2026 年 1 月 5 日 星期一 ➢ 每日大市点评 新的一年港股迎来开门红。上周五(1 月 2 日)，恒生指数及国企指数分别收报 26,338 点及 9,169 点，下跌 2.8%及 2.9%。 港股成交合共 1,409 亿港元，较上周三(12 月 31 日)的 1,190 亿港元，上升 18.4%。分类指数方面，资讯科技、原材料、 非必需性消费业指数分别上升 3.9%、3.5%、3.3%；必需性消费、公用事业则仅分别上升 0.9%、0.5%。蓝筹个股方面，百 度集团(9888 HK)及新东方(9901 HK)领涨，分别上升 9.4%及 7.2%；长江基建集团(1038 HK)及 康师傅控股 (322 HK) 领 跌，分别下跌 0.9%及 0.7%。 新股表现理想，料短期有利 IPO 市场的投资情绪。上周五国产 GPU 企业壁仞科技(6082 HK)在港股挂牌上市，涨幅一度约 1.2 倍。虽然其后涨幅收窄，但是收报仍上升 75.6%。 美国突袭委内瑞拉并捉拿其总统马杜罗。特朗普表示，美国将暂时"管理"委内瑞拉，美国石油企业也会参与委内瑞拉 的石油开发。委内瑞拉是全球最大的石油储量国，约占全球储量的 18% ...

Macro Strategy - The report suggests that despite expectations of a slowdown in marginal fiscal funding for 2026, fiscal spending may still exceed expectations due to two main factors: a rebound in prices leading to increased fiscal revenue and a significant amount of fiscal "surplus" carried over from 2025. Specifically, a 1.8 percentage point increase in PPI could generate approximately 260 billion yuan in additional tax revenue, equivalent to a 0.2 percentage point increase in the deficit ratio. Additionally, the fiscal surplus may exceed 500 billion yuan, potentially enhancing the growth rate of general public budget expenditure by about 2.6 percentage points [1][19]. Industry Insights Electronic Industry - The report highlights that the domestic computing power industry is expected to experience significant growth, particularly in 2026, with domestic computing chip leaders likely entering a performance realization phase. The demand for domestic GPUs is anticipated to benefit from capacity releases due to advanced process expansions. The competition among domestic computing chip participants for market share is expected to drive the importance of AI ASIC service providers within the supply chain. Key recommendations include companies like Cambricon and Shengke Communication [9]. 3D DRAM - The report indicates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for 3D DRAM, driven by the rapid increase in storage demand from AI hardware deployment. The technology is expected to support various applications, including robotics, AIoT, and automotive sectors. The report recommends companies such as GigaDevice and Beijing Junzheng as key players in this space [10]. Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is projected to see improvements in both liabilities and assets, with significant upward valuation potential. The demand for insurance remains strong, and the shift towards dividend insurance is expected to optimize liability costs. The report notes that the current valuation of the insurance sector is at historical lows, suggesting a "buy" rating for the industry [12]. Environmental Industry - The report emphasizes the value of the waste incineration sector, driven by declining capital expenditures and improving operating cash flows. The acceleration of national subsidies is expected to enhance cash flow, with projections indicating that the sector's dividend potential could increase significantly as capital expenditures normalize [16]. Computer Industry - The report discusses the intersection of state-owned enterprise reform and local revenue enhancement, predicting that 2026 will see intensified management of local state-owned enterprises, leading to accelerated capital operations [13][14]. Space Computing - The report identifies the space computing industry as a rapidly evolving field, crucial for addressing global computing resource bottlenecks. It highlights the strategic importance of this sector and recommends focusing on companies with technological advantages in key areas [15]. Green Bonds - The report tracks the issuance of green bonds, noting an increase in issuance and a decrease in trading volume in the secondary market. This reflects the growing interest in sustainable finance and the potential for investment opportunities in this area [4][8]. Capital Market Trends - The report outlines trends in the capital markets, including the performance of various commodities and the impact of macroeconomic factors on pricing. It notes that the copper market is experiencing upward pressure due to supply constraints and demand fluctuations, while aluminum prices are also on the rise due to production capacity increases [11]. AI and Technology - The report forecasts that 2026 will mark the beginning of a new era for AI terminals, with major tech companies expected to launch innovative products. The integration of AI into consumer electronics is anticipated to create new market opportunities [9][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - The electronic industry is expected to experience significant growth driven by advancements in AI technology and the domestic supply chain's maturation, particularly in cloud and edge computing [11][15] - The report highlights the importance of 3D DRAM as a key hardware innovation for AI applications, with expectations for substantial demand growth in 2026 [22][27] - The shift towards high-density interconnects and advanced power supply architectures is crucial for supporting the increasing power density of AI data centers [50][56] Summary by Sections Cloud Computing Power - The domestic computing power supply chain is accelerating, with significant performance releases expected from local manufacturers like Zhongke Shuguang and Huawei [11] - The transition from Scale-Out to Scale-Up networking is enhancing bandwidth and reducing latency, which is critical for AI applications [11] Edge Computing Power - The integration of edge and cloud computing is becoming essential for AI applications, with edge devices benefiting from advancements in SoC technology [15][17] - Companies like Jingchen and Ruixinwei are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for edge AI solutions [19] 3D DRAM - 3D DRAM is anticipated to become mainstream in 2026, driven by its high bandwidth and low cost, making it essential for various AI applications [22][27] - Companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation are expected to lead in the development of 3D DRAM technologies [28] AI Models - The optimization of AI models is crucial for enhancing performance and user experience, with a focus on local processing capabilities [29][30] - The collaboration between terminal manufacturers and model providers is expected to evolve, shaping the competitive landscape [30][33] AI Terminals - 2026 marks the beginning of a new era for AI terminals, with major companies like Meta, Apple, and Google launching innovative products [34][36] - The development of new terminal forms, such as smart glasses and desktop robots, is expected to drive market growth [34][35] Longxin Chain - Longxin's expansion plans are set to enhance the DRAM supply chain, with a focus on 3D architecture to improve performance and efficiency [38][39] - The company is expected to benefit from increased capital investment and technological advancements [39][41] Wafer Foundry - The domestic wafer foundry industry is entering a new expansion phase, particularly in advanced logic processes [42][43] - Key players like SMIC and Huahong are expected to lead this expansion, addressing the growing demand for advanced chips [44] PCB Industry - The PCB market is poised for growth, driven by the demand for high-performance materials and advanced designs [45][48] - Companies like Shenghong Technology are expected to benefit from the rising demand for AI-related PCB applications [49] Optical-Copper Interconnection - The demand for optical and copper interconnections is increasing, driven by the growth of AI computing clusters [50][52] - Companies such as Changguang Huaxin are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [53] Server Power Supply - The shift to HVDC power supply architectures is becoming essential for AI data centers, addressing the challenges of increasing power density [55][56] - Companies like Oulu Tong are expected to lead in the development of advanced power supply solutions [56]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant developments in the domestic GPU market, with major players like Moer Technology and Muxi Co. making strides in the capital market, indicating a growing focus on domestic computing power in 2026 [8][9] - The demand for data center optical fibers is expected to surge, with early signs of price increases in the market, driven by the growing need for high-density connections in data centers [11] Industry Commentary - **GPU Market Developments**: - Moer Technology and Muxi Co. have recently entered the STAR Market, while Biran Technology and Tensu Zhixin have passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, marking a pivotal moment for domestic GPGPU players [8] - Moer Technology's recent developer conference showcased its new architecture "Huagang," which promises significant performance improvements, including a 50% increase in density and a tenfold increase in efficiency [8] - Muxi Co. achieved a market capitalization exceeding 280 billion in its first week on the STAR Market, positioning itself as a strong competitor in the domestic GPGPU sector [8] - Biran Technology and Tensu Zhixin are also gaining traction, with Biran's BR106 series and Tensu's GPU products catering to a wide range of clients across various industries [8] - **Optical Fiber Market Trends**: - The report notes a 15% price increase in the common cable and fiber market, with major manufacturers indicating a robust demand for data center optical fibers [11] - By 2025, data center optical fiber demand is projected to account for 5% of global demand, with North America exceeding 14% [11] - The report anticipates that the global demand for data center optical fibers will surpass 50 million core kilometers by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% for AI application fibers [11] - The increasing power density of cabinets and the doubling of GPU bandwidth are expected to drive the demand for high-density MPO optical fibers [11] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in upstream components such as copper connections, switching chips, network card chips, and interface IPs, particularly in the context of the rapid development of supernode servers [9] - Key companies to watch in the domestic supernode sector include Unisplendour, ZTE, Inspur, and others, while the commercial aerospace sector features companies like Shanghai Hanxun and Yifeng Communication [11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, with a focus on the semiconductor and AI industries, as well as the communication sector [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments Technology Sector - The 科创 50 Index has been underperforming recently, but there are positive developments expected in advanced semiconductor production capacity, processes, yields, and domestic GPU sectors, suggesting a renewed focus on the entire technology sector, including AI and related fields [1][2]. - AI investment logic is shifting towards the comprehensive changes brought by large models in social efficiency, costs, and intelligence, leading to revenue generation without relying solely on blockbuster apps [1][5]. - The domestic semiconductor sector is expected to see improvements in advanced production capacity and yield, with domestic chips becoming more competitive [3][17]. AI Sector - The valuation of AI is influenced by the application of large models, with expectations for 2026 MV valuations in the range of 25 to 30 times, indicating potential for upward adjustments in A-share supply chain valuations [3][10]. - The AI industry is forming a closed-loop business logic, with significant portions of AI search and coding applications in overseas markets, indicating a shift from R&D to practical applications [8][9]. - The demand for AI applications is growing, particularly in vertical fields such as AI search, coding, and video, with companies like 美图 and 焦点科技 showing strong performance [22][23]. Communication Sector - The communication industry is witnessing a positive trend in the computing power sector, driven by a rebound in US stocks, improved demand expectations, and strong performance [4]. - Telecom operators are expected to see a rebound in user ARPU values, with a stable operational foundation [4]. - The military communication sector is highlighted for potential opportunities related to the 2026 "15th Five-Year Plan" and the 2027 centenary of the military [4]. Other Important Insights - Liquid cooling technology is crucial for managing increasing chip power consumption, with significant market potential for Chinese suppliers [21]. - The AI chip market is facing a notable power gap, with domestic chips expected to gain traction in the second half of 2025 [20]. - The PCB electronics industry is showing strong performance, with a recovery in both assembly and upstream segments, driven by previous declines and market corrections [11][12]. - The overall AI industry is still in its early stages, but catalysts are emerging that could significantly improve its sustainability and growth prospects [13]. Companies to Watch - In the communication sector, companies like 新易盛, 天孚旭创, and others in the domestic supply chain are highlighted for their strong long-term prospects [7]. - In the AI application space, 美图 and 焦点科技 are noted for their impressive growth and innovative applications [22][23]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the TMT sector, particularly focusing on AI and communication industries.

Key Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the domestic computing power industry chain, indicating that the logic chain of "industry breakthrough - performance verification - demand verification" has gradually been established, leading to a catalytic market environment [3][6] - The report emphasizes the robust growth of Jitu Express, with a total global parcel volume of 7.39 billion pieces in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.5%. The Southeast Asian market showed particularly strong performance, with parcel volume increasing by 65.9% to 1.69 billion pieces [3][7][8] Strategy Research - The domestic computing power industry is entering a high growth cycle, supported by the rapid increase in demand for domestic large models and the upcoming IPOs of key domestic GPU manufacturers, which fill the gap in the A-share market for fully functional GPUs [6] - The report suggests focusing on domestic computing power chips, servers, PCB, and optical communication manufacturers as potential investment opportunities [6] Transportation Sector - Jitu Express's Q2 2025 performance is highlighted, with a total parcel volume of 7.39 billion pieces, marking a new high since its listing. The company has optimized its network and efficiency, significantly enhancing its automation capabilities [7][8] - The Southeast Asian market's strong performance is attributed to strategic partnerships with major e-commerce platforms, which have led to substantial growth in cross-border e-commerce [9] Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in Jitu Express's business volume driven by the e-commerce boom in Southeast Asia, while the optimization of operations in the Chinese market is expected to release profit margins under the "anti-involution" policy [9]