Market Performance - Since July 2025, major indices have risen significantly, with the ChiNext 50, ChiNext Index, and Sci-Tech 50 increasing by over 45%[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 have risen by 15.79%, 19.20%, 24.10%, 17.67%, and 14.89% respectively[1] Fund Establishment and Holdings - A total of 90 equity-oriented active funds were established in Q3 2025, with a total share of 554.04 billion[2] - The average stock position of various types of equity-oriented active funds increased compared to Q2 2025[3] Industry Distribution - The industries with increased holdings of over 100 billion include electronics, communication, power equipment and new energy, computer, non-ferrous metals, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and media[4] - The electronics sector saw a holding increase of 5.17%, while communication increased by 3.95%[4] Individual Stock Distribution - The top five stocks with the largest increase in holdings are Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Industrial Fulian, CATL, and Cambricon[5] - The largest holdings in A-shares are CATL, Xinyi Sheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, Luxshare Precision, and Industrial Fulian[5] Large Fund Holdings Analysis - As of October 28, 2025, there are 34 equity-oriented active funds with holdings exceeding 100 billion, an increase of 10 from the previous quarter[6] - The stocks with the most significant changes in holdings among large funds include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Luxshare Precision, CATL, and Industrial Fulian[6] Hong Kong Stock Holdings - The top six Hong Kong stocks held by funds in Q3 2025 include Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, SMIC, Innovent Biologics, Pop Mart, and Xiaomi Group-W, each with a market value exceeding 10 billion[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of alumina futures stopped falling and fluctuated due to the easing of Sino - US relations and the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. The spot price continued to decline under the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation. Although the alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term, the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy and the approaching of the current price to most manufacturers' cost - lines may lead to an increase in production cut expectations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures price**: As of 3 p.m. on October 24, the alumina index rose 0.43% to 2821 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 36,000 lots to 494,000 lots. The basis: the spot price in Shandong was 2800 yuan/ton, with a premium of 1 yuan/ton over the 11 - contract. The spread between the first and third contracts was - 42 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spot price**: This week, the spot prices of alumina in various regions continued to decline. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 35 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [11][21]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 51,000 tons to 4.69 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 53,000 tons, 10,000 tons, decreased by 28,000 tons, and increased by 16,000 tons respectively. The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE totaled 221,300 tons, unchanged from last week; the delivery warehouse inventory was 239,600 tons, also unchanged from last week [11][68][71]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot price**: The spot prices of alumina in various regions continued to decline due to continuous inventory accumulation [21]. - **Futures price and basis**: The alumina futures price stopped falling and fluctuated. The basis in Shandong was a premium of 1 yuan/ton over the 11 - contract, and the spread between the first and third contracts was - 42 yuan/ton [24]. - **Bauxite price**: The bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. The CIF price of Guinea decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 72.5 dollars/ton, and that of Australia remained at 69 dollars/ton. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment increased, and the alumina enterprises' willingness to lower prices increased. With high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline [27]. 3.3. Supply - side - **Bauxite production**: In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 45.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.28% [31]. - **Bauxite import**: In September 2025, China imported 15.88 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 37.45% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.77%. The cumulative import in the first nine months was 157.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.97% [33]. - **Bauxite inventory**: In September, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 1.04 million tons to 52.27 million tons, still at a high level in the past five years. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi decreased by 230,000 tons, and that in Henan decreased by 80,000 tons [40]. - **Alumina production**: In September 2025, China's alumina production was 7.746 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 66.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.82%. As of October 24, the weekly production was 1.862 million tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week [42][43]. - **Alumina plant profit**: The alumina plant profit was under pressure due to the decline in the spot price. On October 24, the production profit in Guangxi was 275 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the profit using Australian ore and Guinea ore was - 15 yuan/ton and 65 yuan/ton respectively. Inland alumina plants using overseas ore in Shanxi and Henan had turned slightly into losses [46]. - **Alumina import and export**: In September 2025, the net export of alumina was 186,400 tons, maintaining a net export situation. The import volume decreased from 94,000 tons last month to 60,000 tons, and the export volume increased from 180,500 tons to 246,400 tons. The cumulative net export in the first nine months was 1.4512 million tons. As of October 24, the FOB price in Australia decreased by 6 dollars/ton to 314 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 21 yuan/ton [48][50]. - **Overseas alumina production**: In September 2025, the overseas alumina production was 5.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 46.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.06% [52]. 3.4. Demand - side - **Electrolytic aluminum production**: In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [57]. - **Electrolytic aluminum operation**: In September 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from last month. The operating rate increased by 0.35 percentage points to 97.47% [60]. 3.5. Supply - demand Balance The alumina supply - demand balance table shows the supply and demand situation from January to December 2025, including the supply - demand difference, total demand, total supply, net export, export volume, import volume, demand for electrolytic aluminum, electrolytic aluminum production, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity, alumina production, and alumina operating capacity [63]. 3.6. Inventory - **Social inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 51,000 tons to 4.69 million tons this week, with different changes in various types of inventory [68]. - **SHFE inventory**: The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE totaled 221,300 tons, unchanged from last week; the delivery warehouse inventory was 239,600 tons, also unchanged from last week [71].

Group 1: Market Overview - Major stock indices experienced gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.40% to 3878.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.31% to 13521.11 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.06% to 3240.02 points [2] - Overall, nearly 3000 stocks rose, indicating a bullish market sentiment [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry saw significant growth, with Huahong Semiconductor rising over 15% to reach a new historical high, and companies like Guolin Technology, Huamao Technology, and Wanye Enterprises hitting the daily limit [4] - SEMI data indicates that by Q2 2025, the market share of semiconductor equipment in mainland China is expected to exceed 30%, driven by domestic wafer fab capacity expansion and increased market penetration by local equipment manufacturers [4] - Notably, SMIC's capacity utilization rate is projected at 92.5% for the first half of 2025, while Huahong Semiconductor is expected to achieve 108.3% [4] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector was active, with stocks like Jingyi Co., Xiyang Co., and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals hitting the daily limit [5] - On September 29, the domestic cobalt market experienced a significant surge, with the average price of 1 cobalt reported at 337,000 yuan/ton, marking a substantial increase of 29,000 yuan, the largest single-day rise this year [5] Group 4: Other Sectors - The military industry saw gains, with companies like Huaqin Technology leading the increase [1] - Conversely, the financial sector faced a collective adjustment, with Yunan Rural Commercial Bank leading the decline [1] - The wind power equipment sector experienced fluctuations, with Zhenjiang Co. showing notable declines, while the consumer sector weakened, particularly in the liquor segment, with Huangtai Liquor leading the drop [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bullish [4] Core View of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals showed a trend of stabilizing and rebounding after a decline. With the upcoming National Day holiday, the downstream restocking enthusiasm may be stimulated. It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging in the next week, with the buying range between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 43.72 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 15.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 75 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 9,975 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,350 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On September 22, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,150 yuan/ton and closed at 17,125 yuan/ton, a change of - 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 24,370 lots, a change of - 11,605 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position was 27,432 lots, a change of - 5,311 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,170 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,075 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,190 yuan/ton and closed at 17,165 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price remained flat compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters mainly shipped on long - term contracts, and some holders quoted at a discount of 150 - 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract for ex - factory prices. In Hunan, brand lead smelters also mainly shipped on long - term contracts, with few quotes for scattered orders. Traders quoted at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2510 contract or 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract for ex - factory prices. In Anhui and Jiangxi, holders quoted at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory prices. The lead futures fluctuated slightly lower, smelters' quotes were relatively firm, and downstream battery enterprises made small - scale bargain purchases after the pre - holiday stockpiling, with the trading volume in some markets being rather light [2] Inventory - On September 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 55,000 tons, a change of - 12,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 22, the LME lead inventory was 221,675 tons, a change of 1,375 tons compared to the previous trading day [3] Strategy - It is recommended to use buy - on - dips hedging in the next week, with the buying range between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [4]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term outlook for alumina futures is bearish due to significant price declines, but the downside potential is limited, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for investors [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Domestic and international ore supply disruptions are ongoing, which is expected to support ore prices [1] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance may drive a stronger performance in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Group 2: Price Forecast - The domestic main contract AO2601 is projected to operate within a range of 3000 to 3300 yuan/ton [1] - Close attention should be paid to supply-side policies and the mining policies in Guinea [1]