宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期内全面降息的可能性较低 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。中长期来看，宏观经济指标有所走弱说明内需有效需求不足的 问题仍存，未来降息预期仍存，加上大宗商品与权益市场波动加剧，国债投资需求有所上升，国债期 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak. The overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The main reason is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Due to the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation in the short term and the central bank's structural interest rate cut policy, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low, limiting the upward space of Treasury bond futures. With the 10 - year Treasury bond yield falling to around 1.8% and the approaching Spring Festival holiday leading to tightened liquidity, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures weakens. In the long - term, the latest macro - economic indicators are weak, and there is still a problem of insufficient effective demand, so the expectation of future interest rate cuts still exists, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. Overall, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the central bank's structural interest rate cut policy limit the upward space of Treasury bond futures in the short term. As the 10 - year Treasury bond yield falls to around 1.8% and liquidity tightens approaching the Spring Festival, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures weakens. In the long - term, weak macro - economic indicators and insufficient effective demand keep the expectation of future interest rate cuts, providing support for Treasury bond futures. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation due to the decreased possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the overall view is shock consolidation. Although the latest macroeconomic indicators are weak, there is a need for a loose monetary and credit environment and the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, and the demand for bond investment is boosted by risk - aversion. However, due to the structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term possibility of the central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is low, so the bond futures will mainly fluctuate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2603, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is weak, and the view reference is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures rebounded yesterday. The weakening of macroeconomic indicators implies concerns in the demand side, so there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts and strong support for bond futures. The intensified disturbance of the Fed's monetary policy expectation and the volatility of silver also boost the demand for bond investment. But due to the structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term possibility of the central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the upward momentum of bond futures is insufficient [5].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term trends of TL2603 are both in a state of shock, with an intraday weakening trend, generally in a shock - consolidation state due to the reduced possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1] - Treasury bond futures are expected to be in a state of shock consolidation, with upward pressure and downward support. Although there is still an expectation of future interest rate cuts in the context of the Fed moving towards an easing cycle, the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is weak, and the monetary policy is mainly structural, resulting in insufficient upward momentum [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is weak, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties involved are TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures rebounded in shock yesterday. The central bank announced that the January LPR interest rate remained unchanged, in line with market expectations. The current macro - economy has strong resilience, but there are still concerns on the demand side. The policy focuses on supporting technological innovation and promoting domestic consumption circulation. The future monetary and credit environment will still be relatively loose, and there is still an expectation of future interest rate cuts. However, the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is weak, and the monetary policy is mainly structural, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient [5]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there is still an expectation of long - term easing. Treasury bond futures are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1][5] Group 3 1. Variety view reference - Financial futures index sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1] 2. Main variety price market driving logic - Financial futures index sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back yesterday. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. Considering the strong resilience of short - term macro data and the supply - side pressure of intensive Treasury bond issuance in the first quarter, Treasury bond futures prices are under pressure. In the long run, there is still a possibility of interest rate cuts, and the support for Treasury bond futures still exists [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond in the macro and financial sector is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Treasury bond futures are likely to oscillate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and fluctuated horizontally and narrowly throughout the day. The TL variety oscillated and declined. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.24%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.03%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.02% [1] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Open Market - On Thursday, the central bank carried out 177.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 88.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. The central bank also carried out 400 billion yuan of MLF operations, with 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day. The net investment on that day was 188.8 billion yuan [1] 3.2.2 Money Market - On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained at a low level. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.26%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48%, compared with 1.38% in the previous trading day [1] 3.2.3 Cash Bond Market - On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.43 BP to 1.34%, the 5 - year increased by 0.37 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year increased by 0.30 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.50 BP to 2.23% [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year, both lower than market expectations. In November, China's export growth rate was 5.9%, exceeding market expectations. China's CPI and core CPI both decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, with the inflation level remaining moderate. The fourth - quarter meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee pointed out that it is necessary to grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operation conditions. On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly lower, rose slightly in the morning session, continued to rise slightly in the afternoon session and then moved sideways, closing with a small positive line, up 0.60% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.94 trillion yuan, slightly larger than the 1.90 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. The stock market rose on Thursday, while most treasury bond futures moved sideways [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The TL2603 variety is expected to experience short - and medium - term oscillations, with a weaker intraday trend, and overall it will be in an oscillatory consolidation phase. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For financial futures in the stock index sector (including TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the long run, the monetary policy adheres to a moderately loose tone, and the environment for next year is expected to be relatively loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the urgency for monetary easing is not high, and Sino - US relations will be relatively stable before April next year, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. Overall, Treasury bond futures face both upward pressure and downward support, and are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | View Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillatory | Oscillatory | Weaker | Oscillatory consolidation | Low short - term probability of interest rate cuts, long - term expectations of monetary easing [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Weaker - **Medium - term View**: Oscillatory - **Reference View**: Oscillatory consolidation - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures were in a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation yesterday. The long - term monetary policy adheres to a moderately loose tone, and the environment for next year is expected to be relatively loose. The current implied expectation of interest rate cuts in the Treasury bond yield is weak, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the urgency for monetary easing is not high, and Sino - US relations will be relatively stable before April next year, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. Overall, they are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]