投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 3 月 5 日 橡胶甲醇原油 强弱继续分化 能化涨跌互现 核心观点 橡胶：本周四国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现震荡整理的走势。随 着新一轮割胶期临近，沪胶缺乏继续上涨的动力，预计后市沪胶期货 或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 宝城期货金融研究所 甲醇：本周四国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现震荡企稳的走势。受 短期地缘风险的情绪影响，甲醇持续上涨，但缺乏基本面支撑，预计 后市甲醇期货价格或涨势乏力。 宝城期货投资咨询部 原油：本周四国内原油期货 2604 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 橡胶：本周二国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现放量减仓，高开低走， 震荡偏弱，小幅收低的走势。收盘时期价小幅收低 1.55%至 16835 元/ 吨。5-9 月差升水幅度收敛至 130 元/吨。随着新一轮割胶期临近，沪 胶缺乏继续上涨的动力，预计后市沪胶期货或维持高位震荡的走势。 宝城期货金融研究所 甲醇：本周二国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现放量减仓，强势上行， 大幅收涨的走势，期价最高上涨至 2557 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2394 元/吨，收盘时大幅收涨 11.03%至 2557 元/吨。5-9 月差升水幅度扩大 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 3 月 2 日 橡胶甲醇原油 地缘风险提振 能化强势上行 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现放量减仓，震荡偏强， 小幅收涨的走势。收盘时期价小幅收涨 0.91%至 17245 元/吨。5-9 月 差升水幅度升阔至 145 元/吨。受益于能化商品偏多氛围支撑，胶市维 持偏多趋势，预计后市沪胶期货或维持震荡偏强的走势。 宝城期货金融研究所 甲醇：本周一国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现放量减仓，强势上行， 大幅收涨的走势 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 品种晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-25 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2604 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险扰动，原油震荡偏强 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：节后归来，国内原油期货 2604 合约大幅收涨 6.18%至 493.3 元/桶。核心由地缘风险溢价、 供应紧平衡、国内复工需求三重驱动共振。中东局势的反复成为油价波动的核心变量。春节期间 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, strong operation, and a significant rise. The closing price increased by 3.90% to 17,030 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 spread widened to 200 yuan/ton. The rubber market has re - entered a bullish trend, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, volatile and upward - biased, and a significant rise. The futures price reached a maximum of 2,297 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,222 yuan/ton, and the closing price increased by 3.02% to 2,285 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 spread narrowed to 19 yuan/ton. The escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East have enhanced the methanol premium, driving the methanol price to stabilize and strengthen. It is expected that the methanol futures may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend in the future [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of decreasing volume and increasing open interest, gapping up, and strong operation. The futures price reached a maximum of 495.0 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 484.3 yuan/barrel, and the closing price increased by 6.18% to 493.3 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated again, the crude oil premium has significantly increased. It is expected that the oil price may maintain a high - level and upward - biased posture in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons or 2.55%. Bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%; general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.58 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.15 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.24 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points [9]. - As of February 13, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points. During the Spring Festival holiday, most tire enterprises shut down, and the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will be at a low point for the year [9]. - In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. Production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, and both decreased by 25.7% and 28.3% month - on - month respectively. The passenger car market declined, while the commercial vehicle market continued to improve. In January, the LPI was 51.2%, a slight month - on - month decline of 1.2 percentage points but still in the expansion range. The heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles in January, a significant year - on - year increase of about 39%, and it is expected that the wholesale sales of the heavy - truck industry in the first quarter of this year will increase slightly year - on - year [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.30%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.68%, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.50%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.11%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0568 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 4,300 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 21,400 tons, and a small increase of 80,600 tons compared with 1.9762 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the operating rates of domestic formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE all decreased slightly week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants increased by 1.21 percentage points week - on - week and 1.62% month - on - month. The futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 71 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week decline of 30 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month recovery of 173 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 942,700 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 18,700 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 101,800 tons, and a small year - on - year increase of 43,600 tons. As of the week of February 12, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 340,300 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 28,100 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 110,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 159,800 tons compared with 500,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a small week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.713 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels per day and a small year - on - year increase of 219,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 428.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 8.53 million barrels and a small year - on - year increase of 969,000 barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 25.113 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 1.071 million barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 100,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.4%, a small week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a small month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points, and a small year - on - year increase of 4.4 percentage points [13]. - As of February 17, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 141,343 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 23,529 contracts and a significant increase of 68,529 contracts compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts, with an increase of 94.12%. As of February 17, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 250,016 contracts, a slight week - on - week decrease of 526 contracts and a significant increase of 65,570 contracts compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts, with an increase of 35.55% [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change in Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,950 yuan/ton | +700 yuan/ton | 17,030 yuan/ton | +715 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,300 yuan/ton | +98 yuan/ton | 2,285 yuan/ton | +97 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | +1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 464.1 yuan/barrel | +23.4 yuan/barrel | 493.3 yuan/barrel | +32.6 yuan/barrel | - 29.2 yuan/barrel | - 9.2 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts such as the rubber basis, 5 - 9 spread,上期所 rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][23]. - **Methanol**: The report contains charts of the methanol basis, 5 - 9 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][33][38]. - **Crude Oil**: The report has charts of the crude oil basis,上期所 crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][48][50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - **Rubber**: On Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The futures price closed 1.42% lower at 16,315 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 120 yuan/ton. The rubber market has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, trading between bulls and bears has become cautious. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures will maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Friday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing significantly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,248 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,187 yuan/ton, closing 2.45% lower at 2,188 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 32 yuan/ton. Dominated by a weak supply - demand fundamental, trading between bulls and bears has become cautious, and methanol futures may maintain a weakly volatile trend [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Friday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and falling significantly. The futures price rose to a maximum of 475.7 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 454.4 yuan/barrel, closing 4.22% lower at 460.7 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East cools down and the peak season for crude oil demand comes to an end, crude oil has gradually weakened. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the external market during the Spring Festival holiday and the geopolitical risk situation in the Middle East [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons and a growth rate of 2.55%. The bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.38%, and the general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, with a growth rate of 2.78%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.58 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.15 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.24 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points [9]. - As of February 13, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, with a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points. During the Spring Festival, most tire enterprises stopped work, and the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will be at a low point for the year [9]. - In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. The production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, and the sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. Compared with the previous month, they decreased by 25.7% and 28.3% respectively. The passenger car market declined, while the commercial vehicle market continued to improve. The China Logistics Prosperity Index (LPI) in January 2026 was 51.2%, slightly down 1.2 percentage points month - on - month but still in the expansion range above 50%. In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, a significant increase of about 39% compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the wholesale sales of the heavy - truck industry in the first quarter of this year will increase slightly year - on - year [10]. Methanol - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.30%, with a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.68%, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.50%, and a significant increase of 6.11% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0568 million tons, with a week - on - week slight decrease of 4,300 tons, a month - on - month small increase of 21,400 tons, and a small increase of 80,600 tons compared with 1.9762 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the operating rates of domestic formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE all decreased slightly week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.21%, with a week - on - week small increase of 1.21 percentage points and a month - on - month small increase of 1.62%. As of February 13, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 71 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week slight decline of 30 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant recovery of 173 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China was maintained at 942,700 tons, with a week - on - week small decrease of 18,700 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 101,800 tons, and a small increase of 43,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of February 12, 2026, the total domestic inland methanol inventory reached 340,300 tons, with a week - on - week small decrease of 28,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 110,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 159,800 tons compared with 500,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a small week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.713 million barrels, with a significant week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels/day and a small year - on - year increase of 219,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 428.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 8.53 million barrels and a small increase of 969,000 barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma reached 25.113 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 1.071 million barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.4%, a small week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a small month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points, and a small year - on - year increase of 4.4 percentage points [13]. - As of February 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 124,565 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 27,583 contracts and a significant increase of 51,751 contracts compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts, with a growth rate of 71.07%. As of February 3, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 244,306 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 26,344 contracts and a significant increase of 59,860 contracts compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts, with a growth rate of 32.45% [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,250 yuan/ton | - 150 yuan/ton | 16,315 yuan/ton | - 135 yuan/ton | - 65 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,222 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | 2,188 yuan/ton | - 43 yuan/ton | + 34 yuan/ton | + 43 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 456.9 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 460.7 yuan/barrel | - 16.1 yuan/barrel | - 3.9 yuan/barrel | + 15.7 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber (including rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, etc.), methanol (including methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, etc.), and crude oil (including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, etc.) [16][29][44]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing trading volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The intraday price center dropped slightly to around 16,450 yuan/ton, and the price closed 0.51% lower at 16,450 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread narrowed to 95 yuan/ton. The rubber market has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, trading by both sides has become more cautious. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures will maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing trading volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price reached a maximum of 2,259 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,230 yuan/ton, and finally closed 0.45% lower at 2,231 yuan/ton. The discount of the May - September spread narrowed to 30 yuan/ton. Dominated by the weak supply - demand fundamentals, trading by both sides has become more cautious, and methanol futures may maintain a volatile consolidation trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of increasing trading volume, reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly closing higher. The price reached a maximum of 486.4 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 476.2 yuan/barrel, and finally closed 0.19% higher at 476.8 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have heated up again, the premium of crude oil has become prominent. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the external market during the Spring Festival holiday and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons or 2.55%. The bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%, and the general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouses decreased by 0.58 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.15 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.24 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points [9]. - As of February 5, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will further decline, with many all - steel tire enterprises gradually entering the Spring Festival holiday around February 10, and semi - steel tire enterprises mostly shutting down from February 13 to February 15 [9]. - In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. The production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, and the sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. Month - on - month, they decreased by 25.7% and 28.3% respectively. Specifically, the passenger car market declined. In January, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.062 million and 1.988 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% and 6.8% respectively, and a month - on - month decrease of 28.4% and 30.2% respectively. The commercial vehicle market continued to improve. In January, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 388,000 and 359,000 respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29.9% and 23.5% respectively, and a month - on - month decrease of 6.8% and 15.6% respectively [10]. - In January 2026, China's Logistics Prosperity Index (LPI) was 51.2%, a slight month - on - month decline of 1.2 percentage points, still in the expansion range above 50%. Driven by the recovery of logistics prosperity, in January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), basically the same as in December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year. It is expected that the wholesale sales of the heavy - truck industry will increase slightly year - on - year in the first quarter of this year [10]. Methanol - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 87.98%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.95%, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.60%, and a significant increase of 11.78% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0611 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 23,300 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 18,700 tons, and a significant increase of 140,100 tons compared with 1.921 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 28.69%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.29%. For dimethyl ether, the operating rate remained at 7.72%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 81.09%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2.28%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 58.15%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week of February 6, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 79%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.47 percentage points and a slight month - on - month decrease of 2.65%. As of February 6, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 55 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week recovery of 81 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month recovery of 401 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China remained at 961,400 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 32,400 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 197,900 tons, and a significant increase of 122,700 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of February 12, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 340,300 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 28,100 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 110,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 159,800 tons compared with 500,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a slight week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of February 6, 2026, the average daily US crude oil production was 13.713 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels per day and a slight year - on - year increase of 219,000 barrels per day, reaching a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 428.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 8.53 million barrels and a slight increase of 969,000 barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 25.113 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.071 million barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 100,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate remained at 89.4%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a slight month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year increase of 4.4 percentage points [13]. - As of February 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil futures were 124,565 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 27,583 contracts and a significant increase of 51,751 contracts or 71.07% compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts. On the other hand, as of February 3, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 244,306 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 26,344 contracts and a significant increase of 59,860 contracts or 32.45% compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,400 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 16,450 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | +125 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,230 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | 2,231 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | +17 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 456.4 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 476.8 yuan/barrel | +0.0 yuan/barrel | - 20.4 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, May - September spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][19][22][24][26]. - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, May - September spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][32][34][37][39]. - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [43][47][49][51][54].