2026 年 3 月 2 日 | H70529@capital.com.tw | | | --- | --- | | 何利超 目标价(元) | 28 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | | 传媒 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2026/2/27) | | | 21.59 | | 深证成指(2026/2/27) | | | 14495.09 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 23.68/10.04 | | | 总发行股数(百万) | | | 1939.97 | | A 股数(百万) | | | 1827.73 | | A 市值(亿元) | | | 394.61 | | 主要股东 | | 完美世界控股 | | | | | 集团有限公司 | | | | | | (22.32%) | | 每股净值(元) | | | 3.65 | | | 一个月 三个月 | | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 21.6 52.4 | | 94.7 | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-02-02 | 18.44 | ...

Core Insights - Several leading A-share gaming companies have released performance forecasts, with some expecting net profit growth due to overseas business expansion, long-term operation of classic products, and cost reduction measures, while others face declines in existing game revenue or post-acquisition challenges leading to goodwill impairment and losses [1] Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - Perfect World expects a net profit of 720 million to 760 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - Century Huatong's net profit is projected to increase by 357% to 475%, with estimated revenue of approximately 38 billion yuan, a 68% year-on-year growth [3] - G-bits anticipates a net profit of 1.69 billion to 1.86 billion yuan, representing a 79% to 97% increase compared to the previous year [4] Group 2: Key Products and Market Position - Century Huatong's success is attributed to two major global hits, "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot," which have positioned the company among the top in the global mobile gaming market [2][3] - Perfect World's upcoming game releases, including "Zhu Xian World" and "Persona: Night Shadow," are expected to contribute significantly to its 2025 performance [5] Group 3: Challenges Faced by Companies - Electric Soul Network is projected to incur its first annual loss since going public, with expected losses of 160 million to 230 million yuan due to declining revenue from acquired subsidiaries and goodwill impairment [6] - Toma Cat's losses are expected to widen to 1.1 billion to 1.4 billion yuan, attributed to intensified competition and underperformance of new game products [7] Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The gaming industry is experiencing a surge in new game releases, with several titles achieving significant user engagement and revenue shortly after launch [8] - The issuance of game licenses has increased significantly, with 177 domestic and 5 imported licenses issued in January 2026, indicating a positive trend for the industry [9] - The industry is expected to enter a "golden decade" starting in 2025, driven by a focus on high-quality game production and technological advancements [10]

Core Viewpoint - Perfect World (002624.SZ) is expected to turn a profit in 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 720 million to 760 million yuan, and a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses estimated between 560 million to 600 million yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant turnaround in profitability for the fiscal year 2025, moving from a loss to a profit [1] - The projected net profit range indicates a strong recovery, with figures suggesting a positive financial outlook for the company [1] Group 2: Game Releases and Revenue Drivers - The launch of the online game "Zhu Xian World" in December 2024, along with the public beta of "Zhu Xian 2" in August 2025, is expected to contribute positively to revenue [1] - The game "Persona: Midnight Mirage" is set to enter the Japanese and European markets between late June and early July 2025, which is anticipated to further enhance performance [1] Group 3: E-sports Business Growth - The company's e-sports business continues to show growth, driven by a multi-dimensional event system that enhances product operations [1] - Revenue from the e-sports segment has increased compared to the previous year, providing stable contributions to overall performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent share reduction by the actual controller of Perfect World, Chi Yufeng, has raised concerns in the capital market, especially given the company's previous poor performance and the recent stabilization of its financials. Chi Yufeng's reduction has resulted in a cash-out of nearly 500 million yuan [2][3]. Shareholder Actions - Chi Yufeng plans to reduce his holdings by up to 32,979,500 shares, accounting for 1.7% of the total share capital, citing "personal funding needs" as the reason. As of the announcement date, he holds 14,912,240 shares, representing 7.69% of the total [3][4]. - Since June 2019, Chi Yufeng has cumulatively reduced his holdings by 76,929,900 shares, cashing out approximately 2.5 billion yuan. Including the current planned reduction, the total cash-out will exceed 3 billion yuan [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Perfect World reported a revenue of 5.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.5%, and a net loss of 1.29 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 491 million yuan in 2023. The company has shut down several projects due to poor expected returns and has significantly reduced its workforce from over 5,700 to under 4,000 [5]. - However, in the first three quarters of this year, the company achieved a revenue of 5.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and a net profit of 666 million yuan, marking a return to profitability. The gaming segment generated 4.48 billion yuan in revenue, up 15.64% year-on-year [5][6]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the share reduction, Perfect World's stock price fell over 7% on November 28, closing at 17.17 yuan per share, a decline of 6.59%. The stock price rebounded slightly to 14.56 yuan on December 1, with a 2.75% increase, although large orders showed a net outflow [7]. Industry Context - Several A-share gaming companies have also announced share reductions recently, indicating a trend among major shareholders to cash out amid a rising market. Analysts suggest that this is a cyclical issue, as many gaming companies face challenges with older game products declining and new releases lacking strength [8][10]. - Perfect World is currently working on several projects, including the highly anticipated game "Yihuan," which is facing significant competition in the market. The success of "Yihuan" remains uncertain, especially given the high failure rate of domestic two-dimensional games [11].

Core Insights - The overall performance of A-share gaming companies in Q3 showed a mix of growth and decline, with 9 companies reporting both revenue and net profit growth, led by Century Huatong, which achieved over 10 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time [1][2] Company Performance - Century Huatong reported Q3 revenue of 100.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60.2%, and a net profit of 17 billion, up 163.8% [2] - 37 Interactive Entertainment achieved revenue of 124.61 billion in the first three quarters, with a net profit of 23.45 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.57% [4] - Giant Network's Q3 revenue reached 17.06 billion, a significant increase of 115.63%, with a net profit of 6.40 billion, up 81.19% [5] - Perfect World turned a profit in Q3 with revenue of 17.26 billion, a 31.45% increase, and a net profit of 1.62 billion, up 176.59% [6] - Shenzhou Taiyue reported a decline in revenue to 13.8 billion, down 5.3%, and a net profit drop of 53.6% to 2.15 billion [7] Game Titles and Strategies - Century Huatong's growth was driven by hit games like "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot," with the former achieving over 200 million downloads and topping revenue charts [3] - 37 Interactive Entertainment focused on long-term operations and scientific marketing strategies, launching successful titles like "Time Bomb" and "Douluo Dalu: Soul World" [4] - Giant Network's revenue growth was attributed to increased game income, indicating effective product line management [5] AI Integration - Many A-share gaming companies are emphasizing AI development, with Century Huatong hosting an AI competition and integrating AI tools into their operations [8] - 37 Interactive Entertainment is building an AI platform with over 40 capabilities to enhance various business functions [8][9] - Giant Network is also expanding its AI initiatives, collaborating with Tsinghua University on a multi-dialect speech synthesis model [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the overall pressure in the gaming industry, companies like Century Huatong, Perfect World, and Youzu Network have reported significant revenue and profit growth in Q3 2025, showcasing unique reasons for their performance [1]. Group 1: Century Huatong - Century Huatong achieved a quarterly revenue of 10.02 billion yuan, marking a 60.2% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 1.7 billion yuan, up 163.8% [2]. - The company’s total revenue for the first three quarters reached 27.22 billion yuan, surpassing the total revenue of the previous year [2]. - The growth is primarily driven by two successful overseas games: "Whiteout Survival," which has generated over 3.5 billion USD (approximately 24.9 billion yuan) in global revenue, and "Kingshot," which has earned over 400 million USD (approximately 2.8 billion yuan) since its launch [3]. Group 2: Perfect World - Perfect World reported Q3 revenue of 1.73 billion yuan, a 31.5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 160 million yuan, up 176.6% [4]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters reached 5.42 billion yuan, close to last year's total, reflecting a 33% year-on-year growth [4]. - The revenue increase is attributed to the launch of new games and a recovery from previous losses, with significant contributions from titles like "Zhu Xian World" and "Persona 5: Phantom X" [4]. Group 3: Youzu Network - Youzu Network reported Q3 revenue of 330 million yuan, a 12% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of approximately 26.2 million yuan, a staggering 4467% increase from the previous year [5]. - The company is recovering from a previous loss of about 390 million yuan in 2024, indicating a significant turnaround [5]. Group 4: Industry Overview - The overall gaming market in China saw a decline, with Q3 sales revenue at approximately 88 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year, and overseas sales revenue for self-developed games dropping over 3% [5]. - The growth of the three companies occurs against the backdrop of an industry downturn, highlighting their unique strategies and recovery paths [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share gaming sector has shown resilience with multiple stocks experiencing significant gains, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Giant Network (002558.SZ) saw a rise of over 9%, while Shenzhou Taiyue (300002.SZ) and G-bits (603444.SH) increased by over 4% [1]. - As of September 3, the Wind gaming concept index has recorded a year-to-date increase of 37.96%, with four companies, including ST Huatuo and Giant Network, seeing their stock prices double [3][10]. - ST Huatuo led the revenue rankings among 35 listed companies with 17.207 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85.5% [4][6]. Group 2: Company Financials - In the first half of 2025, ST Huatuo, Sanqi Interactive Entertainment, and Kunlun Wanwei reported the highest revenues, with ST Huatuo's net profit reaching 2.656 billion yuan [4][6]. - 20 out of 35 listed companies reported an increase in net profit, with nine companies achieving over 100% growth [7]. - Notable performers include Tuowei Information and Sheng Tian Network, with net profit growth rates of 2262.83% and 1186.02%, respectively [7]. Group 3: Product Performance and Strategy - ST Huatuo's success is attributed to its popular games like "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot," which have performed well in both domestic and international markets [4][5]. - Sanqi Interactive Entertainment has focused on a diversified strategy, launching multiple successful games, including "Time Explosion" and "Heroes Have No Flash," which have achieved high rankings in app stores [5][6]. - Kunlun Wanwei has emphasized AI technology, with significant growth in overseas revenue, which accounted for 92.17% of its total revenue [6][11]. Group 4: Market Trends - The gaming sector's growth is partly driven by the broader market trends and the integration of AI technologies within gaming [11][12]. - The overall positive sentiment in the gaming sector is reflected in the substantial stock price increases following the release of quarterly financial reports [10][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 18.34 [1][5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.691 billion for H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 33.74%, and a net profit of RMB 503 million, up 384.52% year-over-year [1][2] - The gaming business turned profitable in H1 2025, with revenue of RMB 2.906 billion, a 9.67% increase year-over-year, primarily driven by the launch of "Zhu Xian World" and growth in esports revenue [2][4] - The film and television segment saw significant growth, with revenue reaching RMB 767 million, a staggering 756.35% increase year-over-year, attributed to multiple successful releases [2][4] Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 56.68% in H1 2025, a decrease of 8.19 percentage points year-over-year, mainly due to the higher proportion of lower-margin film and television business [4] - The company’s operating expenses decreased, with a sales expense ratio of 8.9%, down 9.4 percentage points year-over-year, and a management expense ratio of 9.1%, down 7.8 percentage points year-over-year [4] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about its self-developed games, with new products expected to enhance performance and profitability [1][2] - The upcoming game "Yihuan" is anticipated to perform well, with significant user engagement during testing phases [3][5] - The company is investing in AI tools to enhance research and development efficiency, which is expected to further improve performance in the future [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Government has introduced measures to promote the high-quality development of the software and information services industry, particularly focusing on attracting foreign game companies to establish R&D teams in Shanghai by treating their products as domestic games for licensing purposes [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The measures aim to invigorate the operational vitality of software and information service enterprises, support AI-driven upgrades, cultivate new growth drivers, and reduce costs for companies in the sector [1]. - A notable aspect is the pilot policy allowing foreign game companies' products developed in Shanghai to be treated as domestic games, which is expected to enhance their chances of obtaining game licenses [1][6]. Group 2: Market Context - Shanghai is a preferred entry point for foreign game companies due to its status as a highland of openness in China, with many well-known firms like Ubisoft and Blizzard establishing their Chinese headquarters there [3]. - Despite having many foreign company headquarters, Shanghai has struggled to attract direct game development due to operational qualifications and licensing restrictions, limiting its industry scale [3][4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition among cities for the game industry is intense, and Shanghai's ability to convert foreign company headquarters into substantial investments and a robust industry ecosystem is crucial [3][4]. - Local game companies in Shanghai, while established, lack the scale and experience compared to giants like Tencent and NetEase, making it essential for Shanghai to offer more attractive pathways for foreign collaboration [4]. Group 4: Licensing and Regulatory Challenges - The likelihood of foreign game companies obtaining domestic game licenses is significantly higher, with 1,306 domestic game licenses issued in 2024 compared to only 110 for imported games [6]. - However, obtaining a license still requires compliance with additional regulations, such as APP filing and possessing an ICP license, which presents further challenges for foreign companies [7]. Group 5: Future Implications - The pilot policy is seen as timely, as many foreign companies are looking to cut costs and may find it advantageous to establish R&D teams in Shanghai, leveraging local talent and reducing communication barriers [5]. - The actual impact of these measures on foreign game companies will depend on subsequent policies and their integration with existing regulatory frameworks [7].

Group 1 - The issuance of domestic game licenses has shown a continuous upward trend, with a total of 757 domestic and 55 imported licenses granted in the first half of the year, exceeding 800 in total [1] - The stable supply of licenses is expected to help the industry transition from scale expansion to quality upgrading, encouraging companies to focus on high-quality game development through innovation and technology [1] - The recent policies from various provinces, such as Zhejiang and Beijing, aim to support the gaming industry’s high-quality development and international expansion, indicating a favorable regulatory environment [2] Group 2 - The overseas market is becoming a new growth engine for companies, with several firms reporting significant success in international markets, such as the launch of games that topped charts in Japan and other countries [3][4] - Companies are increasingly leveraging mature IPs and localized operations to enhance user engagement and overcome cultural barriers in international markets [4] - The normalization of license issuance is releasing supply vitality in the gaming industry, allowing numerous new games to enter the market and reshaping the competitive landscape [5] Group 3 - Companies are actively participating in major gaming events to promote their new titles, with several games set to launch in the upcoming months, indicating a robust pipeline of new products [5][6] - The integration of AI and other advanced technologies is transforming game development and gameplay, with significant improvements in efficiency and user experience [6] - The gaming market in China is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it could exceed 500 billion yuan by 2025 and reach 670 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 8% [6] Group 4 - Despite the growth in the gaming industry, challenges such as homogenized competition and high marketing costs persist, necessitating innovation and improved global strategies among companies [7] - The domestic gaming market is expected to grow steadily, with mobile games remaining dominant, while PC and console games may gain market share through high-quality offerings [7] - Companies with strong capabilities in quality development, global operations, and technological innovation are likely to gain a competitive advantage in the evolving industry landscape [7]