1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising and then falling, and slightly closing lower. The closing price dropped 0.06% to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread narrowed to 95 yuan/ton. As the new rubber - tapping season approaches, Shanghai rubber lacks the impetus to continue rising, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, stabilizing and rebounding, and sharply closing higher. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,904 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,688 yuan/ton. At the close, it sharply rose 4.60% to 2,726 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread widened to 156 yuan/ton. Affected by short - term geopolitical risks, methanol continued to rise, but lacked fundamental support. It is expected that the methanol futures may run out of steam in the future [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, strongly rising, and sharply closing higher. The futures price rose to a maximum of 776.0 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 665.2 yuan/barrel. At the close, it sharply rose 11.26% to 722.3 yuan/barrel. As Iran continued to block the Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical risks increased again, and the crude oil premium rebounded. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price may maintain a high - level volatile trend in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 680,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons or 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 119,600 tons, an increase of 1.27%, and the general trade inventory was 560,900 tons, a decrease of 0.18%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 4.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.70 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.89 percentage points [9]. - As of March 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises actively resumed work and production, and most enterprises had returned to the normal level during the week, which boosted the capacity utilization rate of the overall sample enterprises. It is expected that there is still a small room for improvement in the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises next week. However, the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has increased the resistance to order shipments in the Middle East, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises [9]. - In February 2026, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index for February 2026. Affected by factors such as holidays, the logistics activity slowed down steadily. The China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in February 2026 was 47.5%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous month. The number of effective working days this month was significantly less than in previous years. At the same time, the business activity expectation index in February was 51%, remaining in the expansion range [10]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.41%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.11%, a month - on - month slight increase of 1.73%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.70%. During the same period, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0732 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 16,400 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 64,200 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 129,400 tons compared with 1.9438 million tons last year [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 28.27%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.61%. For dimethyl ether, the operating rate was maintained at 6.27%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.35%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.73%, a week - on - week slight increase of 5.81%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.83%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.65%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.44 percentage points and a month - on - month slight increase of 2.65%. As of February 27, 2026, the futures contract profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 43 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 39 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant increase of 246 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 975,300 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 32,600 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 44,600 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 76,200 tons. As of the week of March 12, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 523,100 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 29,300 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 182,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 140,400 tons compared with 382,700 tons last year [12]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of March 6, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week slight increase of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 93. As of the week of March 6, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.678 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 18,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year slight increase of 103,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of March 6, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 443 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.824 million barrels and a year - on - year slight increase of 778,000 barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, in the United States reached 26.58 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 117,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 415.442 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 100,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 90.8%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.6 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 1.4 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 4.3 percentage points [13]. - As of March 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was maintained at 172,150 contracts, a week - on - week slight decrease of 562 contracts and a significant increase of 33,041 contracts or 23.75% compared with the average in February of 139,109 contracts. On the other hand, as of March 3, 2026, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was maintained at 246,514 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 54,198 contracts and a significant increase of 85,120 contracts or 52.74% compared with the average in February of 161,394 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 17,000 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 17,075 yuan/ton | - 105 yuan/ton | - 75 yuan/ton | +105 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,710 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,726 yuan/ton | +68 yuan/ton | - 16 yuan/ton | - 68 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 592.6 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 722.3 yuan/barrel | +60.3 yuan/barrel | - 129.7 yuan/barrel | - 60.0 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: There are charts related to rubber, including rubber basis, rubber 5 - 9 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][19][22][24][26]. - **Methanol**: There are charts related to methanol, including methanol basis, methanol 5 - 9 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32][34][36][38]. - **Crude Oil**: There are charts related to crude oil, including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [40][42][44][46][48][50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and rising slightly. The futures price closed up 1.63% to 17,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread converged to 110 yuan/ton. As the new rubber tapping season approaches, Shanghai rubber lacks the impetus to continue rising, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation trend in the future [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, stabilizing and rebounding, and rising significantly. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,715 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,490 yuan/ton, closing up 2.27% to 2,658 yuan/ton. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread expanded to 133 yuan/ton. Affected by short - term geopolitical risks, methanol continued to rise, but lacked fundamental support. It is expected that the methanol futures price may lack upward momentum in the future [7]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening and falling, and dropping significantly. The futures price rose to a maximum of 680.0 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 619.1 yuan/barrel, closing down 9.61% to 662.0 yuan/barrel. As some oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the geopolitical risks were weakened, and crude oil gave back some of its premium. However, the US - Iran conflict is still ongoing, and crude oil may strengthen again in the future or maintain a high - level oscillating trend [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 680,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons or 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 119,600 tons, an increase of 1.27%, and the general trade inventory was 560,900 tons, a decrease of 0.18%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 4.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.70 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.89 percentage points [9]. - As of March 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises actively resumed work and production, and most enterprises had returned to normal levels, boosting the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that there is still a small room for improvement in the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises next week. However, the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has increased the resistance to order shipments in the Middle East, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate [9]. - In February 2026, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line. In February 2026, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 47.5%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous month. The effective working days in this month were significantly less than in previous years. The business activity expectation index in February was 51%, remaining in the expansion range [10]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.41%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%, a month - on - month increase of 1.73%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.70%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0732 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64,200 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 129,400 tons compared with 1.9438 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 28.27%, a week - on - week increase of 1.61%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 6.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.73%, a week - on - week increase of 5.81%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.44 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.65%. As of February 27, 2026, the futures contract profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 43 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 246 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 975,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44,600 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 76,200 tons. As of the week of March 5, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 552,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 142,300 tons compared with 410,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 407, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 79. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 600 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 188,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 439 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.475 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 5.504 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 26.463 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.564 million barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, unchanged from the previous week. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.3 percentage points [13]. - As of March 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was maintained at 172,150 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 562 contracts and a significant increase of 33,041 contracts or 23.75% compared with the February average of 139,109 contracts. As of March 3, 2026, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was maintained at 246,514 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 54,198 contracts and a significant increase of 85,120 contracts or 52.74% compared with the February average of 161,394 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 17,000 yuan/ton | +250 yuan/ton | 17,180 yuan/ton | +65 yuan/ton | - 180 yuan/ton | +185 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,670 yuan/ton | +65 yuan/ton | 2,658 yuan/ton | +109 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | - 44 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 615.5 yuan/barrel | - 83.6 yuan/barrel | 662.0 yuan/barrel | - 4.3 yuan/barrel | - 46.5 yuan/barrel | - 79.3 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - spread, inventory, and operating rate charts, but no specific content analysis of these charts is provided in the text [16 - 51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly closing up. The closing price rose 0.32% to 17,115 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread converged to 120 yuan/ton. As the new rubber tapping season approaches, Shanghai rubber lacks the impetus to continue rising, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating consolidation trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening downward, and significantly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,799 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,375 yuan/ton. At the close, it significantly closed down 7.58% to 2,549 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 86 yuan/ton. As the geopolitical risk significantly cools down, the methanol premium is given back, and the futures price starts to correct. Due to the lack of fundamental support, it is expected that the methanol futures price may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the 2604 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, weakening downward, and significantly falling. The futures price rose to a maximum of 818.0 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 625.0 yuan/barrel. At the close, the futures price significantly fell 10.76% to 666.3 yuan/barrel. As US President Trump said that military operations may be nearing the end and the shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz is gradually restored, the geopolitical risk significantly cools down, and the crude oil premium is significantly given back. Against the background that the bullish factors are significantly digested, it is expected that the domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the future [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 680,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons, an increase of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 119,600 tons, an increase of 1.27%; the general trade inventory was 560,900 tons, a decrease of 0.18%. The warehousing rate of the bonded warehouse of the Qingdao natural rubber sample decreased by 4.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.70 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.89 percentage points [9]. - As of March 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of Chinese semi - steel tires was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of all - steel tires was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises actively resumed work and production, and most enterprises had returned to the normal level during the week, which boosted the capacity utilization rate of the overall sample enterprises. It is expected that there is still a small room for improvement in the capacity utilization rate of the tire sample enterprises next week. At present, the production scheduling of each enterprise has basically returned to the normal level, which will drive the overall capacity utilization rate next week. However, the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has increased the resistance to the shipment of orders in the Middle East, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises [9]. - In February 2026, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in February 2026. Affected by factors such as holidays, the logistics activity slowed down steadily. The China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in February 2026 was 47.5%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous month. The number of effective working days this month was significantly less than in previous years. At the same time, the business activity expectation index in February was 51%, remaining in the expansion range [10]. - In February 2026, about 75,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of the Chinese heavy - duty truck industry exceeded 180,000, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.41%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.11%, a month - on - month slight increase of 1.73%, and a significant increase of 8.70% compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the average weekly output of methanol in China reached 2.0732 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 16,400 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 64,200 tons, and a significant increase of 129,400 tons compared with 1.9438 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 28.27%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.61%. At the same time, in terms of dimethyl ether, the operating rate was maintained at 6.27%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.35%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.73%, a week - on - week slight increase of 5.81%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.83%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.65%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.44 percentage points and a month - on - month slight increase of 2.65%. As of February 27, 2026, the futures disk profit of domestic methanol to olefins was 43 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 39 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant recovery of 246 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the methanol inventory in the ports of East and South China in China was maintained at 975,300 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 32,600 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 44,600 tons, and a slight increase of 76,200 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of March 5, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 552,400 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 17,100 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 184,000 tons, and a significant increase of 142,300 tons compared with 410,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 407, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2 and a decrease of 79 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 600,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year slight increase of 1.88 million barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 439 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.475 million barrels and a slight increase of 5.504 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, in the United States reached 26.463 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.564 million barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 415.212 million barrels, unchanged week - on - week. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 89.2%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 3.3 percentage points [13]. - As of March 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 172,150 contracts, a week - on - week slight decrease of 562 contracts and a significant increase of 33,041 contracts compared with the average of 139,109 contracts in February, an increase of 23.75%. On the other hand, as of March 3, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 246,514 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 54,198 contracts and a significant increase of 85,120 contracts compared with the average of 161,394 contracts in February, an increase of 52.74% [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,950 yuan/ton | +350 yuan/ton | 17,115 yuan/ton | +220 yuan/ton | - 165 yuan/ton | - 220 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,935 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,549 yuan/ton | - 281 yuan/ton | +386 yuan/ton | +281 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 555.4 yuan/barrel | - 1.5 yuan/barrel | 666.3 yuan/barrel | - 105.5 yuan/barrel | - 110.9 yuan/barrel | +104.0 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][19][22][24][27]. - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][31][33][35][37][39]. - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [43][45][46][48][50][53].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 may maintain a weak and volatile trend on Tuesday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend - The short - term trend of crude oil 2604 is volatile and strong, the medium - term trend is volatile and strong, the intraday trend is volatile and weak, and the reference view is also volatile and weak [1]. Driving Logic - As US President Trump signaled the possible end of the war against Iran, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East declined rapidly, the crude oil premium significantly reversed, and international crude oil futures prices pulled back sharply from high levels, weakening the bullish sentiment in the energy and chemical commodities. With the rise of inflation expectations, the global central banks' interest - rate cut cycle may end early and an interest - rate hike cycle may begin, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. Against this backdrop, the domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract showed a high - level pullback during the night session on Monday, and the futures price converged its gains [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - On Monday, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating strongly and closing slightly higher, with the closing price rising 1.44% to 16,895 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread converged to 120 yuan/ton. As the new tapping season approaches, Shanghai rubber lacks upward momentum, and it is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend [6]. - On Monday, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, strong upward movement and a sharp increase. The price reached a maximum of 2,881 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,646 yuan/ton, closing with a sharp increase of 11.99% to 2,830 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread widened to 194 yuan/ton. Affected by short - term geopolitical risks, methanol has continued to rise, but lacks fundamental support, and it is expected that the upward trend of methanol futures prices may weaken [7]. - On Monday, the 2604 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of decreasing volume, increasing positions, strong upward movement and a sharp increase. The price reached a maximum of 771.8 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 715.0 yuan/barrel, closing with a sharp increase of 16.99% to 771.8 yuan/barrel. With the continuous escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran, crude oil exports have stagnated, supply has fallen into shortage, and the crude oil premium has been realized. After the negative news that the US may end the war soon and the G7 will release strategic reserve crude oil emerged, it is expected that the upward trend of oil prices may weaken and maintain a high - level volatile trend [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons or 1.82%. The bonded area inventory was 118,100 tons, with a growth rate of 6.52%; the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, with a growth rate of 0.89%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 6.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.39 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 8.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.02 percentage points [9]. - As of March 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises actively resumed work and production, and most enterprises had returned to normal levels, boosting the capacity utilization rate of the overall sample enterprises. It is expected that there is still a small room for improvement in the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises next week. However, the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has increased the resistance to order shipments in the Middle East, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises [9]. - In February 2026, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line. In February 2026, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 47.5%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous month. The number of effective working days in this month was significantly less than in previous years. At the same time, the business activity expectation index in February was 51%, remaining in the expansion range [10]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decline of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.41%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.11%, a small month - on - month increase of 1.73%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.70%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0732 million tons, a small week - on - week increase of 16,400 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 64,200 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 129,400 tons compared with 1.9438 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 28.27%, a small week - on - week increase of 1.61%. For dimethyl ether, the operating rate was maintained at 6.27%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.35%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.73%, a small week - on - week increase of 5.81%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.83%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.44 percentage points and a small month - on - month increase of 2.65%. As of February 27, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was 43 yuan/ton, a small week - on - week recovery of 39 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month recovery of 246 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 975,300 tons, a small week - on - week increase of 32,600 tons, a small month - on - month decrease of 44,600 tons, and a small year - on - year increase of 76,200 tons. As of the week of March 5, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 552,400 tons, a small week - on - week increase of 17,100 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 142,300 tons compared with 410,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 407, a small week - on - week decrease of 2 and a decrease of 79 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average daily US crude oil production was 13.696 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 6,000 barrels per day and a small year - on - year increase of 188,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 439 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 3.475 million barrels and a small year - on - year increase of 5.504 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 26.463 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 1.564 million barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.2%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points, a small month - on - month decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and a small year - on - year increase of 3.3 percentage points [13]. - As of March 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 172,150, a slight week - on - week decrease of 562 and a significant increase of 33,041 or 23.75% compared with the February average of 139,109. On the other hand, as of March 3, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 246,514, a significant week - on - week decrease of 54,198 and a significant increase of 85,120 or 52.74% compared with the February average of 161,394 [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,600 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 16,895 yuan/ton | + 60 yuan/ton | - 295 yuan/ton | - 60 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,560 yuan/ton | + 25 yuan/ton | 2,830 yuan/ton | + 244 yuan/ton | - 270 yuan/ton | - 244 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 556.9 yuan/barrel | + 1.5 yuan/barrel | 771.8 yuan/barrel | + 107.0 yuan/barrel | - 214.9 yuan/barrel | - 105.4 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Includes charts such as rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][18] - Methanol: Includes charts such as methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: Includes charts such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [40][42][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: On Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly closing higher. The closing price rose slightly by 0.87% to 16,835 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread narrowed to 85 yuan/ton. As the new rubber - tapping season approaches, Shanghai rubber lacks the impetus to continue rising, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures will maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Friday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rebounding. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,614 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,463 yuan/ton. At the close, it rebounded significantly by 2.33% to 2,586 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread widened to 108 yuan/ton. With the short - term geopolitical risks gradually digested and the lack of support from the domestic supply - demand fundamentals, methanol lacks the continuous upward momentum. It is expected that the methanol futures will maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Friday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 696.6 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 622.1 yuan/barrel. At the close, the price slightly decreased by 0.14% to 664.8 yuan/barrel. As Iran announced that it has not completely blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the bullish expectation has weakened, and part of the crude oil premium has been reversed. However, the US - Iran conflict is still ongoing, and it is expected that the oil price will maintain a high - level volatile consolidation trend in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons, or 1.82%. The bonded area inventory was 118,100 tons, an increase of 6.52%; the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, an increase of 0.89%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouses for the Qingdao natural rubber samples decreased by 6.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.39 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouses decreased by 8.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.02 percentage points [9]. - As of March 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of China's semi - steel tires was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of all - steel tires was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises actively resumed production, and most enterprises have returned to the normal level this week, which boosted the capacity utilization rate of the overall sample enterprises. It is expected that there is still a small room for improvement in the capacity utilization rate of the tire sample enterprises next week. Currently, the production schedules of each enterprise have basically returned to the normal level, which will drive the overall capacity utilization rate next week. However, the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has increased the resistance to the order shipments in the Middle East, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises [9]. - In February 2026, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line [10]. - In February 2026, about 75,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market (wholesale volume, including exports and new energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales volume of the Chinese heavy - duty truck industry exceeded 180,000, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.41%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.11%, a month - on - month small increase of 1.73%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.70%. During the same period, the average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0732 million tons, a week - on - week small increase of 16,400 tons, a month - on - month small increase of 64,200 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 129,400 tons compared with 1.9438 million tons last year [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 28.27%, a week - on - week small increase of 1.61%. For dimethyl ether, the operating rate was maintained at 6.27%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.35%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.73%, a week - on - week small increase of 5.81%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.83%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.65%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.44 percentage points and a month - on - month small increase of 2.65%. As of February 27, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was 43 yuan/ton, a week - on - week small recovery of 39 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant recovery of 246 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the methanol inventory in the ports of East and South China was maintained at 975,300 tons, a week - on - week small increase of 32,600 tons, a month - on - month small decrease of 44,600 tons, and a small year - on - year increase of 76,200 tons. As of the week of March 5, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 552,400 tons, a week - on - week small increase of 17,100 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 184,000 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 142,300 tons compared with 410,100 tons last year [12][13]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 407, a week - on - week small decrease of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 79. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 600,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year small increase of 1.88 million barrels per day, which was at a historical high [14]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding the strategic petroleum reserve) reached 439 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.475 million barrels and a year - on - year small increase of 5.504 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, United States reached 26.463 million barrels, a week - on - week small increase of 1.564 million barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 415.212 million barrels, which was flat week - on - week. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 89.2%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month small decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year small increase of 3.3 percentage points [14]. - As of February 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 172,712 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 31,369 contracts and a significant increase of 99,898 contracts compared with the average of 72,814 contracts in January, with an increase of 137.20%. On the other hand, as of February 24, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 300,712 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 50,696 contracts and a significant increase of 116,266 contracts compared with the average of 184,446 contracts in January, with an increase of 63.04% [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from the Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from the Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,900 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 16,835 yuan/ton | +280 yuan/ton | +65 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,600 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 2,586 yuan/ton | +99 yuan/ton | +14 yuan/ton | +1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 579.4 yuan/barrel | +3.2 yuan/barrel | 664.8 yuan/barrel | +0.7 yuan/barrel | - 85.4 yuan/barrel | +2.5 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][19][21][24][26][28]. - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35][37][39][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [45][47][48][50][52][54].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai Rubber Futures 2605 contract showed a volatile consolidation trend. As the new rubber tapping season approaches, Shanghai rubber lacks the momentum to continue rising, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a volatile and weakening trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures 2605 contract showed a volatile and stable trend. Affected by short - term geopolitical risks, methanol has continued to rise, but it lacks fundamental support. It is expected that the methanol futures price may have limited upward momentum in the future [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract showed a volatile upward trend. With the military conflict between the US and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil exports are stagnant, supply is in short - supply, and the crude oil premium has increased significantly. It is expected that the oil price may maintain a volatile and strengthening trend in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 67.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22 tons or 1.82%. The inventory in the bonded area increased by 6.52%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.89%. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses decreased. As of February 27, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 30.77%, and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 26.04%, both showing significant month - on - month increases. The inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers in February 2026 was 56.2%. In February 2026, the sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 7.5 tons, and the cumulative sales from January to February increased by about 17% year - on - year [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 87.41%, with a slight week - on - week increase. The weekly average methanol output was 207.32 tons, also showing an increase. The operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde and acetic acid changed to varying degrees. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.65%. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was 97.53 tons, and the inland methanol inventory was 55.24 tons, both showing week - on - week increases [11][12][13]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of February 27, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 407, a week - on - week decrease. The US crude oil daily output was 1.3696 billion barrels, slightly down week - on - week. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased significantly week - on - week. The refinery operating rate was 89.2%. The non - commercial net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil increased significantly week - on - week [14][15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai rubber was 16,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the futures main contract price was 16,825 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton. - The spot price of methanol was 2,535 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 2,538 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. - The spot price of crude oil was 576.2 yuan/barrel, an increase of 20 yuan/barrel, and the futures main contract price was 703.6 yuan/barrel, an increase of 62.5 yuan/barrel [17]. 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][19][23][25]. - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][34][36][38][40]. - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][44][46][48][50][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Rubber**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, opening high and moving low, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The closing price dropped slightly by 1.55% to 16,835 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread narrowed to 130 yuan/ton. As the new rubber tapping season approaches, Shanghai rubber lacks the impetus to continue rising, and it is expected that Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising strongly, and closing sharply higher. The futures price reached a maximum of 2,557 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,394 yuan/ton, closing sharply up 11.03% at 2,557 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread widened to 99 yuan/ton. With the military conflict between the US and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, methanol外运 has stagnated, supply has fallen into shortage, and the methanol premium has increased significantly. It is expected that the methanol futures price may maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the future [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising strongly, and closing sharply higher. The futures price reached a maximum of 572.3 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 544.1 yuan/barrel, closing sharply up 12.00% at 572.3 yuan/barrel. With the military conflict between the US and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil外运 has stagnated, supply has fallen into shortage, and the crude oil premium has increased significantly. It is expected that the oil price may maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 67.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22 tons or 1.82%. Bonded area inventory was 11.81 tons, an increase of 6.52%; general trade inventory was 56.18 tons, an increase of 0.89%. The inbound and outbound rates of sample bonded and general trade warehouses decreased [11]. - As of February 27, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 30.77%, a month - on - month increase of 18.57 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 49.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 26.04%, a month - on - month increase of 13.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 42.11 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises in the next cycle still has an obvious upward expectation [11]. - In February 2026, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2 percentage points, and the index was above the boom - bust line [12]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [12]. Methanol - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.41%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.11%, a small month - on - month increase of 1.73%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.70%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0732 million tons, a small week - on - week increase of 16,400 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 64,200 tons, and a significant increase of 129,400 tons compared with 1.9438 million tons in the same period last year [13]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 28.27%, a small week - on - week increase of 1.61%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 6.27%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.35%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.73%, a small week - on - week increase of 5.81%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.83%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.44 percentage points and a small month - on - month increase of 2.65% [13]. - As of February 27, 2026, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was 43 yuan/ton, a small week - on - week recovery of 39 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month recovery of 246 yuan/ton [13]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 975,300 tons, a small week - on - week increase of 32,600 tons, a small month - on - month decrease of 44,600 tons, and a small year - on - year increase of 76,200 tons. As of the week of February 25, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 535,300 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 195,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 81,100 tons, and a significant increase of 150,700 tons compared with 384,600 tons in the same period last year [14][15]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week increase of 0 and a decrease of 79 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.702 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 33,000 barrels per day and a slight year - on - year increase of 200,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [16]. - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 435.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 15.989 million barrels and a small year - on - year increase of 5.643 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.899 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 881,000 barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 88.6%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a slight month - on - month decrease of 2.3 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points [16]. - As of February 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 172,712 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 31,369 contracts and a significant increase of 99,898 contracts compared with the average of 72,814 contracts in January, with an increase of 137.20%. As of February 24, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 300,712 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 50,696 contracts and a significant increase of 116,266 contracts compared with the average of 184,446 contracts in January, with an increase of 63.04% [17]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,850 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 16,835 yuan/ton | - 410 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | +460 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,480 yuan/ton | +125 yuan/ton | 2,557 yuan/ton | +192 yuan/ton | - 77 yuan/ton | - 67 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 512.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 572.3 yuan/barrel | +44.5 yuan/barrel | - 59.5 yuan/barrel | - 45.6 yuan/barrel | [19] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides multiple charts including rubber basis, May - September spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [20][22][24][28][30][32]. - **Methanol**: The report provides multiple charts including methanol basis, May - September spread, domestic methanol port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [33][35][37][39][41][43]. - **Crude Oil**: The report provides multiple charts including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [46][48][50][52][54][56].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, oscillating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The closing price rose 0.91% to 17,245 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 spread widened to 145 yuan/ton. Supported by the bullish atmosphere of energy - chemical commodities, the rubber market maintained a bullish trend, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may continue to oscillate strongly [6]. - The methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, strongly rising, and closing sharply higher. The price reached a maximum of 2,365 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,209 yuan/ton, closing with a sharp increase of 8.04% to 2,365 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 spread converged to 2 yuan/ton. Due to the military conflict between the US and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, methanol exports were stagnant, supply was in short - supply, and the premium of methanol increased significantly. It is expected that the methanol futures price may continue to oscillate strongly [7]. - The crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, strongly rising, and closing sharply higher. The price reached a maximum of 527.8 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 495.0 yuan/barrel, closing with a sharp increase of 8.98% to 527.8 yuan/barrel. Due to the military conflict between the US and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil exports were stagnant, supply was in short - supply, and the premium of crude oil increased significantly. It is expected that the oil price may continue to oscillate strongly [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 667,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 61,000 tons or 10.05%. The bonded area inventory was 110,800 tons with a 12% increase, and the general trade inventory was 556,900 tons with a 9.67% increase. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 6.8 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.38 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.65 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.36 percentage points [9]. - As of February 27, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 30.77%, a month - on - month increase of 18.57 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 49.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 26.04%, a month - on - month increase of 13.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 42.11 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will continue to increase significantly in the next period [9]. - In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. The production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, and the sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, with a month - on - month decrease of 25.7% and 28.3% respectively. The passenger car market declined, while the commercial vehicle market continued to improve [10]. - In January 2026, China's Logistics Prosperity Index (LPI) was 51.2%, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.2 percentage points, still in the expansion range above 50%. In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, basically the same as in December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year. It is expected that the wholesale sales of the heavy - truck industry in the first quarter of this year will increase slightly year - on - year [10]. Methanol - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 87.41%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.11%, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.73%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.70%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0732 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 16,400 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 64,200 tons, and a significant increase of 129,400 tons compared with 1.9438 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 28.27%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.61%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.27%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.35%; the acetic acid operating rate was 85.73%, a slight week - on - week increase of 5.81%; the MTBE operating rate was 55.83%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.44 percentage points and a slight month - on - month increase of 2.65% [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was 43 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week increase of 39 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month increase of 246 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 975,300 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 32,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 44,600 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 76,200 tons. As of the week of February 25, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 535,300 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 195,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 81,100 tons, and a significant increase of 150,700 tons compared with 384,600 tons in the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 409, a week - on - week increase of 0 and a decrease of 79 compared with the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the US was 13.702 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 33,000 barrels/day and a slight year - on - year increase of 200,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 435.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 15.989 million barrels and a slight year - on - year increase of 5.643 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 24.899 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 881,000 barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 415.212 million barrels, unchanged week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was 88.6%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a slight month - on - month decrease of 2.3 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points [13]. - As of February 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 172,712 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 31,369 contracts and a significant increase of 99,898 contracts compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts, with an increase of 137.20%. As of February 24, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 300,712 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 50,696 contracts and a significant increase of 116,266 contracts compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts, with an increase of 63.04% [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 17,000 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 17,245 yuan/ton | +90 yuan/ton | - 245 yuan/ton | - 40 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,310 yuan/ton | +55 yuan/ton | 2,365 yuan/ton | +186 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | - 131 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 472.8 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 527.8 yuan/barrel | +39.4 yuan/barrel | - 55 yuan/barrel | - 39.4 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts of rubber basis, 5 - 9 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20][23][25][27]. - Methanol: The report provides charts of methanol basis, 5 - 9 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32][34][36][38]. - Crude Oil: The report provides charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45][47][49][51].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View - The report believes that the short - term and intraday view of crude oil 2604 is bullish, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The overall view is bullish, driven by geopolitical risk premium, tight supply - demand balance, and domestic resumption of work demand [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Price and Performance - After the Spring Festival, the domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract rose 6.18% to 493.3 yuan/barrel [5]. Core Driving Factors - Geopolitical factors: The repeated situation in the Middle East is the core variable of oil price fluctuations. The limited progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, the US troop increase in the Middle East, and Iran's military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz during the Spring Festival have increased market concerns about supply interruption. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's seaborne crude oil passes, any tension escalation may increase the risk premium of oil prices. The continuous disturbance of Red Sea shipping has also pushed up transportation costs and magnified the transmission effect of geopolitical risks on oil prices [5]. - Supply - demand relationship: The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the demand from domestic resumption of work also drives the oil price [5]. Market Characteristics and Risks - In the short term, oil prices are dominated by geopolitics and supported by fundamentals, with obvious characteristics of high - level and high - volatility. Attention should be paid to events and data rhythms, and the callback pressure caused by the ebb of risk premium should be guarded against [5].