投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 3 月 5 日） 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2606 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期内全面降息的可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知 行 合 一 专 业 敬 业 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。目前市场的主要逻辑已经由地缘危机带来的避险情绪转 变为对全球能源供给紧张引发全球 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 避险情绪升温，国债期货震荡上涨 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡上涨。消息面，上周末美伊冲突突然爆发，避险情 绪快速升温，国债的投资需求增加推动价格上涨。不过地缘政治风险只是短 线的扰动因素，国债期货的价格走势仍将回归其自身基本面。当前临近两会 政策时间窗口，政策面强调货币与财政的协同发力，因此政策宽松预计以结 构性为主，短期内全面降息的可能性较低，国债期货的上行驱动有所不足。 而中长期来看，内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，整体上未来货币信用环境偏 宽松，未来降息预期仍存，国债期货具有较强支撑。总的来说，短期内国债 期货维持震荡整理。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation due to the decreased possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the overall view is shock consolidation. Although the latest macroeconomic indicators are weak, there is a need for a loose monetary and credit environment and the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, and the demand for bond investment is boosted by risk - aversion. However, due to the structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term possibility of the central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is low, so the bond futures will mainly fluctuate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2603, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is weak, and the view reference is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures rebounded yesterday. The weakening of macroeconomic indicators implies concerns in the demand side, so there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts and strong support for bond futures. The intensified disturbance of the Fed's monetary policy expectation and the volatility of silver also boost the demand for bond investment. But due to the structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term possibility of the central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the upward momentum of bond futures is insufficient [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Today, treasury bond futures all rebounded in a volatile manner. The latest macroeconomic indicators have weakened, indicating potential concerns on the demand side. A relatively loose monetary and credit environment is needed in the future, and there are still expectations for interest rate cuts, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. Additionally, recent intensified disturbances in the expectations of the overseas Federal Reserve's monetary policy have led to sharp fluctuations in silver, boosting the investment demand for treasury bonds due to the risk - averse sentiment. However, the central bank implemented a structural interest rate cut in January, and the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has slowed down. The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank in the short term is low, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly be in a volatile consolidation in the short term [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News and Related Charts - On February 5th, the People's Bank of China announced that it carried out 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method with an operation rate of 1.4%. At the same time, it carried out 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tender, and multiple - price winning method. With 345 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturing today, the open market achieved a net injection of 64.5 billion yuan [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2603 is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak - biased", and the overall view is "oscillation consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak - biased", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation consolidation". The core logic is that although the manufacturing PMI in January returned to the contraction range, indicating insufficient effective demand and a future loose monetary and credit environment that provides strong support for Treasury bond futures, due to the central bank's structural interest rate cut in January and the increasing expectation of the Fed's delayed interest rate cut, the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank is low, so Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Weak - biased | Oscillation consolidation | The possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Weak - biased - **Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Reference View**: Oscillation consolidation - **Core Logic**: The Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The manufacturing PMI in January returned to the contraction range, indicating insufficient effective demand, which is consistent with the weak performance of December's consumption, investment, and credit data. This means that the future monetary and credit environment will be relatively loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, considering the central bank's structural interest rate cut in January and the increasing expectation of the Fed's delayed interest rate cut, the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank is low, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of Treasury bond futures is to oscillate and consolidate. The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term has decreased. Although there is support due to the need for a loose monetary and credit environment, the upward momentum is insufficient because the macro - demand has resilience and the urgency of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is weak [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak. The overall view is oscillatory consolidation, with the core logic being the reduced possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that last Friday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. Due to the existing problem of relatively insufficient domestic demand and the policy support for technological innovation and consumption internal circulation, the future monetary and credit environment needs to be loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, the macro - demand has resilience, and the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is weak, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term trends of TL2603 are both in a state of shock, with an intraday weakening trend, generally in a shock - consolidation state due to the reduced possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1] - Treasury bond futures are expected to be in a state of shock consolidation, with upward pressure and downward support. Although there is still an expectation of future interest rate cuts in the context of the Fed moving towards an easing cycle, the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is weak, and the monetary policy is mainly structural, resulting in insufficient upward momentum [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is weak, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties involved are TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures rebounded in shock yesterday. The central bank announced that the January LPR interest rate remained unchanged, in line with market expectations. The current macro - economy has strong resilience, but there are still concerns on the demand side. The policy focuses on supporting technological innovation and promoting domestic consumption circulation. The future monetary and credit environment will still be relatively loose, and there is still an expectation of future interest rate cuts. However, the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is weak, and the monetary policy is mainly structural, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient [5]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides views on financial futures in the bond market, including short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks [1][5] - The overall investment view is that Treasury bond futures will be in a state of shock consolidation in the short term [1][5] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the Treasury bond futures will be in shock consolidation [1][5] - Although the macro - economic demand has strong resilience, there are still structural problems, and the effective demand of the household sector is still weak [5] - The future monetary and credit environment will still be relatively loose, and there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut in the future, but the urgency of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is weak [5] Group 4: Summary by Variety TL2603 - Short - term view: Shock [1] - Medium - term view: Shock [1] - Intraday view: Weak [1] - Core logic: The short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1] TL, T, TF, TS - Intraday view: Weak [5] - Medium - term view: Shock [5] - Reference view: Shock consolidation [5] - Core logic: The macro - economic demand has strong resilience but with structural problems, the future monetary and credit environment is loose, there is an expectation of an interest rate cut in the future, but the short - term urgency of a comprehensive interest rate cut is weak, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient [5]