1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The ongoing Iran-US conflict has led to a surge in global energy prices, triggering strong stagflation expectations in the market. The Fed's rate - cut rhythm has been significantly adjusted, and the precious metals sector is under pressure until the conflict is resolved. Stagflation expectations have also increased risks in the US stock and credit markets, leading to tighter liquidity. Silver is at a higher risk of a short - term decline due to its high commodity attribute and weak industrial demand [1][2]. - In the long - term, the core logic of global order reconstruction, weakening US dollar credit, and central banks' continuous gold purchases remains unchanged, so the long - term allocation value of precious metals still exists. However, in the short - term, attention should be paid to geopolitical conflict signals, market liquidity changes, and the Fed's policy stance [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Iran - US Conflict Triggers Global Stagflation Expectations - The duration of the Iran - US conflict has exceeded initial market expectations, spreading from short - term energy supply shocks to corporate profits, consumer confidence, and global inflation expectations, becoming the core trigger for stagflation expectations [3]. - The conflict has caused a substantial impact on the energy supply. As an important oil - producing country, Iran's conflict with the US and the transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz have led to concerns about oil supply, and production cuts by major oil - producing countries have further widened the supply gap, driving up international oil prices [3]. - Historical data shows that a 10% increase in oil prices will push up the US CPI by about 0.25% and the European CPI by about 0.3% within 3 - 12 months, while causing the US GDP to decline by 0.3% and the European GDP to decline by 0.4% cumulatively, resulting in a stagflation combination of "high inflation + low growth" [3]. - The US is experiencing sticky inflation, with the core PCE year - on - year rising to 3.06%, higher than the expected 2.9%, and the Q4 GDP being revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%. The conflict - driven energy price increase has further intensified stagflation expectations [4][6]. 3.2. Stagflation Expectations Lead to Adjustment of Fed's Rate - cut Rhythm - Due to stagflation expectations, the market has significantly revised the Fed's 2026 monetary policy path. Rate - cut expectations have cooled significantly, and high interest rates have become the consensus, which has put short - term pressure on the precious metals sector [7]. - As of March 18, 2026, the probability that the Fed will maintain the 350 - 375bp interest rate at the March meeting is 99.1%. The probability of rate cuts in June and July is decreasing, and the expected number of rate cuts for the year has shrunk from 3 to 1 or even none [7]. - The Fed is in a policy dilemma. Raising interest rates can control inflation but will suppress economic growth, while cutting rates can boost the economy but will lead to higher inflation. Therefore, the Fed has chosen to pause rate cuts and maintain high interest rates [11]. - The short - term pricing of gold and silver is mainly based on the real interest rate. Although rising inflation expectations suppress real interest rates to some extent, high nominal interest rates and the disappointment of rate - cut expectations have weakened the financial attribute support of precious metals. Coupled with the rising US dollar index, the precious metals sector is under pressure [12]. 3.3. Risks in US Stocks and Credit Markets Intensify Precious Metals Volatility - The combination of stagflation expectations and high Fed interest rates has increased the endogenous risks in the US financial market, especially in the US stock and private credit markets. The risk of tighter market liquidity has risen, which is a major factor suppressing the precious metals sector, and this impact is more significant on silver [13]. - Multiple risk factors, such as the escalation of the Iran - US conflict, the redemption wave in the US private credit market, and the high valuation of the AI sector, have increased the potential probability of a liquidity shock. If any risk materializes, institutions will sell assets [13][15]. - High interest rates have put pressure on the valuation of US stocks, and corporate profits have been revised down due to stagflation expectations, leading to increased market volatility. The US private credit market faces higher default risks due to high financing costs, and the redemption wave has further led to credit contraction, causing a risk resonance and tighter market liquidity [15]. - Gold is a global core safe - haven asset. Although it may be sold off at the beginning of a liquidity crunch, the safe - haven demand will drive up its price later. Silver has a higher proportion of commodity attributes, and its demand is closely related to global industrial economic growth. Under stagflation expectations, weak industrial demand and asset selling due to tighter liquidity will put double pressure on silver, making its short - term decline probability higher than that of gold [17]. - Since 2000, there have been three times when Brent crude oil reached $120, and each time it significantly suppressed precious metal prices. If the Iran - US conflict deepens and oil prices remain high, the precious metals sector may continue to be under pressure [17]. 3.4. Short - term Trend Judgment and Key Concerns of the Precious Metals Sector 3.4.1. Overall Trend Judgment - In the long - term, the long - term allocation value of precious metals remains unchanged due to global order reconstruction, weakening US dollar credit, central banks' continuous gold purchases, and rising long - term inflation expectations [20]. - In the short - term, gold is mainly under pressure with wide - range volatile fluctuations. The support levels are $5000/4800 per ounce. Its safe - haven attribute and long - term allocation value still exist, and if a liquidity shock occurs, the price will quickly recover [20][22]. - Silver is at a high risk of a short - term decline due to weak industrial demand and asset selling under tighter liquidity. The key support levels are $80/72 per ounce, and the probability of breaking through these levels will increase if market liquidity tightens further [22]. - The precious metals sector will remain under pressure until the Iran - US conflict is resolved, stagflation expectations are alleviated, and the Fed's rate - cut rhythm is revised. The fluctuation range will widen with geopolitical news and liquidity changes [22]. 3.4.2. Key Influencing Factors for Future Trends - Geopolitical dimension: The degree of deepening and settlement signals of the Iran - US conflict, the energy transportation safety in the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the conflict triggers a chain reaction in the geopolitical pattern of other regions [23]. - Inflation and policy dimension: The continuous trend of international energy prices (crude oil, natural gas), changes in US inflation data such as core PCE and CPI, and the Fed's policy stance at the interest - rate meeting, especially whether there are signals of rate - cut rhythm revision [23]. - Market liquidity dimension: The redemption situation in the US private credit market, the fluctuation range and capital flow of US stocks, and whether the Fed takes measures to release liquidity to prevent liquidity resonance caused by multiple risks [23]. - Volatility dimension: The volatility of precious metals is at a historical high. The gold ETF volatility index (GVZ) is 30.56, and the at - the - money implied volatility of Shanghai gold and silver futures is above the 75th percentile. High volatility will intensify price fluctuations, and short - term large - scale abnormal movements should be watched out for [23]. 3.5. Operation Suggestions - Conservative investors can consider selling call options with a strike price above 25,000 at high prices. Based on a 20% futures margin, the current annualized margin yield of the AG2605 - C - 25000 contract is about 180%, and that of the AG2605 - C - 30000 contract is about 62%. Investors can choose appropriate contracts according to their risk preferences [1][26]. - On the basis of the above method, investors can also consider buying a small number of put options to obtain additional income. Since the winning probability of option buyers is naturally low, it is recommended that the premium expenditure does not exceed the premium income of option sellers [1][26].

Group 1: Market Analysis - Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated that Iran won't give up revenge, will use strategies like blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and may open new fronts. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said some ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The US initial jobless claims last week dropped by 1,000 to 213,000, slightly below market expectations. The US trade deficit in January narrowed by 25% to $54.5 billion, and exports increased by 5.5% month-on-month [1] Group 2: Futures Quotes and Volumes - On March 12, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,148.00 yuan/gram, closed at 1,148.10 yuan/gram, a -0.34% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,137.50 yuan/gram, a -0.92% drop from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 21,771.00 yuan/kg, closed at 22,062.00 yuan/kg, a -0.87% change. The trading volume was 414,009 lots, and the open interest was 206,073 lots. The night session closed at 21,706 yuan/kg, a -1.61% drop [2] Group 3: US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 12, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.257%, a -0.59 BP change from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.525%, a +0.66 BP change [3] Group 4: Position and Volume Changes on SHFE - On March 12, 2026, on the Au2604 contract, long positions decreased by 3,407 lots, and short positions decreased by 62 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 250,176 lots, a -13.25% change. On the Ag2606 contract, long positions decreased by 1,679 lots, and short positions increased by 1,080 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 711,780 lots, a 0.39% change [4] Group 5: Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,077.28 tons, an increase of 3.71 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,539 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Group 6: Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On March 12, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 7.85 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 734.59 yuan/kg. The ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contract prices was about 52.04, a 0.54% change from the previous trading day. The foreign market's gold-silver ratio was 60.11, a 2.86% change [6] Group 7: Fundamental Analysis - On March 12, 2026, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d gold was 33,864 kg, a -16.07% change. The silver trading volume was 415,788 kg, a 112.69% change. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [7] Group 8: Strategy - Gold: Neutral. Market risk sentiment is rising, and the market may trade the liquidity crisis again. The price of gold is expected to be in a volatile pattern, with the Au2604 contract's range between 1,100 yuan/gram - 1,180 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Neutral. Silver shows a weakening price like gold. Due to the rising risk sentiment, the market may trade the liquidity crisis again. The price of silver is expected to be in a volatile pattern, with the Ag2606 contract's range between 20,800 yuan/kg - 22,000 yuan/kg [9] - Options: Postpone [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the Shanghai rubber (RU) 2605 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is "oscillation and weakening" [1][5] - For the synthetic rubber (BR) 2605 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation and strengthening", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is "oscillation and weakening" [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Core logic: After US President Trump signaled that the war against Iran might end soon, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East quickly cooled down, and international crude oil futures prices sharply corrected from high levels, weakening the bullish sentiment in energy - chemical commodities. Rising oil prices led to an increase in inflation expectations, and the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle might end early and be replaced by an interest - rate hike cycle, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. Additionally, a new rubber - tapping period is approaching. Although the Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a stable oscillation trend during the night session on Tuesday, with a slight increase in the futures price, the rebound momentum was lacking. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Core logic: After US President Trump signaled that the war against Iran might end soon, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East quickly cooled down, and international crude oil futures prices sharply corrected from high levels, weakening the bullish sentiment in energy - chemical commodities. Rising oil prices led to an increase in inflation expectations, and the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle might end early and be replaced by an interest - rate hike cycle, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. In the context of the collective weakening of energy - chemical commodities, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2605 contract showed an oscillating decline during the night session on Tuesday, with a slight decrease in the futures price. It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Wednesday [7]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 may maintain a weak and volatile trend on Tuesday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend - The short - term trend of crude oil 2604 is volatile and strong, the medium - term trend is volatile and strong, the intraday trend is volatile and weak, and the reference view is also volatile and weak [1]. Driving Logic - As US President Trump signaled the possible end of the war against Iran, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East declined rapidly, the crude oil premium significantly reversed, and international crude oil futures prices pulled back sharply from high levels, weakening the bullish sentiment in the energy and chemical commodities. With the rise of inflation expectations, the global central banks' interest - rate cut cycle may end early and an interest - rate hike cycle may begin, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. Against this backdrop, the domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract showed a high - level pullback during the night session on Monday, and the futures price converged its gains [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation on the weak side [1][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillation, while the intraday view is oscillation on the weak side. The reference view is weak operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: Due to the military conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East, geopolitical risks have risen rapidly. Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp increase in crude oil futures prices. Rising oil prices have led to an increase in inflation expectations, a possible end to the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle, and an expectation of tighter liquidity. Additionally, a new rubber - tapping period is approaching. These negative factors have caused the Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract to show a weakly oscillating trend on Thursday night, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Friday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillation, while the intraday view is oscillation on the weak side. The reference view is weak operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The military conflict in the Middle East has led to a continuous rise in crude oil prices. Rising oil prices have increased inflation expectations, a possible end to the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle, and an expectation of tighter liquidity. Against this background, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2605 contract showed limited upward momentum on Thursday night, and it is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Friday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weak [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term**: Oscillatory [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillatory [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillatory and weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has increased due to the US - Iran military conflict. Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The inflation expectation has rebounded, and the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle may end early, leading to a tightening of liquidity. Additionally, a new rubber - tapping period is approaching. Under these bearish factors, the Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term**: Oscillatory [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillatory [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillatory and weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The US - Iran military conflict in the Middle East has led to a rise in geopolitical risk and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, causing continuous strength in crude oil prices. The inflation expectation has rebounded, and the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle may end early, leading to a tightening of liquidity. Against this background, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2605 contract had limited upward momentum on Wednesday night and is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures contracts 2605 will maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday, March 4, 2026. The short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, while the intraday view is weak and volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak and volatile. The overall view is a weak operation [1]. - **Core Logic**: Due to the military conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East over the weekend, geopolitical risks have rapidly increased. Iran has announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp rise in crude oil futures prices. The rising oil prices have led to an increase in inflation expectations, potentially ending the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle and starting an interest - rate hike cycle, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. Additionally, a new rubber - tapping period is approaching. Under these bearish factors, the Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a downward trend in the night session on Tuesday, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak and volatile. The overall view is a weak operation [1]. - **Core Logic**: The military conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East over the weekend has led to an increase in geopolitical risks. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused crude oil futures prices to continue to strengthen. The rising oil prices have led to an increase in inflation expectations, potentially ending the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle and starting an interest - rate hike cycle, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. Against this background, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2605 contract showed limited upward momentum and narrowed its gains in the night session on Tuesday, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday [7].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures rebounded slightly in a volatile manner. Due to the weakening of the latest macro - economic indicators, the problem of insufficient effective demand emerged, and the pressure of "weak reality" increased, leading to an increase in the expectation of future interest rate cuts. Additionally, approaching the long holiday, liquidity tightened, and the demand for Treasury bond allocation increased due to rising risk - aversion needs, causing Treasury bond futures to be volatile and on the stronger side. However, in the short term, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut slowed down, and the central bank's monetary easing policy mainly focuses on structural interest rate cuts, so there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term, and the upside space for Treasury bond futures is limited. In general, Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Industry News and Related Charts - On February 9, the People's Bank of China conducted 113 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered manner, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. There were 75 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing in the open market today, resulting in a net injection of 38 billion yuan [5]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that the Fed lent a total of $25.95 billion to eligible financial institutions through the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) on Monday, marking the third-highest usage since the tool's introduction in 2021 [1] - Market volatility typically increases at the end of each quarter, prompting the Fed to take measures to stabilize liquidity [1] - Earlier this month, the Fed halted the reduction of its balance sheet and began purchasing short-term Treasury securities to manage market liquidity and ensure effective control over its interest rate target system [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that gold prices have recently experienced a significant drop after reaching a high of $2956 per ounce, influenced by various economic factors and geopolitical developments [2][4][5] - As of February 28, gold prices closed at $2858.58 per ounce, marking a decline of 0.68% for the month [2] - The article outlines five phases of gold price movements over the past decade, highlighting a peak of $2089 per ounce in August 2020 and a subsequent increase of 84% since November 2022 [2] Group 2 - Factors contributing to the recent adjustment in gold prices include easing geopolitical risks, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, profit-taking by investors, and a reduction in short-term premiums [5] - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will continue to rise, forecasting a price of $3100 per ounce by the end of 2025, up from a previous estimate of $2890 [7] - The increase in demand for gold from central banks, particularly since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is a significant driver of the anticipated price rise [7]