentiment - Rising prices for everyday items, such as coffee and furniture, are evident, with clothing prices increasing by 0.7% in September, affecting consumer perception of inflation [10] - Analysts from TD Cowen emphasize that even minor price increases in low-weight items can significantly impact consumer confidence, as frequent price changes create a more immediate perception of inflation [12] Seasonal Product Impact - Seasonal products, like artificial Christmas trees, exemplify how high tariffs can influence consumer perceptions of inflation during the holiday season [13]

Core Viewpoint - As Christmas approaches, U.S. consumers and businesses face unprecedented supply challenges due to tariffs impacting the availability of holiday decorations, with imports down approximately 25% compared to previous years [1][3]. Group 1: Import Trends - National Christmas Tree Company reported a significant decline in imports, with August imports down 58% year-over-year and September down over 70% [3]. - October is the last critical month for imports, and the current decline suggests a bleak outlook for the Christmas retail season [3]. Group 2: Pricing and Consumer Impact - The company has raised prices by about 10% due to increased tariff costs, leading to higher holiday expenses for consumers [3]. - U.S. consumers are expected to bear over 55% of the tariff costs, while businesses will absorb 22% and foreign exporters will take on 18% [5]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Production - Over 60% of National Christmas Tree Company's imports come from China, with 45% of its production bases located there [4]. - The company is exploring automation and nearshore production to alleviate pressure, but domestic production costs are prohibitively high, making it economically unfeasible [4]. Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The implementation of tariffs has led to an average price increase of about 4% for imported goods and 2% for domestic products [4]. - Concerns are rising about demand softening as consumers struggle with rising prices, with reports indicating a 60% reduction in orders from physical retailers and local hardware stores [7].

Core Insights - Alibaba's cross-border e-commerce platform AliExpress announced the timing for its overseas Double 11 and Black Friday events, starting from November 8 for pre-sales and running from November 11 to 19 for Double 11 sales, followed by Black Friday from November 20 to December 3, providing a month-long sales opportunity for cross-border merchants [1] Group 1 - AliExpress will focus on "commission incentives + overseas warehousing + brand expansion," offering up to 7% commission on sales for quality POP merchants, with some merchants already earning up to $30,000 [1] - The "overseas warehousing" model has expanded to over 30 countries, significantly increasing local inventory levels, which is crucial for large items that are not suitable for air freight or have long cross-border shipping times [1] - The platform reports that over 50% of the transaction volume for large items like furniture and appliances comes from the "overseas warehousing" model [1] Group 2 - AliExpress has introduced a "Brand+" channel to help brands achieve higher sales at half the cost [1] - The platform has also launched official logistics in some countries, reducing local delivery times by 50% [1] - At least 100,000 artificial Christmas trees are being shipped overseas to join the "overseas warehousing" model during the Double 11 and Black Friday periods, setting a new high for holiday inventory of large items [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights that AliExpress is preparing for the upcoming Double Eleven and Black Friday sales by shipping at least 100,000 artificial Christmas trees overseas, marking a record high in inventory for holiday large goods [1] - AliExpress's overseas hosting service now covers 30 countries, with over 50% of the transaction volume in heavy goods categories such as home and appliances coming from overseas hosting [1] - The promotional activities for AliExpress's overseas Double Eleven and Black Friday sales will begin on November 8 and run until December 3, with the main sales event starting on November 11 [1]

（央视财经《第一时间》）美国消费者新闻与商业频道CNBC日前报道，受美国政府关税政策影响，在今年年底的圣诞节传统消费旺季，人造圣诞树 等节庆用品的供应将面临明显短缺。 分析指出，受劳动力成本制约，人造圣诞树、彩灯以及装饰花环等商品在美国生产的成本较高。与在国外生产相比，一棵美国制造的圣诞树可能要贵 上2.5倍到3倍。 转载请注明央视财经 据CNBC报道，国民圣诞树公司是美国主要的人造圣诞树进口商。公司负责人在接受采访时称，受特朗普政府关税政策影响，该公司今年以来整体进 口量下滑了25%，其中，8月和9月的进口量同比降幅分别达到58%和70%。该公司指出，这导致圣诞树库存有限，在今年年底的圣诞季，肯定会出现 供应短缺的局面。 除了人造圣诞树，彩灯和花环等装饰品也同样会受到影响。与此同时，由于关税导致成本增加，该公司还计划将商品售价提高10%。目前，包括国民 圣诞树公司在内的多家企业正与美国财政部和美国贸易代表办公室就应对节日期间商品供应问题进行商讨。 编辑：潘煦 ...

据CNBC报道，国民圣诞树公司是美国主要的人造圣诞树进口商。公司负责人在接受采访时称，受特朗 普政府关税政策影响，该公司今年以来整体进口量下滑了25%，其中，8月和9月的进口量同比降幅分别 达到58%和70%。 该公司指出，这导致圣诞树库存有限，在今年年底的圣诞季，肯定会出现供应短缺的局面。除了人造圣 诞树，彩灯和花环等装饰品也同样会受到影响。与此同时，由于关税导致成本增加，该公司还计划将商 品售价提高10%。目前，包括国民圣诞树公司在内的多家企业、正与美国财政部和美国贸易代表办公室 就应对节日期间商品供应问题进行商讨。 分析指出，受劳动力成本制约，人造圣诞树、彩灯以及装饰花环等商品在美国生产的成本较高。与在国 外生产相比，一棵美国制造的圣诞树可能要贵上2.5倍到3倍。 （文章来源：央视网） ...

Group 1 - The core issue facing the U.S. retail industry is the uncertainty caused by fluctuating tariffs, which disrupts the planning and ordering processes for holiday merchandise [1][2][4] - Retailers are experiencing significant challenges in managing their inventory and supply chains, with companies like Balsam Hill having to drastically reduce their holiday product offerings due to tariff adjustments [1][2] - The toy industry is particularly affected, with manufacturers delaying production schedules and struggling to stock up on holiday toys in time for the season [2][4] Group 2 - Consumers are likely to face two main problems this holiday season: product shortages and rising prices, as many retailers are cutting back on holiday goods to avoid high tariffs [4][5] - A recent survey by the National Retail Federation indicates that 67% of consumers have started back-to-school shopping, the highest percentage since tracking began in 2018, with many expressing concerns about potential price increases due to tariffs [4][5] - The economic uncertainty is leading consumers to seek out summer promotions and more affordable brands, with over half of respondents in a Deloitte survey planning to cut back on discretionary spending to accommodate rising prices [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the urgency and challenges faced by U.S. retailers in preparing for the upcoming holiday season, particularly Christmas, due to tariff fluctuations and reliance on imports from China [1][2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Retailers and Import Challenges - U.S. retailers are under pressure to place orders early for holiday products, with some needing to start production as early as May or June to avoid empty shelves during peak shopping periods [1][4]. - A significant portion of holiday inventory, such as artificial Christmas trees and decorations, is sourced from China, with 95% of Aldik Home's inventory coming from Chinese suppliers [1][2]. - Tariff changes have created uncertainty for U.S. retailers, with potential increases in costs leading to fears of inflated prices for consumers, such as a Christmas tree potentially rising from $1,000 to $2,500 [5][6]. Group 2: Tariff Adjustments and Market Response - In May, a temporary agreement was reached to lower tariffs by 115%, providing some relief to U.S. retailers as they prepare for the holiday season [4][6]. - The current tariff rate for small goods is approximately 30%, which is similar to levels before April, allowing for a recovery in export volumes to 60%-70% of previous levels [6][12]. - The 90-day tariff window allows U.S. retailers to place orders without incurring excessive tariffs, which is crucial for maintaining inventory levels for the Christmas season [6][7]. Group 3: Impact on Cross-Border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce companies are experiencing significant impacts from tariff changes, with larger firms able to absorb costs better than smaller companies [10][12]. - The cancellation of favorable tariff policies for small packages has raised concerns among U.S. consumers regarding the final prices of imported goods, as tariffs on small packages have increased from 0% to 54% [9][10]. - Smaller e-commerce firms are struggling with reduced sales, highlighting the disparity in how different-sized companies are affected by tariff fluctuations [10][12]. Group 4: Product-Specific Insights - The article notes that while Christmas-related products are in high demand, other categories like toys are seeing increased inquiries post-tariff adjustments, although order placements remain cautious [12]. - The competitive landscape in the Christmas goods market is intensifying, with manufacturers offering significant discounts and promotional strategies to attract buyers [12][13]. - Innovations in product quality, such as enhanced details in Christmas decorations, are being pursued by manufacturers to differentiate themselves in a challenging market [12].