2026 年 A 股资金面展望 - "策略周中谈"20260128 Q&A 2026 年 A 股市场的资金面展望如何？ 我们预计 2026 年 A 股市场的增量资金将非常可观，净流入可能达到约 1.5 万 亿元。其中，一季度将是全年资金最充裕的时点，结构上较为均衡，中长期资 金占比约为三分之一，公司募资也会有明显边际改善，两融资金仍然是重要的 增量资金流入渠道，但相比 2025 年有所下降。 两融和私募基金构成高风险资金，两融资金流入预计放缓，私募基金规 模预计增长至 8.5 万亿，增量资金约 7,000 亿，两融预计净流入 4,500 亿，总体高风险资金仍保持活跃。 外资有望进入北向 4.0 时代，战略性增配中国资产，核心逻辑是弱美元 周期和人民币强势，参考北向 2.0 时代，中国优势产业将进一步吸引外 资，实现北向资金净流入。 预计 2026 年全年增量资金净流入为 11.5 万亿元，为历史最佳水平之一， 其中以险资理财为代表的中长期资金约 9,000 亿元，是微观流动性的基 石，公募和私募基金是边际改善方向，影响市场风格，强调科技和资源 品双主线。 保险业在 2026 年的增量资金贡献如何？ 保险业预计 ...

主动股混基金规模点评： 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，全市场主动股混基金剔除 FOF 产品后的规模合计约 4.40 万亿元，相较上一季度末减少约 1562.97 亿元。新发基金方面，自 2025 年以来，伴随 A 股市场走出牛市行情且科技主线逐渐清晰，主动权益基金的超额收益开始凸显叠加投资者风险偏好提升，主 动权益新发市场持续走强。持营基金方面，目前投资者对于主动股混基金的投资情绪仍处于低位，高仓位产品中，投资目标更为明晰的主题型产品更加受到投 资者青睐，部分热门科技主题型产品获得规模大幅增长。 主动债券基金规模点评： 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，主动债券型基金剔除 FOF 产品后的规模达到 9.31 万亿元，相较上一季度末增加约 1588.03 亿元。 新发基金中， 2025 年四季度，募集规模前五的主动债基均为偏债产品，募集规模最大的 5 只均不超过 50 亿元。持营基金方面， 2025 年以来在权益牛市 行情的加持下，固收加产品的市场认可度得到显著提升，四季度，持营主动固收基金的规模增长依然主要来自于固收加产品。 FOF 规模点评： 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，剔除 F ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, after excluding ETF-linked funds and duplicate holdings of internal funds, the scale of equity, bond, commodity, domestic other, QDII equity-mixed, QDII bond, QDII other, and FOF funds increased compared to the previous quarter, while the scale of hybrid and MOM funds decreased [1][6]. - As of December 31, 2025, the total public fund management scale (excluding money market funds) was approximately 22.66 trillion yuan, an increase of about 0.65 trillion yuan compared to September 30, 2025. After excluding the scale of ETF-linked funds invested in ETFs and holdings of internal funds, the total public fund scale (excluding money market funds) was about 21.68 trillion yuan, an increase of about 0.54 trillion yuan compared to September 30, 2025 [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Index Funds - As of the end of Q4 2025, excluding commodity and domestic other types of funds and the part of ETF-linked funds invested in ETFs, the total passive management product volume of fund companies was about 7.16 trillion yuan. Among them, the passive management scale of equity (including QDII) was about 5.48 trillion yuan, an increase of about 131.116 billion yuan compared to the end of Q1; the passive management scale of fixed income was about 1.68 trillion yuan, an increase of about 231.211 billion yuan compared to the end of Q1 [4][6]. - **Equity**: In Q4, 183 index equity funds were established in the public fund market, with a total issuance scale of about 81.679 billion yuan and an average issuance scale of about 446 million yuan, showing a significant decline in both the number and scale of new issuances compared to Q3 2025. In the top ten new products in terms of fundraising scale in Q4, 4 were broad-based funds, 3 were thematic index funds, and 3 were strategic index funds. In the Q4, ETF products tracking the CSI A500 index were favored by investors, and the scale of thematic ETF products tracking popular themes also increased rapidly [7]. - **Fixed Income**: In Q4 2025, 4 index bond funds were issued, with a total fundraising scale of 12.549 billion yuan, a significant decline compared to the previous quarter. In Q4, the scale of ongoing index bond funds increased against the trend, with over 57% of funds achieving positive growth. Some科创 bond ETF products and medium - and short - term policy financial bond products saw significant scale expansion [8]. Active Equity - Mixed Funds - As of December 31, 2025, the total scale of active equity - mixed funds in the market after excluding FOF products was about 4.40 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 156.297 billion yuan compared to the end of the previous quarter [4][9]. - **Newly Issued Funds**: In Q4 2025, 106 active equity funds were established, with a total fundraising scale of about 60.218 billion yuan, accounting for 42.44% of equity funds. Since 2025, the active equity new - issuance market has continued to strengthen [9]. - **Ongoing Funds**: Currently, investors' investment sentiment towards active equity - mixed funds remains low. In Q4, only about 25% of active equity - mixed funds achieved scale expansion. Among high - position products, thematic products with clearer investment goals were more popular, and some stable - performing dividend - value style products or cycle - themed products also saw significant scale growth [9][10]. Active Bond Funds - As of December 31, 2025, the scale of active bond funds after excluding FOF products reached 9.31 trillion yuan, an increase of about 158.803 billion yuan compared to the end of the previous quarter [4][11]. - **Newly Issued Funds**: In Q4 2025, 57 new products were issued, with a total fundraising scale of about 62.486 billion yuan. The top five active bond funds in terms of fundraising scale were all partial - bond products, and the fundraising scale of the top 5 did not exceed 5 billion yuan [11]. - **Ongoing Funds**: Since 2025, with the bull market in the equity market, the market recognition of fixed - income plus products has been significantly improved. In Q4, the scale growth of ongoing active fixed - income funds still mainly came from fixed - income plus products [11]. FOF - As of December 31, 2025, after excluding the duplicate part of FOF's holdings of internal funds, the scale of FOF in Q4 2025 was about 17.2836 billion yuan, continuing the growth trend compared to the previous quarter, but the scale growth still mainly came from newly issued products [4][12]. - **Newly Issued Funds**: In Q4 2025, 42 FOFs were established, an increase of 25 compared to Q3. The total fundraising scale was about 45.246 billion yuan, a significant increase of about 38.714 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter. The average fundraising scale in Q4 was about 1.077 billion yuan, an increase of 693 million yuan compared to the previous quarter [12]. - **Ongoing Funds**: High - performing medium - and low - position FOF products were still more popular among investors. The low - position ordinary FOF product Guotai Ruiyue 3 - month Holding under Guotai had the largest scale growth in Q4, with a growth of 2.619 billion yuan [12]. Other Products - As of December 31, 2025, after excluding the scale of ETF - linked funds invested in ETFs and holdings of internal funds, the total scale of other types of products in Q4 2025 was about 66.9156 billion yuan, an increase of about 12.5121 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter [4][13]. - Gold - themed ETF products and ETF - linked funds continued to rise significantly in Q4 due to the continuous increase in international gold prices. Silver - themed products also saw a significant increase in scale in Q4. In addition, inter - bank certificate of deposit products continued to attract investors' attention, with a total scale growth of 2.6553 billion yuan in Q4 [13].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the Chinese financial market, particularly focusing on the brokerage and insurance sectors, highlighting a transition towards a "transformation bull" market in 2024 and beyond, driven by reforms and economic shifts [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Macroeconomic Stability**: The easing of macroeconomic risks is a prerequisite for the revaluation of the Chinese market, supported by the government's effective response to the 924 policy and the US-China tensions, which has bolstered market confidence [1][2]. - **Asset Management Demand**: The disappearance of guaranteed returns has led to a surge in asset management demand, with expectations for even greater demand in 2026 [3][5]. - **Market Growth Projections**: Corporate profit growth is projected to reach 10.6% in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to break through the 4,200 to 4,300 points resistance level before the Spring Festival [4][5]. - **Capital Inflows**: Approximately 50 trillion yuan in bank deposits are set to mature in the first quarter, with insurance dividends and brokerage fund sales expected to bring in additional capital, potentially exceeding expectations [5]. - **Investment Focus**: Key investment themes include emerging technologies, cyclical consumption aligned with transformation needs, and the financial sector, particularly non-bank financial institutions, which are expected to thrive under low-risk yield conditions [6][7]. Additional Important Content - **Non-Bank Financial Institutions**: These institutions are expected to enhance investment yields by increasing equity allocations in a low-interest environment, which is not mandated by policy but is a strategic response to achieve profit targets [7]. - **Wealth Management Trends**: The approach to wealth management is shifting from vertical platforms to public domain traffic monetization, with a notable increase in brokerage firms that effectively collaborate with public traffic platforms [9]. - **Insurance Sector Opportunities**: The stabilization of interest rates is anticipated to reduce the pressure from interest rate differentials on insurance companies, improving profitability and leading to valuation recovery. The growth in new policies has been significant, with some channels exceeding 50% growth [10][11]. - **Digital Currency Prospects**: The development of digital RMB is expected to gain momentum, particularly with the potential for interest-bearing capabilities, which would enhance its adoption by banks and third-party payment companies [12]. - **Non-Bank Sector Performance**: The non-bank financial sector is projected to perform well in the upcoming spring market, with optimism regarding its growth potential compared to other sectors [13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the Chinese financial market, emphasizing the evolving landscape and potential investment opportunities within the brokerage and insurance sectors.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Real Estate Market**: The Chinese real estate market is expected to bottom out by 2026, with rental yields likely to exceed public housing loan rates, stimulating home buying demand. If commercial mortgage loans receive interest subsidies, it will accelerate the market's recovery, which is crucial for macroeconomic recovery [1][4][26]. - **Service Industry**: The service sector's contribution to GDP is currently at 56.7%, with significant room for growth compared to developed countries. Increasing holidays and creating more cultural and tourism activities can drive the development of tourism, accommodation, and dining sectors, enhancing overall consumption levels [3][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Macroeconomic Outlook for 2026**: The macroeconomic situation will be influenced by the adjustment of the real estate market, policy direction, and expansion of domestic demand. The average growth rate over the next decade needs to exceed 4.2%, with a likely range of 4.5% to 5% for the next five years [2][5]. - **"14th Five-Year Plan"**: This plan emphasizes technology serving industrial development and the importance of self-controlled technology. It aims to enhance the quality of traditional industries and stabilize the manufacturing sector, which is essential for solidifying the foundation of the real economy [5][6]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The A-share market's upward momentum in 2026 will shift from being solely valuation-driven to a dual drive of earnings and valuation. Focus areas include semiconductors, military industry, chemicals, consumer services, and the real estate industry chain [2][19][24]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to remain proactive, with the central government possibly increasing leverage through a higher deficit rate or issuing long-term special bonds to stimulate economic growth [11][12]. - **Global Liquidity**: The Federal Reserve is anticipated to continue lowering interest rates and may restart quantitative easing, leading to a more accommodative global liquidity environment, positively impacting global markets, including A-shares [14][15]. - **Consumer Spending**: The current consumer spending rate in China is 39.9%, which has significant room for improvement compared to Japan and the U.S. Measures to increase residents' income and consumption willingness are crucial for boosting domestic demand [3][7]. Real Estate Market Insights - **Market Adjustment**: The adjustment phase of the real estate market is expected to conclude by 2026, with rental yields currently at 2.4% and commercial mortgage rates between 3% and 3.05%. A slight adjustment in housing prices could lead to rental yields surpassing public housing loan rates, stimulating demand [2][4][26]. Investment Strategies for 2026 - **Focus on Domestic Demand**: Investment strategies should concentrate on sectors benefiting from domestic demand, particularly in semiconductors, military, chemicals, and consumer services. The real estate sector is also expected to present opportunities as it stabilizes [24][25]. - **Fixed Income Products**: Fixed income products are becoming essential tools for medium to low-risk investments, especially in a low-interest-rate environment. Convertible bonds, which offer both stock options and debt protection, are particularly noteworthy [27][28][36]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment for the A-share market in 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of a shift towards a dual drive of earnings and valuation. The focus on domestic demand and the potential recovery of the real estate market present significant investment opportunities [19][24].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the bond market dynamics and the challenges faced by the financial sector, particularly in relation to the supply and demand of bonds as the year-end approaches [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Conditions**: The bond market is experiencing significant volatility as it approaches year-end, with a notable lack of the traditional December rally seen in previous years. The relationship between interest rates and equities has weakened [2][3]. 2. **Supply and Demand Issues**: There is a growing concern regarding the supply-demand imbalance in the bond market. Factors contributing to this include insufficient insurance company support and banks' inability to absorb long-term bonds [2][3][4]. 3. **Insurance Sector Dynamics**: The insurance sector is undergoing structural changes, with a shift towards dividend insurance products, which now account for 40% of new insurance policies. This trend is expected to rise to 50% next year, impacting the demand for long-term bonds [3][4]. 4. **Banking Sector Concerns**: Banks are reassessing their balance sheets as year-end approaches, leading to potential instability in asset-liability management. The pressure to meet year-end reporting standards is influencing their bond purchasing behavior [4][5]. 5. **Long-term Bond Issuance**: The issuance of long-term bonds has been increasing rapidly, but the growth in premium income from insurance has not kept pace, leading to a mismatch in the market [6][10]. 6. **Market Sentiment**: There is a prevailing sentiment of caution among investors, with many adopting a defensive posture in light of the current market conditions. The expectation of a weak bond market is influencing investment strategies [11][12]. 7. **Liquidity Concerns**: The relationship between liquidity and asset stability is highlighted, with a need for stable liquidity injections to restore balance in the market. The current liquidity situation is described as unstable, affecting trading dynamics [12][15]. 8. **Interest Rate Dynamics**: The yield spread between different bond maturities is under scrutiny, with the current 30-10 year spread reaching 40 basis points, reflecting a return to levels seen in 2022. There is speculation about potential adjustments in the yield curve [12][14]. 9. **Future Outlook**: The market is expected to face continued challenges, with concerns about the sustainability of the current yield levels and the potential for further adjustments in bond issuance strategies [15][16]. Other Important Insights - The discussion emphasizes the need for a flexible approach to investment strategies, particularly in light of the current market volatility and the shifting dynamics between equities and bonds [11][12]. - The impact of external factors, such as global interest rate trends and inflation, is acknowledged as a potential influence on future bond market performance [14][15]. - The importance of understanding the underlying frameworks that govern bond market behavior is stressed, particularly in the context of changing investor sentiment and market expectations [11][12].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the bond market and the behavior of various financial institutions in 2025 and projections for 2026, focusing on the fixed income sector and insurance industry [1][2][3][5][6]. Key Points Bond Market Dynamics - In 2025, the total new bond investment reached 7 trillion, double the highest value in previous years, but did not significantly impact secondary market interest rates due to large banks primarily purchasing short-term government bonds to balance duration [1][3]. - Agricultural commercial banks faced regulatory constraints and a shift back to core lending activities, resulting in historically low growth rates in financial investments [1][3]. - Insurance companies showed a preference for equity assets over bonds, with new equity investments exceeding 900 billion, while bond investments were less than 300 billion. They maintained some allocation to long-term local government bonds but were reluctant to invest in government bonds, quickly selling off long-term bonds during interest rate declines [1][3][6]. - Fund leverage remained stable, but duration levels fluctuated significantly, with a cautious approach in the latter half of the year leading to substantial sell-offs of long-term bonds [1][4]. Projections for 2026 - The market is expected to see an increase in the proportion of rights products, with fixed income plus products likely to expand. Non-policy financial bonds may attract capital inflows, while policy-driven financial products may weaken [1][5]. - The insurance industry is projected to weaken further in 2026, with high dividend stocks becoming more attractive as they help mitigate duration mismatch issues. The demand for long-term government bonds is expected to decrease as the supply has already filled the duration gap [6][7]. - Regulatory changes are anticipated to impact operational strategies and asset allocation across various institutions, necessitating enhanced active management capabilities [5][10]. Risks and Market Changes - The bond market is expected to experience low volatility in the coming year, with net financing speeds for long-term government bonds remaining high. The large holdings by institutions could lead to significant impacts on the financial system if interest rates fluctuate [2][8][9]. - The central bank is expected to implement more precise controls to prevent systemic risks, with large banks playing a stabilizing role in the market [2][9]. Regulatory Impacts - Upcoming regulations, including fund fee reforms and new accounting standards for insurance companies, are expected to influence market behavior. Institutions may shift towards ETFs or similar products for liquidity management and focus more on long-term active management [10][11]. - The overall impact of new accounting standards on the insurance sector is expected to be limited, as many companies have already adapted to these changes [11]. Additional Important Insights - The insurance sector's capacity for equity asset allocation remains significant, with potential for an additional 3.7 trillion in equity investments, indicating a strong policy signal rather than strict constraints [7]. - The anticipated stability in traditional life insurance premium income is expected to persist, with no strong demand for bond purchases due to the lack of attractive investment opportunities [6][11].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The technology sector is experiencing high volatility and adjustment due to overseas market influences and year-end profit-taking pressures, with signs of fatigue in AI narratives [1][4] - The bond market is facing significant challenges, with a notable decrease in trading volume following the end of central bank bond purchases, leading to a substantial drop in daily transaction numbers for long-term and ultra-long-term bonds [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - **Market Sentiment**: The recent performance of the Chinese capital market has been subdued, with a lack of incremental capital support and limited fundamental logic to support price increases, leading to increased trading difficulties as year-end approaches [1][6] - **Sector Performance**: The stock market has shown stronger performance compared to the bond market since October, driven by profit-taking from pension and insurance funds, which has led to a style switch in the market [3][4] - **Earnings Reports**: Despite Nvidia's earnings exceeding expectations, the market's reaction was tepid, indicating underlying concerns about high valuations in the AI sector [4] - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: The Federal Reserve's hawkish shift has dampened expectations for interest rate cuts in December, contributing to negative market sentiment [1][4] - **Bond Market Dynamics**: After the cessation of central bank bond purchases, the bond market has seen a significant reduction in trading activity, with average daily transactions for long and ultra-long bonds dropping from over 5,500 in September and October to around 4,000 in November [5] Future Outlook - **Equity Market Reversal**: There is an expectation for a potential reversal in the equity market in December, as profit-taking behaviors from pension and insurance funds are anticipated to diminish, which could lead to a pricing adjustment for the upcoming spring market [6] - **Risk Management**: The current market environment is characterized by a limited capacity for strategy diversification, with a convergence of strategies in fixed income and equity, raising concerns about potential risks associated with a "fixed income reduction" scenario [7][8] Additional Important Insights - The bond market's recent performance has been affected by a narrowing of spreads and a lack of impactful monetary policy expectations following the end of certain trading activities [2][3] - The overall risk appetite remains constrained, and market participants should be cautious about the potential for similar adverse conditions as seen in previous periods [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a systematic approach to achieve stable returns in a low-interest, high-volatility market environment, highlighting the need for diversified income sources and rigorous risk control [1][17]. Group 1: Investment Environment - Investors are experiencing unprecedented anxiety due to high risks in the stock market and unsatisfactory returns from financial products [1]. - The market demand has shifted, creating a new investment challenge: how to design financial products that capture excess returns while strictly controlling drawdowns [1]. Group 2: Performance of Investment Products - The article presents the performance of several products managed by Wu Jianghong's team, showcasing their ability to maintain low volatility and strong performance over time [2]. - Specific products mentioned include: - 汇添富保鑫: 近半年业绩 1.41%, 近一年业绩 3.51% [2] - 汇添富鑫享添利: 近半年业绩 2.80%, 近一年业绩 6.07% [2] - 汇添富双鑫添利: 近半年业绩 2.27%, 近一年业绩 5.65% [2] - 汇添富稳健盈和: 近半年业绩 2.57%, 近一年业绩 6.00% [2] - 汇添富实业债: 近半年业绩 4.45%, 近一年业绩 10.13% [2] Group 3: Investment Methodology - The team employs a specialized division of labor, allowing each member to focus on their area of expertise, which enhances the overall investment strategy [5][6]. - The investment approach includes pursuing a broader spectrum of alpha by diversifying income sources across various asset classes, including bonds and stocks [7]. - The team emphasizes strict control of drawdowns and risk exposure, aiming for consistent positive returns regardless of market complexity [8][9]. Group 4: Focus on Convertible Bonds - Wu Jianghong's expertise lies in convertible bonds, which are viewed as low-error-cost equity assets that provide both debt protection and equity-like flexibility [11]. - The team identifies three types of convertible bond opportunities: - Bonds with asymmetric risk-reward profiles [12]. - Undervalued bonds from high-quality companies [13]. - Bonds from cyclical growth industries [13]. Group 5: Expansion of Investment Capabilities - Wu Jianghong has expanded his investment capabilities beyond convertible bonds to include equity investments, focusing on undervalued assets across various sectors [15]. - The investment strategy emphasizes diversification not only by industry but also by factors, ensuring a balanced exposure to different market conditions [15]. Group 6: Systematic Approach to Stability - The article concludes that true "stable returns" stem from a comprehensive system that includes diversified income sources, a rigorous risk control framework, and deep asset knowledge [17].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the public fund industry in China, specifically analyzing the performance and trends of various fund types in the second quarter of 2025. Core Insights and Arguments Public Fund Performance - In Q2 2025, the number and scale of newly launched active equity funds significantly increased, with an average fundraising scale of 520 million yuan, focusing on dividend value and technology growth [1][2] - Despite a market rebound, the overall share of active equity funds decreased by 2.2% due to redemptions of older products, maintaining a scale of 3.33 trillion yuan [1][2] - Fixed income plus products surpassed the levels of the second half of 2023, reaching 2.16 trillion yuan, with a notable expansion in mixed bond FOFs [1][2] Fund Categories - Active equity funds showed strong performance, with a 3.1% increase in the equity fund index, outperforming broad-based indices [1][5] - The new issuance of FOF products continued at a high level, with a total new scale of 18.6 billion yuan, leading to a 10% increase in the overall market scale of FOFs to 166.2 billion yuan [1][4] Investment Trends - Active equity funds increased their stock positions slightly, with a notable rise in holdings of Hong Kong stocks, which now account for 17% of their portfolios [3][26] - The communication and financial sectors received increased allocations, while consumer and manufacturing sectors saw reductions [27] Performance Metrics - The median returns for active equity funds in Q2 were strong, with ordinary stock, mixed equity, and flexible allocation products achieving median returns of 2.0%, 2.1%, and 1.8% respectively, all outperforming major indices [19][20] - Fixed income plus funds achieved positive returns across all subcategories, with convertible bond funds leading in performance [22][23] Additional Important Insights - The competitive landscape for FOF products shows a slight decrease in the market share of the top ten managers, which now account for 60.8% of the market [4][8] - The concentration of holdings in active equity funds has decreased, indicating a more diversified investment approach, with the CR10 and CR20 ratios at 17.5% and 25.8% respectively [28] - Notable stock holdings include Ningde Times, which remains the most favored stock among funds, despite a slight reduction in holdings [29] Market Dynamics - The passive index product market reached a total scale of 5.79 trillion yuan by the end of Q2, with a 12.6% quarter-on-quarter growth [11] - The issuance of passive stock products hit a historical high, with 109 new products launched in Q2 2025 [9][10] Sector-Specific Performance - The innovative pharmaceutical sector led the market in Q2, with corresponding theme funds achieving a median return of 10.1% [21] - The report highlights the strong performance of small-cap growth and value products, with median returns of 3.4% and 3.2% respectively [20] This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call regarding the public fund industry, highlighting performance metrics, investment trends, and sector-specific dynamics.