1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is gradually digesting potential negative factors, and sentiment is easing. In Q1, the issuance scale of government bonds is expected to be roughly the same as in the same period of 2025, but the specific proportion of ultra - long bonds remains to be confirmed. The strong performance of the equity market at the beginning of the year has increased short - term profit - taking needs, and the market may enter a consolidation phase, which is expected to relieve liquidity pressure. However, the fundamental support may weaken, as the manufacturing PMI in December exceeded expectations and the economic data of that month may improve marginally, reducing the need for further loose monetary policies in the short term. With multiple factors at play, interest rates are expected to continue their weak and volatile trend in the short term [103]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts (TS2603, TF2603, T2603, TL2603) fell by 0.12%, 0.18%, 0.09%, and 0.48% respectively. The trading volumes of the TS, TF, and TL main contracts increased, while that of the T main contract decreased. The open interests of the TF, T, and TS main contracts decreased, and that of the TL main contract increased [14][29]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News**: On January 6, the People's Bank of China planned to use various monetary policy tools flexibly and efficiently in 2026, and strengthen financial market supervision. The same day, China banned the export of dual - use items to Japanese military users. On January 7, eight ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'". On January 8, the central bank conducted a 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation. The US initial jobless claims last week rose to 208,000, and the US President Trump expected to "manage" Venezuela for many years and increase the military budget [35][36]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year yields, and 10 - year and 1 - year yields widened. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contract yields narrowed. The spreads between the current and next quarters of the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts widened, while those of the 2 - year and 5 - year contracts narrowed [44][50][56]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T Treasury bond futures main contract decreased significantly [67]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - Shibor rates for overnight and 1 - week terms increased, while those for 2 - week and 1 - month terms decreased. The weighted - average DR007 rate fell to around 1.47%. Most Treasury bond spot yields increased, with the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rising by about 3.75bp and 5.45bp to 1.88% and 2.31% respectively [71]. - The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields fluctuated [76]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 102.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market, with 1.3236 trillion yuan due. The 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase was rolled over, and the treasury cash fixed - term deposit of 6 billion yuan matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.2449 trillion yuan. The weighted - average DR007 rate fell to around 1.47% [81]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 976.86 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 412.35 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of 564.51 billion yuan [86]. - **Market Sentiment** - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0128, up 160 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB narrowed. - The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fluctuated, and the VIX index increased. - The yield of the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond increased slightly, and the A - share risk premium decreased [91][94][99]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In December, macro - policies continued to take effect, inflation moderately rebounded, the CPI year - on - year increase continued to expand, and the PPI decline narrowed to 1.9%. For the whole year, the CPI was flat compared with the previous year, and the PPI was still in the negative range. In December, the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both improved and returned above the boom - bust line. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [102]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US job market continued to cool down. The ADP employment in December increased to 41,000 but was still lower than expected. The number of job openings in November dropped to a 14 - month low. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in December unexpectedly fell to 47.9, the lowest since 2024, while the non - manufacturing PMI rebounded, indicating the resilience of the service industry. The US raid on Venezuela caused geopolitical shocks [102].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the Chinese government's initiative to promote green consumption through a series of measures aimed at enhancing the supply of green products, improving green service consumption, and innovating green consumption models [1][4] - The Chinese government plans to allocate 300 billion RMB in special long-term bonds by 2025 to support the "trade-in" policy for consumer goods, which is expected to stimulate domestic demand [1] - The "trade-in" policy has reportedly driven sales of related goods exceeding 2.6 trillion RMB and benefited over 360 million people throughout the year [1] Group 2 - Since the full implementation of the "trade-in" policy in September 2024, over 480 million subsidies have been distributed directly to consumers [4] - For every two new household cars sold in 2025, one will benefit from the automobile trade-in subsidy, encouraging more consumers to experience in-store shopping [4] - The policy has led to a more than 30% increase in consumer spending in areas with concentrated physical stores for home appliance trade-ins within a 1-kilometer radius [4]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding the supply of green agricultural products, encouraging enterprises to procure organic and high-quality agricultural products, and supporting the establishment of dedicated sales areas for green products [2] - It promotes the purchase of certified green smart home appliances and eco-friendly building materials, focusing on green, intelligent, and elderly-friendly directions [3] - The article supports the purchase of new energy vehicles and aims to strengthen the automotive industry chain while exploring the potential of the second-hand car market and new consumption models like RV camping and car cinemas [4] Group 2 - It highlights the development of green dining by urging restaurants and delivery platforms to implement regulations, reduce waste, and promote eco-friendly packaging [5] - The article discusses the cultivation of green hotels that use non-toxic, water-saving products and encourage the use of refillable toiletries [6] - It promotes the use of environmentally friendly cleaning products in home services and encourages innovative online booking and shared service models [7] Group 3 - The article advocates for the creation of a green supply chain that promotes sustainable practices throughout the supply chain, including shared delivery and recyclable packaging [8] - It encourages the establishment of a green consumption points system that links product certification with consumer rewards for purchasing green products [9] - The article promotes innovative sharing models for transportation, space, and goods, integrating artificial intelligence with green consumption [10] Group 4 - It emphasizes the reduction of single-use plastic products by encouraging retailers to provide reusable alternatives and promoting recyclable packaging in e-commerce [12] - The article discusses the establishment of a three-tier recycling system to facilitate the collection and reuse of waste materials [13] - It supports new business models for second-hand goods, including online platforms and community flea markets [14] Group 5 - The article encourages the use of energy-efficient facilities and prioritizes the use of green electricity in buildings [15] - It advocates for a green consumption mindset, promoting sustainable practices such as bringing personal containers and choosing low-carbon products [16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The industry is expected to experience low - level consolidation [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Core Content Policy and Industry Data - The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments jointly issued a green consumption promotion action with 20 specific measures in 7 aspects including enriching green product supply and supporting new - energy vehicle purchases, and encouraging the purchase of certified green smart home appliances [2] - In December 2025, the average transaction price of newly built commercial residential buildings in 100 cities was 17,084 yuan per square meter, with a month - on - month increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year increase of 2.58%. The average price of second - hand residential buildings in 100 cities was 13,016 yuan per square meter, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.36% [2] Market Conditions of Finished Products - Yesterday, finished products fluctuated and declined. The weak downstream demand remained unchanged, and the decline of raw material coking coal also led to the decline of finished product prices. It showed characteristics of weak supply and demand, and the macro - market had limited impact on prices [2] Future Outlook - The finished products are expected to run in a low - level consolidation later [3] - Future attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]

Market Overview - On the first trading day of 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.38% to 4023.42 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.24% and the ChiNext Index by 2.85%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.55 trillion yuan. The leading sectors included media, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, while oil and petrochemicals, banking, and transportation lagged behind [2][7] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.03%, closing at 26347.24 points, while the U.S. major indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.23% to a record high of 48977.18 points [2][7] Important News - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to enhance innovation and development advantages during his research in Guangdong, advocating for the improvement of industrial ecosystems and the exploration of effective business models for new technologies such as robots and drones [3][8] - A joint announcement from nine departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, implemented actions to promote green consumption, focusing on enhancing the supply of green products and encouraging the purchase of electric vehicles and certified green appliances [3][8] Industry Insights Media Industry - The New Year's Day box office exceeded 740 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 61.01% compared to the previous year. The extended holiday period allowed for a diverse range of films to cater to audience preferences, with major sequels leading the box office [9][10] - The total number of screenings during the New Year's holiday reached 1.417 million, with a notable increase in audience attendance, particularly on January 1, which saw a 14.20% year-on-year increase [10][12] - Major IP sequels like "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar 3" demonstrated strong box office resilience, contributing significantly to the overall market performance [12] Gaming Industry - In December 2025, a total of 147 game titles received approval, with 144 domestic and 3 imported games. The total number of game approvals for the year reached 1771, a 25.07% increase from 2024 [13][14] - The game "Seven Realms Dream" is highlighted for its unique "national style" theme and innovative gameplay mechanics, indicating a competitive landscape in the MMO sector for 2026 [14][15] Tourism Industry - The 2026 New Year's holiday saw 142 million domestic trips and total spending of 847.89 billion yuan, benefiting from the extended holiday period compared to the previous year [16][17] - The tourism market experienced a boost due to various factors, including the popularity of winter sports, the appeal of Hainan's free trade zone, and increased interest in outbound travel [18][19] - The outlook for 2026 remains positive, with expectations for further growth in the tourism sector driven by favorable policies and consumer confidence [19]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is promoting green consumption through a series of initiatives aimed at fostering sustainable production and lifestyle choices across various sectors, including food, housing, transportation, and recycling [1]. Group 1: Food Sector - The initiative emphasizes increasing the supply of green agricultural products and encourages businesses to procure high-quality items such as organic and geographical indication products [3]. - It aims to reduce food waste by promoting practices like "small portion meals" and the use of biodegradable packaging in the food service industry [3]. Group 2: Housing Sector - The promotion of green living includes encouraging the purchase of certified green appliances and eco-friendly building materials [5]. - The initiative also supports the development of green hotels that utilize non-toxic cleaning agents and provide refillable toiletries instead of single-use plastics [5][6]. Group 3: Transportation Sector - The initiative highlights the growth of the automotive industry, particularly the rise of new energy vehicles, which now account for nearly 60% of the market since the implementation of vehicle replacement policies [7]. - It encourages the exploration of the "aftermarket" potential in areas like used cars, rentals, and shared mobility services, while advocating for the integration of technology to enhance resource efficiency [7]. Group 4: Recycling and Second-hand Market - The initiative promotes a circular economy by encouraging retailers to offer reusable shopping bags and supporting the establishment of a three-tier recycling system [8]. - It also advocates for the development of second-hand markets and the establishment of stores that focus on the resale of used goods, aiming to maximize the value of idle items [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have jointly issued a notice to promote green consumption, outlining 20 specific measures across seven areas to support the development of a green economy and society during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1]. Group 1: Green Consumption Infrastructure - Establish a project library for green consumption infrastructure and regularly recommend quality projects to financial institutions [1]. - Support qualified projects to issue Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the infrastructure sector [1]. Group 2: Promotion of Green Products - Encourage the purchase of new energy vehicles and enhance the automotive industry chain, including the second-hand car market and car-sharing services [2]. - Promote green home appliances and home decoration by encouraging the purchase of certified green products and improving energy and water efficiency standards [2]. - Increase the supply of green agricultural products by encouraging enterprises to expand procurement of organic and high-quality agricultural products [2]. Group 3: Innovation in Green Consumption Models - Promote the integration of artificial intelligence with green consumption to innovate smart products and enhance resource utilization through advanced technology [2]. Group 4: Policy Support and Financial Incentives - Strengthen policy integration by linking green consumption initiatives with modern commerce and retail innovations [3]. - Encourage financial institutions to increase support for green consumption loans and provide convenient services for users with good records [3]. - Innovate financial products to offer insurance for green consumption and establish a project library for green consumption infrastructure [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government, through the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments, has launched a green consumption promotion initiative aimed at fostering a sustainable low-carbon lifestyle and production methods across various sectors [1]. Group 1: Food Sector - The initiative emphasizes increasing the supply of green agricultural products and encourages businesses to expand their procurement of high-quality goods such as organic and geographical indication products [3]. - It aims to reduce cooking oil emissions, curb food waste, and promote the use of biodegradable and reusable packaging in the food service industry [3]. Group 2: Housing Sector - The initiative encourages the purchase of green-certified smart home appliances and eco-friendly building materials, focusing on sustainable and intelligent home solutions [5]. - It promotes the development of green hotels that utilize non-toxic, water-saving cleaning agents and offer refillable toiletries instead of single-use plastic items [5]. Group 3: Transportation Sector - The initiative supports the automotive industry by promoting the replacement of old vehicles with new energy vehicles, which currently account for nearly 60% of the market [7]. - It encourages the exploration of the second-hand car market, car rentals, and shared mobility services, highlighting the role of technology in enhancing resource efficiency [7]. Group 4: Recycling and Second-hand Market - The initiative promotes a circular economy by encouraging retailers to provide reusable shopping bags and collaborating with e-commerce platforms for sustainable packaging solutions [9]. - It outlines the establishment of a three-tier recycling system and encourages the creation of second-hand shops to maximize the value of idle goods [9]. - The initiative also addresses the need for standardized green product certifications and the regulation of the second-hand market to enhance consumer trust and market efficiency [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued a notification on January 5, 2026, to implement green consumption promotion actions, proposing twenty specific measures across seven areas to optimize the green consumption environment [1][4]. Group 1: Green Product Supply - The notification emphasizes the need to enrich the supply of green products, enhance the market supply capacity of green agricultural products, and expand the procurement scale of green food, organic agricultural products, and geographical indication agricultural products [3][4]. - Enterprises are encouraged to actively participate in the promotion and circulation of high-quality green agricultural products, enhancing consumer awareness and trust in these products [3][4]. Group 2: Home Appliances and Home Decoration - In the home appliance and home decoration sector, there is a push for the popularization of green smart products, advocating for consumers to purchase certified green appliances such as green smart appliances and fluorine-free air conditioners [3][5]. - The notification calls for the improvement of energy efficiency and water efficiency standards for home appliances and accelerates the establishment of a certification system for green smart appliances [5]. - Consumers are encouraged to choose green decoration materials and kitchen and bathroom products, with a focus on green, smart, and elderly-friendly design [5]. Group 3: Automotive Consumption - The notification actively supports consumers in purchasing new energy vehicles and promotes the green transformation of the automotive industry [4][5]. - It emphasizes the development of the automotive industry chain, exploring the potential of the used car market, car rental, modification services, and shared mobility, while seeking efficient utilization of idle vehicle resources [4][5]. - The notification also encourages the development of new consumption formats such as RV camping, automotive cinemas, and self-driving tours to enrich green travel scenarios [4][5]. Group 4: Sustainable Development - Continuous promotion of the green high-quality development of the bulk cement industry is highlighted, focusing on resource conservation and environmental protection to help build a sustainable consumption system [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments jointly issued a notice to promote green consumption during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiming to enhance the green consumption incentive mechanism and facilitate a transition to a green, low-carbon lifestyle, thereby injecting green momentum into high-quality development [2][3][4]. Group 1: Green Agricultural Products - The notice encourages enterprises to expand the procurement of high-quality green food, organic agricultural products, and geographical indication products, and supports the establishment of dedicated sales areas for green agricultural products [2]. - It promotes direct procurement activities between green agricultural production bases and large supermarkets, community stores, and catering enterprises to increase the market supply of quality green agricultural products [2]. Group 2: Green Home Appliances and Renovation - The notice advocates for the purchase of green certified smart home appliances and encourages the use of green building materials in home renovations [3]. - It aims to improve energy and water efficiency standards for home appliances and supports the inclusion of qualified green home appliance brands in the list of Chinese consumer products [3]. Group 3: Green Automotive Consumption - The notice supports consumers in purchasing new energy vehicles and aims to strengthen the automotive industry chain while exploring the potential of the used car market and new consumption models such as RV camping and car-sharing [3]. Group 4: Green Dining - The notice urges catering service providers to comply with relevant laws and standards, promoting practices that reduce waste and encourage the use of biodegradable packaging [3]. - It encourages initiatives like the "Clean Plate Campaign" and the introduction of "green dining" service labels by internet platforms [3]. Group 5: Green Accommodation - The notice promotes the development of green hotels that utilize non-toxic, water-saving, and biodegradable cleaning products, and encourages the use of refillable toiletries [4]. - It suggests that online platforms actively promote green hotels through special designations and incentives for consumers [4]. Group 6: Green Housekeeping - The notice advocates for the use of environmentally friendly housekeeping products and innovative service models, including online booking and shared housekeeping services [4]. - It encourages the application of smart devices to enhance the efficiency and quality of housekeeping services [4]. Group 7: Financial Support for Green Consumption - The notice encourages financial institutions to increase support for green consumption loans and to provide convenient services for users with good green consumption records [4]. - It promotes the innovation of financial products to support green consumption, including insurance and the establishment of a project library for green consumption infrastructure [4].