ab 19 January 2026 Global Research Global Economics & Strategy Core Convictions (Multi-Asset Rundown) All our views on markets in a single page This 'core conviction' document is our weekly one-page multi-asset rundown where we highlight key events in the week ahead and any view changes (see page 2). Highlights this week President Trump's decision to impose an increasing tariff (10% on Feb 1, rising to 25% on June 1) on 8 European countries who sent military personnel to Greenland last week at Denmark's inv ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decrease in the net loss rate of wealth management products in December, dropping to 0.51% overall, with equity products experiencing the largest decline from 23.81% in November to 12.35% in December [5][3][6]. Group 1: Product Performance - In December, the net loss rate for equity products fell to 12.35%, while mixed and fixed-income products decreased to 2.21% and 0.41%, respectively [5][6]. - By the end of December, 145 out of 28,363 public wealth management products had a cumulative net value below 1, resulting in a net loss ratio of 0.51% [3][6]. - The highest net loss rates were observed in fixed-income products with a 1-2 year term at 0.85%, while mixed products with a term of less than one month had a net loss rate of 4.27% [6][5]. Group 2: New Product Issuance - In December, 32 wealth management companies launched a total of 2,474 new products, marking a 17.42% increase from 2,107 in November [7][10]. - Publicly offered products accounted for 93.9% of new issuances, with fixed-income products making up 96.5% of the new offerings [10][11]. - Notable new products included 18 index-type products launched by Huaxia Wealth Management and a public product linked to the CSI Technology Index by Minsheng Wealth Management [11][12]. Group 3: Expiry and Performance Metrics - A total of 1,160 closed-end RMB wealth management products expired in December, with a performance benchmark lower limit achievement rate of 69.97% and a central benchmark achievement rate of 34.13% [19][24]. - The average annualized yield for fixed-income closed-end RMB public products was 2.31%, while mixed products yielded 2.24% [27][33]. - The highest average annualized yield for fixed-income products was recorded at 2.64% for those with a 1-2 year term [27][25]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The report indicates a shift towards equity investments in wealth management, driven by policy encouragement and a scarcity of assets, with index and thematic investments becoming mainstream [12][11]. - The average net value growth rate for public equity products reached 22.71%, while mixed products saw a growth rate of 4.54% [33][36]. - Fixed-income products continued to show the lowest returns, with an average net value growth rate of 2.24% [33][38].

宏观逻辑千丝万缕，投资变量错综复杂，在跌宕起伏的市场中，单一资产、单一风格所承载的风险愈发凸显。当不确定性成为市场常态，多元资产的有机配置 或将成为穿越波涛的"方舟"。 作为国内最早布局多资产业务的公募机构之一，易方达基金历经近20年，逐步构建起覆盖多资产、多策略的投研体系。从"固收+"到多资产多策略的迭代，从独立板 块设立到跨板块协同，其探索轨迹不仅是一家机构在多元资产领域的进化史，也是中国资管行业日渐成熟的缩影。 随着产品线不断拓展，易方达多资产投资管理逐渐走向精细化。2018年，公司在固收投资板块下分设混合资产投资团队，专注多资产产品的投资管理。 "混合资产投资团队成立时，国内二级债基市场还很小，但公司前瞻性地看到了这块业务的潜力。"易方达多资产公募投资部总经理助理杨康说道。回头来看，当时 海外成熟市场多资产业务蓬勃发展，预示了这一方向的巨大空间。 随着市场有效性提升，Alpha获取难度加大，越来越多投资者不再盲目追求极致收益，而是更注重通过多元化的收益来源应对波动、穿越周期。易方达基金正依托体 系化投研、协同化平台、多元化风格，致力于在不确定性中构筑确定性。 近20年迭代：从固收增强到多资产多策略 2 ...

宏观逻辑千丝万缕，投资变量错综复杂，在跌宕起伏的市场中，单一资产、单一风格所承载的风险愈发凸显。当不确定性成为市场常态，多元资产的有机 配置或将成为穿越波涛的"方舟"。 作为国内最早布局多资产业务的公募机构之一，易方达基金历经近20年，逐步构建起覆盖多资产、多策略的投研体系。从"固收+"到多资产多策略的迭 代，从独立板块设立到跨板块协同，其探索轨迹不仅是一家机构在多元资产领域的进化史，也是中国资管行业日渐成熟的缩影。 随着市场有效性提升，Alpha获取难度加大，越来越多投资者不再盲目追求极致收益，而是更注重通过多元化的收益来源应对波动、穿越周期。易方达基 金正依托体系化投研、协同化平台、多元化风格，致力于在不确定性中构筑确定性。 近20年迭代：从固收增强到多资产多策略 "鸡蛋不要放在同一个篮子里"，这句朴素的谚语，道出了多元资产配置的基本逻辑。它不是简单的数学题，"多元"不意味着资产数量越多越好，"配置"需 要进行真正有效的组合。简言之，必须具备体系化组合不同资产的能力，才算真正迈进多资产投资的大门。 易方达基金的多资产投资可追溯至2006年，开始进行相关产品管理；2008年，易方达月月收益中短债基金转型为易 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing trend of bank wealth management products focusing on equity investments, driven by a low-interest-rate environment and the need for higher returns [2][4]. Group 1: Performance of Wealth Management Products - As of December 25, 2025, three wealth management companies, namely Hangyin Wealth Management, Zhongyou Wealth Management, and Ping An Wealth Management, had products listed in the "Fixed Income + Equity" public offering category, with Hangyin having the most products at five [1]. - The weighted annualized return of the listed products is generally high, with six products exceeding 7% and the top three products from Hangyin Wealth Management surpassing 8% [2]. - The top three products from Hangyin Wealth Management increased their equity asset allocation in Q3 2025, with equity asset proportions of 11.76%, 12.20%, and 8.80% respectively [2]. Group 2: New Product Launches and Market Trends - In December 2025, 19 new equity public offering products were launched by wealth management companies, with Huaxia Wealth Management releasing 18 index-based products linked to various sectors such as brain-computer interfaces and AI healthcare [2]. - Minsheng Wealth Management also introduced a new public offering product linked to the CSI Technology Index, focusing on technology innovation with a high-risk rating [3]. - A total of 81 equity public offering products have been issued by 13 wealth management companies, with over half (44 products) established in 2025, indicating a growing trend in equity investment [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Despite the increase in the number of equity products, the proportion of equity investments in bank wealth management remains low, accounting for only 2.1% of the total market size as of Q3 2025, with approximately 720.93 billion yuan in equity assets [3]. - The article suggests that bank wealth management is entering a more certain phase for equity investments, with policies encouraging increased equity allocations and various investment strategies like index and thematic investments becoming mainstream [4]. - Wealth management companies are expected to utilize multiple methods, including offline IPOs and cornerstone investments, to participate in capital markets and achieve stable returns [4].

Global Economic Outlook - In 2025, the global macroeconomic environment shows unexpected resilience amid ongoing tariff uncertainties and continuous technological breakthroughs [1] - Precious metals have performed particularly well, with COMEX gold rising by 60.84% and Shanghai silver increasing by 112.87% year-to-date [1] - The MSCI global index has increased by 20.70% since the beginning of the year, with emerging markets in Asia outperforming those in Europe and the US [1] Market Performance - The Shenzhen Composite Index has risen by 28.02% and the CSI 300 by 17.20% in China, while the Korean Composite Index has surged by 71.12% [1] - The MSCI Vietnam Index has increased by 61.08%, and the Nikkei 225 in Japan has risen by 26.37% [1] - In contrast, major US indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have seen increases of 21.33% and 16.95%, respectively [1] Investment Strategies - Major institutions are adopting a cautious approach towards US equities due to high valuations, with a shift towards regional diversification [4] - HSBC has reduced its overweight position in the US market, emphasizing the importance of Asian markets [4] - Fidelity International is focusing on emerging markets like China, South Korea, and South Africa for more attractive valuations [4] AI Investment Trends - Artificial intelligence (AI) is recognized as a core theme for the global market in 2026, with a shift in focus from hardware to broader ecosystem value creation [7] - AI capital expenditure is expected to exceed $350 billion in 2025 and grow to approximately $500 billion in 2026 [7] - The revenue potential of AI-enabled applications is projected to reach $3.1 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 30% [7] Chinese Economic Policy - Institutions predict that China's macroeconomic policy in 2026 will continue to focus on fiscal stimulus and supportive monetary policy [10] - The fiscal deficit is expected to rise, providing strong support for economic growth, while monetary policy will aim to support the real economy [10] - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is anticipated to be between 4.5% and 5% [11] Asset Allocation - Given the high correlation between traditional assets, diversification is increasingly important, with gold and alternative assets becoming key tools for portfolio resilience [13] - Gold is expected to maintain its position as a significant diversification asset, supported by central bank demand and a weak dollar [13] - In fixed income, the trend of de-dollarization and Asian policy easing creates favorable conditions for local currency government bonds [14]

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The global macroeconomic environment is showing unexpected resilience amid ongoing tariff uncertainties and continuous technological breakthroughs, with precious metals performing particularly well [2] - COMEX gold has seen a year-to-date increase of 60.84%, while Shanghai Futures Exchange silver has surged by 112.87% [2] - Emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region are outperforming their European and American counterparts, with significant gains in indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index (up 28.02%) and the MSCI Vietnam Index (up 61.08%) [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Major institutions are adopting a cautious approach towards the US stock market due to high valuations, with a shift towards regional diversification [4][5] - The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio is nearing 24, prompting a search for more attractive valuations in emerging markets like China, South Korea, and South Africa [5] - HSBC emphasizes the importance of looking beyond the US for investment opportunities, particularly in Asian markets [5] Group 3: AI Investment Trends - Artificial intelligence (AI) is recognized as a core theme for the global market in 2026, with a shift in focus from hardware to broader ecosystem value creation [8] - AI capital expenditure is expected to exceed $350 billion in 2025 and grow to approximately $500 billion in 2026, with a projected revenue scale of $3.1 trillion by 2030 [8][9] - The integration of AI with health sectors presents significant market potential, particularly in China [9] Group 4: Chinese Economic Policy - Institutions predict that China's macroeconomic policy will continue to focus on fiscal stimulus and coordinated monetary policy, with room for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [11] - The fiscal deficit is expected to provide strong support for stable economic growth, with targeted bond issuance to provide additional funding [11] - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is anticipated to be set between 4.5% and 5% [12] Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategies - The necessity for diversified asset allocation has increased due to the high correlation between traditional stocks and bonds, with gold and alternative assets becoming key tools for portfolio resilience [14] - Gold is viewed as a critical asset for diversification and is expected to maintain upward momentum due to central bank demand and capital inflows [14] - A "barbell strategy" for A-shares is suggested, focusing on high-tech growth sectors and high-yield quality stocks to capture profit potential while mitigating risks [15]

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - In 2025, the global macroeconomic environment shows unexpected resilience amid ongoing tariff uncertainties and continuous technological breakthroughs [1] - Precious metals have performed exceptionally well, with COMEX gold rising by 60.84% and Shanghai silver increasing by 112.87% year-to-date [1] - The MSCI global index has increased by 20.70% since the beginning of the year, with emerging markets in Asia outperforming those in Europe and the US [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - Many foreign institutions expect the equity market to continue its growth trend in 2026 despite uncertainties, with a strong interest in AI-related investments [3] - Major institutions are adopting a cautious approach towards US equities due to high valuations, with a shift towards regional diversification, particularly in Asian markets [4][5] - The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio is close to 24, with tech and consumer discretionary sectors reaching around 30, indicating optimistic future earnings expectations [4] Group 3: Focus on Asian Markets - HSBC and other institutions view Asian markets, including Chinese A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, Singapore, and South Korea, as key areas for investment outside the US [5] - The recovery of IPO activities and strong capital inflows into Hong Kong are seen as significant positive factors for the market [5] - China's advancements in AI are expected to support the performance of both offshore and onshore tech stocks in 2025 [5] Group 4: AI Investment Landscape - AI is recognized as the core theme for the global market in 2026, with a shift in focus from hardware investments to broader ecosystem value creation [7] - AI capital expenditure is projected to exceed $350 billion in 2025 and continue growing to approximately $500 billion in 2026 [7] - The revenue potential of AI-enabled applications is expected to reach $3.1 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 30% [7] Group 5: Chinese Economic Policy and Growth - Institutions predict that China's macroeconomic policy in 2026 will focus on fiscal stimulus and supportive monetary policy, with an expected increase in the fiscal deficit rate [10] - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is anticipated to be between 4.5% and 5% [11] - Structural policy measures, particularly in the consumption sector, are expected to play a significant role in stimulating the economy [10] Group 6: Diversification and Alternative Assets - The high correlation among traditional assets has heightened the need for diversification, with gold and alternative assets becoming key tools for portfolio resilience [12] - Gold is favored as a hedge against geopolitical risks, with expectations of continued price support due to central bank demand and a weak dollar [12] - Investors are encouraged to consider alternative diversification tools such as private equity and hedge funds to navigate increasing market uncertainties [12]

Group 1: Copper Price Surge - Recent global copper prices have reached historic highs, with SHFE copper closing at 94,020 CNY/ton and LME copper at 11,952 USD/ton[1] - Structural supply shortages in global copper mining are the core reason for price increases, with production accidents in Chile and Indonesia causing a 6.5% year-on-year decline in output from the top 20 copper mines in Q3[1] - Self-imposed production cuts in smelting further exacerbate supply tightness, with China's CSPT announcing a reduction of over 10% in copper production capacity for 2026[1] Group 2: Demand and Macroeconomic Factors - The macroeconomic environment is supportive, with increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026, enhancing the investment appeal of commodities[1] - Long-term copper price increases are driven by structural changes and rigid growth in demand, particularly in the renewable energy sector, where copper usage in electric vehicles is 2-3 times that of traditional vehicles[1] - The International Copper Study Group predicts that annual demand in the renewable sector will exceed 10 million tons by 2030[1] Group 3: Market Overview - From December 6 to December 13, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.08%, the Hang Seng index by 0.42%, and the S&P 500 by 0.63%[2] - In commodities, SHFE rebar fell by 2.65%, while LME copper rose by 1.47%[2] - The gold-silver ratio decreased to 67.39, while the copper-oil ratio increased to 205.72, reflecting changing asset valuations[2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the transition of Yu Lei, a veteran with over 20 years of experience in corporate pension management, to the public fund sector, specifically in the "fixed income +" space, highlighting the integration of rigorous pension management practices with innovative technology [2][3]. Investment Philosophy and Strategy - Yu Lei's investment philosophy is shaped by her extensive experience in pension management, emphasizing long-term return maximization while controlling drawdowns as a fundamental principle [3][4]. - The essence of "fixed income +" is to assist investors in asset allocation, aiming to smooth volatility and improve the holding experience, thereby avoiding emotional pitfalls in investment decisions [3][4]. Team Structure and Decision-Making - The multi-asset team led by Yu Lei consists of over 50 members, focusing on various types of assets including pensions, secondary bond funds, and funds of funds (FOF) [4]. - The investment framework prioritizes maximizing returns while controlling drawdowns, employing a comparative approach to assess the value of different asset classes dynamically [4][5]. Market Insights and Tactical Adjustments - The team demonstrated a proactive approach by identifying opportunities in the equity market during periods of pessimism and shifting focus to convertible bonds after policy rebounds, showcasing their ability to navigate market fluctuations [5][6]. - A systematic asset allocation framework is established, incorporating various dimensions such as medium to long-term cycles and safety margins, to ensure a comprehensive evaluation of asset values [5][6]. Collaborative Culture and Technology Integration - The team promotes a culture of collaboration and knowledge sharing, which is essential for maintaining stable investment strategies [6][7]. - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) tools, such as the "Alpha replenishment system" and "fund manager DNA system," enhances decision-making by analyzing discussions and identifying high-potential investment insights [7]. Product Offering and Market Outlook - The multi-asset team categorizes "fixed income +" products into three tiers: low wave, medium wave, and medium-high wave, each targeting different risk-return profiles and investment strategies [8][9][10][11]. - The current market outlook remains optimistic for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by expectations of economic cycle evolution, real estate stabilization, and potential RMB appreciation [12]. - The team sees significant growth potential in the "fixed income +" sector, noting that bank wealth management, exceeding 32 trillion yuan, still has a low allocation ratio in this area, indicating room for expansion [12].