Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No information provided. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Spot price is 5632, futures price is 5628, basis is -4, and historical quantile is 54.90% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Spot price is 5940, futures price is 2835, basis is 108, and historical quantile is 46.30% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Spot price is 3240, futures price is 3123, and historical quantile is 52.10% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Spot price is 3270, futures price is 3280, basis is -10, and historical quantile is -0.30% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Historical quantile of the converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder is 78.70% [1]. - **Coke (J2605)**: Historical quantile of the converted price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 78.70% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Spot price is 1156, historical quantile of the converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal is 35.30% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2603)**: Spot price is 103060, futures price is 101660, basis is -1400, and historical quantile is 1.45% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2603)**: Spot price is 25640, futures price is 24260, basis is -1380, and historical quantile is 0.20% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Spot price is 2811, futures price is 2626, basis is -185, and historical quantile is -6.58% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2603)**: Information about SMM 1 zinc ingot average price is provided [1]. - **Tin (SN2603)**: Spot price is 443800, futures price is 436600, basis is -7200, and historical quantile is 1.62% [1]. - **Nickel (MISE03)**: Spot price is 142900, futures price is 144370, basis is -1470, and historical quantile is 9.58% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2603)**: Spot price is 14670, futures price is 14465, basis is 505, and historical quantile is 39.48% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Spot price is 172000, futures price is 166280, and historical quantile is 99.11% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2605)**: Spot price is 9250, futures price is 8760, basis is 490, and historical quantile is 31.19% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2604)**: Spot price is 1186.2, futures price is 1184.0, basis is -2.2, and historical quantile is -0.20% [1]. - **Silver (AG2604)**: Spot price is 29310.0, futures price is 29219.0, basis is 91.0, and historical quantile is 0.30% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Spot price is 3070, futures price is 2782.0, and historical quantile is 69.20% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2605)**: Spot price is 8690, futures price is 8326.0, basis is 364.0, and historical quantile is 65.60% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Spot price is 9220, futures price is 9270.0, basis is -50.0, and historical quantile is 11.40% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: Spot price is 2480, futures price is 2297.0, basis is 183.0, and historical quantile is 81.80% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Oleos)**: Spot price is 10160, and historical quantile is 96.90% [1]. - **Corn (C2603)**: Spot price is 2360, futures price is 2274.0, basis is 100.0, and historical quantile is 77.60% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2603)**: Spot price is 2630, futures price is 2530.0, and historical quantile is 46.20% [1]. - **Live Pigs (H2603)**: Spot price is 13150, futures price is 11270.0, basis is 1880.0, and historical quantile is 90.50% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2603)**: Spot price is 3960, futures price is 3048.0, basis is 912.0, and historical quantile is 89.10% [1]. - **Cotton (CF605)**: Spot price is 15650, futures price is 14940.0, basis is 710.0, and historical quantile is 26.60% [1]. - **Sugar (SR605)**: Spot price is 5330, futures price is 5187.0, basis is 143.0, and historical quantile is 21.40% [1]. - **Apples (AP605)**: Spot price is 9532.0, futures price is 9400, basis is -132.0, and historical quantile is 17.90% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ605)**: Spot price is 8830.0, futures price is 8000, basis is -830.0, and historical quantile is 50.90% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX603)**: Spot price is 7392.0, futures price is 7397.0, basis is -90.0, and historical quantile is 32.80% [1]. - **PTA (TA605)**: Spot price is 5370.0, futures price is 5280.0, and historical quantile is 20.20% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: Spot price is 3970.0, futures price is 3845.0, basis is -125.0, and historical quantile is 13.10% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2603)**: Spot price is 7785.0, futures price is 8015.0, basis is 230.0, and historical quantile is 70.10% [1]. - **Methanol (MA605)**: Spot price is 2290.0, futures price is 2339.0, basis is -49.0, and historical quantile is 11.70% [1]. - **Urea (UR605)**: Spot price is 1760.0, futures price is 1799.0, and historical quantile is 7.00% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Spot price is 6825.0, futures price is 6967.0, basis is -142.0, and historical quantile is 1.60% [1]. - **PP (PP2605)**: Spot price is 6778.0, futures price is 6740.0, basis is -38.0, and historical quantile is -0.56% [1]. - **PVC (V2605)**: Spot price is 4700.0, futures price is 4913.0, basis is -213.0, and historical quantile is 25.10% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH603)**: Spot price is 1872.0, futures price is 1969.0, basis is -97.0, and historical quantile is 29.00% [1]. - **LPG (PG2603)**: Spot price is 4848.0, futures price is 4286.0, basis is 562.0, and historical quantile is 74.10% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2603)**: Spot price is 3210.0, futures price is 3410.0, basis is -200.0, and historical quantile is 12.50% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2603)**: Spot price is 13000.0, futures price is 13265.0, basis is -265.0, and historical quantile is 14.48% [1]. - **Glass (FG605)**: Spot price is 932.0, futures price is 1067.0, basis is -135.0, and historical quantile is 18.48% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA605)**: Information about the market price in Chongqing and Shahe is provided [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: Spot price is 15950.0, futures price is 16360.0, basis is -410.0, and historical quantile is 66.94% [1]. Financial Futures - **IF2603.CFE**: Spot price is 4732.8, futures price is 4718.0, basis is 14.8, and historical quantile is 93.60% [1]. - **IH2603.CFE**: Spot price is 3069.8, futures price is 3060.6, basis is 9.2, and historical quantile is 94.30% [1]. - **IC2603.CFE**: Spot price is 8622.0, futures price is 8601.2, basis is 20.8, and historical quantile is 98.30% [1]. - **IM2603.CFE**: Spot price is 8399.8, futures price is 8377.8, basis is -22.0, and historical quantile is 55.60% [1]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2603)**: Spot price is 102.39, futures price is 100.09, basis is 0.01, and historical quantile is 32.10% [1]. - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2603)**: Spot price is 105.86, futures price is 99.67, basis is 0.04, and historical quantile is 34.30% [1]. - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2603)**: Spot price is 108.19, futures price is 100.58, basis is 0.08, and historical quantile is 28.00% [1]. - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2603)**: Spot price is 126.60, futures price is 112.09, basis is 0.35, and historical quantile is 51.70% [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The A - share index has rebounded continuously, with significant inflows into broad - based ETFs recently, and the downside space is limited. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. The post - holiday market has a strong upward momentum, and it is recommended to hold bull spread portfolios and build covered call portfolios [3]. - The current abundant capital supports the bond market, but concerns about supply and the strengthening of equities restrain the performance of long - term bonds. Market consistency behavior may amplify fluctuations, and the stabilization or repair of long - term bonds will occur after the supply structure of government bonds becomes clearer [3]. - Geopolitical risks and tight supply continue to drive up the prices of non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Gold is expected to maintain high - volatility operation in January, and silver is recommended to be lightly long - held with low positions in high - volatility markets [3]. - Steel production is being cut and inventories are being reduced, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the iron ore market, more steel mills are resuming production, and attention should be paid to the impact of finished product export policies [3]. - Coal prices in Shanxi are running weakly, and coking coal and coke are viewed bearishly. The market sentiment for ferrosilicon has improved, and the price of manganese silicon is affected by ore support and supply - demand contradictions [3]. - Concerns about the stability of metal supply have intensified, driving up copper prices. Aluminum prices have reached new highs, but there are signs of over - rising in the short term. Zinc prices have moved up, and tin prices are oscillating strongly [3]. - The organic silicon industry is reducing production to support prices, and the polysilicon futures have fallen after rising. The lithium carbonate market has a strong sentiment, and supply disruptions are expected to intensify [3]. - The prices of PX and PTA are expected to oscillate at high levels, and short - fiber follows the raw material fluctuations. The supply and demand of bottle chips are both decreasing in January, and the processing fee has limited upward space [3]. - Ethanol is in a seasonal inventory - building period, and the price is under pressure. The supply - demand situation of benzene is slightly improving, but high inventories still put pressure on prices [3]. - The LLDPE market has strong orders, and the price of PP has strengthened slightly. The port price of methanol is strong, and the futures of caustic soda have rebounded strongly [3]. - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the urea market has improved after the Indian tender results were announced. The soda ash and glass markets have rebounded due to macro factors, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of production and sales [3]. - The prices of agricultural products such as soybeans, rapeseed meal, and corn are expected to oscillate. The prices of edible oils are oscillating within a range, and the prices of sugar are rebounding slightly [3]. - The egg supply is stable, and the apple market is driven by the shortage of high - quality fruits. The price of cotton is expected to oscillate strongly, and the price of red dates has stabilized [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Nickel (NI2602) is expected to fluctuate strongly; Methanol (MA2605) is expected to be strong in the short term; Iron ore (I2605) is recommended for short - term long - position attempts; Live pigs (LH2603) are expected to fluctuate strongly; Silver (AG2604) is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share index has rebounded, and the stock index has reached new highs. It is recommended to hold bull spread portfolios and build covered call portfolios. Core assets and technology - leading stocks represented by IH and IC are dominant [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is supported by abundant funds, but long - term bonds are restricted. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage, and steepen the yield curve [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and tight supply drive up prices. Gold should be held long above $4300, silver should be lightly long - held with low positions, and platinum and palladium should be long - held at low positions [3]. Commodity Sector - **Steel and Iron**: Steel prices are range - bound, iron ore is recommended for short - term long - positions, coking coal and coke are bearish, ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and manganese silicon is for range - bound operations [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper prices are rising, aluminum prices are at new highs but not recommended to be chased, zinc prices are rising, tin prices are strongly oscillating, and nickel and stainless steel are recommended for long - positions at low prices [3]. - **New Energy and Chemicals**: Organic silicon and polysilicon futures have fallen after rising, lithium carbonate is recommended to wait and see, PX and PTA are for high - level oscillations and low - level long - positions, and short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: LLDPE is recommended for short - term long - positions, PP should focus on PDH profit expansion, methanol is recommended for long - positions at low prices, and caustic soda is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybeans, rapeseed meal, and corn are expected to oscillate, edible oils are range - bound, sugar is slightly rebounding, cotton is expected to oscillate strongly, and red dates are recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond in the macro and financial sector is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Treasury bond futures are likely to oscillate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and fluctuated horizontally and narrowly throughout the day. The TL variety oscillated and declined. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.24%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.03%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.02% [1] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Open Market - On Thursday, the central bank carried out 177.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 88.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. The central bank also carried out 400 billion yuan of MLF operations, with 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day. The net investment on that day was 188.8 billion yuan [1] 3.2.2 Money Market - On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained at a low level. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.26%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48%, compared with 1.38% in the previous trading day [1] 3.2.3 Cash Bond Market - On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.43 BP to 1.34%, the 5 - year increased by 0.37 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year increased by 0.30 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.50 BP to 2.23% [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year, both lower than market expectations. In November, China's export growth rate was 5.9%, exceeding market expectations. China's CPI and core CPI both decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, with the inflation level remaining moderate. The fourth - quarter meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee pointed out that it is necessary to grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operation conditions. On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly lower, rose slightly in the morning session, continued to rise slightly in the afternoon session and then moved sideways, closing with a small positive line, up 0.60% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.94 trillion yuan, slightly larger than the 1.90 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. The stock market rose on Thursday, while most treasury bond futures moved sideways [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and evaluations of various futures contracts, covering multiple sectors such as finance, metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, and gives corresponding operation suggestions based on market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selected Views - NI2601 is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. - L2601 (LLDPE) is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. - rb2501 (coking coal) is expected to rebound from the bottom [3]. - M2605 (soybean meal) is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. 3.2 Full - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to weak economic data in November, the stock index continued to trade in a shrinking - volume range. There is no clear upward trend, and the market lacks a dominant theme. It is advisable to be cautious about the risk of chasing highs in the trading range and appropriately lay out bull spreads at low levels [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is still insensitive to economic data. In the absence of allocation demand, ultra - long bonds are weak. The upper limit of the 10 - year yield is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. T2603 should pay attention to the support around 107.6. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider the market as a narrow - range fluctuation. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage and basis widening opportunities of the 2603 contract [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold needs to build momentum to break through the previous high. Pay attention to the impact of US economic data and Fed officials' statements on market sentiment. Buy gold below $4,300. Silver may enter the overbought zone, so it is recommended to wait and see. For platinum and palladium, operate based on the external market, buy on dips, or use out - of - the - money call options instead of long positions, and control positions [3]. 3.2.2 Commodity Futures Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile in the range of 730 - 780. Consider the opportunity to expand the ratio of rebar to iron ore as iron water production drops. Go long on the January rebar - to - iron ore ratio [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is expected to trade in the range of 1,000 - 1,150, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread. Coke is expected to trade in the range of 1,450 - 1,600, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, hold long - term long positions and pay attention to the support at 90,000 - 91,000. For aluminum, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21,700 - 22,400, and go long on dips. For zinc, pay attention to the support at 23,000 - 23,200 and continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage. For tin, hold previous long positions and buy on dips. For nickel, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 110,000 - 118,000. For stainless steel, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12,200 - 12,800 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Petrochemicals**: PX is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term. PTA is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and pay attention to the low - level positive spread opportunity for TA5 - 9. For short - fiber, the processing fee is mainly compressed, and the operation is the same as PTA. For bottle - grade polyester, the inventory decline supports the processing fee, and pay attention to the device restart and production progress. For ethanol, sell EG2605 - C - 4100 to obtain time value [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: For natural rubber, the price is expected to trade in a range, and it is advisable to wait and see. For synthetic rubber, due to the strengthening of the cost side, BR has risen strongly, and sell BR2602 - C - 11200 at high prices [3]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: For soybeans and soybean meal, the US soybeans have no bright spots, and pay attention to China's soybean customs clearance policy. For corn, the arrival volume has increased slightly, and the price is expected to be volatile and adjust. For edible oils, the US biodiesel blending quota is undecided, which may be negative for the oil market. The main contract of palm oil may test the support at 8,200 - 8,300 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: For pigs, the market is in a bottom - grinding phase. For eggs, pay attention to the support at the previous low. For apples, the price is expected to be volatile around 9,500 in the short term. For dates, high - sell and low - buy due to supply pressure and weak demand [3]. - **Cash Crops**: For sugar, the price is expected to be weakly volatile. For cotton, the price is expected to be strongly volatile, and pay attention to the resistance around 14,050 - 14,100 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25bp and its dovish stance have improved short - term global liquidity expectations, but the market has not formed an upward force. The Central Economic Working Conference in China has set the tone for a loose fiscal and monetary policy in 2026, which stabilizes confidence. Different futures varieties show various trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Selected Views - For SN2601, the market is expected to be strong; for V2601, there is still an expectation of over - supply, and the price continues to seek the bottom; for rb2505, the market is expected to be weakly volatile; for O1605, the market is expected to be strongly volatile [3] Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial - **Stock Index**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut and the Central Economic Working Conference in China, the A - share market showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The market trading sentiment is not high, and it is necessary to be cautious about the risk of chasing high in the volatile range. It is advisable to appropriately lay out a bull spread at low prices. The expectation of a loose monetary policy at the end of the year may rise again, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may decline towards 1.75%, with a downward space of about 6BP. In terms of strategies, one can participate in going long on the T contract on dips and try to go long on the TL contract with a light position. Also, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: After the Central Economic Working Conference, the expectation of a loose monetary policy has risen. In the short - term, the expectation of a loose monetary policy in the market may improve. One can participate in going long on the T contract on dips and try to go long on the TL contract with a light position. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [3] - **Precious Metals**: The short - term gold price is approaching the previous high, and it is mainly recommended to buy on dips. The silver market may enter the over - bought range, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing high and reduce long positions in a timely manner. The platinum - palladium market follows the fluctuations of gold and silver, and it is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract fluctuates upward, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Metals - **Steel**: Negative feedback affects the steel price to be weak. Pay attention to the decline opportunity of the January rebar - iron ore ratio. For the hot - rolled coil, close the January hot - rolled coil - rebar spread position [3] - **Iron Ore**: With the decline of hot - metal production and the increase of port inventory, the iron ore market turns weakly volatile, and it is viewed as bearish in the range of 730 - 780 [3] - **Coking Coal**: The price - cut range of local coal prices expands, and the Mongolian coal price drops. The futures price shows a weak decline, and it is viewed as bearish in the range of 950 - 1100. One can go long on coke and short on coking coal [3] - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts for coke in December has started, and the port trading price has led the decline. It is viewed as bearish in the range of 1450 - 1600. One can go long on coke and short on coking coal [3] - **Copper**: The Fed cuts interest rates by 25bp. Pay attention to the structural risk of overseas inventory. Hold long positions in the long - term, and the main contract should pay attention to the support at 90000 - 91000 [3] - **Alumina**: Market pessimism spreads, and there is no obvious marginal change in the short - term fundamentals. The main contract operates in the range of 2400 - 2700. Short - term traders can lay out long positions on dips to bet on an emotional rebound [3] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory continues to decline weekly, and the macro - fundamentals resonate, making the market run strongly. The main contract operates in the range of 21700 - 22400. Buy on dips [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price rebounds slightly following the aluminum price, and the aluminum - alloy - aluminum price spread expands to 1000. The main contract operates in the range of 20700 - 21400. Conduct an arbitrage of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [3] - **Zinc**: The US dollar is weakly running. Inventory depletion and the decline of TC boost the zinc price. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 23000 - 23200. Continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage [3] - **Tin**: The fundamentals are strong, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. Pay attention to the US interest - rate decision. Hold the previous long positions, and adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [3] - **Nickel**: After the macro - factors are settled, the upward space of the price is limited, and the market continues to decline. The main contract operates in the range of 116000 - 120000 [3] - **Stainless Steel**: The market fluctuates and declines slightly. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory depletion is insufficient. The main contract operates in the range of 12400 - 12800 [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The coking coal futures price continues to decline, and the industrial silicon price fluctuates. The main contract operates in the range of 8000 - 8800 [3] New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The inventory increases slightly, and the polysilicon futures price continues to rise. It fluctuates at a high level, and the main contract operates in the range of 50000 - 60000 [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by news and strong capital, the market rise expands. It fluctuates strongly, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation is tight, and the PX price has support at a low level. Treat it as a short - term high - level fluctuation [3] - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and the driving force is limited. The PTA price mainly fluctuates at a high level in the short - term. Pay attention to the low - level positive arbitrage opportunity of TA5 - 9 [3] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and it follows the raw material price fluctuation. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA, and try to reduce the processing margin on the futures price when it is high [3] - **Bottle - Chip**: In December, the supply - demand pattern of bottle - chips remains loose, and it follows the raw material price fluctuation. The processing margin is expected to be squeezed. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA. The processing margin of the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to reduce the processing margin in the short - term [3] - **Ethanol**: The cost side drops, dragging the EG price to decline in a fluctuating manner. Wait and see [3] - **Benzene**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply - demand is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. The short - term driving force of BZ2603 is weak, and it may follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices [3] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there is certain support at the bottom. The EB01 fluctuates and consolidates at a low level in the short - term [3] - **LLDPE**: The upstream reduces the price to sell goods, and the transaction improves. Wait and see [3] - **PP**: The spot price is stable, and the basis strengthens slightly. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [3] - **Methanol**: The near - term basis is firm, and the transaction is okay. Try to reduce the MTO margin of the 05 contract [3] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and it continues to run weakly. Treat it bearishly [3] - **PVC**: The contradiction of oversupply has not improved, and the market further weakens. Treat it bearishly [3] - **Soda Ash**: The production is at a high level, and the oversupply is prominent. The market continues to weaken. Hold short positions [3] - **Glass**: The production - sales ratio declines, and the spot price in some regions weakens. The market continues to explore the bottom. Treat it bearishly [3] - **Natural Rubber**: Pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. Wait and see [3] - **Synthetic Rubber**: After the interest - rate cut, the BR price rises, but the supply in the upper and middle reaches is abundant. It is expected that there is pressure above. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies for BR2602, and pay attention to the pressure around 10800 [3] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean market has no bright spots. Pay attention to the domestic soybean customs - clearance policy. The market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [3] - **Pig**: The demand for curing bacon provides support. Pay attention to the epidemic situation. It is in a bottom - grinding market [3] - **Corn**: The increase in supply is limited, and the market fluctuates. It adjusts in a fluctuating manner [3] - **Edible Oil**: The soybean oil price follows the rapeseed oil price to rise. The palm oil price has support at 8000. The P main contract tests the support at 8000 [3] - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar - pressing progress is good. It fluctuates at the bottom [3] - **Cotton**: The purchase of Xinjiang seed cotton is over. Pay attention to the pressure situation around 14000 [3] - **Egg**: The sales at high prices slow down, and the supply is still abundant. It fluctuates weakly. Pay attention to the support strength at the previous low [3] - **Apple**: Traders mainly make inquiries, and the sales of apples slow down. It may fluctuate around 9500 in the short - term [3] - **Jujube**: There is supply pressure, and the market fluctuates at a low level. It runs at a low level [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading opportunities for A - share index futures are limited due to low trading volume and volatility [2]. - The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September, and the allocation value of bonds within 10 years is relatively improved. The 30 - year bonds may be oversold under emotional drive. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees [2]. - Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits [2]. - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - For steel, it is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage. Iron ore is in high - level consolidation, and coking coal and coke are also in a consolidation state [2]. - Copper prices are rising again, and aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for various non - ferrous metals [2][3]. - For new energy and chemical products, different products have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited [3]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different market situations, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different trends, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share index futures have low trading volume and volatility, and the short - term trading space is limited. The dividend sector is firm, and the index futures are trading weakly [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September. The 30 - year bonds are relatively weak, and the short - term market driver may come from the policy expectation difference. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. The positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract is recommended for the spot - futures strategy [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits. Platinum and palladium should be traded with a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy, and the long - platinum and short - palladium hedge should take profits at high levels [2]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. It is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage and narrow the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment is increasing, the arrival is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. It is in high - level consolidation, with the range from 750 to 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The price reduction range of coal in the production area is expanding, and the price of Mongolian coal is stable. The futures price is falling again, with the range from 1050 to 1150, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts in December has been implemented, and the port trading price is falling. It is in a consolidation state, with the range from 1550 to 1700, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. Non - Ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The LME cancelled warehouse receipts are increasing significantly, and copper prices are rising again. The short - term decline space is limited [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for aluminum, waste aluminum, and aluminum alloy, with corresponding price ranges [2][3]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: For zinc, supply reduction and interest - rate cut expectations provide support, but the spot trading is dull [4]. For other non - ferrous metals such as tin, nickel, and stainless steel, different market trends and trading suggestions are provided [3]. New Energy and Chemical Sector - **New Energy**: Different new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as polysilicon futures rising while the spot price is stable [3]. - **Chemical Products**: Different chemical products have different market situations, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Different energy and chemical products such as LLDPE, PP, and methanol have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - Different agricultural products such as palm oil, sugar, and cotton have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Near the December Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, the U.S. dollar index has recently peaked and declined, and further interest rate cuts are still likely. A-share major indices have also rebounded, but the trading volume does not support a breakthrough [3]. - The short - term bond market still lacks a driving factor to break out of the shock and may remain in a narrow - range shock [3]. - Gold prices are in a shock around $4200, and there is still resistance at the previous high. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60 [3]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to be in a short - term shock, while steel mills are reducing production, and iron ore shipments are rising [3]. - The fundamentals of aluminum are showing positive feedback, and the macro and micro factors are resonating to drive the price up [3]. - For new energy products, the market for polysilicon futures has declined, and the lithium carbonate market may see increased divergence [3]. - In the chemical industry, the medium - term supply - demand outlook for PX is improving, and the short - term support is strong [3]. - In the agricultural products market, the northern hemisphere sugar cane crushing season is progressing well, and the downstream cotton market remains weak [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Directories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: Short - term light - position selling of December put options is recommended. When the volatility is low, build long - spread positions in stages during pullbacks to layout for the spring market [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the short term, reduce left - hand operations and wait and see. Pay attention to the implementation of the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. Consider the positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Be cautious about chasing long positions in gold unilaterally. Sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. For silver, lock in profits after accumulating floating profits. Adopt a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy for platinum and palladium [3]. Black - **Steel**: Consider a long - steel and short - iron - ore arbitrage strategy and narrow the spread between hot - rolled and rebar [3]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to be strong in a shock, with a reference range of 750 - 820 [3]. - **Coking Coal**: It is expected to be in a shock, with a reference range of 1050 - 1150. Consider a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Coke**: It is expected to be in a shock, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700. Consider a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [3]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: Take profits at high levels in the short term, and pay attention to the support at 86000 - 87000 [3]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: For aluminum, go long at low levels in the short term, with a reference range of 21500 - 22200. For other aluminum - related products, different price ranges are provided [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Hold previous long positions in tin and adopt a low - buying strategy during pullbacks. Other non - ferrous metals also have their corresponding price ranges and operation suggestions [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Consider closing out out - of - the - money put options for profit [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see as the market is in a wide - range shock [3]. Chemical - **PX**: Treat it as a short - term high - level shock [3]. - **PTA and Related Products**: PTA is expected to be in a short - term high - level shock. For related products, different operation suggestions such as narrowing processing fees are provided [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Different products have different operation suggestions, such as short - selling at high levels for benzene, and waiting for short - selling opportunities after rebounds for PVC and soda ash [3]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The short - term outlook for palm oil is optimistic, and it may test the resistance at 8800. Other grains and oils are expected to be in a narrow - range shock [3]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar is in a bottom - level shock, and cotton should pay attention to the resistance at 13800 - 13900 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: Hold the inter - month reverse arbitrage for pigs. For eggs, wait and see unilaterally and consider reverse arbitrage opportunities [3]. - **Fruits and Nuts**: Apples may oscillate around 9500 in the short term, and jujubes are in a weak - level shock [3].

Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - The domestic stock index is resilient, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. After the third - quarter reports, A - shares are in a repricing adjustment, with short - term periodic callbacks and rebounds, and limited downside risks. The market volume is shrinking, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The short - term bond market is in a box - type shock stage. For 10 - year treasury bonds, the active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate in a narrow range of 1.8% - 1.83%. Different treasury bond futures contracts have their respective expected fluctuation ranges. Unilateral, migration, and cash - futures strategies are recommended accordingly [2]. - Gold is currently oscillating in the range of $4050 - $4150, and may rise to over $4200 if it breaks through the resistance. Silver follows gold but has a larger amplitude, oscillating in the range of $50 - $52.5. Short - term light - position long positions can be tried if volatility increases [2]. - The container shipping index (European Line) is in short - term shock downward movement [2]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize with the recovery of apparent demand. Iron ore is oscillating with a bullish bias, while coking coal and coke are viewed as bearish in the shock [2]. - Copper prices have risen and then fallen due to stronger interest - rate cut expectations. Other non - ferrous metals have their own expected price ranges and trends [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, various products such as PTA, short - fiber, and others have different market trends and trading strategies recommended [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products like soybean meal, pigs, and others have different supply - demand situations and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Category Financial - **Stock Index**: Domestic stock index is resilient. After the third - quarter reports, A - shares are repricing. Short - term periodic fluctuations with limited downside. Market volume shrinking, recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term box - type shock. Different contracts have specific expected fluctuation ranges. Unilateral, migration, and cash - futures strategies are recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold oscillates between $4050 - $4150, may rise above $4200 if breaking resistance. Silver fluctuates more with gold, in the range of $50 - $52.5. Short - term light - position long positions can be tried if volatility increases [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to stabilize due to apparent demand recovery. Recommend to pay attention to support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating with a bullish bias, in the range of 750 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Viewed as bearish in the shock, in the range of 1050 - 1150 [2]. - **Coke**: Viewed as bearish in the shock, in the range of 1550 - 1700 [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices rise and then fall due to stronger interest - rate cut expectations, with a reference range of 85500 - 87500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: With a confrontation between strong expectations and weak reality, prices may decline further if the position continues to be reduced, with a reference range of 21100 - 21700 [2]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each has its own expected price range and trading suggestions [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Petrochemical Products**: Different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fiber have different supply - demand situations and trading strategies [2]. - **Plastics and Chemicals**: Products like LLDPE, PP, and methanol have their own market trends and recommended operations [2]. - **Building Materials**: Glass rebounds with the cold - repair of production lines in Hubei, and other building materials have different trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber oscillates with limited short - term drivers, and synthetic rubber is expected to face pressure above [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different products such as soybean meal, corn, and palm oil have different supply - demand situations and trading strategies [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: Pigs have supply pressure, and eggs have a slow de - capacity process [2]. - **Cash Crops**: Products like cotton, sugar, and apples have different market trends and trading suggestions [2].