（作者｜周琦 编辑｜张广凯） 六年拉锯，1.11亿元落槌。 12月19日，新乳业发布公告，宣布完成对福州澳牛乳业相关资产的收购。 这一收购事件并非新乳业的首次区域并购。 据官网披露，新乳业拥有15个主要乳品品牌、16家乳制品加工厂、12个自有牧场。 新乳业集团官网 新乳业成立于2006年，原是新希望集团旗下乳业板块，2011年被新希望剥离，后在2019年于深交所上市。 刘永好和刘畅父女是新乳业的实际控制人，也是一致行动人。 目前，由刘畅全资控股的Universal Dairy Limited，持有新乳业65.07%股份；刘永好全资控股新希望投资集团有限公司，持有新乳业11.42%股份，父女两人合 计持股新乳业股份达到76.49%。 截止12月22日收盘，新乳业股价报18.88元/股，市值达162.5亿元。 六年收官 自2019年上市以来，新乳业通过"并购整合"战略，已先后将夏进乳业、杭州双峰等多个区域品牌纳入旗下，形成了以西南为中心，辐射全国多地的业务版 图。 本次公告，为历时六年的"福州澳牛"并购案画上句号。 企查查显示，新乳业最终支付的交易对价为1.11亿元，其中截至2025年11月已累计支付1.09亿元 ...

Core Insights - The company has significantly improved its overall capabilities through digital transformation, enhancing production efficiency, reducing operational costs, and ensuring stable product quality [1][3]. Digital Transformation - Since 2018, the company has been advancing its digital transformation by developing an "integrated big data management system" that connects data across upstream, midstream, and downstream platforms, creating a closed-loop data system from farming to end-user [3]. - In the farming segment, advanced digital management tools allow real-time recording of various data points related to dairy cows, enabling personalized nutrition plans to optimize both milk quantity and quality [3]. - The production process utilizes intelligent modules to automatically monitor critical parameters and alert for anomalies, ensuring stability and control during production [3]. - Sales strategies are enhanced through big data analysis of consumer preferences and market dynamics, allowing for precise demand forecasting and inventory management [3]. Industry Impact - The company has established a high-quality development model that integrates large-scale farming, digital production, and intelligent marketing, serving as a benchmark for digital transformation in the dairy industry [5]. - Currently, the company produces over 20,000 tons of fresh milk annually, with a diverse product range including pasteurized milk, yogurt, and dairy beverages, achieving strong sales both online and offline [5]. Employment and Economic Contribution - The company operates over 2,000 sales outlets, covering more than 80 counties in the province and creating employment for over 5,000 individuals [7]. - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a tax revenue of 130 million yuan [7]. Future Plans - The company aims to continue increasing technological investments and deepening its digital transformation to further enhance product quality and service, while expanding its market presence outside the province [7]. - Plans include developing more personalized dairy products to meet diverse consumer needs, contributing to the high-quality development of the dairy industry in Guizhou [7].

Core Viewpoint - The new national standard for sterilized milk in China mandates that only 100% fresh milk can be used as raw material, prohibiting the use of reconstituted milk, which is often referred to as "garbage milk" [1][2][6]. Industry Impact - The new regulation primarily affects sterilized milk, commonly known as "pure milk," and aims to clarify the distinction between pure milk and reconstituted milk, enhancing consumer awareness [2][8]. - The regulation is expected to have minimal impact on major dairy companies in Shandong, as most do not use reconstituted milk in their sterilized milk products [9][12]. - The price of fresh milk is currently at an eight-year low, and the new standard may not lead to significant price increases in the short term [9][12]. Consumer Guidance - Consumers are advised to check product labels for the presence of the word "pure," production dates, and ingredient lists to ensure they are purchasing genuine fresh milk [2][4]. - Different types of milk products serve various consumer needs, with pasteurized milk being fresher but requiring refrigeration, while reconstituted milk is seen as a more economical option [5][12]. Regulatory Background - The push for using 100% fresh milk in sterilized milk production has been ongoing since 2005, with previous reports indicating that over 60% of liquid milk labeled as "pure" contained reconstituted milk [8][9]. - The new standard is viewed as a means to protect local dairy farmers and ensure the quality of milk products in the market [6][12]. Future Considerations - The new regulation may lead to a restructuring of the dairy industry, prompting companies to enhance their supply chain capabilities and potentially increasing the demand for fresh milk [12][14]. - Shandong, as a major dairy province, faces challenges such as stabilizing fresh milk supply, managing transformation costs for smaller enterprises, and building brand recognition in the market [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - Knight Dairy's investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission highlights significant risks in risk management and compliance within the dairy industry, reflecting the broader challenges faced by the sector during cyclical downturns [1][8]. Company Summary - Knight Dairy reported a substantial increase in futures trading losses, escalating from 9.02 million yuan in January 2024 to 41.68 million yuan by December, which represented 41.12% of the company's net profit for 2023 [2]. - The company faced a net profit loss of 7.70 million yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year decline of 108.20%, the first loss recorded in nearly a decade [2]. - The management's failure to disclose these losses in a timely manner led to penalties, including a fine of 2 million yuan for the company and individual fines for key executives [2]. - Knight Dairy's risk management system was inadequate, lacking proper decision-making processes and risk supervision mechanisms, which transformed futures trading from a hedging tool into a significant financial burden [3]. Business Performance - Knight Dairy operates across four main sectors: forage planting, dairy farming, dairy product processing and sales, and sugar production, with a significant scale achieved in each area [4]. - The company has a modern dairy farming base with over 22,000 cows and a daily milk production capacity of approximately 350 tons [4]. - Despite revenue growth from 265 million yuan in 2015 to 1.297 billion yuan in 2024, the company struggled with profitability, facing challenges across all business segments in 2024 [4][5][6]. Industry Challenges - The domestic fresh milk price has been on a downward trend for three consecutive years, with a 13.42% year-on-year decline in 2024, posing challenges for Knight Dairy, which relies on fresh milk for 30% of its business [7]. - The downstream consumption market is also weakening, with declines in revenue for low-temperature yogurt and white sugar, indicating a lack of demand [7]. - Knight Dairy's vertical integration strategy aimed at cost reduction has increased risks during industry downturns, particularly in its sugar business, which is significantly affected by commodity price fluctuations [7][8]. - Compared to industry leaders like Yili and Mengniu, Knight Dairy lacks the scale and diversified product offerings necessary to mitigate risks effectively, making it more vulnerable during cyclical fluctuations [8].

Industry Overview - The dairy market is experiencing a contraction, with a projected 2.7% year-on-year decline in total sales for 2024 according to Nielsen IQ [1] - Dairy production companies are under significant pressure due to an oversupply of raw milk, leading to increased production of industrial milk powder and a surge in inventory [1] Company Performance - Yili's revenue for 2024 is reported at 115.393 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, with a net profit of 8.453 billion yuan, down 18.94% [2] - Mengniu's revenue stands at 88.6748 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.1% decline, while its net profit plummeted by 97.8% to 10.45 million yuan [2] - Bright Dairy reported revenue of 24.278 billion yuan, down 8.33%, with a net profit decrease of 25.36% to 722 million yuan [2] Strategic Shifts - The B2B segment, particularly in partnerships with restaurants and cafes, is becoming increasingly important for dairy companies as they seek to mitigate losses [2] - Yili has formed partnerships with major restaurant chains like Haidilao and Hushang Ayi, while Mengniu has established strategic collaborations with Yum China and Daka International [2] Pricing Dynamics - The competitive landscape has led to significantly lower transaction prices for milk powder, with major tea beverage companies leveraging this to negotiate favorable terms [3] - The decline in milk prices has helped stabilize costs for coffee companies, allowing them to maintain product pricing and profitability [4] Market Impact - The low prices in the dairy sector are seen as a potential pathway for companies to reduce losses by capturing restaurant business [5] - The pricing war in the restaurant market has eased due to the lower dairy prices, providing some relief to the sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent release of 50 national food safety standards and 9 amendments by the National Health Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation introduces new standards for "expiration date" and "consumption storage period," impacting consumer behavior and food safety awareness [1][6]. Group 1: Understanding Expiration Dates - Expiration dates serve to inform both sellers and consumers about potential quality degradation and safety risks after the specified period [3]. - Most pre-packaged foods are required to display expiration dates, which are determined by manufacturers based on quality testing and industry practices [3]. Group 2: New Standards and Changes - The new standards include the adjustment of the term "expiration date" to "expiration date" for clearer consumer understanding [6]. - The format for marking expiration dates has been standardized to a clear year-month-day sequence, enhancing information visibility [7]. - The new standards encourage the indication of a "consumption storage period," allowing consumers to safely consume products beyond the expiration date if stored correctly [7]. Group 3: Common Misconceptions about Expiration Dates - Not all foods require an expiration date; some items like alcohol, salt, and sugar can be stored indefinitely due to their natural preservative properties [8][10]. - The length of an expiration date does not necessarily correlate with the amount of preservatives; it is influenced by the food's characteristics and storage conditions [10]. - Many manufacturers set expiration dates with a safety margin, meaning that products may still be safe to consume after the date if there are no signs of spoilage [13]. - Safety is not guaranteed simply by being within the expiration date; proper storage conditions must also be observed to prevent premature spoilage [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for pasteurized milk in China is declining due to macroeconomic slowdown and consumer confidence issues, with projected consumption dropping to 1.7818 million tons and market size to 35.889 billion yuan in 2024 [1][8]. Overview - Pasteurized milk, also known as pasteurized milk or fresh milk, is produced from raw cow (or sheep) milk through pasteurization, retaining its nutritional value and natural flavor, making it popular among consumers [2]. - It requires refrigeration at around 4°C and has a short shelf life of 2-7 days. It can be categorized into whole, low-fat, and skimmed pasteurized milk based on fat content, and pure or flavored based on added ingredients [2]. Industry Policies - A series of policies have been implemented to support the dairy industry in China, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" for enhancing dairy competitiveness and various initiatives aimed at rural revitalization and high-quality development of the dairy sector [4][5]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the pasteurized milk industry includes milk sources (dairy cattle and sheep farming), production equipment, and packaging materials, while the downstream encompasses sales channels such as supermarkets, convenience stores, and e-commerce platforms [6][7]. Competitive Landscape - The market concentration of the pasteurized milk industry in China has increased, with leading companies like Bright Dairy, Mengniu Dairy, and New Hope Dairy holding over 70% of the market share. Bright Dairy has the largest share at 18.5%, followed by Mengniu Dairy at 12.6% [10]. - Bright Dairy's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 12.71 billion yuan, with liquid milk accounting for 61.16% of sales [12]. - Mengniu Dairy reported a revenue of 44.67 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, with a gross profit of 17.98 billion yuan and a gross margin of 40.26% [14]. Development Trends - The competition in the pasteurized milk market is expected to intensify, leading companies to focus on product differentiation. Brands will likely introduce unique products such as functional and organic pasteurized milk, along with innovative forms and flavors to cater to younger consumers [16].