宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 6 月 29 日 周度金融市场跟踪 本周以伊停火，风险资产全面上涨；债券市场 小幅震荡（ 6 月 23 日 -6 月 27 日） ◼ 股票方面，本周 A 股放量上涨。全周累计看，沪深 300 上涨 2.0%，中证 1000 上涨 4.6%，中证 2000 上涨 5.6%，小盘股涨幅大于大盘股。恒生指数上涨 3.2%，恒生科 技指数上涨 4.1%。行业方面，本周 31 个一级行业仅石油化工、食品饮料和交通运输 3 个行业下跌，计算机、军工和非银领涨，且涨幅均在 6%以上。周内看，上周末美 国打击了伊朗核设施，以伊局势一度升温，周一早晨（6 月 23 日）以色列总理表示 伊朗核设施已受到重创，以色列对伊朗的行动目标接近完成，市场避险情绪有所下降， 当天 A 股超 4400 家公司上涨。周二凌晨（6 月 24 日），特朗普在其社交媒体上发文 表示，以色列和伊朗已同意全面停火。当天 A 股放量上涨，全天超 4700 家公司上涨， 全 A 成交额超 1.4 万亿元，较前一天上升超 3000 亿元。周二盘后，中国人民银行等 六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费 ...

6月26日周四，A股小幅低开，三大股指早盘震荡回升，军工股继续强势，固态电池概念活跃，创新药板块调整。 港股低开低走，恒指早盘跌近1%，医药股下跌，新消费三宝走低，国泰君安国际盘初一度涨90%，现涨近30%。 债市方面，国债期货集体上涨。核心市场走势： | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 3456.62 | 0.64 | 0.02% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 10428.64 | 34.91 | 0.34% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 2138.36 | 9.97 | 0.47% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | | 3961.84 | 1.78 | 0.04% | | 000016 | FJESO | | 2745.01 | -2.71 | -0.10% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | | 1219.76 | 2.67 | 0.22% | | 000688 | 科创20 | | 1001.50 | 5.89 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The approval of Guotai Junan International to provide cryptocurrency and virtual asset trading services has significantly boosted the A-share financial technology sector and market sentiment, leading to a notable increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and trading volume [2][4]. Market Performance - As of June 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04% to close at 3455.97 points, marking a new high for the year, while the ChiNext Index increased by over 3% [2]. - The trading volume in the two markets reached 1.6 trillion yuan [2]. Sector Activity - Active sectors included stablecoins, military industry, AI applications, computing power, solid-state batteries, and autonomous driving, while oil and gas, as well as shipping sectors, faced adjustments due to external factors [3]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict a structural market trend with low-level rotation continuing, driven by policy timing and strength [4]. - Multiple brokerages forecast a potential upward trend in the A-share market for the second half of 2025, supported by resilient domestic economic performance and relatively low asset valuations [4][7]. Investment Directions - Brokerages suggest focusing on three main investment directions for the second half of the year: dividend assets, technology innovation themes, and large consumer sectors [5][21]. Dividend Assets - Dividend assets, including financial sectors like insurance and banking, as well as shipping, communication services, and electricity, are seen as attractive due to their low valuations and stable returns [22]. - The current low-interest-rate environment enhances the appeal of dividend assets, aligning well with the demand from long-term funds [22]. Technology Innovation - Key areas of focus include AI computing power, AI applications, and embodied intelligence, with expectations for significant growth in these sectors [23]. - The first phase of AI market activity is centered around infrastructure, while the second phase will focus on application layers, including AI agents and humanoid robots [23]. Large Consumer Sector - The domestic beauty, pet economy, and IP economy are highlighted as promising investment opportunities [25]. - Emerging consumer trends such as domestic beauty brands, pet products, and innovative pharmaceuticals are recommended for investment [25].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to show a fluctuating upward trend in the second half of 2025, driven by strong domestic economic resilience and relatively low asset valuations, with investment opportunities identified in dividend assets, technological innovation, and consumer sectors [1][2][4][15]. Investment Strategy - Multiple brokerages suggest focusing on three main investment directions for the second half of 2025: dividend assets, technology innovation themes, and large consumer sectors [1][15]. Dividend Assets - Dividend assets include high-dividend financial sectors such as insurance and banking, as well as shipping ports, communication services, and electricity sectors. These assets are attractive due to low valuations and stable dividend returns, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [16]. - The focus should be on quality cash flow, volatility, and dividend certainty rather than solely on dividend yield, with recommendations for sectors like consumer leaders, public utilities, telecommunications, and banking [16]. Technology Innovation - Key areas of focus include AI computing, AI applications, and embodied intelligence. The first phase of AI market growth is centered around infrastructure, while the second phase will focus on application layers [17]. - AI Agents, which integrate various capabilities, are expected to drive demand for computing power and cloud services, while humanoid robots and advancements in core components are also significant [17]. Large Consumer Sectors - The large consumer sector is highlighted, with particular interest in domestic beauty brands, pet economy, and IP economy. Emerging consumption trends in beauty, pet products, and innovative pharmaceuticals are recommended for investment [18][19].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose for three consecutive days, opening higher and reaching a peak of 24,428.53 points, an increase of over 250 points [1] - As of the midday close, the HSI increased by 0.77% to 24,362.73 points, while the Tech Index rose by 0.81% to 5,340.91 points [1] - The total market turnover reached 129.905 billion HKD [1] Sector Performance - Major financial sectors, including Chinese brokerage and banking stocks, led the market gains [1] - Notable performances were seen in the education, semiconductor, and military sectors, while the oil, gas, and shipping sectors experienced declines [1] Company Highlights - Guotai Junan International (01788.HK) surged by 68.55% after receiving approval to provide cryptocurrency and virtual asset trading services [1] - Semiconductor company SMIC (00981.HK) saw a rise of 2.64%, and New Oriental (09901.HK) increased by 10.57% [1] - On the other hand, Cao Cao Travel (02643.HK) experienced a drop of 14.76% on its first day of trading, while Shandong Molong (00568.HK) fell by 5.77% [1]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a morning rally with all three major indices rising, particularly driven by the financial sector, power batteries, military industry, and computing power sectors [1][6] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index opened higher, with the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing over 1% [2][3] - Domestic commodity futures declined, with crude oil prices dropping over 9% [1][20] A-shares Performance - As of the report, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21% to 3427.70, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.57% to 10275.88, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.07% to 2086.29 [1][15] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.97% to 24410.59, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.49% to 5376.75 [2][3] Bond Market - The bond market saw an increase in government bond futures, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.03%, the 10-year contract by 0.02%, the 5-year contract by 0.04%, and the 2-year contract by 0.02% [3][4] Sector Highlights - The financial sector showed significant activity, with stocks like Guotai Junan International surging over 80% after receiving approval to provide cryptocurrency trading services [12][14] - The military sector saw strong performance, with stocks such as Zhongguang Optical and Beifang Navigation hitting the daily limit, and several others rising over 5% [10][11] - Semiconductor stocks in Hong Kong also performed well, with companies like Huahong Semiconductor and SMIC seeing gains of nearly 5% and 3% respectively [8] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, crude oil futures fell sharply, with the main contract down nearly 9%, while other commodities like fuel oil and liquefied petroleum gas also saw declines [20]