中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 2 ➢ 信贷动能拆分：信贷增速预计继续小幅下探，新基建+新型工业化+科技金融支撑信贷动能。1、动能一：新基建贷款——增速有望回升，结 构持续调整，新基建承接动能。2、动能二：制造业贷款——仍能保持韧性，传统产业"固本升级"5年10万亿市场空间；全国工业中长期 贷款占比不到15%，有提升空间。3、动能三：科技金融贷款——有望维持高增；全国高新技术企业贷款占比仍只有10%，有提升空间。4、 地产：企稳回升需要超预期政策，预计对公、零售地产相关信贷需求仍较疲软。5、消费：2026难见趋势性拐点。国补方向（或偏向服务消 费方向）的消费信贷、信用卡有望有温和回暖，整体消费信贷需求难见趋势性扭转。 ➢ 银行收入拆分：预计利息收入回暖带动营收回暖，预计26E上市银行营收同比+2.5%,净利润同比+2.3%。1、息差：测算26E息差下行2.5bp。 资产端降幅有望小于25年，负债端支撑力度有望维持，若仅考虑存量货币政策（化债、历年存贷重定价等），测算26E息差回暖1.4bp。若 年初对称降息20bp，综合考虑存量及新增政策，测算26E息差下降2.5bp， ...

11月26日，省十四届人大常委会第十九次会议听取了省政府《关于全省金融工作情况的报告》。报 告显示，前三季度，全省社会融资规模增量达2.99万亿元、居全国第一，法人金融机构总资产超15万亿 元，全省银行业不良贷款率0.82%、处于全国较低水平，金融业有力支撑江苏扛起经济大省挑大梁的责 任担当。 报告称，今年以来全省金融要素供给充裕、保障有力。前三季度，全省新增本外币贷款2.31万亿 元，保持全国第一；制造业贷款、科技型企业贷款、绿色贷款、普惠小微贷款余额分别较年初增长 11.1%、16.2%、22.9%和11%；非金融企业（不含央企）发行债券1.15万亿元。今年截至目前，全省新 增境内上市公司24家、居全国第一，其中23家属于战略性新兴产业；科创板和北交所上市公司数量分别 达114家、54家，均居全国首位。全国私募创投类基金投资江苏企业的在投本金规模超3000亿元，居各 省首位。 地方金融改革向新而行、亮点颇多。通过组建省国金投资集团和江苏农商联合银行，我省国有金融 资本布局进一步优化；通过设立华东地区首家信用增进公司，大力支持中小科创企业债券融资。省战略 性新兴产业基金集群加快发展，产业专项基金总规模已超千 ...

银行业 2026 年的业务增长点及对投资的映射 20251203 摘要 2026 年贷款结构预测：房地产贷款占比或保持稳定，制造业贷款受益 于高端制造和产业升级，科技金融贷款预计高增长但伴随风险，财富管 理领域中高净值客户是主要增长点。 2026 年金融政策核心：支持新质生产力发展，科技金融是重点；坚持 底线思维，防范系统性金融风险，经济或房地产市场承压时或有政策放 松。 银行股具有弱周期属性，2026 年预计延续。优质区域城农商行、大型 银行及中高净值客户占比较高的股份行更具优势，在科技、制造、高净 值客户业务增长点上更具竞争力。 2026 年基建贷款有望回升，受益于 5,000 亿政策金融工具的逐步落实 和新型基建（如清洁能源项目）的高速增长。 制造业贷款预计保持韧性，受益于"十五"规划强调高端制造、出口韧 性、传统产业升级和绿色金融需求。 科技金融是未来发展重点，但银行需关注风险管理挑战，有效管理新兴 领域潜在风险考验银行风控和创新能力。 财富管理领域，中高净值客户是主要机会来源，资本市场活跃度提升， 居民存款流入股市趋势预计持续，精准匹配和加强投顾业务至关重要。 2026 年的金融政策环境如何影响银行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking industry [2] Core Insights - The underlying logic of economic and financial policies supports "new quality productivity" and "bottom-line thinking" [2][3] - New growth points for the banking industry in 2026 include: - Infrastructure loans are expected to rebound, with ongoing structural adjustments, particularly in digital and green infrastructure [2][3] - Manufacturing loans are expected to remain resilient due to sustained export strength and opportunities from traditional industry upgrades and green finance [2][3] - Technology finance loans continue to grow rapidly, especially in the artificial intelligence industry chain [2][3] - Wealth management, particularly for high-net-worth clients, is expected to see significant growth [2][3] - Real estate and consumption are expected to stabilize, with marginal policy easing anticipated in 2026, although a "steady upward" trend requires unexpected policy support [2][3] - The mapping of business to investment indicates that banking operations can remain stable, with bank stocks transitioning from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical" [2][3] Summary by Sections Economic and Financial Policy Framework - The focus is on developing new quality productivity to break through economic growth ceilings, which is the core direction for future financial resource allocation [9] - Bottom-line thinking emphasizes the prevention of systemic risks related to real estate and local debt, providing a stable macro environment for the transition between old and new growth drivers [9][10] New Infrastructure Loans - Infrastructure investment in 2025 shows a significant slowdown, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 1.51%, down 7.84 percentage points from 2024 [20] - New infrastructure, particularly digital and green projects, is expected to drive growth in 2026, with a focus on regional coordination and urban renewal [20][24] Manufacturing Loans - Manufacturing loans are expected to maintain resilience, supported by exports and traditional industry upgrades, with a market potential of 10 trillion over five years [31] - The growth of green finance remains significant, with major banks increasing their green credit ratios [31] Technology Finance - Technology finance is projected to maintain high growth, with a year-on-year increase of over 17% in high-tech loans [31] - There is a notable disparity in technology loan ratios between large and small banks, indicating room for growth in smaller institutions [31] Wealth Management - The wealth management sector is experiencing a shift from "scale-driven" to "precise matching," benefiting high-net-worth clients [31] Real Estate and Consumption - Real estate policies are expected to see marginal easing, with a focus on stabilizing the market in 2026 [31] - Consumption is projected to continue under a "policy support" framework, with internal dynamics needing to strengthen [31]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Bank's recent equity changes reflect the optimization reform requirements from the Chongqing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with significant implications for its long-term strategic layout and brand development in the western financial sector [4][8]. Group 1: Equity Changes - On November 14, Chongqing Bank announced an equity change, with its largest shareholder, Chongqing Yufu Capital, reducing its stake from 23.45% to 21.93% following a series of announcements in August [4][6]. - The bank's stock price has shown a positive trend, with a year-to-date increase of 24.9%, closing at 11.12 yuan per share as of November 21 [10]. - The bank's recent equity adjustments are part of a broader trend of resource optimization among local state-owned enterprises in the financial sector [8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, Chongqing Bank's total assets reached 1,022.75 billion yuan, marking a 19.39% increase from the end of 2024 [11]. - The bank reported a revenue of 11.74 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.879 billion yuan for the third quarter of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10.4% and 10.19%, respectively [5][11]. - However, the bank faces challenges in its intermediary business, with net commission income decreasing by 27.6% year-on-year [11][13]. Group 3: Capital Adequacy - The bank's capital adequacy ratios have shown a decline, with the core tier one capital adequacy ratio dropping to 8.57%, approaching regulatory limits [14]. - The bank's capital structure has been under pressure, with a need for capital replenishment highlighted by the recent performance metrics [15]. Group 4: Regulatory Issues - Chongqing Bank was fined 2.2 million yuan for internal control and compliance issues, including inadequate loan due diligence and imprudent investment practices [15][20]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio was reported at 1.14% as of the third quarter, with specific segments, such as retail credit, showing higher delinquency rates [17][19].

Core Insights - The company has been increasing credit investments in manufacturing clients with high technological content and good development prospects to support the real economy and industrial structure adjustment [1] - The company has improved the precision of client selection through in-depth industry research and strengthened its industrial financial service teams and professional review teams for manufacturing [1] - The asset quality of manufacturing loans has remained strong this year, with a non-performing loan ratio of less than 0.7% [1]

Core Insights - Zhangjiagang Bank has demonstrated steady growth in scale, improved profitability, and solid asset quality in its Q3 2025 report, reflecting strong cost control and profit conversion capabilities in a complex economic environment [1] Financial Performance - The bank achieved operating income of 3.676 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.18%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.572 billion yuan, up 5.79% [2] - The net profit for Q3 alone was 577 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.99%, indicating strengthened growth momentum [2] - The annualized return on assets (ROA) improved to 0.96%, indicating effective asset utilization [2] - Net assets attributable to shareholders increased to 20.350 billion yuan, a growth of 3.18% from the beginning of the year, with net asset value per share rising to 7.51 yuan [2] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.94%, significantly better than the industry average, showcasing the bank's strong credit risk management [3] - The provision coverage ratio stood at 355.05%, well above the regulatory requirement of 150%, indicating robust risk mitigation capabilities [3][5] - The bank has prepared over 3.5 times the buffer for potential credit losses, reflecting a strong risk compensation ability [4] Strategic Focus - The bank's total loans reached 146.311 billion yuan, with a growth of 6.55% year-to-date, emphasizing its commitment to serving the real economy [7] - Corporate loans grew by 12.86% to 82.371 billion yuan, driving asset scale growth [8] - The bank's agricultural and small enterprise loans amounted to 124.786 billion yuan, accounting for 90.34% of total loans, reinforcing its focus on inclusive finance [8] - In emerging sectors, green finance and technology finance saw significant growth, with green credit reaching 5.298 billion yuan, up 21%, and loans to tech enterprises growing by 19.42% [8] Wealth Management - The bank's wealth management transformation has shown remarkable results, with agency business scale reaching 4.343 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 162.73% [9] - The rapid growth of intermediary business not only optimized the income structure but also opened new development paths in a market with interest rate liberalization [9] Conclusion - Overall, Zhangjiagang Bank has achieved a balanced performance in scale, profitability, quality, and structure, positioning itself for sustained competitive advantage in the regional financial market [9]

Core Insights - Shanghai Bank reported positive growth in both revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with operating income reaching 41.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.04%, and net profit of 18.08 billion yuan, up 2.77% [1] Financial Performance - As of the end of September 2025, the non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.18%, unchanged from the end of the previous year, while the provision coverage ratio was 254.92%, indicating sufficient overall provisioning [1] - The first major shareholder, Shanghai Lianhe Investment Co., Ltd., increased its holdings to 2.092 billion shares by the end of September 2025, an increase of 6.97 million shares since the end of June 2025 [1] Sector-Specific Developments - Shanghai Bank has focused on deepening connections with technology innovation channels and enhancing service capabilities across key industrial chains, with technology loan disbursements amounting to 166.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.83% [1] - The bank has also made strides in supporting small and micro enterprises, with inclusive loan disbursements reaching 139.32 billion yuan, up 2.93% year-on-year [1] - Manufacturing loan disbursements totaled 86.51 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.89% year-on-year growth, supporting high-quality development in the manufacturing sector [1] Retail Banking and Customer Growth - Shanghai Bank has enhanced its retail financial services, focusing on pension finance, wealth management, and consumer finance, with retail customers reaching 21.50 million and managing over 1 trillion yuan in assets under management (AUM), a 5.50% increase from the previous year [2] - The bank leads in pension customer share in Shanghai, with 1.60 million pension clients and a 6.21% increase in AUM for pension clients [2] Loan Products Performance - Auto consumer loan disbursements grew by 40.16% year-on-year, with the balance of auto consumer loans increasing by 16.95% compared to the previous year, and loans for new energy vehicles surged by 63.08% [2] - Housing mortgage loan disbursements increased by 5.47% year-on-year, with a balance of 162.12 billion yuan as of September 2025, reflecting a 1.47% growth, and a 5.47% increase in the Shanghai region [2]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the four major state-owned banks in China for the first three quarters of 2023 shows overall growth in total assets, revenue, and net profit, with a significant focus on loan issuance and non-interest income expansion [1][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance - As of the end of September 2023, the total assets of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) reached 52.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.18% from the end of the previous year [2][4]. - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) and China Construction Bank (CCB) followed with total assets of 48.14 trillion yuan and 45.37 trillion yuan, respectively, both showing growth rates exceeding 11% [2][4]. - The total assets of Bank of China (BOC) stood at 37.55 trillion yuan, growing by 7.1% [2][4]. - ABC and ICBC each issued over 2 trillion yuan in new loans, with ABC's new loans at 2,081.39 billion yuan (8.36% growth) and ICBC's at 2,079.70 billion yuan (7.33% growth) [3][4]. Group 2: Revenue and Profit Growth - All four banks achieved growth in both revenue and net profit, with BOC showing the fastest revenue growth at 4,912.04 billion yuan (2.69% year-on-year) [7][8]. - ABC led in net profit growth among the four banks [8]. Group 3: Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for ICBC, ABC, CCB, and BOC were 1.33%, 1.27%, 1.32%, and 1.24%, respectively, all showing slight declines from the beginning of the year [8][9]. - ABC had the highest provision coverage ratio at 295.08%, while CCB's coverage ratio increased by 2.3 percentage points from the start of the year, indicating enhanced risk mitigation capabilities [8][9]. Group 4: Non-Interest Income and Market Performance - The banks are actively expanding non-interest income, with ICBC, CCB, and BOC reporting non-interest income of 166.61 billion yuan, 146.10 billion yuan, and 165.41 billion yuan, respectively, all with growth rates exceeding 11% [11][12]. - The stock prices of all four banks have increased this year, with ABC's stock price rising by 57.72%, making it the second-largest bank by market capitalization globally, following JPMorgan Chase [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - China Construction Bank (CCB) has demonstrated strong performance in supporting the real economy, with significant growth in various loan categories and positive financial results for the first three quarters of the year [1] Financial Performance - CCB reported operating income of 560.281 billion yuan, an increase of 1.44% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 257.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.62% [1] Loan Growth - As of the end of September, CCB's manufacturing loan balance exceeded 3.5 trillion yuan [1] - Loans to the private economy surpassed 6.7 trillion yuan [1] - The balance of inclusive loans for small and micro enterprises reached 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 397.69 billion yuan from the end of last year [1] Investment in Innovation and Sustainability - CCB's investment in technology innovation bonds increased by over four times year-on-year [1] - The balance of green loans was 5.89 trillion yuan, representing a year-to-date growth of 18.38% [1] Asset Quality and Risk Management - CCB maintained a stable asset quality with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.32%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the end of last year [1] - The provision coverage ratio stood at 235.05%, an increase of 1.45 percentage points from the end of last year [1] - The capital adequacy ratio was reported at 19.24% [1]