隆盛科技、豪能股份、美湖股份投资逻辑重申 20250622 特斯拉机器人研发基于第一性原理，追求通用解决方案，需大量投入且 迭代周期长；国内企业则侧重细分场景的垂直应用，落地速度可能更快， 隆盛科技、豪能股份、美湖股份等受益于国产替代。 隆盛科技通过收购威汉智能，增强了资金实力和客户资源协同效应，并 在机器人视觉产品方面布局全面，尤其在斜坡关节总成和灵巧手等产品 上。公司正积极与客户对接，推进定点、小批量、大批量生产。 豪能股份同步器业务领先，差速器业务受益于新能源汽车市场快速增长， 行星齿轮业务在人形机器人传动领域具有成本和抗冲击性优势，订单及 客户开拓情况良好，业绩增速超预期。 湘油泵在传统油泵领域市场地位稳固，同时布局人形机器人领域，以谐 波传动系统为核心打造关节总成，产业链布局完善。入股女娲机器人， 显示出公司在新兴技术领域的拓展潜力。 英伟达通过虚拟世界仿真平台加速 AI 训练和迭代，赋能机器人研发端， 并与富士康等合作，推动机器人更快应用于生产线，提高生产效率和技 术创新。 Q&A 机器人板块近期的市场表现如何？有哪些影响因素？ 机器人板块自 5 月上中旬开始调整，至今已经经历了较长时间的波动。上 ...

Company Overview - The company, Sensata Technologies, is a global leader in automotive exterior and body structural components, operating in 14 countries with 77 factories and 4 product lines (plastic parts, aluminum parts, metal trims, battery boxes) [1] - It serves over 70 automotive brands, including BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Tesla, and has undergone three development phases: initial nurturing, lightweight transformation and globalization, and innovative development [1] - In 2020, the company restructured into four major business units and has become one of the largest suppliers of battery boxes and body structural components globally [1] Operational Turning Point - Capital expenditure is slowing down, indicating a clear trend of profit recovery [2] - The traditional main business has solidified its technical and customer advantages [3] - The metal trim segment is projected to generate revenue of 5.49 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 27.8% [3] New Business Development - The company has formed a strategic partnership with Zhiyuan Robotics, focusing on smart exteriors, electronic skin, integrated joint assemblies, and wireless charging, which may create new revenue growth opportunities [1] Financial Forecast - Revenue is expected to reach 27.1 billion yuan in 2025, 32.1 billion yuan in 2026, and 38.0 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit projected at 2.72 billion yuan, 3.19 billion yuan, and 3.74 billion yuan respectively [2] Capital Expenditure and Profitability - Capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is expected to drop to 8% in 2024, the lowest in a decade, leading to positive free cash flow of 778 million yuan [3] - Gross margin is forecasted to rise to 28.94% in 2024, with net margin at 10.26% and ROE at 11.97%, benefiting from improved capacity utilization and cost control [3] Business Structure Optimization - Battery box revenue is projected at 5.34 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 23.1% of total revenue, while traditional businesses (metal trims, plastics, aluminum) will maintain a combined revenue share of 70.3% [3] - The plastic segment is expected to generate 5.87 billion yuan in revenue with a gross margin of 25.1%, expanding into smart exterior integrated products [3] - The aluminum segment is projected to achieve revenue of 4.92 billion yuan with a gross margin of 33.3%, recognized by major clients like BMW and Tesla [3] Key Growth Drivers - The battery box business is expected to experience significant growth, particularly in the European market, with projected revenue of 5.338 billion yuan in 2024, driven by EU carbon emission policies [3] - The company has a competitive advantage in technology with its extrusion molding solution, which offers better airtightness and lower iteration costs compared to integrated die-casting [3] - Domestic market share is expected to rise to 15%-19% in 2023, positioning the company in the first tier, with localized operations reducing costs and fostering deep collaborations with clients like BMW and Daimler [3] - The gross margin for battery boxes is anticipated to improve to 21.43% in 2024, as capacity utilization increases, further enhancing profitability [3]

人形机器人板块观点汇报 20250507 关节总成环节的主要公司表现如何？ 在关节总成环节，我们重点关注三花、拓普、恒立液压、银轮股份和正裕科技。 这些公司的共同点是大部分在北美市场敞口较大，受到了关税扰动影响。拓普 集团和恒立液压由于下游宏观经济影响，整体业绩增速有所放缓。然而，正裕 科技表现亮眼，其主业模具业务相比其他企业有强有力的修复，并且滚柱丝杠 业务获得上海的一亿订单，为国产机器人带来利润落地。 减速器环节有哪些值得关注的公司及其财务表现？ 减速器环节包括谐波减速器和 RV 减速器，共有约 15 家公司参与。蓝黛科技和 福晶精工等企业在 24 年的利润增速超过 100%。然而，大部分减速器企业 24 年的利润增幅基本维持在-20%到 20%之间，中位数约为 4%到 6%。斜坡减速 器产业化落地复杂度较高，生产工艺变更以及成本降低等因素使得其逻辑更加 复杂。 摘要 • 双林股份在人形机器人领域取得进展，2024 年业绩增长 500%，2025 年 一季度增长 105.49%，受益于丝杠带来的机器人利润落地，吸引基金投 资者关注，主业也有明显修复。 • 关节总成环节公司如拓普集团和恒立液压受宏观经济影响 ...

市场表现：本周（4.28-5.02）我们构建的国信人形机器人指数上涨3.21%，强于沪深300 指数3.64pct， 强于上证综合指数3.7pct，年初至今上涨16.5%。 投资建议：总成环节：拓普集团、三花智控；减速器环节：双环传动、精锻科技等；其他相关：银轮股 份、均胜电子、瑞鹄模具、美力科技等。 行业动态：1）奇瑞220 台人形机器人首次全球批量交付；2）宇树直播人形机器人长跑，118 分钟跑 13.2 公里；3）优必选正式签署小批量人形机器人采购合同；4）灵初智能发布Psi R1 大模型；5）联合 包裹服务（UPS）与Figure AI 洽谈部署人形机器人；6）数字华夏发布全球首款双形态人形机器人；7） 魔法原子、天奇自动化等与无锡政府达成战略合作，人形机器人即将"上岗"；政府新闻：1）习近平总 书记前往上海考察，强调加快建成具有全球影响力的科技创新高地，智元代表具身智能行业汇报进展； 2）上海具身智能基金正式注册成立；3）广东省人民政府办公厅引发《广东省进一步激发市场主体活力 加快建设现代化产业体系的若干措施》；4）广西发布2025 年首批16 个"人工智能+"开放场景；融资动 态：1)因时机器人完 ...

事项： 公司披露2024 年财报及2025 年一季报，2024 公司实现收入188.5 亿（同比+9.3%），实现归母净利润 12.5 亿（同比+10.6%），2025 一季度实现收入48.5亿（同比+3.5%），实现归母净利润4.0 亿（同比 +11.5%），2024 年度分红预案为每10 股派发现金红利1.5 元（含税）。 平安观点： 国内收入增幅较高，海外控费显成效，盈利能力保持持续提升态势。2024年公司在计提资产减值损失3 亿的情况下，归母净利润略低于我们前期预测。2024 年毛利率更高的国内收入同比实现正增长，毛利 率相对较低的海外业务收入基本持平，2024 年公司整体毛利率同比保持增长态势，各项费用控制较 好，其中销售费用绝对额下降，研发费用率及管理费用率下降，2024 年全年公司净利率达到6.6%， 1Q25 公司净利率进一步提升至8.2%，盈利能力向好预计主要是由于毛利率更高的国内收入占比提升及 海外控费显成效所致。 轻量化及空气悬架收入增幅较高。公司传统主业冷却系统/密封系统/智能底盘之橡胶业务经营表现总体 稳定，近年拓展的高成长业务板块为空气悬架及轻量化业务，其中空气悬架业务增幅及毛利率 ...

0 1 事 件 概 述 公司披露 2024 年年度报告和 2025 年第一季度报告： 1 ） 2024 年度实现营收 188.54 亿 元 ， 同 比 +9.33% ；归母净利润 12.52 亿元，同比 +10.63% ；扣非归母净利润 10.75 亿元，同比 +10.06% ； 2 ） 2025Q1 营收 48.54 亿元，同比 +3.45% ，环比 +11.37% ；归母净利润 4.03 亿元，同比 +11.52% ，环 比 +101.46% ；扣非归母净利润 3.67 亿元，同比 +21.43% ，环比 +189.02% 。 0 2 分 析 判 断 ► 2024 圆满收官 2025Q1 符合预期 1 ）收入端： 公司 2024Q4 营收 43.59 亿元，同比 -2.50% ，环比 -9.68% ； 2025Q1 营收 48.54 亿 元，同比 +3.45% ，环比 +11.37% ，在手订单释放带动营收稳健增长； 2 ）利润端： 公司 2024Q4 归母净 利润 2.00 亿元，同比 -21.84% ，环比 -40.48% ，同环比下滑系减值影响； 2025Q1 归母净利润 4.03 亿 元，同比 + ...

机器人布局旋转关节总成、业务率先卡位头部客户。公司具有零部件机械加工及机电一体化能力，已积 累2年+机器人零部件研发经验，平移现有编码器、电机热管理、电磁阀等技术，将拓展谐波减速器和 行星减速器两个平台的电关节产品，整合减速器、智能控制及电机技术，编码器、电机电控等部件全部 自制，公司与智元成立合资公司深度绑定，计划供应电关节模组，此外公司多家车企核心客户均有机器 人计划，后续有望导入车企自研机器人供应链。 费用控制良好、资本开支大幅增加。公司24年期间费用6.2亿元，同比+15.3%，费用率7.3%，同 比-2pct，25Q1期间费用1.7亿元，同环比+18.9%/-4.7%，费用率6.2%，同环比-3.2/-0.6pct；24年经营性 净现金流5.8亿元，同比+88.6%，经营性现金流-1.5亿元，同环比-233.3%/-179.3%；24年资本开支8.1亿 元，同比-32.3%，25年Q1资本开支3亿元，同环比+93.7%/+96.9%；25年Q1末存货9.9亿元，较年初 +14.5%。 东吴证券股份有限公司曾朵红,阮巧燕,岳斯瑶近期对富临精工（300432）进行研究并发布了研究报告 《2024年报及2 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 18.854 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.252 billion yuan, up 10.63% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.854 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.37%, with a net profit of 403 million yuan, up 11.52% year-on-year and 101.46% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] Revenue Performance - In Q4 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 4.359 billion yuan, down 2.50% year-on-year and 9.68% quarter-on-quarter, while Q1 2025 showed a recovery with a revenue of 4.854 billion yuan [2] - The company’s order backlog has contributed to stable revenue growth, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [2] Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was 24.52%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points year-on-year and 2.07 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while Q1 2025 saw a gross profit margin of 23.32%, up 0.90 percentage points year-on-year but down 1.20 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net profit for Q4 2024 was 200 million yuan, down 21.84% year-on-year and 40.48% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to impairment impacts [2] Cost Structure - The company’s expense ratios for Q4 2024 were 1.54% for sales, 5.89% for management, 3.98% for R&D, and 0.87% for financial expenses, showing a mixed trend in year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter changes [2] - In Q1 2025, the expense ratios were 2.37% for sales, 5.51% for management, 5.04% for R&D, and 0.92% for financial expenses, reflecting normal fluctuations [2] Business Development - The company is actively expanding in the new energy vehicle sector, focusing on intelligent chassis systems and has achieved significant order growth in thermal management, lightweighting, and air suspension systems [3] - The company has signed multiple strategic cooperation agreements to expand its humanoid robot product line, indicating a strong commitment to this emerging market [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 21.68 billion, 24.39 billion, and 27.69 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.65 billion, 1.89 billion, and 2.17 billion yuan respectively [4] - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position in the automotive sector while advancing in the robotics field, potentially leading to increased performance and valuation [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows high profit margins, with a revenue of 3.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5% [7] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 20-30% in the structural components sector for 2025, potentially reaching around 15 billion yuan [7] - The company has a strong cash flow, with operating cash flow of 680 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 198.9% [7] - The company is well-positioned for future growth with its innovative product offerings, including a new lightweight harmonic reducer made from Peek material [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to reach 10.51 billion yuan in 2023, growing to 20.07 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.80% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.20 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.79 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 20.00% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 4.39 yuan in 2023 to 10.20 yuan in 2027 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 134.50 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 36.78 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.63 for 2023, which is expected to decrease to 13.19 by 2027 [1][5]