证券研究报告 固收专题报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 16 日 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com ——银行理财资产配置专题分析 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 固收+理财现状、竞争格局与配置策略 固收+理财的核心特征与市场定位。固收+理财以固定收益资产为底层配置，通过叠 加权益资产或策略增厚收益，形成"安全垫+弹性收益"的平衡结构。其本质是通过 股债黄金等相关性低的资产分散风险，在低利率环境下突破纯固收收益率瓶颈，满 足投资者对稳健收益与适度弹性的双重需求。本文讨论的固收+理财指含权资产（含 权基金、股票等）配置比例小于 30%的含权银行理财产品。 固收+理财市场驱动因素。资管新规打破刚兑后，固收+或能成为承接万亿级存量资 金的主力工具，同时养老金融需求持续增加，理财公司积极布局个人养老金产品。 存款利率明显下调与债券收益率下行或使资金转向固收+产品。 1. 市场现状：混合类理财和权益类理财规模持续下降，25Q3 含权理财和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent shifts in ETF fund flows, highlighting a net outflow from popular sectors like artificial intelligence and healthcare, while stable sectors such as dividend low volatility and free cash flow have attracted investment [1][3]. Fund Flow Analysis - Recent fund flows indicate a significant net inflow into broad-based ETFs like CSI 300 and CSI A500, with net inflows exceeding 1.2 billion and 30 billion respectively as of December 22 [3]. - Stable ETFs focusing on dividend low volatility and free cash flow have also seen net inflows, with the dividend low volatility category attracting over 1.5 billion [3]. - Conversely, popular sectors such as healthcare and innovative pharmaceuticals have experienced net outflows, with multiple AI-themed ETFs recording over 1 billion in net outflows since December [3][4]. Market Style Shift - The discussion around a potential style switch in the A-share market has gained traction, with a focus on the "high to low" transition in investment styles [4]. - Short-term style shifts may not be sustainable, with a continued emphasis on large-cap growth styles into early next year, while longer-term shifts may occur around the first quarter of next year [4]. - The 2026 market outlook suggests that valuation recovery may outpace earnings recovery, similar to the 2019-2020 market phase [4]. Investment Strategy Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of cash flow and stable growth in investment strategies, with a focus on high-quality assets that can withstand market fluctuations [7]. - The 2026 investment landscape is expected to see a shift from technology towards stable cash flow sectors, with core assets likely to attract significant investment [7]. - New fund launches indicate a preference for both technology and stable value-oriented products, reflecting a diverse investment strategy [8]. Future Opportunities - The article highlights two key investment opportunities: cyclical industries benefiting from supply constraints and high-end manufacturing firms expanding in global markets [9]. - The ongoing competition in AI investment is noted, with a focus on the foundational infrastructure needed for growth, suggesting a mix of opportunities and challenges ahead [6].

时光荏苒，2025年已步入尾声。回望这一年的投资历程，市场参与者经历了权益市场起伏带来的忐忑，也感受到低利率环境下资产增值需求选择的迷茫。 在市场的波动中，投资者们共同见证了公募基金行业为优化持有人体验的深化改革。 2025年，于公募基金行业而言是"回归初心"的一年，于每一位投资者而言是需求和感受被加倍重视的一年。今年，证监会印发《推动公募基金高质量发展 行动方案》，明确行业改革方向。5月，首批与投资者利益紧密绑定的新型浮动费率基金问世，打破过往管理人"旱涝保收"的旧模式，展现出与持有人并 肩同行的诚意。费率改革持续推进，管理人实实在在的让利，让投资成本肉眼可见地降低，收益"落袋"比例稳步提高。业绩比较基准也在不断完善，给基 金贴上"说明书"与"合格线"，让投资者能够更直观清晰地看到产品的投资方向与表现优劣，减少"货不对板"的风格飘移问题。从产品供给的持续丰富，到 从"规模导向"向"投资者回报导向"的转变，公募基金行业的每一次变革，都在回应投资者长期以来的期待，本着"以投资者为本"的初心，切实改善了持有 人的投资体验。 截至11月底，公募基金年内新发产品数量超1370只，规模逾1万亿元，同比增长近35%，其中 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the wealth management industry, projecting an 8% growth in 2026, with potential expansion to 36 trillion yuan, and possibly up to 37.4 trillion yuan if market conditions improve [12][14]. Core Insights - The wealth management industry is expected to benefit from the trend of deposit migration and the release of existing floating profits, leading to unexpected growth in 2025 [3][14]. - In 2026, wealth management institutions will have opportunities for multi-asset allocation and a further decline in household savings rates, but they will also face pressure from valuation adjustments [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the changes in residents' risk preferences and the implications for asset allocation, indicating a shift towards more liquid deposits and asset management products [23][39]. Summary by Sections Resident Risk Preferences - The report suggests that in 2026, residents will have a slight increase in risk appetite, leading to a trend of liquid deposits and asset management products [4][23]. - The potential for increased allocation to rights products is noted, although the growth elasticity may not be significant at this stage [4][23]. Deposit Migration Trends - In 2025, the average decline in retail deposit rates was approximately 30 basis points, with a notable slowdown in the growth of fixed-term deposits [4][44]. - The report anticipates that in 2026, 32 trillion yuan of fixed-term deposits will mature, with a re-pricing range of 70-170 basis points, creating conditions for further deposit migration [4][45]. Fund Flow from Excess Savings - The report estimates that from 2020 to 2025, there will be a total of 14.4 trillion yuan in excess savings, with a potential additional 2-4 trillion yuan flowing into non-fixed deposit investment areas in 2026 [5][46]. - A decrease in the savings rate by 1 percentage point could lead to an additional 0.9 trillion yuan in new funds directed towards wealth management, funds, insurance, and real estate [5][46]. Wealth Management Asset Allocation Outlook - The report predicts that pure fixed-income wealth management products will grow by 7.5% to 24.9 trillion yuan in 2026, contributing significantly to the overall growth of the industry [13][14]. - The demand for public fund outsourcing, particularly for bond ETFs and rights funds, is expected to grow rapidly, driven by the need for enhanced returns [13][14]. Valuation Adjustment and Market Conditions - The report highlights that wealth management products will face "true" net value adjustment pressures starting in 2026, which may lead to increased product volatility [11][54]. - The need for wealth management institutions to effectively meet investor demands for stable value growth while managing expectations is emphasized as a key challenge [11][54].