Strategy - The AH premium has significantly decreased, dropping from a high of 144% in early April to 123% by the end of July, marking a new low since 2020, currently at 125% [5] - Notable companies like CATL and Hansoh Pharma are trading at significant discounts of 31% and 15% respectively compared to their Hong Kong counterparts [5] - The article discusses the pricing logic of the AH premium and its potential as a timing indicator for choosing between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5] Macroeconomy - The U.S. economy is expected to recover as the worst phase may have passed, despite ongoing policy shocks affecting the recovery process [7] - The U.S. Treasury is projected to issue approximately $1 trillion in new debt in Q3, leading to tighter liquidity and potential pressure on risk assets [7] - A long-term phase of fiscal dominance and monetary cooperation is anticipated, with a trend of U.S. dollar depreciation and increased opportunities in non-U.S. markets [7] - The expectation of a weaker dollar may benefit emerging markets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [7] Strategy - The A-share market's margin financing balance has surpassed 2 trillion yuan for the first time since July 2015, reaching 20,002.6 million yuan [9] - Compared to 2015, the current market has a larger scale, lower proportion of leveraged funds, and a more stable upward trend in margin financing [9] - The article suggests that the current market structure may resemble that of 2013, but with more aggressive policy support and improved liquidity [9] Strategy - The article suggests that the current A-share market resembles an "enhanced version of 2013," with small-cap and growth styles outperforming [13] - It recommends focusing on sectors with high growth and performance validation, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, military, and non-ferrous metals [13] - The brokerage and insurance sectors are highlighted for their earnings elasticity and potential benefits from increased retail investment [13]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Zhaoshang China Opportunity Stock (001749) reported a profit of 4.3172 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0328 yuan, indicating a net value growth rate of 2.48% during the period [3]. Fund Performance - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's scale was 183 million yuan [15]. - The fund's unit net value was 1.452 yuan as of July 17 [3]. - The fund manager, Li Huajian, oversees two funds, both of which have shown positive returns over the past year [3]. - The fund's one-year compounded net value growth rate reached 18.53%, ranking it 87 out of 166 comparable funds [3]. - Over the past three months, the fund's compounded net value growth rate was 9.75%, ranking 86 out of 167 comparable funds [3]. - The fund's six-month compounded net value growth rate was 5.60%, ranking 122 out of 167 comparable funds [3]. - The fund's three-year compounded net value growth rate was -29.86%, ranking 141 out of 159 comparable funds [3]. Risk Metrics - The fund's three-year Sharpe ratio was -0.2043, ranking 130 out of 159 comparable funds [8]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 50.43%, ranking 14 out of 158 comparable funds [10]. - The largest single-quarter drawdown occurred in Q1 2021, at 23.46% [10]. Investment Strategy - The fund management remains optimistic about the structural market trends in A-shares, citing improvements in domestic economic growth and structural transformation [3]. - The fund is particularly focused on investment opportunities in sectors such as AI, pharmaceuticals, military industry, and media [3]. Portfolio Composition - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's top ten holdings included Changying Tong, Zhongke Feice, Jingyi Equipment, Boqian New Materials, Youfang Technology, Hudian Co., Changchuan Technology, Xinyi Sheng, Jinqiao Information, and Chip Origin Technology [18]. - The average stock position over the past three years was 89.19%, compared to the industry average of 87.97% [13]. - The fund reached a maximum stock position of 93.14% at the end of H1 2025, with a minimum of 79.84% at the end of H1 2024 [13].

Core Viewpoint - The approval of Guotai Junan International to provide cryptocurrency and virtual asset trading services has significantly boosted the A-share financial technology sector and market sentiment, leading to a notable increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and trading volume [2][4]. Market Performance - As of June 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04% to close at 3455.97 points, marking a new high for the year, while the ChiNext Index increased by over 3% [2]. - The trading volume in the two markets reached 1.6 trillion yuan [2]. Sector Activity - Active sectors included stablecoins, military industry, AI applications, computing power, solid-state batteries, and autonomous driving, while oil and gas, as well as shipping sectors, faced adjustments due to external factors [3]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict a structural market trend with low-level rotation continuing, driven by policy timing and strength [4]. - Multiple brokerages forecast a potential upward trend in the A-share market for the second half of 2025, supported by resilient domestic economic performance and relatively low asset valuations [4][7]. Investment Directions - Brokerages suggest focusing on three main investment directions for the second half of the year: dividend assets, technology innovation themes, and large consumer sectors [5][21]. Dividend Assets - Dividend assets, including financial sectors like insurance and banking, as well as shipping, communication services, and electricity, are seen as attractive due to their low valuations and stable returns [22]. - The current low-interest-rate environment enhances the appeal of dividend assets, aligning well with the demand from long-term funds [22]. Technology Innovation - Key areas of focus include AI computing power, AI applications, and embodied intelligence, with expectations for significant growth in these sectors [23]. - The first phase of AI market activity is centered around infrastructure, while the second phase will focus on application layers, including AI agents and humanoid robots [23]. Large Consumer Sector - The domestic beauty, pet economy, and IP economy are highlighted as promising investment opportunities [25]. - Emerging consumer trends such as domestic beauty brands, pet products, and innovative pharmaceuticals are recommended for investment [25].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongyuan Securities indicates that A-shares are expected to continue a structural market in June, driven by policy support and profit recovery [1] Economic Data - Economic data released in May exceeded expectations, with industrial output, consumption, and exports performing well, providing fundamental support for A-shares [1] Monetary Policy - Nine joint-stock banks have followed suit in lowering deposit rates, which may drive funds towards the equity market, bringing incremental capital to A-shares [1] - A series of financial policies have been released to signal stable growth and cost reduction, including a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates, and a 0.25 percentage point decrease in structural monetary policy tools and personal provident fund loan rates, improving market liquidity [1] Investment Strategy - The current market is characterized by a rotation between growth and value stocks, suggesting investors focus on two main lines: 1. Sectors benefiting from domestic demand, such as computers, components, electronics, and communications [1] 2. Defensive sectors with low valuations and high dividends, including banks, coal, and oil and petrochemicals [1]

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue its fluctuations in the medium term, with accelerated style rotation, supported by monetary policy easing and strong export performance [1] - China's export focus has successfully shifted towards ASEAN and EU markets, leading to stable export growth despite basic economic downward expectations [1] - The market may experience a rotation pattern of "risk aversion - consumption - growth" in May [1] Group 2 - A-share market is experiencing accelerated rotation, with a rebound in financing activity and a shift towards small and mid-cap growth stocks [2] - The combination of policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations supports risk appetite, while structural market conditions are expected to prevail [2] - Key internal certainty clues include potential benefits for large-cap stocks and public utilities from new public fund regulations, and opportunities in sectors like military electronics and renewable energy equipment [2] Group 3 - Strategic metals are likely to undergo a value reassessment due to increased export control measures and the importance of these resources in the current international political context [3] - The crackdown on smuggling and export of strategic minerals is deemed urgent and significant for national security and development interests [3] - Prices of strategic metals such as rare earths, tungsten, and antimony are expected to rise, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the strategic metals sector [3]