Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - Inflation showed a month-on-month increase, with China's CPI rising by 0.2% in January, and a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year [2][6] - The PPI also rose by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Year-on-year, PPI decreased by 1.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2][6] - In the U.S., January's non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, with an hourly wage increase of 0.4% month-on-month [2][6] Group 2: Market Performance - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% to close at 4131.98 points, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.08%. Sector performance was mixed, with construction materials, non-ferrous metals, and oil and petrochemicals leading gains, while communication, media, and social services sectors saw the largest declines [3][7] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets remained low, with total transactions below 2 trillion yuan [3][7] - In the futures market, the basis for IC and IM contracts increased, with both trading volume and open interest for IH and IM contracts rising [3][7] Group 3: Sector Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector showed signs of recovery, with previous strategies indicating that stabilization in this sector could drive further increases in the CSI 500 Index. Continuous monitoring of this trend is advised [4][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, tin prices rebounded significantly due to the recovery of risk appetite in commodities, the upward resonance of the non - ferrous sector, the weak supply of refined tin caused by the reduction of scrap in Jiangxi, and the replenishment of raw material inventory by downstream tin enterprises. The tin market supply and demand maintained a tight balance, and it is expected that tin prices will likely fluctuate at a high level in the short term [11][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In November 2025, the import of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 15,099 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. The imports from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo showed different trends [12]. - Supply side: The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained high at 87.09% this week, with limited room for further improvement due to tight raw material supply. Jiangxi was affected by the shortage of scrap supply, with tight crude tin supply and low refined tin output [11][12]. - Demand side: Although the demand for consumer electronics entered the traditional off - season at the end of the year, the operating rate of tin solder enterprises remained stable supported by orders from emerging fields. Downstream enterprises adopted a low - inventory strategy, and spot procurement was mainly for rigid demand [11][12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - No relevant content for summary other than the presentation of graphs about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium (0 - 3). 3.3. Cost Side - The presentation of graphs about China's monthly tin ore production, tin ore imports, tin concentrate prices, and tin concentrate processing fees, but no specific data analysis and summary content provided. 3.4. Supply Side - The presentation of graphs about domestic refined tin monthly production, domestic recycled tin monthly production, tin production and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin imports, and Indonesia's refined tin imports and exports, without specific data analysis and summary content. 3.5. Demand Side - China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. Graphs about the output of various downstream products such as computers, smartphones, home appliances, photovoltaic products, etc., and the operating rate of downstream solder enterprises and domestic tin apparent consumption were presented, but no specific data analysis and summary content provided [44]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - The presentation of graphs about China's social inventory and LME inventory, without specific data analysis and summary content.

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals rose, but some are expected to fall after delivery [4] - The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the downstream restocking period before the Spring Festival is still early [4] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On December 19, 2024, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.73/ton [1] - The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] - SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -50 yuan/ton to 50.00 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong lead spot price was unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton; SMM Henan lead spot price changed by -75 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton; SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton [1] - The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells all decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, 9,525 yuan/ton, and 9,975 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On December 19, 2024, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,795 yuan/ton, closed at 16,730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - The trading volume was 28,827 lots, a decrease of 11,102 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 43,709 lots, a decrease of 3,629 lots from the previous day [2] - During the day, the price fluctuated, with a high of 16,810 yuan/ton and a low of 16,660 yuan/ton [2] - In the night session, the main contract opened at 16,800 yuan/ton, closed at 16,795 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On December 19, 2024, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the same period last week [3] - As of December 18, the LME lead inventory was 234,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day [3] Strategy - Current operations should focus on selling hedges at high prices, with the selling range between 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton [4]

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market showed a rebound after an initial decline, with the ChiNext index dropping 0.5% before rising over 1% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.04 trillion yuan, a decrease of 55.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Nearly 3,500 stocks in the market experienced declines [1] Group 2: Sector Highlights - The MoE Thread concept stocks continued to perform strongly, with companies like Chuangling Information and Lianmei Holdings hitting the daily limit [1] - The humanoid robot sector saw multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, with Ruineng Technology achieving five consecutive trading limits [1] - Analysts from Kaiyuan Securities indicated that the humanoid robot sector is nearing the end of its adjustment phase, with a more rational industry outlook and strong catalysts expected in the future [1] Group 3: Copper and Precious Metals - The copper price surge positively impacted the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Cangge Mining reaching historical highs [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price continuously hit new historical highs, with the main contract for copper futures in Shanghai reaching 91,240 yuan per ton [2] Group 4: Bond Market Trends - The bond market saw a decline across the board, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 1.14% and the 10-year contract down by 0.36% [4] - The yield on the 30-year government bond rose by 3.4 basis points to 2.27%, marking a new high for the period [6] - Market weakness is attributed to year-end liquidity expectations and concerns regarding corporate profit growth [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For tin, considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to macro - level changes and supply - side recovery [2]. - For industrial silicon, expect prices to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. The market will maintain weak supply and demand in December [4]. - For polysilicon, the market is expected to be oversupplied in December with inventory accumulation expected in each link. Futures should be put on hold for now, and out - of - the - money put options can be bought on the options side when volatility is low [5]. - For zinc, the short - term price has limited downside space, but the fundamentals also provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. Prices are likely to oscillate. Pay attention to the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventory [7]. - For copper, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts [8]. - For nickel, the overall driving force is still limited. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Pay attention to macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [11]. - For stainless steel, the short - term low - valuation situation may lead to some price recovery, but the driving force is limited. Prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating. Pay attention to steel mills' production cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [14]. - For aluminum, alumina prices are expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term price has support, but the unilateral driving force is weakened. The market is expected to oscillate widely around 95,000 yuan [16]. - For aluminum alloy, the short - term price trend of the casting aluminum alloy market is still strong. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the sustainability of inventory reduction [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 2.73% to 308,200 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. Import loss widened by 15.76% to - 19,428.35 yuan/ton. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, refined tin imports decreased by 58.55%, and exports decreased by 15.33%. SHEF and social inventories increased slightly [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of industrial silicon stabilized, and the futures price fluctuated. The basis of the main contract decreased. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% in November, and the national operating rate increased by 9.98%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, while polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. Social inventory increased slightly [4]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of polysilicon stabilized, and the futures price rose. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon production decreased, imports increased by 11.96%, and exports decreased by 27.99%. Inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.85% to 22,560 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased. Import loss decreased, and some monthly spreads changed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%. In October, imports decreased by 16.94% and exports increased by 243.79%. LME inventory increased, and domestic social inventory decreased [7]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 2.15%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 18.01%, and the import loss widened [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%. In October, imports decreased by 15.61%. Domestic social inventory decreased, and some operating rates decreased [8]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased slightly, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 1.05%. The futures import loss widened by 17.58% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84% in November, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of stainless steel remained stable, and the basis decreased. Some monthly spreads changed slightly [14]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% in November, imports increased by 3.18%, and exports decreased by 14.43%. Social inventory increased slightly [14]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.31%, and the premium decreased. Alumina prices in some regions decreased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%. Some operating rates increased, and domestic social inventory decreased [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.64%, and some monthly spreads decreased [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, demand increased by 5.11%, and total inventory decreased by 23.36% [16]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.70%, and some scrap - refined price differences changed [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%. Some operating rates decreased, and social inventory decreased slightly [18].

Market Performance - Since July 2025, major indices have risen significantly, with the ChiNext 50, ChiNext Index, and Sci-Tech 50 increasing by over 45%[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 have risen by 15.79%, 19.20%, 24.10%, 17.67%, and 14.89% respectively[1] Fund Establishment and Holdings - A total of 90 equity-oriented active funds were established in Q3 2025, with a total share of 554.04 billion[2] - The average stock position of various types of equity-oriented active funds increased compared to Q2 2025[3] Industry Distribution - The industries with increased holdings of over 100 billion include electronics, communication, power equipment and new energy, computer, non-ferrous metals, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and media[4] - The electronics sector saw a holding increase of 5.17%, while communication increased by 3.95%[4] Individual Stock Distribution - The top five stocks with the largest increase in holdings are Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Industrial Fulian, CATL, and Cambricon[5] - The largest holdings in A-shares are CATL, Xinyi Sheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, Luxshare Precision, and Industrial Fulian[5] Large Fund Holdings Analysis - As of October 28, 2025, there are 34 equity-oriented active funds with holdings exceeding 100 billion, an increase of 10 from the previous quarter[6] - The stocks with the most significant changes in holdings among large funds include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Luxshare Precision, CATL, and Industrial Fulian[6] Hong Kong Stock Holdings - The top six Hong Kong stocks held by funds in Q3 2025 include Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, SMIC, Innovent Biologics, Pop Mart, and Xiaomi Group-W, each with a market value exceeding 10 billion[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of alumina futures stopped falling and fluctuated due to the easing of Sino - US relations and the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. The spot price continued to decline under the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation. Although the alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term, the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy and the approaching of the current price to most manufacturers' cost - lines may lead to an increase in production cut expectations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures price**: As of 3 p.m. on October 24, the alumina index rose 0.43% to 2821 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 36,000 lots to 494,000 lots. The basis: the spot price in Shandong was 2800 yuan/ton, with a premium of 1 yuan/ton over the 11 - contract. The spread between the first and third contracts was - 42 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spot price**: This week, the spot prices of alumina in various regions continued to decline. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 35 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [11][21]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 51,000 tons to 4.69 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 53,000 tons, 10,000 tons, decreased by 28,000 tons, and increased by 16,000 tons respectively. The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE totaled 221,300 tons, unchanged from last week; the delivery warehouse inventory was 239,600 tons, also unchanged from last week [11][68][71]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot price**: The spot prices of alumina in various regions continued to decline due to continuous inventory accumulation [21]. - **Futures price and basis**: The alumina futures price stopped falling and fluctuated. The basis in Shandong was a premium of 1 yuan/ton over the 11 - contract, and the spread between the first and third contracts was - 42 yuan/ton [24]. - **Bauxite price**: The bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. The CIF price of Guinea decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 72.5 dollars/ton, and that of Australia remained at 69 dollars/ton. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment increased, and the alumina enterprises' willingness to lower prices increased. With high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline [27]. 3.3. Supply - side - **Bauxite production**: In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 45.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.28% [31]. - **Bauxite import**: In September 2025, China imported 15.88 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 37.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.77%. The cumulative import in the first nine months was 157.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.97% [33]. - **Bauxite inventory**: In September, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 1.04 million tons to 52.27 million tons, still at a high level in the past five years. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi decreased by 230,000 tons, and that in Henan decreased by 80,000 tons [40]. - **Alumina production**: In September 2025, China's alumina production was 7.746 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 66.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.82%. As of October 24, the weekly production was 1.862 million tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week [42][43]. - **Alumina plant profit**: The alumina plant profit was under pressure due to the decline in the spot price. On October 24, the production profit in Guangxi was 275 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the profit using Australian ore and Guinea ore was - 15 yuan/ton and 65 yuan/ton respectively. Inland alumina plants using overseas ore in Shanxi and Henan had turned slightly into losses [46]. - **Alumina import and export**: In September 2025, the net export of alumina was 186,400 tons, maintaining a net export situation. The import volume decreased from 94,000 tons last month to 60,000 tons, and the export volume increased from 180,500 tons to 246,400 tons. The cumulative net export in the first nine months was 1.4512 million tons. As of October 24, the FOB price in Australia decreased by 6 dollars/ton to 314 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 21 yuan/ton [48][50]. - **Overseas alumina production**: In September 2025, the overseas alumina production was 5.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 46.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.06% [52]. 3.4. Demand - side - **Electrolytic aluminum production**: In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [57]. - **Electrolytic aluminum operation**: In September 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from last month. The operating rate increased by 0.35 percentage points to 97.47% [60]. 3.5. Supply - demand Balance The alumina supply - demand balance table shows the supply and demand situation from January to December 2025, including the supply - demand difference, total demand, total supply, net export, export volume, import volume, demand for electrolytic aluminum, electrolytic aluminum production, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity, alumina production, and alumina operating capacity [63]. 3.6. Inventory - **Social inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 51,000 tons to 4.69 million tons this week, with different changes in various types of inventory [68]. - **SHFE inventory**: The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE totaled 221,300 tons, unchanged from last week; the delivery warehouse inventory was 239,600 tons, also unchanged from last week [71].

Group 1: Market Overview - Major stock indices experienced gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.40% to 3878.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.31% to 13521.11 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.06% to 3240.02 points [2] - Overall, nearly 3000 stocks rose, indicating a bullish market sentiment [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry saw significant growth, with Huahong Semiconductor rising over 15% to reach a new historical high, and companies like Guolin Technology, Huamao Technology, and Wanye Enterprises hitting the daily limit [4] - SEMI data indicates that by Q2 2025, the market share of semiconductor equipment in mainland China is expected to exceed 30%, driven by domestic wafer fab capacity expansion and increased market penetration by local equipment manufacturers [4] - Notably, SMIC's capacity utilization rate is projected at 92.5% for the first half of 2025, while Huahong Semiconductor is expected to achieve 108.3% [4] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector was active, with stocks like Jingyi Co., Xiyang Co., and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals hitting the daily limit [5] - On September 29, the domestic cobalt market experienced a significant surge, with the average price of 1 cobalt reported at 337,000 yuan/ton, marking a substantial increase of 29,000 yuan, the largest single-day rise this year [5] Group 4: Other Sectors - The military industry saw gains, with companies like Huaqin Technology leading the increase [1] - Conversely, the financial sector faced a collective adjustment, with Yunan Rural Commercial Bank leading the decline [1] - The wind power equipment sector experienced fluctuations, with Zhenjiang Co. showing notable declines, while the consumer sector weakened, particularly in the liquor segment, with Huangtai Liquor leading the drop [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bullish [4] Core View of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals showed a trend of stabilizing and rebounding after a decline. With the upcoming National Day holiday, the downstream restocking enthusiasm may be stimulated. It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging in the next week, with the buying range between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 43.72 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 15.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 75 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 9,975 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,350 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On September 22, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,150 yuan/ton and closed at 17,125 yuan/ton, a change of - 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 24,370 lots, a change of - 11,605 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position was 27,432 lots, a change of - 5,311 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,170 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,075 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,190 yuan/ton and closed at 17,165 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price remained flat compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters mainly shipped on long - term contracts, and some holders quoted at a discount of 150 - 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract for ex - factory prices. In Hunan, brand lead smelters also mainly shipped on long - term contracts, with few quotes for scattered orders. Traders quoted at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2510 contract or 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract for ex - factory prices. In Anhui and Jiangxi, holders quoted at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory prices. The lead futures fluctuated slightly lower, smelters' quotes were relatively firm, and downstream battery enterprises made small - scale bargain purchases after the pre - holiday stockpiling, with the trading volume in some markets being rather light [2] Inventory - On September 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 55,000 tons, a change of - 12,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 22, the LME lead inventory was 221,675 tons, a change of 1,375 tons compared to the previous trading day [3] Strategy - It is recommended to use buy - on - dips hedging in the next week, with the buying range between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [4]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term outlook for alumina futures is bearish due to significant price declines, but the downside potential is limited, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for investors [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Domestic and international ore supply disruptions are ongoing, which is expected to support ore prices [1] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance may drive a stronger performance in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Group 2: Price Forecast - The domestic main contract AO2601 is projected to operate within a range of 3000 to 3300 yuan/ton [1] - Close attention should be paid to supply-side policies and the mining policies in Guinea [1]