来源：看懂经济 在这份成绩单中，三大结构性亮点尤为突出： 一是Q4单季总资产暴增4204亿元，占全年增量超七成； 二是存款增速7.18%显著跑赢贷款增速，低成本负债拓展成效显现； 三是科技、绿色、制造业贷款占比超50%，服务新质生产力下结构调整取得突破。 在营收净利"双增"的底色上，兴业银行展现出"规模稳、结构优、风险控"的韧性。 | | | | 单位:人民币百万元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025 年 | 2024 年 | 增减变动幅度 | | 项目 | (未经审计) | (经审计) | (%) | | 营业收入 | 212, 741 | 212, 226 | 0. 24 | | 营业利润 | 89, 948 | 87, 197 | 3.15 | | 利润息额 | 89, 973 | 87. 120 | 3.27 | | 归属于母公司股东的净利润 | 77, 469 | 77, 205 | 0. 34 | | 归属于母公司股东扣除非经 | 77,064 | 76.772 | 0. 38 | | 常性损益的净利润 | | | | | 基本每股收益(元) | 3. 46 ...

增加分红频次，持续回馈股东。1 月20 日公司召开临时股东会，审议通过中期分红，拟向全体普通股股 东每10 股派发现金股利人民币5.65元（税前），预计派发现金股利119.57 亿元，根据2025 年半年报披 露归属于普通股股东的当期净利润398.27 亿元，测算中期分红比例达到30.02%。 盈利预测与投资建议：预计公司26/27 年归母净利润增速分别为3.12%/4.83%，EPS 分别为3.58/3.77 元/ 股，当前股价对应25/26 年PE 分别为5.47X/5.21X，对应26/27 年PB 分别为0.49X/0.46X，综合考虑历史 PB（LF）估值中枢和基本面情况，给予公司最新财报每股净资产0.60 倍PB，对应合理价值22.99 元/ 股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：（1）经济增长超预期下滑；（2）存款成本上升超预期；（3）国际经济及金融风险超预 期；（4）政策调控力度超预期。 核心观点： 兴业银行披露2025 年度业绩快报，25A 营收利润增速双正。25A 营业收入同比增长0.24%，增速较 25Q1-3 环比回升2.1PCT，归母净利润同比增长0.3%，增速较25Q1-3 环比回升0 ...

1月20日，兴业银行股东会通过中期分红议案，将向全体普通股股东派发现金股利人民币5.65元（每10 股，税前），预计派发现金股利119.57亿元。 2026年1月21日晚间，兴业银行发布2025年业绩快报。截至2025年年末，该行总资产突破11万亿元达 11.09万亿元，较2024年年末增长5.57%；实现营业收入2127.41亿元，同比增长0.24%；利润总额899.73 亿元，同比增长3.27%；归属母公司股东的净利润为774.69亿元，同比增长0.34%。 截至2025年年末，该行各项贷款余额较2024年年末增长3.70%至5.95万亿元，其中科技金融贷款突破 1.12万亿元、绿色金融贷款达到1.1万亿元、制造业贷款接近万亿元；各项存款余额较2024年年末增长 7.18%至5.93万亿元。 （文章来源：中国经营报） ...

从资产负债结构来看，兴业银行立足自身优势，扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"，深化客户经营，积极拓展 低成本负债，结构优化成效显著。截至2025年末，各项贷款余额较上年末增长3.70%至5.95万亿元，其 中科技金融贷款突破1.12万亿元、绿色金融贷款达到1.1万亿元、制造业贷款接近万亿元；各项存款余额 较上年末增长7.18%至5.93万亿元，其中低成本负债持续拓展，负债稳定性进一步增强。 在资产负债合理扩张的同时，兴业银行坚持统筹发展与安全，改革完善全面风险管理体系，资产质量保 持稳健，风险抵御能力持续增强。房地产、地方政府平台、信用卡"三大领域"风险走向收敛。截至报告 期末，不良贷款率1.08%，较上年末基本保持稳定；拨备覆盖率228.41%，继续保持较高水平。 昨日，兴业银行股东会以99.94%的高票通过中期分红议案，将向全体普通股股东派发现金股利人民币 5.65元(每10股，税前)，预计派发现金股利119.57亿元，回馈广大投资者。 2026年1月21日晚间，兴业银行发布2025年业绩快报。截至2025年末，总资产突破11万亿达11.09万亿 元，较上年末增长5.57%；营收、净利润连续两年正增长，实现营业收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Export-Import Bank of China plans to support foreign trade by issuing over 1.2 trillion yuan in loans by 2025, focusing on enhancing quality and stabilizing volume in foreign trade [1] Group 1: Financial Support and Loan Distribution - The Export-Import Bank will allocate over 60% of its total loan issuance to foreign trade, emphasizing its role in policy-based finance [1] - New loans for the manufacturing sector are projected to reach nearly 860 billion yuan, with over 540 billion yuan designated for medium to long-term loans, accounting for more than 60% of the manufacturing loans [1] Group 2: Industry Focus and Strategic Areas - The bank will prioritize credit resources towards advanced manufacturing industries, including shipbuilding, marine engineering, and rail transportation equipment [1] - Support will also extend to emerging industries such as synthetic biology and new materials, as well as future industries like quantum computing and humanoid robotics [1] Group 3: Key Projects and Financial Tools - The bank aims to utilize new policy-based financial tools to support projects in key areas such as the digital economy and artificial intelligence [1] - There will be a focus on addressing financial needs in fundamental research, technological breakthroughs, and the transformation of achievements, particularly for key products like ships and new energy vehicles [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huishang Bank celebrates its 20th anniversary, highlighting its commitment to serving the local economy and society while achieving significant growth and development in the banking sector [1][4]. Group 1: Historical Development - Established in December 2005, Huishang Bank was formed through the integration of local commercial banks and credit cooperatives, becoming the first bank of its kind in China [4]. - The bank went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in November 2013, marking a significant milestone as the first city commercial bank in Central China to list [5]. - In 2020, Huishang Bank successfully acquired four branches of the former Baoshang Bank, demonstrating its commitment to national financial stability [5]. Group 2: Economic Contributions - Huishang Bank has provided over 30 trillion yuan in financial support to Anhui Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with total assets reaching 2.3 trillion yuan and loans exceeding 1 trillion yuan [8]. - The bank has significantly contributed to the local economy, with loans to the manufacturing sector exceeding 160 billion yuan and support for the new energy vehicle industry amounting to 153.1 billion yuan [6]. - It has also focused on green finance, with a green credit balance of nearly 160 billion yuan, becoming one of the first banks to sign a declaration supporting biodiversity [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Over the past 20 years, Huishang Bank's assets have grown over 45 times, with deposits and loans increasing by 28 times and 35 times, respectively [8]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio has improved to below 1%, significantly better than the industry average, while its core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stands at 9.62% [9]. - Huishang Bank ranks 101st in the Global 1000 Banks list, a significant rise of 672 places since 2008, and is recognized as the 23rd largest bank in China [9]. Group 4: Innovation and Digital Transformation - The bank is actively pursuing digital transformation, with technology investments exceeding 4% of revenue and a total of 3.65 billion yuan invested over the past three years [12]. - Huishang Bank has developed a comprehensive service network with 474 branches and 505 self-service areas, enhancing its regional presence [11]. - It has introduced innovative financial products, including the first science and technology bonds in the country, showcasing its commitment to innovation [13]. Group 5: Governance and Corporate Culture - The bank emphasizes high-quality governance and has established a robust supervisory system to ensure compliance and accountability [14]. - Huishang Bank integrates party leadership into its governance framework, enhancing its operational effectiveness and cultural cohesion [15]. - The workforce is highly educated, with over 94% of employees holding a bachelor's degree or higher, fostering a culture of excellence and innovation [15]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Huishang Bank aims to align with Anhui's development goals, focusing on key areas such as technological innovation and green industries [16]. - The bank is committed to providing comprehensive financial solutions that meet customer needs while maintaining a strong focus on risk management and compliance [17]. - As it enters its next phase, Huishang Bank seeks to solidify its position as a leading financial institution in China, contributing to the modernization of Anhui Province [17].

Group 1: Credit Momentum Analysis - Credit growth is expected to continue a slight downward trend, supported by new infrastructure, new industrialization, and technology finance [5][10] - New infrastructure loans are anticipated to rebound, with structural adjustments continuing, as new infrastructure takes on momentum [5][10] - Manufacturing loans are expected to maintain resilience, with a market space of 10 trillion yuan over five years for traditional industry upgrades [5][10] - Technology finance loans are likely to sustain high growth, with high-tech enterprise loans currently only accounting for about 10% of total loans, indicating room for improvement [5][10] Group 2: Bank Revenue and Profitability - Interest income is expected to recover, leading to a projected 2.5% year-on-year increase in revenue for listed banks in 2026, with net profit expected to rise by 2.3% [5][10] - The net interest margin is projected to decline by 2.5 basis points in 2026, but the decline is expected to be significantly smaller than in 2025 [5][10] - Non-interest income is expected to see growth, particularly from wealth management fees, as deposit migration continues [5][10] Group 3: Funding Analysis - The estimated total investment from insurance funds, mutual funds, and wealth management into the banking sector is projected to be 224.4 billion yuan, potentially driving a 7.3% increase in the sector [5][10] - Insurance funds are expected to contribute 125 billion yuan to the banking sector, leading to a 4.1% upward potential [5][10] - Mutual funds are projected to bring in an additional 254 billion yuan from active funds and 706 billion yuan from passive funds [5][10] Group 4: Asset Quality - Overall asset quality remains stable, with corporate loans being continuously optimized while retail risks are gradually revealing [5][10] - The non-performing loan ratio for retail loans is 1.27%, showing a slight increase compared to the beginning of the year, but the growth rate remains stable [5][10] - The current high loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for mortgages is estimated to be between 1.9% and 4.1%, indicating manageable risk levels [5][10] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality regional city commercial banks and high-dividend stocks as dual investment lines [5][10] - The banking sector is expected to maintain strong certainty, with a stable return on equity (ROE) projected at 8% by 2028 [5][10] - Recommended banks include Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Qilu Bank for their high ROE and resilience [5][10]

Core Insights - The report highlights that Jiangsu province has achieved significant financial growth, with a social financing scale increase of 2.99 trillion yuan, ranking first in the nation [1] - The province's banking sector maintains a low non-performing loan ratio of 0.82%, indicating a stable financial environment [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, Jiangsu's new loans in both domestic and foreign currencies reached 2.31 trillion yuan, also the highest in the country [1] - Loans to the manufacturing sector, technology enterprises, green projects, and small and micro enterprises have seen year-to-date growth rates of 11.1%, 16.2%, 22.9%, and 11% respectively [1] - Non-financial enterprises (excluding state-owned enterprises) issued bonds totaling 1.15 trillion yuan [1] - The province has seen the establishment of 24 new domestic listed companies, leading the nation, with 23 of these in strategic emerging industries [1] Financial Institutions and Services - Jiangsu has 187 legal financial institutions and over 1,500 various local financial organizations [2] - The province is set to have 13 banks listed in the top 1,000 global banks by 2025, leading the country [2] - The government financing guarantee system has been enhanced, with a recorded scale of 137.3 billion yuan in the national financing guarantee fund, maintaining the top position nationally [2] - The provincial comprehensive financial service platform has assisted 74,000 enterprises in obtaining credit worth 447.9 billion yuan [2] Financial Reforms and Innovations - The establishment of the Jiangsu National Financial Investment Group and Jiangsu Rural Commercial Bank has optimized the layout of state-owned financial capital [2] - The province has initiated the first credit enhancement company in East China to support bond financing for small and medium-sized technology enterprises [2] - The strategic emerging industry fund cluster has accelerated development, with a total scale exceeding 100 billion yuan [2] - Jiangsu has been approved to conduct a national-level pilot for a comprehensive intellectual property financial ecosystem [2] Risk Management and Consumer Protection - Jiangsu has implemented policies to optimize the financial ecosystem and promote the creation of financial ecological counties [3] - The province has established 111 financial dispute mediation service points to enhance consumer rights protection [3] - Efforts to strengthen financial support for local debt risk resolution and assist private enterprises in financial distress have been emphasized [3] - A reward mechanism for reporting illegal fundraising activities has been introduced to maintain a strict crackdown on illegal financial activities [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Banking Sector - **Forecast Year**: 2026 Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Loan Structure Predictions for 2026**: - Real estate loans are expected to maintain a stable proportion - Manufacturing loans will benefit from high-end manufacturing and industrial upgrades - Technology finance loans are anticipated to grow significantly but come with risks - Wealth management focusing on high-net-worth clients is identified as a major growth area [1][3][4] 2. **Financial Policy Focus for 2026**: - The core of financial policy will support the development of new productive forces, with a focus on technology finance - A bottom-line thinking approach will be maintained to prevent systemic financial risks, with potential policy easing if economic or real estate markets face pressure [4][5] 3. **Investment Opportunities in Banking**: - Bank stocks are characterized by weak cyclical attributes, expected to continue in 2026 - High-quality regional rural commercial banks, large banks, and banks with a significant proportion of high-net-worth clients are seen as more competitive in technology, manufacturing, and wealth management sectors [6] 4. **Infrastructure Loan Outlook for 2026**: - Infrastructure loans are expected to rebound, supported by a 500 billion policy financial tool and the rapid growth of new infrastructure projects like clean energy [7] 5. **Manufacturing Loan Resilience**: - Manufacturing loans are projected to remain resilient, supported by the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing high-end manufacturing and traditional industry upgrades [8] 6. **Challenges and Opportunities in Technology Finance**: - Technology finance is a key development area with high growth potential, but banks must manage associated risks effectively [9][15] 7. **Trends in Wealth Management**: - High-net-worth clients are identified as the main source of opportunities in wealth management, with a trend of resident deposits flowing into the stock market expected to continue [2][10] 8. **Trends in Infrastructure Investment**: - Traditional infrastructure projects are expected to continue a slow decline, while new infrastructure areas like AI and clean energy will see strong demand [11] 9. **Manufacturing Export Outlook**: - Manufacturing exports are expected to be supported by market structure adjustments, with a moderate slowdown in growth anticipated [12] 10. **Financial Support for New Industrialization**: - Measures include increasing support for traditional industry upgrades and green finance, with banks required to include new industrialization in their long-term strategies [14] Additional Important Insights - **Real Estate and Consumption Outlook**: - The real estate market is expected to remain stable, with potential policy measures to stabilize the market if necessary [17] - Consumer performance in 2025 is described as generally weak, with a need for significant policy support to improve consumption rates [20][21] - **Impact of New Internet Loan Regulations**: - New regulations affecting internet loans with interest rates above 24% may pose risks to certain market segments, particularly in lower-tier markets [22] - **Investment Targets for 2026**: - Quality regional rural commercial banks and certain urban banks are highlighted as promising investment targets, with average dividend yields exceeding 4% for A-shares and around 5% for H-shares [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking industry [2] Core Insights - The underlying logic of economic and financial policies supports "new quality productivity" and "bottom-line thinking" [2][3] - New growth points for the banking industry in 2026 include: - Infrastructure loans are expected to rebound, with ongoing structural adjustments, particularly in digital and green infrastructure [2][3] - Manufacturing loans are expected to remain resilient due to sustained export strength and opportunities from traditional industry upgrades and green finance [2][3] - Technology finance loans continue to grow rapidly, especially in the artificial intelligence industry chain [2][3] - Wealth management, particularly for high-net-worth clients, is expected to see significant growth [2][3] - Real estate and consumption are expected to stabilize, with marginal policy easing anticipated in 2026, although a "steady upward" trend requires unexpected policy support [2][3] - The mapping of business to investment indicates that banking operations can remain stable, with bank stocks transitioning from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical" [2][3] Summary by Sections Economic and Financial Policy Framework - The focus is on developing new quality productivity to break through economic growth ceilings, which is the core direction for future financial resource allocation [9] - Bottom-line thinking emphasizes the prevention of systemic risks related to real estate and local debt, providing a stable macro environment for the transition between old and new growth drivers [9][10] New Infrastructure Loans - Infrastructure investment in 2025 shows a significant slowdown, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 1.51%, down 7.84 percentage points from 2024 [20] - New infrastructure, particularly digital and green projects, is expected to drive growth in 2026, with a focus on regional coordination and urban renewal [20][24] Manufacturing Loans - Manufacturing loans are expected to maintain resilience, supported by exports and traditional industry upgrades, with a market potential of 10 trillion over five years [31] - The growth of green finance remains significant, with major banks increasing their green credit ratios [31] Technology Finance - Technology finance is projected to maintain high growth, with a year-on-year increase of over 17% in high-tech loans [31] - There is a notable disparity in technology loan ratios between large and small banks, indicating room for growth in smaller institutions [31] Wealth Management - The wealth management sector is experiencing a shift from "scale-driven" to "precise matching," benefiting high-net-worth clients [31] Real Estate and Consumption - Real estate policies are expected to see marginal easing, with a focus on stabilizing the market in 2026 [31] - Consumption is projected to continue under a "policy support" framework, with internal dynamics needing to strengthen [31]