Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stability of the U.S. inflation rate in July, with a notable rebound in core inflation, indicating potential implications for monetary policy and market expectations regarding interest rate adjustments [1][6][22]. Inflation Data Summary - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with the previous value and slightly below market expectations of 2.8%. The core CPI rose by 3.1%, surpassing the previous value of 2.9% and the expected 3.0% [1][6][9]. - The core goods prices increased by 1.2% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of recovery. Various core goods categories, such as furniture (+0.7% month-on-month) and shoes (+1.4% month-on-month), showed price increases, reflecting the impact of tariffs [2][13][14]. - Core services saw a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, remaining stable compared to the previous month, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4%, higher than the previous 0.3% [4][18]. Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The article highlights that the impact of tariffs on inflation may have become more evident in July, although the overall inflation rebound has been moderate due to product differentiation. Future impacts remain uncertain, with varying estimates on how quickly tariffs affect consumer prices [3][14][15]. - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions on monetary policy direction are noted, with some members advocating for a cautious approach while others support a shift towards a neutral interest rate stance, indicating differing views on inflation risks and economic slowdown [5][20][21]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased, with the probability rising to 93.4% from 85.9%. This led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and a rise in major stock indices, reflecting a favorable environment for emerging market assets [5][22].

Inflation Overview - In June, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May and slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%[6] - The core CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, aligning with market expectations[6] Core CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI growth rose by 0.2 percentage points to 0.3%, matching market expectations, while the core CPI increased by 0.2%, slightly below the expected 0.3%[10] - Energy prices were the main driver of the inflation increase, with energy inflation rising by 1.9 percentage points to 1.0% month-on-month[13] Tariff Impact on Core Goods - The impact of tariffs on core goods is beginning to show, with notable month-on-month increases in clothing (0.9 percentage points) and furniture (0.6 percentage points) prices[14] - However, inflation in automobiles and pharmaceuticals showed weakness, with respective month-on-month declines of 0.5% and 0.3%[15] Core Services Performance - Core services, particularly medical and transportation services, showed strong inflation performance, with airfares increasing by 2.6 percentage points month-on-month[20] - The housing component saw a decline in growth, primarily due to a significant drop in hotel accommodation prices, which fell by 2.8 percentage points to -2.9%[20] Future Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue its moderate rise, with tariffs likely to exert further pressure on consumer prices in the coming months[24] - The average tariff rate on U.S. imports was approximately 8.7% in May, reflecting a 6.5 percentage point increase from the end of 2024[24] Federal Reserve Stance - Given the current economic conditions and the gradual transmission of tariff pressures, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach, making it difficult to lower interest rates in the short term[25]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in U.S. inflation data for June, highlighting a year-on-year CPI increase of 2.7%, up from 2.4% in the previous month, primarily driven by a rebound in energy prices. However, core CPI growth remains moderate, indicating a complex inflationary landscape influenced by tariffs and supply chain dynamics [1][7][16]. Inflation Data Analysis - June CPI year-on-year increased by 2.7%, with a month-on-month rise of 0.3%. Energy prices rose by 0.9%, with gasoline prices contributing significantly to this increase [8][9]. - Core CPI year-on-year rose to 2.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. The Cleveland Fed's Trimmed Mean CPI also showed a rise to 3.17% [9][10]. Core Goods and Services Pricing - Core goods prices rebounded with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, marking the second consecutive month of growth. Various core goods, such as furniture and appliances, showed significant price increases, while clothing and vehicle prices remained below trend lines [10][11]. - Core services prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month and remained stable at 3.6% year-on-year. The super core services category also saw a rise, indicating a rebound in medical and transportation service prices [14][15]. Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The article emphasizes that tariffs are beginning to show their impact on inflation, but the overall effect is moderate. The Federal Reserve is expected to take more time to assess these developments before making further decisions [16][17]. - The anticipated impact of tariffs on core CPI is projected to peak around 3.3% in the fourth quarter, with an estimated additional influence of about 80 basis points from tariffs [12][16]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, with market expectations indicating a likelihood of rate cuts in September. The Fed's decision-making is influenced by the need to confirm whether inflationary impacts are temporary and whether long-term inflation expectations remain anchored [16][19]. Currency and Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index has weakened by 9.1% since the end of last year, contributing to a rise in emerging market equities. The dollar's performance is seen as a significant variable affecting global financial markets in the second half of the year [20].

Group 1 - The retail sector in Melbourne is showing signs of recovery, with the average vacancy rate in major commercial streets decreasing from 11% to 8.6% over the past year [1][2] - South Yarra's Toorak Road has seen a significant drop in vacancy rate from 10% to 4.6%, while Brighton's Church Street boasts an exceptionally low vacancy rate of 1.7% [1][2] - The overall vacancy rate across Melbourne's commercial streets stands at 8.3% as of January 2025 [2] Group 2 - Cafés and restaurants remain the most active new entrants in the retail market, accounting for nearly one-third of all stores, indicating the resilience and ongoing appeal of the food and beverage sector [3] - Service-oriented businesses, including gyms, dental clinics, accounting firms, and beauty stores, have expanded to represent 21% of total stores, surpassing traditional apparel retail for the first time [3] Group 3 - Retail trade across all Australian states and territories has increased, with the Northern Territory experiencing the highest growth at 3.7%, followed by Western Australia at 3.3%, both exceeding the national growth rate of 2.2% [5] - The personal goods sector has shown the most significant growth at 5%, while food sales increased by 2.6%. In contrast, the home goods sector has declined due to a slowdown in the real estate market, reflecting current economic uncertainties [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's imposition of tariffs is impacting the daily lives of American citizens across various sectors, from skincare products to clothing and household items, leading to potential price increases and shortages of essential goods [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Daily Life - A recent analysis by The New York Times highlights the significant role of Chinese-manufactured products in American households, indicating that many daily items could face price hikes or shortages without these imports [3]. - An example is provided of a woman named Betty, whose daily life is heavily reliant on Chinese-made products, including kitchen utensils, beauty tools, and alarm clocks, with 82% of kitchen knives, 99% of toasters, and 71% of hair dryers imported from China [5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Professor Justin Wolfers from the University of Michigan warns that ongoing tariff policies will create an uncertain economic future for the U.S., affecting trade relations and the economic lives of Americans [7]. - The tariffs, which are significantly higher than those during the previous administration, will impact all goods from all countries, suggesting a comprehensive effect on consumer prices and availability [7]. Group 3: Current Tariff Situation - As of April 9, all goods shipped from China are subject to a 145% tariff, prompting many businesses to reconsider their purchasing strategies in light of these changes [9]. - President Trump, in a recent interview, expressed a lack of concern regarding a potential economic recession, suggesting that consumer needs may be overestimated [10][12].