宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 6 月 29 日 周度金融市场跟踪 本周以伊停火，风险资产全面上涨；债券市场 小幅震荡（ 6 月 23 日 -6 月 27 日） ◼ 股票方面，本周 A 股放量上涨。全周累计看，沪深 300 上涨 2.0%，中证 1000 上涨 4.6%，中证 2000 上涨 5.6%，小盘股涨幅大于大盘股。恒生指数上涨 3.2%，恒生科 技指数上涨 4.1%。行业方面，本周 31 个一级行业仅石油化工、食品饮料和交通运输 3 个行业下跌，计算机、军工和非银领涨，且涨幅均在 6%以上。周内看，上周末美 国打击了伊朗核设施，以伊局势一度升温，周一早晨（6 月 23 日）以色列总理表示 伊朗核设施已受到重创，以色列对伊朗的行动目标接近完成，市场避险情绪有所下降， 当天 A 股超 4400 家公司上涨。周二凌晨（6 月 24 日），特朗普在其社交媒体上发文 表示，以色列和伊朗已同意全面停火。当天 A 股放量上涨，全天超 4700 家公司上涨， 全 A 成交额超 1.4 万亿元，较前一天上升超 3000 亿元。周二盘后，中国人民银行等 六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费 ...

6月26日周四，A股小幅低开，三大股指早盘震荡回升，军工股继续强势，固态电池概念活跃，创新药板块调整。 港股低开低走，恒指早盘跌近1%，医药股下跌，新消费三宝走低，国泰君安国际盘初一度涨90%，现涨近30%。 债市方面，国债期货集体上涨。核心市场走势： | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 3456.62 | 0.64 | 0.02% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 10428.64 | 34.91 | 0.34% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 2138.36 | 9.97 | 0.47% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | | 3961.84 | 1.78 | 0.04% | | 000016 | FJESO | | 2745.01 | -2.71 | -0.10% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | | 1219.76 | 2.67 | 0.22% | | 000688 | 科创20 | | 1001.50 | 5.89 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The approval of Guotai Junan International to provide cryptocurrency and virtual asset trading services has significantly boosted the A-share financial technology sector and market sentiment, leading to a notable increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and trading volume [2][4]. Market Performance - As of June 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04% to close at 3455.97 points, marking a new high for the year, while the ChiNext Index increased by over 3% [2]. - The trading volume in the two markets reached 1.6 trillion yuan [2]. Sector Activity - Active sectors included stablecoins, military industry, AI applications, computing power, solid-state batteries, and autonomous driving, while oil and gas, as well as shipping sectors, faced adjustments due to external factors [3]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict a structural market trend with low-level rotation continuing, driven by policy timing and strength [4]. - Multiple brokerages forecast a potential upward trend in the A-share market for the second half of 2025, supported by resilient domestic economic performance and relatively low asset valuations [4][7]. Investment Directions - Brokerages suggest focusing on three main investment directions for the second half of the year: dividend assets, technology innovation themes, and large consumer sectors [5][21]. Dividend Assets - Dividend assets, including financial sectors like insurance and banking, as well as shipping, communication services, and electricity, are seen as attractive due to their low valuations and stable returns [22]. - The current low-interest-rate environment enhances the appeal of dividend assets, aligning well with the demand from long-term funds [22]. Technology Innovation - Key areas of focus include AI computing power, AI applications, and embodied intelligence, with expectations for significant growth in these sectors [23]. - The first phase of AI market activity is centered around infrastructure, while the second phase will focus on application layers, including AI agents and humanoid robots [23]. Large Consumer Sector - The domestic beauty, pet economy, and IP economy are highlighted as promising investment opportunities [25]. - Emerging consumer trends such as domestic beauty brands, pet products, and innovative pharmaceuticals are recommended for investment [25].

2025年下半年A股投资关键词为红利资产、科技创新、大消费。 展望2025年下半年，多家券商指出，A股有望呈现震荡向上行情。一方面，国内经济保持较强韧性；另 一方面，中国资产的估值仍处于偏低水平，中国资产重估以及外资流入仍有演绎的空间。 21世纪经济报道记者梳理发现，对于下半年的投资，多家券商建议从红利资产、科技创新主题、大消费 板块三大方向去挖掘投资机会。 下半年A股或震荡向上 近期，卖方机构在展望2025年下半年投资策略时，释放了乐观情绪。多家券商判断，2025年下半年，A 股市场有望震荡向上。 具体而言，机构主要从两个维度进行分析，继而得出上述结论。 第一，结合基本面、估值等因素。 21世纪经济报道记者易妍君 广州报道 6月25日，"国泰君安国际获批提供加密货币等虚拟资产交易服 务"的消息引爆A股金融科技板块，也提振了市场交易情绪。 截至当日收盘，上证指数上涨1.04%，报收3455.97点，创年内收盘新高，创业板指涨超3%；两市成交 放量至1.6万亿元。 盘面上，稳定币、军工、AI应用、算力、固态电池、无人驾驶等概念股表现活跃。油气、海运等板块 受外围因素影响继续调整。 "短期指数打开空间后，预计A股 ...

港股午评：恒指早盘一度刷新逾两周高点 国泰君安国际大涨近70% 金十数据6月25日讯，恒指连升三日后今早高开维持涨势，一度涨超250点刷新逾两周新高，最高见 24428.53点。午前恒指、科指均小幅回落。截至午间收盘，恒指收涨0.77%，报24362.73点，科指收涨 0.81%，报5340.91点，恒指大市成交额达1299.05亿港元。盘面上，中资券商股、银行股等大金融板块 领涨大盘，教育、半导体、军工板块表现突出，油气、航运板块跌幅居前。个股方面，国泰君安国际 (01788.HK)收涨68.55%，公司正式获批提供加密货币等虚拟资产交易服务；中芯国际(00981.HK)收涨 2.64%，新东方(09901.HK)收涨10.57%；曹操出行(02643.HK)上市首日破发收跌14.76%，山东墨龙 (00568.HK)收跌5.77%。 ...

6月25日周三，A股早盘震荡走高，三大股指集体上涨，大金融板块持续活跃，动力电池、军工、算力等板块涨幅 居前，油气股继续回调。港股恒指、恒科指高开高走，恒科指涨超1%，科网、汽车、医药等集体走高，新消费三 宝有所反弹，港股国泰君安国际盘初大涨超80%。商品方面，国内商品期货下跌，原油跌超9%。债市方面，国债期 货走高。核心市场走势： | 代码 | | 从日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 3427.70 | 7.14 | 0.21% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 10275.88 | 58.25 | 0.57% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 2086.29 | 22.15 | 1.07% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | | 3912.93 | 8.90 | 0.23% | | 000016 | 上证50 | | 2713.73 | -2.19 | -0.08% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | | 1208.44 | 10.33 | 0.86% ...