来源：国际金融报 如果要为2025年的公募基金市场寻找一个年度"题眼"，答案或许并非某位明星基金经理或某只爆款产 品，而是"指数"二字。 全市场ETF规模破6.6万亿 回顾2025年，公募指数基金在全市场规模的权重正大幅提升。Wind数据显示，截至2025年三季度末， 全市场非货币ETF、ETF联接基金及其他场外指数基金总规模合计已逼近8万亿元，年内增长2.1万亿 元。 在A股结构性行情下，主动权益类基金表现分化加剧，指数基金却成了"主角"。其中，ETF更以现象级 速度"吸金"，成为指数化投资的急先锋。数据显示，截至2024年年末，全市场ETF规模合计4.66万亿 元，其中，股票型ETF规模合计2.9万亿元。仅仅过了三个季度，截至2025年三季度末，全市场ETF规模 已突破6.6万亿元，其中，股票型ETF规模已突破3.7万亿元。 股票型ETF仍是资金最青睐的类型，但与往年"宽基独大"不同，在成长风格主导下，行业和主题ETF今 年大放异彩。截至2025年12月25日，全市场股票型ETF中，行业ETF最新场内份额3260.41亿份，相比 2024年年末的2220.51份增长超千亿份；主题ETF最新场内份额7712 ...

【导读】打响规模争夺战！中证A500ETF 12月以来"吸金"近950亿元 资金净流入超73亿元 12月25日，沪指日线连拉七连阳，带动上证指数逼近4000点关口，投资ETF场内资金也在中证A500ETF规模争夺战推动下，持续 保持净流入。 在中证A500ETF规模争夺战推动下，股票ETF市场再现资金净流入，推动全市场ETF规模逼近6万亿元大关。 据银河证券基金研究中心数据统计，12月25日，全市场股票ETF（含跨境ETF）资金净流入超73亿元，12月以来资金净流入超过 1100亿元。 中证A500ETF继续成为股票ETF当日"吸金"主力，华泰柏瑞、华夏、南方旗下中证A500ETF资金单日净流入均超过10亿元。12月 以来，全市场中证A500ETF资金净流入接近950亿元。 股票ETF12月25日 银河证券基金研究中心数据显示，截至12月25日，全市场1282只股票ETF（含跨境ETF）总规模达4.74万亿元。在昨日股市上涨 行情中，股票ETF市场总份额增加31.27亿份，按照区间成交均价测算，净流入资金达73.95亿元。 从大类型来看，宽基ETF与债券ETF净流入居前，分别达91.89亿元与88.14亿元， ...

Market Overview - A-share market sentiment has improved following a significant meeting, with average daily trading volume increasing to 19,530.44 billion yuan, up by 2,568.66 billion yuan from the previous week [1][3] - The market has shown a mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 2.74% and 0.84% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34% [2] Fund Flows - Institutional and retail investors have shown synchronized net inflows into the consumer sector, while there are divergences in other sectors, with institutions reducing exposure to technology and cyclical manufacturing [5] - Northbound capital's average daily trading volume increased to 2,324.71 billion yuan, up by 397.27 billion yuan from the previous week [4] Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that A-shares may experience a year-end rally, driven by structural market dynamics and capital market reforms [8] - Key sectors expected to perform well in 2026 include AI industry trends, advantageous manufacturing, "anti-involution," and structural recovery in domestic demand, with predicted net profit growth exceeding 30% [11] ETF Trends - There is a notable divergence in ETF fund flows, with broad-based ETFs gaining significant attention, particularly the A500 ETFs, which saw net inflows of 40.33 billion yuan, 37.64 billion yuan, and 20.58 billion yuan from major fund houses [6][7] Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to benefit from continued economic policy support, with expectations of a reasonable growth rate and a favorable liquidity environment for capital markets [9][10] - The focus for 2026 will likely shift towards AI applications, with a significant emphasis on commercial viability and cross-industry investment opportunities [11]

Market Overview - A-share market sentiment has improved following a significant meeting, with average daily trading volume increasing to 19,530.44 billion yuan, up by 2,568.66 billion yuan from the previous week [1][4] - The market has maintained a volatile trend in December, with the ChiNext Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 2.74% and 0.84% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34% [3] Fund Flows - Institutional and retail investors have shown synchronized net inflows into the consumer sector, while there are divergences in other sectors, with institutions reducing outflows in technology and cyclical manufacturing [6] - Northbound trading volume increased to 2,324.71 billion yuan, up by 397.27 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [5] Sector Performance - The aerospace equipment, communication equipment, and electronic chemicals sectors saw significant gains, with increases of 7.89%, 7.81%, and 6.99% respectively [3] - Conversely, sectors such as coking coal, fisheries, automotive services, oil services, and pharmaceutical commerce experienced declines exceeding 4% [4] Investment Outlook - Institutions anticipate a potential year-end rally in the A-share market, driven by structural market dynamics and capital market reforms [8][9] - Key sectors expected to perform well in 2026 include AI industry trends, advantageous manufacturing, "anti-involution," and structural recovery in domestic demand, with predicted net profit growth exceeding 30% [11] ETF Trends - There is a notable divergence in ETF fund flows, with broad-based ETFs gaining popularity, particularly the A500 ETFs, which attracted significant net inflows [7][8] - The market is expected to see improved liquidity and active trading as institutions reallocate funds towards the end of the year [9]

Core Viewpoint - The robot-themed ETFs have experienced a significant surge, driven by increased market attention and investment inflows, indicating a growing interest in the robotics sector as commercialization accelerates [1][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of December 4, two robot-themed ETFs rose over 3%, leading the stock ETF rankings, while nine others increased by more than 2% [2][3]. - Year-to-date, the 13 robot-themed ETFs have seen a total net inflow of nearly 47.5 billion yuan, with the top two ETFs, 华夏机器人 ETF and 易方达机器人 ETF, attracting 19.09 billion yuan and 12.35 billion yuan respectively [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The performance disparity among robot-themed ETFs is attributed to differences in the underlying indices they track, with 国证机器人产业指数 showing higher gains compared to 中证机器人指数 [3]. - The market currently has 13 robot-themed ETFs, with the largest being 华夏机器人 ETF at 22.8 billion yuan and the second being 易方达机器人 ETF at 13.3 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Institutional Interest - There has been a notable increase in the number of robot-themed ETFs submitted for regulatory approval, with 17 new products reported in the fourth quarter alone, reflecting strong institutional interest in the sector [4][5]. - The growing focus on robotics is seen as a response to policy support for hard technology innovation and the integration of AI and robotics, highlighting the sector's significant growth potential [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider the tracking indices when selecting ETFs, with a preference for those tracking the 国证机器人产业指数 for humanoid robots and 中证机器人指数 for industrial automation [6]. - Key factors for ETF selection include the management capability of the fund company, product scale, liquidity, and cost efficiency, which are crucial for long-term investment success [6].

Group 1: Market Trends - Continuous inflow of funds into equity ETFs, with over 20 billion yuan entering in the first three trading days of the week and a total net subscription of 542.32 billion yuan since November 1 [1][2] - Specific sector ETFs, such as the Southern Growth Enterprise Board AI ETF and Guotai Junan ETF, have seen significant net subscriptions of 32.52 billion yuan and 21.4 billion yuan respectively [2] - Hong Kong-themed ETFs also attracted substantial inflows, with several exceeding 30 billion yuan in net subscriptions [2] Group 2: Bond Fund Dynamics - In stark contrast, bond funds have faced large-scale redemptions, with over 15 bond funds experiencing significant withdrawals in November [4] - Major bond funds, including Tianhong Fund and Yuanxin Yongfeng Fund, have raised their net asset value precision due to large redemptions [4] - The issuance of new bond funds has been sluggish, indicating a decline in attractiveness for pure bond funds amid poor market performance [4] Group 3: Future Market Opportunities - The market is currently experiencing a rebalancing phase, with funds rotating between sectors, particularly moving towards defensive sectors like finance and public utilities [5] - The AI industry is still in its early development stage, with potential for growth as large models improve, leading to a positive cycle of capital investment and revenue [6] - In the Hong Kong market, high-dividend stocks are becoming increasingly attractive, especially with the potential for a new round of interest rate cuts in the US, supporting valuations in this sector [6]

Group 1 - A significant migration of funds is occurring from the bond market to the equity market, with bond funds facing large redemptions while equity funds are experiencing strong inflows [1] - Over 15 bond funds have faced large redemptions in November, prompting fund managers to increase the precision of net asset values [2] - The issuance of new bond funds has cooled, with only 6 pure bond funds launched in November, totaling 1.86 billion [2] Group 2 - Equity products are showing strong "capital absorption" capabilities, with several funds reaching their fundraising limits quickly [4] - As of November 18, equity ETFs have seen a net subscription of 48.47 billion in November, with sector-specific ETFs being particularly popular [4][5] - Since October, equity ETFs have experienced a net inflow of 143.62 billion, indicating a sustained interest in equity investments [5] Group 3 - Fund companies are actively launching new equity funds, with 103 out of 118 new products reported in November being equity-related [6] - Market sentiment is currently characterized by a lack of clear direction, leading to frequent fund rotation among sectors [7] - Long-term investment in equity assets is still considered valuable, with a focus on companies with growth potential and strong overseas market expansion [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with a notable focus on technology-related sectors, particularly in the context of national strategies and real technological barriers [2][3][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 28, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index briefly exceed 4010.73 points, marking a nearly ten-year high before all three major indices closed lower in the afternoon [1]. - The recent trend shows a significant inflow of funds into technology sectors, with net purchases in battery, software development, and communication equipment amounting to 39.83 billion, 36.76 billion, and 36.63 billion respectively [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows - There is a continued trend of capital flowing into technology-focused themes, with equity funds increasing their positions in communication, electronics, and computing sectors [3][5]. - Recent data indicates that from October 20 to October 24, northbound funds saw a net inflow of 10 billion, reversing a previous outflow of 11.3 billion [4]. - The private equity sector shows strong bullish sentiment, with the stock private equity position index reaching 79.68%, the highest in nearly a year [6]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The investment focus is shifting towards technology companies that align with national strategies and possess genuine technological barriers, which are expected to be a key investment theme in the A-share market [2][9]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes self-reliance in technology and modernization of the industrial system, providing a guiding direction for market investments [8][9]. - Key areas of interest include cloud computing, artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, and new materials, which are anticipated to see significant growth and valuation improvements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4010.73 points, marking a near ten-year high, but ultimately closed lower in the afternoon. The trend of capital flowing into technology-related sectors continues, indicating a strong interest in innovation-driven industries [1][4]. Capital Flow Analysis - Main capital inflows were observed in the battery, software development, and communication equipment sectors, with net purchases amounting to 39.83 billion, 36.76 billion, and 36.63 billion respectively [1]. - Recent trends show that various funds are increasingly focusing on technology sectors, with equity funds increasing their positions in communications, electronics, and computing [1][7]. - The recent week saw a net inflow of 10 billion from northbound funds, reversing a previous outflow of 11.3 billion, indicating a renewed interest from foreign investors [4][6]. Institutional Insights - Institutions believe that technology companies aligned with national strategies and possessing genuine technological barriers will be a key investment theme in the A-share market [3][11]. - The positive market signals, such as the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point mark, reflect a stabilizing expectation of economic recovery and ongoing policy support [4]. Private Equity and Fund Trends - Private equity firms have shown a strong inclination to increase their positions, with the stock private equity position index rising to 79.68%, the highest in nearly a year [8][9]. - The influx of capital from private equity, particularly quantitative funds, has been significant, with a notable increase in their scale [9]. Future Market Outlook - The sustainability of domestic economic recovery is crucial, with attention on consumption recovery, policy continuity, and corporate earnings data [10]. - Investment opportunities are expected to concentrate on three main themes: new productivity investments, anti-involution investments, and consumption investments, particularly in technology sectors that align with national strategies [10][11].

Group 1 - As of June 2025, the total scale of ETFs in China has surpassed 4.31 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-to-date growth of 15.58% [3] - Stock ETFs have seen a net inflow of 144.9 billion yuan this year, exceeding 3 trillion yuan in total scale, while bond ETFs have grown by 120.71% to reach 383.98 billion yuan [3] - The credit bond ETF market has experienced significant growth, with a net inflow of 109.09 billion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for half of the total bond ETF scale [3][4] Group 2 - The average return of all ETFs in the market for the first half of the year is 6.08%, with Hong Kong stock ETFs performing particularly well, dominating the top 50 performing ETFs [5] - Ten ETFs have achieved returns exceeding 50%, primarily in the innovative drug and biotechnology sectors, with the top performer being the Huatai-PB Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF at 58.77% [5] - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a new wave of growth driven by policy support and technological breakthroughs, with significant increases in stock prices for many Hong Kong-listed pharmaceutical companies [5][9] Group 3 - The technology and gold ETFs have also shown strong performance, with returns concentrated above 20%, while 13 ETFs have reported losses exceeding 10%, mainly in the photovoltaic and energy sectors [6] - Analysts are focusing on sectors such as innovative drugs, technology growth, and new consumption for future investment opportunities [8][9] - The new consumption sector is expected to see investment opportunities shift between growth styles and high-dividend styles, influenced by changing consumer preferences among Generation Z [10]