（本文作者张思远为星图金融研究院研究员） 一、政策红利密集落地，春季行情有望提前启动 2026年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，宏观政策的前瞻性布局与协同发力为资本市场提供了坚实支撑。 中央经济工作会议定调后，国家发改委、中央财办等核心部门密集开展政策解读，持续释放积极信号， 不仅明确了全年经济工作的核心方向，也为A股市场注入了强劲信心。从政策传导逻辑来看，积极财政 政策与适度宽松货币政策的组合发力，将有效缓解当前经济运行中的"供强需弱"矛盾，推动经济复苏预 期持续升温，而这一过程将直接赋能资本市场，催化春季行情提前启动。 （一）国内宏观政策协同发力，夯实经济复苏基础 中央财办在政策解读中明确，扩大内需将成为2026年经济工作的首要任务，核心在于构建供需两侧协同 提振消费的长效机制，同时统筹推进消费与投资的良性互动。在房地产市场调控方面，政策呈现供需两 端精准施策的特征。供给端聚焦"控增量、盘活存量"的核心目标，通过去库存化优化市场供给结构；需 求端则重点支持刚性与改善性住房需求，通过差异化信贷政策、购房补贴等举措稳定市场预期，推动房 地产市场实现平稳健康发展。 国家发改委明确2026年将围绕提振消费、稳投资、 ...

超10家商业航天独角兽集体奔赴IPO 据21世纪经济报道记者不完全统计，目前已有十余家商业行业企业启动了IPO进程。除了蓝箭航天外， 星河动力、中科宇航、微纳星空、屹信航天、天兵科技、爱思达航天、星际荣耀均已在当地证监局进行 辅导，拟冲刺A股上市；另外国星宇航、福信富通则将目标瞄准了港股。 各大券商显然也不想错过这轮IPO新机遇，竞相参与到商业航空"独角兽"上市项目的争夺中。 近日，证监会网站显示，蓝箭航天IPO辅导状态已变更为"辅导工作完成"，距离正式递表仅一步之遥。 当前，商业航天市场热度持续高涨。目前国内商业航天企业数量已超600家，覆盖卫星制造、火箭发 射、地面设备、终端应用全产业链。 今年6月，科创板"1+6"改革规则落地，重启未盈利企业适用科创板第五套标准上市并扩大适用范围，明 确支持人工智能、商业航天、低空经济等更多前沿科技领域企业上市，商业航天企业开始扎堆筹备 IPO。 "其实前两年，市场就已经出现了将科创板第五套上市标准扩围至商业航天领域的呼声，有很多同行从 那个时候就开始注意这个领域的项目。科创板新政的出台，就是一个'起跑信号'，前期有项目储备的走 得很快。"华南一名资深的保代受访表示。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace sector in China is experiencing significant growth, driven by supportive government policies, increased market demand, and a surge in IPO activities among aerospace companies [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Over 70% of stocks in the commercial aerospace sector saw price increases, with notable gains from companies like Tianrun Technology and Aerospace Huanyu, which rose over 10% [3]. - The Aerospace Equipment Index showed a substantial annual increase, with Aerospace Huanyu leading at 112.55% [3]. Group 2: Government Initiatives - The National Space Administration released an action plan aimed at promoting high-quality development in the commercial aerospace sector by 2027, focusing on efficient collaboration and significant industry scale [4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology initiated commercial trials for satellite IoT services, enhancing the sector's technological capabilities [5]. Group 3: Investment and Financing - Since 2016, over 280 investment events in the commercial aerospace sector have occurred, totaling over 500 billion yuan, with 60 events in 2023 alone amounting to over 95 billion yuan [7]. - The recent reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board have opened up IPO opportunities for aerospace companies, allowing those with high growth potential but lacking stable profits to access capital markets [8]. Group 4: Industry Ecosystem - The action plan aims to create a collaborative ecosystem involving both state-owned and private enterprises, addressing challenges such as resource allocation and financing difficulties [5][6]. - The focus is on developing three key technologies: reusable rocket technology, high-throughput satellite platforms, and in-orbit service capabilities [6]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The satellite internet market in China is projected to reach 648 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding double digits [10]. - The commercial aerospace industry is evolving, with over 600 companies now operating in various segments, establishing a comprehensive industry framework [10]. Group 6: Challenges and Considerations - Aerospace companies face challenges related to high risks and long development cycles, necessitating a focus on technological barriers and commercial viability [11]. - Key considerations for evaluating aerospace companies include their technological innovation capabilities, competitive positioning, and ability to convert technology into economic benefits [11].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.12%, while the total market turnover reached 1.6836 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with notable declines in major indices [1] - The sectors that performed well included cultivated diamonds, coal mining and processing, and wind power equipment, while sectors like Kuaishou concept, Xiaohongshu concept, and Zhipu AI saw significant declines [1] - The commercial aerospace sector exhibited volatility, with Aerospace Power (600343) rising by 6.46% [1] Group 2: Commercial Aerospace Developments - The establishment of the Commercial Aerospace Department by the National Space Administration indicates a growing focus on the commercial aerospace sector [1] - The National Space Administration released an action plan for promoting high-quality and safe development in commercial aerospace from 2025 to 2027, aiming for significant growth in industry scale and innovation [1] - Opportunities in the commercial aerospace sector are highlighted, particularly in satellite and rocket manufacturing, with upstream benefiting from constellation networking demand and downstream having vast market potential in satellite applications and data services [1]

Core Insights - The "2025 Satellite Internet Industry Ecosystem Conference" will be held in Shanghai on December 4-5, focusing on showcasing industry policies, promoting ecological cooperation, and deepening international exchanges [1] - The conference will feature a main forum, three thematic sub-forums, and two investment matching activities, highlighting the latest developments and systematic layout of Shanghai's satellite internet industry [1] Group 1: Technological Framework - Satellite internet is a strategic emerging field that countries are competing to develop, with Shanghai aiming to create a globally influential "Satellite Internet City" [2] - Shanghai is advancing key technological breakthroughs in satellite design, communication payloads, ground terminal equipment, and operational services to achieve self-control in critical areas [2] - The city is establishing a sustainable and self-controlled technological closed loop, focusing on network architecture, spatial perception, testing validation, and space safety through innovation labs and testing platforms [2] Group 2: Capacity System - Shanghai is constructing a leading satellite internet industry cluster through a "2+X" model, with major clusters in Songjiang and Pudong, and additional support from regions like Qingpu and Minhang [3] - The conference will include a signing ceremony for ecological partners in the satellite internet industry chain, promoting collaboration across research, manufacturing, testing, and operations [3] - A demand roadmap will be released, covering satellite manufacturing, constellation networking, terminal development, and application scenarios in urban governance, emergency communication, and public services [3] Group 3: Institutional Framework - The conference will address institutional measures to ensure long-term support for the industry, emphasizing talent development and capital support [4] - Shanghai is implementing a dual engine of "talent + capital," providing financial rewards for high-end talent and fostering partnerships between leading companies and educational institutions [4] - A financial service matrix for the satellite internet industry will be launched to create a stable and predictable capital support system [5]

Core Insights - The National Space Administration has released the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025-2027)", integrating commercial space into the overall national space development framework [2] - By 2027, the goals include efficient collaboration in the industrial ecosystem, safe and orderly research and production, significant growth in industry scale, enhanced innovation vitality, coordinated resource capabilities, and improved industry governance [2] Industry Overview - Commercial space activities are market-driven and profit-oriented, covering satellite manufacturing, rocket launches, and satellite applications [2] - The commercial space sector in China has seen rapid development, with significant improvements in research and construction efficiency, and continuous growth in industry scale [2][3] - The market size of China's commercial space is projected to reach 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with estimates of 2.5 to 2.8 trillion yuan in 2025 [2] Investment and Financing - The financing total for China's commercial space is expected to exceed 20 billion yuan in 2024, with projections of 25 to 28 billion yuan for 2025 [2] - The plan emphasizes the importance of market principles and commercial operating rules in the development of the commercial space sector [3] Technological Innovation - The "queue for launches" phenomenon indicates that rocket launches have become routine, reflecting the sharing of technological achievements in the space sector [3] - The plan aims to establish mechanisms for promoting national space technology achievements in commercial space and to enhance the role of commercial space enterprises in innovation [4] Market Expansion - The plan highlights the need to expand the civil application of commercial space to provide a market foundation and drive for development [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set a goal for satellite communication applications, including direct satellite connections for mobile phones, to exceed ten million users by 2030 [4] Capital Investment - Strengthening capital investment is crucial, with government funding serving as a guide and social capital as a sustaining force [5] - The establishment of a national commercial space development fund is proposed to encourage collaboration between local governments, financial institutions, and social capital [5] - The plan calls for a project promotion mechanism to select innovative and demonstrative commercial space projects for funding [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a significant rise, particularly in the satellite navigation sector, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like China Satellite and Aerospace Electronics, indicating a positive trend in the satellite industry [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major A-share indices have risen, with the satellite navigation sector leading the gains [1]. - China Satellite's stock increased by over 6%, while Aerospace Electronics rose by more than 4% [1]. - Satellite ETFs, including those from E Fund and GF Fund, also experienced substantial growth, with increases of over 4% and 3.7% respectively [1]. Group 2: ETF Details - The Satellite Industry ETF rose by 4.17%, with an estimated scale of 627 million [2]. - E Fund's Satellite ETF increased by 4.14%, with an estimated scale of 413 million [2]. - The index tracked by E Fund's Satellite ETF includes 50 companies involved in satellite manufacturing, launching, communication, navigation, and remote sensing, indicating a comprehensive coverage of the industry [2]. Group 3: Industry Developments - On November 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the official launch of commercial trials for satellite IoT services, aimed at providing low-speed data connections in areas lacking ground networks [3]. - This initiative marks a shift from demonstration to large-scale commercial use, addressing connectivity issues in remote areas and potentially increasing demand for satellite manufacturing and services [3]. - The trial is expected to drive the entire satellite industry chain, including manufacturing, launch services, and operational platforms [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Huaxi Securities noted that satellite networks are foundational for 6G construction, with the issuance of satellite internet licenses marking a critical step towards commercial operation [4]. - The satellite communication market in China is projected to exceed 80 billion in 2023, with an expected annual growth rate of approximately 15% from 2024 to 2029, potentially surpassing 200 billion by 2029 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has identified commercial aerospace as a strategic emerging industry, signaling a wave of investment and financing opportunities in China's commercial aerospace sector [1] Investment and Financing Trends - Since the fourth quarter of this year, investment and financing in the commercial aerospace sector have remained robust, with companies like Tianbing Technology, Infinite Aerospace, Interstellar Light Remote, and Juntian Aerospace making significant financing progress across various sub-sectors including rocket R&D, satellite manufacturing, and payload equipment [1] - Leading companies such as Blue Arrow Aerospace, CAS Space, Tianbing Technology, and Xinghe Power have initiated listing guidance, aiming to leverage capital markets to transition the industry from a phase of technological breakthroughs to one focused on building industrial capabilities [1] Industry Perspective - Industry insiders suggest that the financing boom in the commercial aerospace sector should be viewed through the lens of national strategy, technological logic, and industrial realities, emphasizing that commercial aerospace is not merely a speculative game [1] - There is a call for capital markets to evaluate potential "thoroughbreds" and "evergreens" in China's commercial aerospace sector from multiple dimensions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market in May showed a pattern of fluctuating trends with rapid sector rotation, indicating a lack of sustained momentum and clear profit-making opportunities. The expectation for June is a shift towards large-cap growth stocks, with core assets expected to show early signs of profit recovery [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - In May, various sectors were frequently speculated upon, including Huawei's HarmonyOS, military aircraft, and innovative drugs, reflecting poor market sustainability and rapid rotation among sectors [1]. - The anticipated market style for June is a transition to large-cap growth, with a focus on core assets showing profit inflection points [1]. Group 2: Emerging Hot Topics for June - **Low-altitude Economy**: Recent policies in regions like Sichuan and Shandong support low-altitude economic development, including a 30 billion yuan special fund and the establishment of 400 digital takeoff and landing platforms [3]. - **AI and Robotics**: Significant breakthroughs in AI technology have been noted, with advancements in models from Anthropic and Google, as well as ongoing optimizations in domestic models like Baidu's Wenxin and iFlytek's Spark [5]. - **6G Technology**: The global research on 6G technology standards has officially commenced, with China leading the development process, aiming to complete the first version of technical specifications by 2029 [6]. - **Semiconductor Self-sufficiency**: The U.S. has intensified semiconductor export controls against China, prompting accelerated domestic alternatives and a notable increase in the domestic EDA tool localization rate to 35% within a week [7]. - **Federal Reserve Policy Shift**: The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to provide economic outlooks, with market speculation leaning towards potential interest rate cuts in late 2025, which could benefit high-debt sectors like real estate and consumer goods [8]. Group 3: Key Companies and Sectors - **Low-altitude Economy**: Key players include SF Holding (drone delivery network), Zhongyun Drone (military-to-civil technology), and Huace Navigation (low-altitude smart network) [3][4]. - **AI and Robotics**: Core companies include Zhongke Shuguang (computing chips), Inspur Information (servers), and Keda Xunfei (AI applications in education and healthcare) [5][4]. - **6G Technology**: Major companies involved are ZTE Corporation (base station equipment) and China Satellite Communications (satellite manufacturing) [6][4]. - **Semiconductors**: Key firms include Zhongwei Company (etching machines) and Zhaoyi Innovation (NOR Flash) [7][4]. - **Real Estate and Gold**: Notable companies are Poly Development (state-owned enterprise reform) and Shandong Gold (benefiting from rising gold prices) [8][4].

Group 1 - The report by Ruishou Analysis highlights that from 2014 to Q1 2025, 561 commercial aerospace companies received market financing, with 120 of them being listed companies, primarily focusing on satellite manufacturing, ground equipment, and satellite applications [1] - The highest financing activity in commercial aerospace is expected in 2024, with a historical peak of 138 financing events and a disclosed financing amount of 20.239 billion yuan [1] - The IPO process has faced significant obstacles, leading to a sharp decline in the number of listed companies, with only 4 companies going public in 2023, a 50% decrease year-on-year, and only one expected in 2024 [1] Group 2 - In the past three years, active investment institutions in the commercial aerospace sector include Fangzheng Hesheng Investment and Shenzhen High-tech Investment, with 618 investment institutions participating in financing events from 2022 to Q1 2025 [2] - Among the participating institutions, 587 are VC/PE firms (94%), while 31 are CVCs (6%), with Fangzheng Hesheng Investment being the most active, investing in 11 companies [2] - Future investment opportunities in China's commercial aerospace sector include satellite manufacturing, rocket manufacturing and launching, ground equipment manufacturing, satellite operations, and satellite applications [2]