新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-23 下游节前持续补库 铅价高位震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-09-22，LME铅现货升水为-43.72美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至17000元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 17025元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至17025元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至17025元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-75元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至9975 元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10350元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-22，沪铅主力合约开于17150元/吨，收于17125元/吨，较前一交易日变化-25元/吨，全天交易日 成交24370手，较前一交易日变化-11605手，全天交易日持仓27432手，手较前一交易日变化-5311手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17170元/吨，最低点达到17075元/吨。夜盘方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] 2. Report's Core View - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side is affected by the continuous decline in TC prices and an increase in smelter maintenance. On the demand side, dealers' inventory reduction is slow, and their procurement willingness is low, with some enterprises accumulating finished - product inventory. With the upcoming implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles in September and the Middle East tariff policy, the impact on consumption is uncertain. Therefore, the lead price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with the volatility range likely between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On December 19, 2024, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.73/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -50 yuan/ton to 50.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price changed by -75 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by -50 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries changed by -50 yuan/ton to 9,525 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries changed by -50 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On December 19, 2024, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,795 yuan/ton, closed at 16,730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 28,827 lots, a decrease of 11,102 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 43,709 lots, a decrease of 3,629 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,810 yuan/ton and a low of 16,660 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,865 yuan/ton and closed at 16,860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In the Henan region, holders quoted at par with the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 140 - 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. In the Hunan region, most lead smelters quoted at a discount of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, and some holders quoted at a discount of 160 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. In the Yunnan region, holders quoted at a discount of over 200 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. Although the lead futures price strengthened slightly, downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand, and the overall trading in the spot market was weak [2] Inventory - On December 19, 2024, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 3, the LME lead inventory was 234,700 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Dragon Boat Festival, both supply and demand have slightly increased. Coupled with the overall price increase in the non - ferrous metals sector, the lead price has also rebounded. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,200 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 16, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$25.93/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead prices in different regions also had corresponding changes, and the lead scrap spread remained unchanged [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,915 yuan/ton, closed at 16,980 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 30,240 lots, down 2,474 lots, and the position was 42,057 lots, down 1,547 lots. The night - session price rose 0.35% compared with the afternoon closing [1] Supply and Demand and Inventory - The downstream maintained rigid - demand procurement. Due to the discounted recycled lead in some regions, the rigid - demand was diverted, and the trading was relatively light. On June 16, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from last week. As of June 16, the LME lead inventory was 263,475 tons, a decrease of 3,775 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Price Strategy**: Maintain a neutral view, and expect the lead price to fluctuate between 16,200 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] - **Option Strategy**: Sell a wide - straddle [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead has shown a slight increase, but it is expected to lack sustained performance. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, with weak downstream demand. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 27, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$17.65/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, 9,900 yuan/ton, and 10,250 yuan/ton respectively [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders offered discounts of 25 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or 150 - 140 yuan/ton to SHFE lead contracts 2506/2507 for ex - factory sales. In Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales, and holders offered discounts of 40 - 30 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, holders offered premiums of 50 - 75 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead [2] Futures Market - On May 27, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,760 yuan/ton and closed at 16,825 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,820 lots, an increase of 33 lots, and the open interest was 46,064 lots, an increase of 1,732 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,850 yuan/ton and a low of 16,745 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,790 yuan/ton and closed at 16,765 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1] Inventory - On May 27, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 43,000 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 292,375 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is to be cautiously bearish. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Option Strategy - The option strategy is to sell call options [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-16 下游采购以刚需为主 铅价维持震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-05-15，LME铅现货升水为-6.64美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16800元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨 至16825元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16800元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化50元/吨至16850元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至10300元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10200元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10550元/吨。 期货方面：2025-05-15，沪铅主力合约开于16990元/吨，收于16975元/吨，较前一交易日变化40元/吨，全天交易日 成交24392手，较前一交易日变化-8198手，全天交易日持仓29283手，手较前一交易日变化-1442手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17050元/吨，最低点达到16950元/吨。 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: On hold [3] 2) Core View of the Report - In the off - season of consumption, the supply and demand of lead may show a pattern of both weakness. Macro uncertainties will also continuously interfere with the trend of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging operations around 17,200 yuan/ton [3] 3) Summary by Related Content Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On May 8, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 16.08 dollars/ton. SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of different regions changed to varying degrees. The lead scrap price differential remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste batteries also had different changes [1] - **Futures Market**: On May 8, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,720 yuan/ton, closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 39,686 lots, a decrease of 5,276 lots, and the position was 34,382 lots, a decrease of 2,547 lots. The night - session closed flat with the afternoon session [1] Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Supply and Demand**: The inventory pressure of smelting enterprises in Henan increased, and the price difference between different regions' smelting enterprises and traders widened. Downstream enterprises mainly digested finished product inventories, with poor procurement enthusiasm and light trading in the spot market [2] - **Inventory**: On May 8, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 48,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from last week. As of May 8, the LME lead inventory was 255,150 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish, suggesting sell - hedging operations around 17,200 yuan/ton [3] - **Arbitrage**: On hold [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-04-29 市场节前备货积极性相对较差 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-04-28，LME铅现货升水为-17.91美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-100元/吨至16775 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -100元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-75 元/吨至16850元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至16750元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-100元/吨至16800元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变 化-100元/吨至10300元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-100元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-100元/吨 至10475元/吨。 期货方面：2025-04-28，沪铅主力合约开于16940元/吨，收于17005元/吨，较前一交易日变化60元/吨，全天交易日 成交40549手，较前一交易日变化2570手，全天交易日持仓38819手，手较前一交易日变化86手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17010元/吨，最低 ...