证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK） FY2026Q1 季报点评：云业务超预期，AI 持 续投入 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 941,168 | 996,347 | 1,068,578 | 1,158,745 | 1,269,024 | | 同比（%） | 8.34 | 5.86 | 7.25 | 8.44 | 9.52 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 80,009 | 130,109 | 102,068 | 155,145 | 203,653 | | 同比（%） | 9.93 | 62.62 | (21.55) | 52.00 | 31.27 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 157,479 | 158,122 | 120,958 | 173,838 | 222,288 | | 同比（%） | 11.39 | 0. ...

Summary of Alibaba Group's 2025 Financial Year Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Alibaba Group - **Fiscal Year**: 2025 - **Conference Structure**: Management speeches followed by Q&A session Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **Overall Income Growth**: Increased by 10% after removing Darun 8 and Yingtai [2] - **EBITDA Growth**: Increased by 36%, attributed to income growth and operational efficiency improvements [2][7] - **Net Profit**: Non-recognized accounting standard net profit reached RMB 29.8 billion, a 22% increase [7] - **Operating Cash Flow**: RMB 27.5 billion, an 18% increase [7] - **Free Cash Flow**: Decreased by 76% to RMB 3.7 billion, mainly due to cloud infrastructure investments [7] Business Segments - **Cloud Business (Aliyun)**: - Quarterly revenue increased by 18%, with external commercial revenue up by 17% [3][5] - AI-related product revenue has seen three-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [3][5] - Confidence in continued revenue growth driven by AI demand despite global supply chain uncertainties [3][5] - **E-commerce (Taotian Group)**: - Revenue increased by RMB 10.14 billion, a 9% rise [8] - Customer management revenue grew by 12%, driven by increased take rates [8] - The number of 888VIP members exceeded 50 million, indicating strong user growth [4][8] AI and Technology Investments - **AI Infrastructure**: Significant investments in AI infrastructure and technology development to maintain global competitiveness [2][3] - **Open-source Models**: Released QIANWEN 3, with over 200 models opened and downloaded more than 300 million times [3] - **AI Applications**: AI is being applied across various industries, including traditional sectors like manufacturing and finance [4][5] Strategic Focus - **User Experience**: Emphasis on improving user experience through AI in e-commerce, enhancing search, recommendations, and advertising systems [18][19] - **Monetization Strategy**: Focus on stabilizing market share and improving monetization rates through new products and services [22] - **Investment in Instant Commerce**: Plans to invest $10 billion in instant commerce to enhance user engagement and operational efficiency [28][30] Future Outlook - **Revenue Growth**: Strong confidence in revenue growth for Alibaba Cloud driven by AI demand and increased adoption of cloud services [17][26] - **Market Position**: Continued focus on core business and strategic investments to seize long-term growth opportunities [6][12] Additional Important Information - **Shareholder Returns**: The board approved an annual share price of $1.05 per share of ADS, reflecting a 5% increase [6] - **Cash Returns**: Plans to return $16.5 billion in cash to shareholders [7] - **Operational Efficiency**: All branches achieved EBITDA improvement, with loss-making businesses gradually turning profitable [6][12] This summary encapsulates the key insights and financial metrics discussed during the Alibaba Group's 2025 financial year conference call, highlighting the company's performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook.

Summary of Alibaba's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Alibaba - **Date**: July 8, 2025 Key Points Industry and Business Strategy - Alibaba announced a significant investment of **500 billion RMB** in subsidies for instant retail to enhance order density and user transaction frequency, particularly leveraging high-frequency food delivery to stimulate low-frequency instant retail and activate Taobao APP users [2][3][5] - The company is shifting from a passive to an active role in the instant retail sector through flash purchase scenarios to attract new users and re-engage old customers, indicating a strong focus on instant retail as a driver for traffic growth on its e-commerce platform [2][5] Financial Performance and Market Position - Alibaba's stock price has been under pressure primarily due to performance issues within Taotian Group, leading to the announcement of a **500 billion RMB** subsidy plan to improve order density and reduce average losses [3][5] - Despite short-term profit impacts from the subsidy war, the long-term strategic adjustments are expected to yield higher growth potential, particularly in the context of increasing transaction volumes on the Taobao APP [6][7] Cloud Computing and AI Development - Alibaba Cloud faces supply-side pressures and performance volatility, with revenue growth in Q2 2025 falling below market expectations. However, AI demand and cross-selling of AI agents are anticipated to be core growth drivers moving forward [3][4] - The company holds a leading position in the Asia-Pacific public cloud market, providing comprehensive solutions from computing power to applications, despite losing some market share over the past five years [4][8] - The AI industry is expected to bolster Alibaba Cloud's infrastructure supplier status, with its Qianwen model capabilities ranking globally [9][10] Competitive Landscape - In the instant retail battle, Meituan currently leads in order volume and market share, but Alibaba maintains density economics through its food delivery services, which enhances transaction frequency for low-frequency instant retail users [6][7] - The ongoing investment in instant retail is projected to increase transaction volumes and active user counts on the Taobao APP, reinforcing Alibaba's positioning as a super e-commerce APP [7][11] Future Outlook - The outlook for Alibaba's performance in the coming quarters includes catalysts from AI-related growth and stable performance in traditional e-commerce, despite potential pressures from the summer subsidy war [7] - The company anticipates that reaching a critical point in commercial monetization will significantly enhance its EBITA margin, providing substantial profit growth opportunities for investors [11]

Core Insights - Alibaba Cloud has launched its first AI-native development environment tool, Tongyi Lingma AIIDE, which is compatible with the latest Qianwen 3 models and fully integrates Tongyi Lingma plugin capabilities [1] Group 1 - The introduction of Tongyi Lingma AIIDE marks a significant advancement in Alibaba Cloud's AI development tools [1] - The tool is designed to enhance the efficiency and capabilities of developers by providing a comprehensive AI development environment [1] - The integration with Qianwen 3 models indicates Alibaba Cloud's commitment to leveraging cutting-edge AI technology [1]

阿里股价下跌 5月15日，阿里巴巴公布了2025财年第四季度及全年财报。第四季度，阿里营收为2364.54亿元，同比增长7%。不按美国通用会计准则non-GAAP， 净利润为298.47亿元，同比增长22%。 市场延续了电风扇行情，题材加速轮动，机器人产业链掀涨停潮；高位股抱团加剧，成飞集成走出8连板；汽车产业链集体大涨，豪恩汽电、万安 科技等多股涨停。 业绩不及预期吗？ 另外每季度的13F报告，都是投资者观察顶级资金动向的窗口最近，巴菲特又有了新动作。 01 今日A股缩量调整，市场逾3000股飘红，全天成交1.09万亿元，较上一日缩量629亿。截至收盘，沪指跌0.40%，深证成指跌0.07%，创业板指跌 0.19%。 A股昨天涨幅榜领涨的银行、消费、外贸、港口今天领跌。 2025财年全年，阿里营收为9963.47亿元，同比增长6%。不按美国通用会计准则，净利润为1581.22亿元。 值得一提的是，包括淘宝、天猫、闲鱼、1688等在内的淘天集团Q4营收1013.69亿元，同比增长9%。全年营收为4498.27亿元，同比增长3%。 | | | 截至3月31 日止三個月 | | | | --- | --- | - ...