原创：邢予青 秦朔朋友圈 五年前小鹏汽车创始人何小鹏嘲笑丰田章男对待EV（电动汽车）的态度，并在微博上暗示丰田就是下一个汽车行业的诺基亚。 岁月如梭，五年一晃就过去了，尽管EV造车新势力在中国市场上如日中天， 但是，丰田依然是全球汽车业老大，并没有成为汽车行业的诺基亚。 新崛起的中国造车新势力，也没有把丰田从神坛上拉下来。 2025年，丰田全球汽车销售1132万辆，远远超过位居第二的德国大众汽车的898万辆。这已经是丰田连续第六年成为卖车最多的世界冠军了。 美国是丰田最重要的海外市场。不幸的是，2025年特朗普开启了全球贸易大战。这对丰田在美国的业务来说是苦不堪言。 特朗普丝毫不考虑日本是美国在亚洲最可靠和忠实的盟友这一事实，对所有日本产品加征高达25%的关税。 在日本政府官员不顾十几小时的时差，多次飞往华盛顿与美国谈判，并最终答应在美国投资5500亿美元之后，特朗普才把对日关税降到15%。但是，这也 比WTO框架下的2.5%的最惠国汽车关税高6倍。 谨小慎微的丰田公司担心把关税转移给美国消费者会影响销售，就象征性地把在美国销售的汽车的价格平均提高了280美元，自己则忍痛承担绝大部分出 口美国汽车的关税。 中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Toyota Motor Corporation is undergoing a leadership change, with CFO Kenta Nishikata set to replace Akio Toyoda as President and CEO on April 1, 2026, amid significant shifts in the global automotive market [1][10]. Group 1: Leadership Transition - Kenta Nishikata will take over as President and CEO from Akio Toyoda, who served for three years [1]. - Nishikata's background in finance and experience in restructuring will be crucial as Toyota aims to improve its profitability and adapt to market changes [10]. Group 2: Performance Under Current Leadership - During Akio Toyoda's tenure, Toyota achieved a 4.6% increase in sales in 2023, reversing a previous decline [2]. - The company reported record operating profits exceeding 5 trillion yen and a net profit of 4.9 trillion yen, marking a more than doubling of net profit [2]. - Revenue grew by 21% year-on-year, reaching 45 trillion yen [2]. Group 3: Market Challenges - Despite being the global sales leader for six consecutive years, Toyota's market share in China has dropped from 23.1% in 2020 to 9.7% [5]. - The rise of electric vehicles (EVs) and domestic brands in China has put pressure on Toyota, which has been slow to adapt to the electrification trend [5]. Group 4: Financial Challenges - Toyota's gross profit growth has shown signs of fatigue since Q2 2025, with net profit experiencing significant fluctuations [9]. - The company has invested heavily in fuel cell and solid-state battery research, with 1.24 trillion yen spent in 2022 alone, representing 3.3% of revenue [9]. - The anticipated investment of 1.5 trillion yen by 2030 for battery development highlights the financial strain associated with these projects [9]. Group 5: Strategic Focus - The leadership change reflects Toyota's strategy to prioritize financial stability and profitability while navigating technological transitions [10]. - Nishikata's appointment as CEO marks a significant shift, as it is the first time a CFO has taken on this role, raising concerns about the potential impact on innovation [11][13]. - The company aims to balance financial health with the need for technological advancement to avoid falling behind competitors like BYD and Tesla [13].

Group 1 - Toyota plans to increase the production of hybrid vehicles (HV) by 30% by 2028, reaching a total of 6.7 million units, compared to the planned production in 2026 [2][4] - The overall global production, including gasoline and electric vehicles, is expected to increase by 10% by 2028, reaching approximately 11.3 million units [4] - The proportion of HV in Toyota's global production will rise from 50% in 2026 to 60% in 2028 [4] Group 2 - The company will invest up to 1.5 trillion yen in the U.S. over the next five years, with an initial investment of 140 billion yen in five factories to increase HV-specific engine and component production [5] - The shift in EV policies in the U.S. and Europe has led to increased consumer interest in HV as an alternative eco-friendly vehicle [5][7] - Global Data predicts that by 2030, the combined global sales of HV and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHV) will reach approximately 29 million units, an increase of about 2.8 million units compared to previous forecasts [5] Group 3 - Major automotive companies in the U.S. and Europe are adjusting their strategies, with Ford exiting the main EV development and Tesla repurposing its high-end EV production facilities for humanoid robots [7] - General Motors is collaborating with Hyundai to develop HV vehicles, while Volkswagen is working on improving fuel efficiency with new "full hybrid" technology [7] - Despite a slowdown in EV sales, it is still expected that EVs will surpass HV in the future, with predictions indicating that by 2031, EVs will account for 30% of the new car market [7] Group 4 - Toyota's strategy involves parallel development of HV, PHV, and EV, allowing for flexibility in a rapidly changing automotive market [7] - The funds generated from HV sales will be utilized for the development of the next generation of vehicles [7]

Group 1 - Toyota is committed to maintaining the total number of internal combustion engines until 2030, emphasizing the continued relevance of engines in the automotive industry [4][10] - The company plans to develop various high-power engines and increase local production of core components in the U.S. to meet rising demand for hybrid vehicles [10][13] - In response to stringent environmental regulations, Toyota's upcoming GR GT supercar will feature a 4-liter V8 engine and will be developed independently, marking a shift from previous collaborations [6][9] Group 2 - In the U.S., hybrid vehicles accounted for approximately 13% of new car sales from July to September 2025, indicating strong market demand [13] - Toyota's new SUV, RAV4, will be produced locally in North America, with plans to increase the production of hybrid models and components domestically [14][15] - The company is facing challenges in the Chinese market, where it plans to focus on developing models specifically for local consumers, such as the bZ3X electric SUV [17][18] Group 3 - Toyota's R&D expenses for the fiscal year 2024 are projected to be 1.3 trillion yen, reflecting the increased costs associated with a comprehensive power source strategy [21] - The company is collaborating with NTT on AI and communication infrastructure to enhance safety and with Waymo for advancements in autonomous driving technology [21] - A new business model is necessary for Toyota to navigate the evolving automotive landscape and maintain competitiveness [22]

Core Viewpoint - Toyota is committed to maintaining the total number of internal combustion engines until 2030, despite the shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) [2][8]. Group 1: Internal Combustion Engine Strategy - Toyota's President Akio Toyoda emphasized the importance of internal combustion engines, stating that they still have a role to play in the automotive industry [6][8]. - The company held a "combustion engine pledge conference" in June 2025, where it announced plans to develop various high-power engines [8]. - The upcoming "GR GT" supercar, set to launch around 2027, will feature a 4-liter V8 engine, marking a shift as it is developed independently by Toyota rather than in collaboration with Yamaha [4][6]. Group 2: Hybrid Vehicle Investment - Toyota plans to invest up to $10 billion in the U.S. over the next five years to increase production of hybrid vehicles and their components [8][10]. - The hybrid vehicle "Prius" will now incorporate larger engines, reflecting a strategic response to stringent environmental regulations [4][6]. - In the U.S., hybrid vehicles accounted for approximately 13% of new car sales from July to September 2025, leading Toyota to increase local production of core components [10]. Group 3: Electric Vehicle Development in China - Toyota is shifting its strategy in China, focusing on developing models specifically for the Chinese market rather than global models [12][14]. - The company plans to launch the EV sedan "bZ7" in spring 2026, following the successful introduction of the electric SUV "bZ3X" [14]. - Toyota's sales in China have been declining, with projections of 1.77 million units sold in 2024, indicating a need for a more localized approach [11][14]. Group 4: Research and Development Costs - Toyota's R&D expenses for the fiscal year 2024 are projected to be 1.3 trillion yen, which may lead to challenges in keeping pace with emerging competitors like BYD and Tesla [16]. - The company is also collaborating with NTT on AI and communication infrastructure to enhance safety and with Waymo for advancements in autonomous driving [16].

Core Insights - BYD plans to launch a Europe-specific plug-in hybrid model, Dolphin G, in 2024, targeting competitors like Volkswagen Golf GTE and Toyota Prius [1][3] - The Dolphin G is based on the pure electric Dolphin model and will share core technology with Atto 2 DM-i, featuring dimensions of approximately 4.3 meters in length and 1.8 meters in width [1][3] Powertrain and Efficiency - The Dolphin G's power system consists of a 1.5-liter four-cylinder engine and a front-mounted electric motor, capable of switching between series and parallel hybrid modes [3] - The combined power output of this system is expected to reach 193 kW, with a fuel consumption of approximately 1.8 liters per 100 kilometers and an electric-only range of about 90 kilometers [3] Market Strategy and Production - BYD's Vice President Li Ke stated that the Dolphin G is the first model truly tailored for the European market, rather than an adaptation of a Chinese model [3] - The company plans to initiate local production in Hungary, with the first models including Dolphin Surf and Atto 2, followed by the Dolphin G [3] - The Dolphin G will expand BYD's growing lineup of plug-in hybrids in Europe, joining models like Seal U DM-i, Seal 6 DM-i, Atto 2 DM-i, and others [3] Future Plans - BYD also intends to launch the Sealion 5 DM-i SUV in the UK, with plans for an Atto 3 plug-in hybrid version expected to be available around 2027 [3]

Core Viewpoint - BYD is leading the global market in plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHV), with its model "Sea Lion 6" being the top-selling SUV in this category, priced competitively in Japan [2][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the global PHV sales from January to October, BYD accounted for approximately 30% of the total 6.25 million units sold [9]. - The "Sea Lion 6" is priced at 3,982,000 yen (approximately 180,900 RMB), making it one of the most affordable options in the Japanese market for plug-in hybrid SUVs [5][6]. - BYD's sales in Japan increased by 64% year-on-year, reaching 3,298 units, although it still trails behind competitors like Mercedes-Benz and Tesla [12]. Group 2: Product Features - The "Sea Lion 6" offers a fuel efficiency of 22.4 km/L, outperforming competitors such as Mitsubishi's "Outlander PHEV" and Toyota's "Harrier" [5][12]. - The vehicle has been designed with enhanced passenger comfort in mind, incorporating feedback from Japanese consumers regarding rear seat comfort and vibration [10]. - It includes advanced driver assistance features, such as three millimeter-wave radars and a high-resolution camera for obstacle detection [12]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning - BYD aims to activate the electric vehicle market globally through its competitive EV and PHV offerings, marking its first entry into the PHV segment in Japan [4][9]. - The company is increasing its export ratio of PHVs to Europe, where these vehicles are not subject to additional tariffs imposed on Chinese EVs [13]. - Success in the Japanese market, particularly with PHVs, is crucial for BYD to enhance its presence and compete effectively against established brands [13].

Group 1 - Toyota announced a large-scale recall in the U.S. involving 1.02 million vehicles due to a software defect in the rearview camera that may freeze or go black while reversing, increasing collision risk [2] - The recall affects various popular models from Toyota and Lexus, including Camry, Highlander, RAV4, Prius, and several Lexus models, as well as the Subaru Solterra due to a shared monitoring system [2] - This is not the first recall for Toyota related to rearview camera issues, as a previous recall last month involved nearly 394,000 vehicles [2] Group 2 - For the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, Toyota reported a sales revenue of 12.38 trillion yen (approximately 573.92 billion yuan), an 8.2% year-on-year increase [3] - Operating profit was 839.55 billion yen (approximately 38.92 billion yuan), a significant decline of 27% year-on-year, while net profit reached 932.08 billion yen (approximately 43.21 billion yuan), a 62% increase year-on-year [3] - North America showed a 15% increase in sales, while Asia and Japan experienced declines; Toyota remains optimistic about the overall performance for fiscal year 2026 and has raised its annual forecasts for global vehicle sales, operating profit, net profit, and sales revenue [3]

Group 1 - Toyota is recalling 99,178 vehicles in Canada due to a software issue affecting the rearview camera display, specifically in models equipped with a panoramic camera system [2] - The company is expected to notify affected customers by the end of December, and dealers will provide free software updates [2] - Despite challenges in certain markets, Toyota has maintained strong global sales growth, with a nearly 3% year-on-year increase in global sales in September, reaching 949,200 units [2] Group 2 - In Japan, Toyota's sales have declined by 5% due to a large-scale recall of the Prius model, impacting production [3] - Conversely, in the U.S. market, Toyota and Lexus brands saw a sales increase of over 14%, driven by strong demand for hybrid vehicles, which accounted for 42% of total sales in the first half of the fiscal year [3] - To adapt to international market changes, Toyota is enhancing its global production strategy, focusing on localization in North America and accelerating its localization strategy in China, including establishing a manufacturing base for electric vehicles and batteries in Shanghai [3]

Core Viewpoint - Toyota maintains its position as the top-selling automaker in FY2024, but its operating profit has declined by 10% to 4.8 trillion yen (approximately 232 billion RMB) [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Leadership Compensation - Toyota's internal estimates suggest a potential 34.9% drop in net profit by FY2025, reducing it to 3.1 trillion yen [2]. - Despite the declining profits, Chairman Akio Toyoda received a salary of 1.949 billion yen (approximately 94.25 million RMB), marking an increase of over 20% [3]. - In FY2023, Toyoda's salary reached a record high of 1.622 billion yen, with a staggering 62% increase, sparking controversy [5]. Group 2: Leadership and Governance - Akio Toyoda's leadership is characterized by a high approval rating of 97%, raising questions about the value he brings to Toyota [7]. - The governance structure at Toyota has historically involved cross-shareholding, limiting Toyoda's ownership to less than 1% [10]. - Toyoda's rise to power involved a long journey through various roles within the company, showcasing a deep understanding of its operations [13][14]. Group 3: Strategic Direction and Electric Vehicle Transition - Under Toyoda's leadership, Toyota has focused on revitalizing the brand and expanding its product offerings, including sports and luxury vehicles [28]. - The company has engaged in international collaborations, investing in companies like Uber and Didi, while also partnering with competitors like BYD [42]. - Toyoda has been vocal against a rapid shift to electric vehicles, citing concerns over job losses and carbon emissions, while also committing to a 4 trillion yen investment in electrification [46][47]. Group 4: Organizational Changes and Future Outlook - Toyota has begun restructuring its employment practices, moving away from lifetime employment to a performance-based pay system [73]. - Recent strategic moves include the acquisition of its parent company, Toyota Industries, to streamline operations and enhance its transition to new technologies [82]. - The upcoming Lexus localization project aims to establish a manufacturing facility in China, set to begin production in 2027, indicating a significant shift in production strategy [85].