事件：公司披露2025 半年报，25H1 实现营业收入239.64 亿元，同比+5.35%，实现归母净利润85.05 亿 元，同比+1.13%，实现扣非净利润85.16 亿元，同比+1.27%。其中25Q2 实现营业收入74.41 亿元，同比 +0.45%，实现归母净利润18.57 亿元，同比-13.50%，实现扣非净利润18.61 亿元，同比-13.40%。 盈利预测及投资建议：公司凭借研产供销一体化强化经营韧性，在经济弱复苏、行业承压的背景下展现 较强韧性，主业汾酒业绩稳中有进。我们预计25-27 年实现营收395.59/444.66/509.05 亿元，归母净利润 134.06/150.67/174.79 亿元，对应PE 分别为17.98/16.00/13.79x，维持强烈推荐评级。 青花汾酒稳中有进，展现强劲经营韧性。25H1 公司汾酒/其他酒类分别实现营收233.91/4.84 亿元，分别 同比+5.75%/-10.55%。其中Q2 公司汾酒/其他酒类分别实现营收71.79/2.16 亿元，分别同比 +0.56%/-3.54%。在行业整体承压的背景下，汾酒系列维持稳健。公司构建了清晰的价格带产品体系 ...

Summary of Shanxi Fenjiu Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shanxi Fenjiu - **Industry**: Baijiu (Chinese liquor) Key Points and Arguments Industry and Market Dynamics - The baijiu industry is currently experiencing a downturn, with the second quarter expected to be the worst period for the industry fundamentals [7] - Despite the downturn, Shanxi Fenjiu is positioned as a preferred investment target due to its strong brand momentum and significant valuation space [7][8] - The overall sales of baijiu are anticipated to improve as consumption restrictions ease and consumer sentiment improves, particularly during peak seasons like Mid-Autumn Festival and Spring Festival [7] Company Strategies and Adaptations - Shanxi Fenjiu has adopted various strategies to maintain competitiveness, including learning from industry models and optimizing its own practices, such as the "five-in-one" strategy and terminal construction [2][4] - The company has shifted from a production-focused model to a marketing-oriented approach since 2008, learning from peers like Wuliangye [6] - The introduction of mixed ownership reforms and employee stock ownership plans has facilitated market-oriented transformation, allowing the company to perform well during industry cycles [12][13] Historical Transformations - Key historical turning points include the adoption of the OEM model in 2008 and significant institutional reforms in 2017 that decentralized power and clarified reward and punishment mechanisms [2][6][10] - The company has undergone a significant transformation from a production-centric entity to one with a strong marketing focus, enhancing its product structure and channel management [6][21] Product and Regional Strategies - The company has three main capacity construction projects aimed at increasing raw liquor capacity to over 81,000 tons and finished product capacity to over 100,000 tons, enhancing overall production capabilities by over 50% [4][32] - Shanxi Fenjiu's national strategy involves consolidating its market in Shanxi province before expanding to surrounding regions and eventually to emerging markets in southern China [17][33] - The product strategy has evolved to include a range of offerings from low-end to high-end products, with a focus on upgrading product structure in core markets [18][31] Marketing and Promotion - The marketing efforts focus on the Qinghua series, Guotang series, and Laobai Fen series, with a shift from a large warehouse development model to a more flattened approach [9] - The company has implemented a "grab both ends and lead the middle" strategy in different regions to cater to varying consumer needs [27] Financial Outlook and Growth Potential - Despite current challenges, the company is expected to achieve a revenue target of 50 billion yuan by 2028, driven by product structure adjustments and market expansion [44][50] - The company maintains a positive outlook on future growth, anticipating recovery in the baijiu industry and potential for significant revenue increases as market conditions stabilize [49][54] Challenges and Responses - The baijiu industry faces challenges such as a slowdown in high-end product growth and price pressures from competitors [48] - Shanxi Fenjiu is addressing market fluctuations through measures like price stabilization and digital management to maintain profitability [53] Conclusion - Shanxi Fenjiu is well-positioned to navigate the current market challenges and capitalize on future growth opportunities, making it a compelling investment choice in the baijiu sector [55]