证券研究报告 | 2026年02月28日 多资产周报 "暴走"的汇率 核心观点 经济研究·宏观周报 | 证券分析师：邵兴宇 证券分析师：田地 | | --- | | 010-88005483 0755-81982035 | | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cntiandi2@guosen.com.cn | S0980523070001 S0980524090003 "暴走"的汇率。春节前后，人民币汇率显著走强，特别是节后日均升 幅一度达到 239 个基点，在短短几天内连续跌破 6.85、6.80 等关键心 理关口。从原因来看，春节错位所带来的结汇需求在近期集中爆发。2026 年 1、2 月份的工作日分布不均，导致大量本该分散在年初的报关和结 汇需求，在 2 月下旬集中爆发。同时，过去 2-3 年，由于各种因素，约 有 1 万亿美元的出口创汇资金留存在海外账户。人民币汇率短时间内的 快速上涨，触发了这部分巨量资金的"避险式结汇"，形成了所谓的"羊 群效应"。此外，金融机构在处理企业的结汇套保业务时，往往处于汇 率空头地位。随着升值预期转强，机构为了对冲风险，必须在即期市场 回补人民币，这进一步放 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月28日 多资产周报 "暴走"的汇率 多资产图景： 风险提示：海外市场动荡，国内政策执行的不确定性。 核心观点 经济研究·宏观周报 | 证券分析师：邵兴宇 证券分析师：田地 | | --- | | 010-88005483 0755-81982035 | | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cntiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 整体收益方面，本周（2 月 21 日至 2 月 28 日），权益方面，沪深 300 上涨 1.08%，恒生指数上涨 0.83%，标普 500 下跌 0.45%；债券方面，中 债 10 年下跌 0.22BP，美债 10 年下跌 11BP；汇率方面，美元指数下跌 0.11%，离岸人民币升值 0.53%；大宗商品方面，SHFE 螺纹钢上涨 0.35%， 伦敦金现上涨 3.35%，伦敦银现上涨 11.77%，LME 铜上涨 5.41%，LME 铝 上涨 3.43%，WTI 原油上涨 0.82%。 资产比价方面，本周金银比数值为 58.05，较上周下降 4.73；铜油比数 值为 200.53，较上周上升 8.75；铜螺比数值为 33.87 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The document primarily discusses the global economic landscape, focusing on the implications of geopolitical events, particularly the US tariffs on European countries and the potential impact on the Federal Reserve's independence. Core Points and Arguments 1. **US Tariffs on Europe**: President Trump's decision to impose tariffs starting at 10% on February 1, escalating to 25% by June 1, on eight European countries marks a significant escalation in US-Europe tensions. This move is linked to military personnel sent to Greenland, and the EU is considering activating an 'anti-coercion' instrument in response, which could have broader implications than mere tariff retaliation [3][4]. 2. **Impact on Trade Agreements**: The immediate consequence of the tariff increase is the EU's decision to freeze ratifying a previous trade deal with the US, which would prevent tariff reductions on US goods and limit preferential access for US agricultural products [3][4]. 3. **Federal Reserve Independence**: The Supreme Court hearing regarding Governor Cook's eligibility to serve on the Board of Governors could have far-reaching consequences for the Federal Reserve's independence. A ruling against Cook could set a precedent for future administrations to remove opposing votes from monetary policy decisions [4][7]. 4. **Global Economic Outlook**: The global economy showed resilience through Q4, with delayed impacts from tariffs on US inflation and global exports. Global confidence is gradually improving, and several advanced economies are expected to benefit from fiscal stimulus [7]. 5. **Macroeconomic Forecasts**: - Global GDP growth is projected at 3.2% for 2026, with the US at 2.4%, China at 4.5%, and the Eurozone at 1.1% [7]. - The document highlights the significant role of AI in driving US investment growth and global trade, indicating that it is a key factor in equity returns [7]. 6. **Market Volatility and Interest Rates**: The document anticipates increased volatility in markets as geopolitical tensions rise. US 10-year rates have shown fluctuations, and the upcoming Supreme Court hearing is expected to influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions [7]. 7. **Equity Market Outlook**: There is a positive outlook for equities, with a projected 9% upside by the end of 2026. The probability of entering a market bubble has increased to 40%, driven by technological advancements and perceived productivity boosts [7]. 8. **Credit Market Dynamics**: Credit spreads have tightened, supported by a favorable macro backdrop, but there are expectations of widening in Q1 due to resilient credit metrics [7]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The document emphasizes the risks associated with multi-asset investing, including market, credit, interest rate, and foreign exchange risks. It notes that geopolitical events can significantly impact asset returns and that valuations may be adversely affected during periods of high market volatility [8][9]. - The importance of understanding the risks and returns associated with investments is highlighted, advising investors to seek individualized advice before making financial decisions [30][29]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the implications of geopolitical events on the global economy and financial markets.

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decrease in the net loss rate of wealth management products in December, dropping to 0.51% overall, with equity products experiencing the largest decline from 23.81% in November to 12.35% in December [5][3][6]. Group 1: Product Performance - In December, the net loss rate for equity products fell to 12.35%, while mixed and fixed-income products decreased to 2.21% and 0.41%, respectively [5][6]. - By the end of December, 145 out of 28,363 public wealth management products had a cumulative net value below 1, resulting in a net loss ratio of 0.51% [3][6]. - The highest net loss rates were observed in fixed-income products with a 1-2 year term at 0.85%, while mixed products with a term of less than one month had a net loss rate of 4.27% [6][5]. Group 2: New Product Issuance - In December, 32 wealth management companies launched a total of 2,474 new products, marking a 17.42% increase from 2,107 in November [7][10]. - Publicly offered products accounted for 93.9% of new issuances, with fixed-income products making up 96.5% of the new offerings [10][11]. - Notable new products included 18 index-type products launched by Huaxia Wealth Management and a public product linked to the CSI Technology Index by Minsheng Wealth Management [11][12]. Group 3: Expiry and Performance Metrics - A total of 1,160 closed-end RMB wealth management products expired in December, with a performance benchmark lower limit achievement rate of 69.97% and a central benchmark achievement rate of 34.13% [19][24]. - The average annualized yield for fixed-income closed-end RMB public products was 2.31%, while mixed products yielded 2.24% [27][33]. - The highest average annualized yield for fixed-income products was recorded at 2.64% for those with a 1-2 year term [27][25]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The report indicates a shift towards equity investments in wealth management, driven by policy encouragement and a scarcity of assets, with index and thematic investments becoming mainstream [12][11]. - The average net value growth rate for public equity products reached 22.71%, while mixed products saw a growth rate of 4.54% [33][36]. - Fixed-income products continued to show the lowest returns, with an average net value growth rate of 2.24% [33][38].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation in navigating market uncertainties, suggesting that a multi-asset approach can serve as a "ark" to weather market volatility [1]. Group 1: Evolution of Multi-Asset Investment - E Fund has developed a comprehensive multi-asset investment research system over nearly 20 years, evolving from "fixed income+" to a multi-asset and multi-strategy approach [2]. - The firm began its multi-asset investment journey in 2006, launching its first mixed-asset fund in 2013, and established a dedicated multi-asset investment division in 2020 [3]. - As of Q3 2025, E Fund's multi-asset management scale has surpassed 1 trillion yuan, with over 160 billion yuan in public fund management, leading the industry [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Structure - E Fund's multi-asset strategy involves a systematic combination of various asset classes, emphasizing that each asset type plays an equally important role in the portfolio [4]. - The investment process requires both top-down macro analysis and bottom-up asset evaluation, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics [5][6]. - The firm has established a matrix management structure to enhance collaboration across different investment teams, ensuring a holistic approach to multi-asset investment [6][7]. Group 3: Research and Development - E Fund's research teams are organized into specialized groups focusing on asset allocation, equities, bonds, and alternative investments, allowing for in-depth analysis and strategy development [7]. - The firm promotes cross-departmental collaboration, enabling research resources to be shared and enhancing the overall investment process [8][9]. - A strong emphasis is placed on process management and closed-loop management to ensure effective investment decision-making and risk management [10]. Group 4: Diverse Product Offerings - E Fund has created a diverse product matrix catering to different risk and return profiles, including low, medium, and high volatility products [12]. - The firm’s low-volatility products strictly control equity exposure, while medium and high-volatility products allow for greater equity allocation to achieve higher long-term returns [12]. Group 5: Investment Personnel and Methodologies - E Fund has developed a generational talent pipeline, with experienced managers like Zhang Qinghua and Zhang Yajun leading the way in multi-asset investment strategies [14]. - Each fund manager employs distinct methodologies, such as Yang Kang's focus on "asymmetry" and Hu Wenbo's emphasis on mean reversion, to optimize portfolio performance [19][20]. - The firm aims to provide investors with diversified cross-asset solutions through a collaborative and evolving investment platform [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation in navigating market uncertainties, highlighting E Fund's evolution in multi-asset investment strategies over nearly 20 years, showcasing its systematic research and collaborative platform to enhance investment certainty amidst volatility [1][2][4]. Group 1: Evolution of Multi-Asset Investment - E Fund's multi-asset investment journey began in 2006, with the first product management initiated, and evolved from fixed income enhancement to a diversified multi-asset strategy [2][3]. - The establishment of a dedicated multi-asset investment team in 2018 marked a significant step, recognizing the potential in this area as seen in mature overseas markets [3][4]. - By 2023, E Fund launched its global allocation product, indicating a shift towards global multi-asset investment strategies [3][4]. Group 2: Scale and Strategy - E Fund's multi-asset management scale has surpassed 1 trillion yuan, with public fund management exceeding 160 billion yuan as of Q3 2025, positioning it as an industry leader [4]. - The asset categories have expanded from traditional stocks and bonds to include commodities like gold, and the investment scope has broadened from A-shares to global markets, utilizing various investment tools [4][5]. - The emphasis has shifted from "fixed income plus" to a more balanced approach where each asset class plays an equally important role in the portfolio [4][5]. Group 3: Research and Management Framework - E Fund has developed a matrix management structure to enhance investment efficiency, focusing on specialized roles within the investment research team to optimize resource allocation [6][7]. - Cross-departmental collaboration is a key support for the development of multi-asset strategies, facilitated by a culture of openness and shared resources [7][8]. - The investment process is characterized by scientific and meticulous management, with a focus on both qualitative and quantitative assessments to manage risks and optimize asset allocation [9][10]. Group 4: Diverse Product Offerings - E Fund has created a diverse product matrix catering to different risk and return profiles, including low, medium, and high volatility products, ensuring a comprehensive range of investment options [12][13]. - The low-volatility products maintain strict controls on equity exposure, while medium and high-volatility products allow for broader equity allocations to achieve higher long-term returns [12][13]. Group 5: Investment Team and Methodologies - The investment team comprises experienced managers like Zhang Qinghua and Zhang Yajun, who employ a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches to identify investment opportunities [14][15][16]. - Each manager has a distinct investment philosophy, such as Yang Kang's focus on "asymmetry" in asset performance and Hu Wenbo's emphasis on mean reversion strategies [18][19][20]. - The collaborative platform enables managers to specialize in their strengths while benefiting from shared insights across different asset classes [21]. Group 6: Future Outlook - As the asset management industry transitions to a high-quality era, E Fund's systematic approach to multi-asset investment is positioned to provide sustainable returns for investors, leading the industry towards a more mature and intelligent asset allocation landscape [21][22].

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing trend of bank wealth management products focusing on equity investments, driven by a low-interest-rate environment and the need for higher returns [2][4]. Group 1: Performance of Wealth Management Products - As of December 25, 2025, three wealth management companies, namely Hangyin Wealth Management, Zhongyou Wealth Management, and Ping An Wealth Management, had products listed in the "Fixed Income + Equity" public offering category, with Hangyin having the most products at five [1]. - The weighted annualized return of the listed products is generally high, with six products exceeding 7% and the top three products from Hangyin Wealth Management surpassing 8% [2]. - The top three products from Hangyin Wealth Management increased their equity asset allocation in Q3 2025, with equity asset proportions of 11.76%, 12.20%, and 8.80% respectively [2]. Group 2: New Product Launches and Market Trends - In December 2025, 19 new equity public offering products were launched by wealth management companies, with Huaxia Wealth Management releasing 18 index-based products linked to various sectors such as brain-computer interfaces and AI healthcare [2]. - Minsheng Wealth Management also introduced a new public offering product linked to the CSI Technology Index, focusing on technology innovation with a high-risk rating [3]. - A total of 81 equity public offering products have been issued by 13 wealth management companies, with over half (44 products) established in 2025, indicating a growing trend in equity investment [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Despite the increase in the number of equity products, the proportion of equity investments in bank wealth management remains low, accounting for only 2.1% of the total market size as of Q3 2025, with approximately 720.93 billion yuan in equity assets [3]. - The article suggests that bank wealth management is entering a more certain phase for equity investments, with policies encouraging increased equity allocations and various investment strategies like index and thematic investments becoming mainstream [4]. - Wealth management companies are expected to utilize multiple methods, including offline IPOs and cornerstone investments, to participate in capital markets and achieve stable returns [4].

Global Economic Outlook - In 2025, the global macroeconomic environment shows unexpected resilience amid ongoing tariff uncertainties and continuous technological breakthroughs [1] - Precious metals have performed particularly well, with COMEX gold rising by 60.84% and Shanghai silver increasing by 112.87% year-to-date [1] - The MSCI global index has increased by 20.70% since the beginning of the year, with emerging markets in Asia outperforming those in Europe and the US [1] Market Performance - The Shenzhen Composite Index has risen by 28.02% and the CSI 300 by 17.20% in China, while the Korean Composite Index has surged by 71.12% [1] - The MSCI Vietnam Index has increased by 61.08%, and the Nikkei 225 in Japan has risen by 26.37% [1] - In contrast, major US indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have seen increases of 21.33% and 16.95%, respectively [1] Investment Strategies - Major institutions are adopting a cautious approach towards US equities due to high valuations, with a shift towards regional diversification [4] - HSBC has reduced its overweight position in the US market, emphasizing the importance of Asian markets [4] - Fidelity International is focusing on emerging markets like China, South Korea, and South Africa for more attractive valuations [4] AI Investment Trends - Artificial intelligence (AI) is recognized as a core theme for the global market in 2026, with a shift in focus from hardware to broader ecosystem value creation [7] - AI capital expenditure is expected to exceed $350 billion in 2025 and grow to approximately $500 billion in 2026 [7] - The revenue potential of AI-enabled applications is projected to reach $3.1 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 30% [7] Chinese Economic Policy - Institutions predict that China's macroeconomic policy in 2026 will continue to focus on fiscal stimulus and supportive monetary policy [10] - The fiscal deficit is expected to rise, providing strong support for economic growth, while monetary policy will aim to support the real economy [10] - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is anticipated to be between 4.5% and 5% [11] Asset Allocation - Given the high correlation between traditional assets, diversification is increasingly important, with gold and alternative assets becoming key tools for portfolio resilience [13] - Gold is expected to maintain its position as a significant diversification asset, supported by central bank demand and a weak dollar [13] - In fixed income, the trend of de-dollarization and Asian policy easing creates favorable conditions for local currency government bonds [14]

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The global macroeconomic environment is showing unexpected resilience amid ongoing tariff uncertainties and continuous technological breakthroughs, with precious metals performing particularly well [2] - COMEX gold has seen a year-to-date increase of 60.84%, while Shanghai Futures Exchange silver has surged by 112.87% [2] - Emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region are outperforming their European and American counterparts, with significant gains in indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index (up 28.02%) and the MSCI Vietnam Index (up 61.08%) [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Major institutions are adopting a cautious approach towards the US stock market due to high valuations, with a shift towards regional diversification [4][5] - The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio is nearing 24, prompting a search for more attractive valuations in emerging markets like China, South Korea, and South Africa [5] - HSBC emphasizes the importance of looking beyond the US for investment opportunities, particularly in Asian markets [5] Group 3: AI Investment Trends - Artificial intelligence (AI) is recognized as a core theme for the global market in 2026, with a shift in focus from hardware to broader ecosystem value creation [8] - AI capital expenditure is expected to exceed $350 billion in 2025 and grow to approximately $500 billion in 2026, with a projected revenue scale of $3.1 trillion by 2030 [8][9] - The integration of AI with health sectors presents significant market potential, particularly in China [9] Group 4: Chinese Economic Policy - Institutions predict that China's macroeconomic policy will continue to focus on fiscal stimulus and coordinated monetary policy, with room for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [11] - The fiscal deficit is expected to provide strong support for stable economic growth, with targeted bond issuance to provide additional funding [11] - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is anticipated to be set between 4.5% and 5% [12] Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategies - The necessity for diversified asset allocation has increased due to the high correlation between traditional stocks and bonds, with gold and alternative assets becoming key tools for portfolio resilience [14] - Gold is viewed as a critical asset for diversification and is expected to maintain upward momentum due to central bank demand and capital inflows [14] - A "barbell strategy" for A-shares is suggested, focusing on high-tech growth sectors and high-yield quality stocks to capture profit potential while mitigating risks [15]

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - In 2025, the global macroeconomic environment shows unexpected resilience amid ongoing tariff uncertainties and continuous technological breakthroughs [1] - Precious metals have performed exceptionally well, with COMEX gold rising by 60.84% and Shanghai silver increasing by 112.87% year-to-date [1] - The MSCI global index has increased by 20.70% since the beginning of the year, with emerging markets in Asia outperforming those in Europe and the US [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - Many foreign institutions expect the equity market to continue its growth trend in 2026 despite uncertainties, with a strong interest in AI-related investments [3] - Major institutions are adopting a cautious approach towards US equities due to high valuations, with a shift towards regional diversification, particularly in Asian markets [4][5] - The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio is close to 24, with tech and consumer discretionary sectors reaching around 30, indicating optimistic future earnings expectations [4] Group 3: Focus on Asian Markets - HSBC and other institutions view Asian markets, including Chinese A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, Singapore, and South Korea, as key areas for investment outside the US [5] - The recovery of IPO activities and strong capital inflows into Hong Kong are seen as significant positive factors for the market [5] - China's advancements in AI are expected to support the performance of both offshore and onshore tech stocks in 2025 [5] Group 4: AI Investment Landscape - AI is recognized as the core theme for the global market in 2026, with a shift in focus from hardware investments to broader ecosystem value creation [7] - AI capital expenditure is projected to exceed $350 billion in 2025 and continue growing to approximately $500 billion in 2026 [7] - The revenue potential of AI-enabled applications is expected to reach $3.1 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 30% [7] Group 5: Chinese Economic Policy and Growth - Institutions predict that China's macroeconomic policy in 2026 will focus on fiscal stimulus and supportive monetary policy, with an expected increase in the fiscal deficit rate [10] - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is anticipated to be between 4.5% and 5% [11] - Structural policy measures, particularly in the consumption sector, are expected to play a significant role in stimulating the economy [10] Group 6: Diversification and Alternative Assets - The high correlation among traditional assets has heightened the need for diversification, with gold and alternative assets becoming key tools for portfolio resilience [12] - Gold is favored as a hedge against geopolitical risks, with expectations of continued price support due to central bank demand and a weak dollar [12] - Investors are encouraged to consider alternative diversification tools such as private equity and hedge funds to navigate increasing market uncertainties [12]