中信证券指出，当前国内金矿股涨至高位引发市场对于估值方法和估值空间的疑惑。对此我们认为，一 是方向上，金价上涨动能充足叠加金矿企业量增加速释放，量价齐升有望推动板块PE继续向上修复； 二是空间上，国内金矿股在现金流和资源维度被显著低估，未来两种估值方法的国内推广有望促进重 估。定性和定量两个层面，我们均看好国内黄金股的配置价值。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 10月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，我国9月末黄金储备报7406万盎司，环比增加4万盎司，为连 续第11个月增持黄金。 瑞银近期发布报告称，黄金市场目前倾向于看涨行情，预计到2026年年中金价将升至4200美元/盎司。 瑞银认为，美元走弱、央行大举购买黄金以及ETF投资增加等因素对金价构成利好，同时建议黄金在投 资组合中的配置比例为5%左右。 10月9日，COMEX黄金期货价格早盘小幅回调后再度拉升，目前交投于4056美元附近，黄金相关ETF午 后延续强势，截至收盘，黄金股ETF(159562)涨近9%，其持仓股四川黄金、山东黄金、中金黄金、白银 有色、江西铜业股份等股批量涨停，西部黄金、紫金矿业、赤峰黄金等股纷纷走强，黄金ETF华夏 (51885 ...

随着全球第二大铜矿近日因事故暂停生产，国际铜矿供给趋紧压力进一步加大。与此同时，针对铜冶炼 行业"内卷式"竞争导致铜精矿加工费持续低位的问题，国内相关协会近日发出坚决反对"内卷式"竞争的 明确信号。受上述因素刺激，9月25日沪铜期货市场迎来77亿元资金流入，市场成交量明显放大； 含"铜"量高的指数基金产品也迎来大量资金流入。 中信证券分析师拜俊飞认为，未来全球矿山产量增长将显著收缩，预测2024～2027年全球主要铜企产量 增量约50万吨，仅为2021～2024年的1/3左右，其中增量将进一步向中资企业集中。 此外，中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会近日针对铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争导致铜精矿加工费持续低位的 问题，发出坚决反对"内卷式"竞争的明确信号，更为金属铜市场增加了一份热度。根据上海有色网 (SMM)数据，目前中国进口周度精矿加工费为负40美元/吨左右。 天风证券（601162）金属首席分析师刘奕町认为，通过"反内卷"，矿冶产能之间的匹配度提升，让冶炼 成本具有优势的企业盈利能力更强。 当前金属铜已被美国视为"战略资源"。人工智能产业的崛起正在推动铜需求的激增，这一金属正被大量 投入耗电量惊人的数字中心服务器 ...

近日黄金股ETF（159562）持续获资金布局，近12天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"9.38亿元，黄金股ETF最新份额达7.81亿份，最新规模达15.92亿元， 均创近1年新高。 9月16日 ，受隔夜金价新高带动，上金所SGE黄金9999早盘高开，三大指数纷纷回调，黄金相关产品表现分化，截至11:13，黄金股ETF（159562）跌 2.00%，其持仓股跌多涨少，豫光金铅、株冶集团、江西铜业股份、万国黄金集团等股纷纷重挫，截至9月15日，黄金股ETF近1年净值上涨78.85%，涨幅居 赛道首位，有色金属ETF基金（516650）跌3.13%，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨0.83%。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 201899 | 影要见,不 | -2.08% | 11.62% | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | -0.97% | 10.72% | | 600489 | 中金黄金 | -1.68% | 7.91% | | 600988 | 赤峰黄金 | -1.67% | 7.69% | | 01818 | 招金矿业 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on the prices of precious and industrial metals, leading to a significant rise in the non-ferrous metal index by 2.93% [3] - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) saw an increase of 3.06%, with major holdings like Yunnan Copper and Northern Copper reaching their daily limit up, indicating strong market performance [3] - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 15 days, totaling 346 million yuan, with its latest share count reaching 389 million and total assets hitting 575 million yuan, both marking new highs in the past year [3] Group 2 - According to Minsheng Securities, the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with seasonal demand improvements in September and October, provides strong upward momentum for industrial metal prices [3] - Concerns have arisen regarding a month-on-month decline in electrolytic copper production in September, which is expected to impact October's supply, while the demand fundamentals remain robust due to the consumption peak in September [3] - In the aluminum sector, supply-side adjustments and a resurgence of holding merchants' price support sentiment, along with downstream replenishment activities, indicate sustained demand [3] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund closely tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index, with the top ten weighted stocks as of August 29, 2025, including Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and Luoyang Molybdenum, collectively accounting for 51.86% of the index [4] - The top ten stocks by weight in the non-ferrous metal ETF fund include Zijin Mining (15.80%), Northern Rare Earth (4.98%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (4.68%), among others, reflecting a diverse portfolio [6]

Group 1 - The three major indices experienced a collective pullback, with gold prices fluctuating after reaching $3,578, while the performance of gold-related ETFs showed divergence [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) fell by 2.03%, with strong performances from stocks like Silver Holdings (601212) and Western Gold (601069), while companies like Huayou Cobalt (603799) and Tin Industry Co. (000960) led the decline [1] - Over the past five trading days, there has been a continuous inflow of 109 million, with a net inflow of 54 million yesterday, while the gold stock ETF (159562) fell by 1.08% [1] Group 2 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has significantly increased, with the probability of maintaining rates in September dropping to 10.3% and the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut rising to 89.7% [1] - According to Debon Securities, the combination of the Fed's rate cut expectations and the gradual decline of the dollar's global status is accelerating the long-term logic, leading to sustained optimism for gold, which is expected to push silver prices higher [1] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) tracks the CSI segmented non-ferrous metal industry theme index, focusing on industrial metals like gold, copper, and aluminum, as well as rare earths and tungsten, with respective weights of 29.6% for copper, 14.4% for aluminum, 14.0% for rare earths, 13.5% for gold, and 7.1% for lithium [2]

Group 1 - The three major indices experienced a collective pullback, with gold prices fluctuating after reaching $3,578, while gold-related ETFs showed mixed performance [1] - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates a significant increase in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the likelihood of maintaining rates dropping to 10.3% and a 25 basis point cut rising to 89.7% [1] - Debon Securities suggests that the combination of rising expectations for a Fed rate cut and the gradual decline of the dollar's global status is accelerating the long-term logic, leading to sustained optimism for gold and potential upward pressure on silver prices [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) tracks the CSI segmented non-ferrous metal industry theme index, focusing on industrial metals like gold, copper, and aluminum, as well as rare earths, tungsten, and energy metals like lithium and cobalt [1] - The weightings of various metals in the index are as follows: copper 29.6%, aluminum 14.4%, rare earths 14.0%, gold 13.5%, and lithium 7.1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market showed strong performance in the lithium and rare earth sectors, with significant gains in related stocks and ETFs, indicating a bullish trend in the non-ferrous metals industry [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 29, 2025, the market experienced a red plate fluctuation, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading the gains, particularly in lithium and rare earth concepts [2]. - The non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) rose by 3.19%, with a weekly cumulative increase of 7.88% and an average daily trading volume exceeding 40 million yuan [2]. - The China Rare Earth stock hit the daily limit, achieving two consecutive boards, while other stocks like Shenghe Resources and Tin Industry shares also saw significant increases of 9.24% and 7.21%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Index and Weighting - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Theme Index (000811) accounted for 50.84% of the index, including Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and Luoyang Molybdenum [2]. - The top ten stocks by weight are as follows: Zijin Mining (15.80%), Northern Rare Earth (4.98%), Luoyang Molybdenum (4.68%), Shandong Gold (4.56%), China Aluminum (4.41%), Huayou Cobalt (3.98%), Zhongjin Gold (3.36%), Chifeng Jilong Gold (3.27%), Ganfeng Lithium (3.01%), and Yun Aluminum (2.63%) [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on India, which has led to increased risk aversion and a subsequent rise in gold prices, benefiting gold-related stocks and ETFs [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a significant upward movement, with gold stock ETFs (159562) rising by 1.38% and individual stocks like China National Gold International increasing by over 10% [1] - Other gold-related companies such as Zhaojin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Jiangxi Copper also showed strong performance [1] - The gold ETF Huaxia (518850) saw a modest increase of 0.21%, while the non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) declined by 0.22%, indicating a mixed performance in the sector [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Gold mining companies reported strong performance in the first half of the year, with over 80% of the 24 companies that disclosed their mid-year reports showing positive earnings, averaging a net profit growth rate of 58.44% [1] - The overall development trend for gold mining companies remains positive, with expectations for continued earnings growth [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Since July, various factors such as anti-involution, tariff conflicts, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have been influencing the market, leading to recommendations for investment in non-ferrous metals [1] - Gold stocks have shown a notable lag compared to other sub-sectors, suggesting potential for valuation recovery as market sentiment improves [1] - The earnings elasticity and long-term growth certainty of gold stocks are expected to drive their valuation recovery in the near term [1]

Technology Sector - The secondary market is seeing leading gains in ETFs such as the AI ETF (159381), 5G Communication ETF (515050), and AI ETF (515070), indicating a shift towards a capital-driven phase in the technology sector, with increased volatility expected [1] - The China Computing Power Conference has announced policies to accelerate breakthroughs in key core technologies like GPU chips and expand the supply of basic common technologies, alongside the opening of overseas large models [1] - The technology sector is showing signs of reaching a phase of high points, with the potential for decreasing second derivatives, suggesting a rising probability of volatility, which can be managed through high-low switching strategies; software, consumer electronics, and gaming sectors remain in a healthy sentiment range [1] Overseas Liquidity Easing - Expectations of overseas interest rate cuts have led to significant gains in ETFs such as the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650), Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330), and Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) [2] - At the Jackson Hole meeting, Powell indicated that inflationary pressures from tariffs may be temporary, while employment weakness is rising, suggesting a potential adjustment in monetary policy, which could pave the way for a new round of global interest rate cuts [2] - Following weak labor data in the U.S. since early August, Powell's dovish remarks provide a foundation for anticipated rate cuts in September, which may strengthen the non-ferrous metals sector and enhance its valuation recovery potential [2] - Hong Kong technology stocks, particularly those with high "AI content," are seen as undervalued, with rising expectations for a rebound in overall valuations as liquidity improves and regulatory policies support competition among platform enterprises [2]

Group 1 - The rare earth and cobalt-molybdenum-tungsten sectors showed strength in early trading on August 22, with the sub-index of non-ferrous metals slightly rising [1] - As of 10:35 AM, the non-ferrous metals ETF fund (516650) increased by 0.61%, with holdings such as Northern Rare Earth (600111) rising over 6% [1] - Notable movements were observed in Huayou Cobalt (603799), Shenghe Resources (600392), and Jinchuan Group (601958), indicating a broader trend in the sector [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metals ETF fund (516650) has seen a net subscription of 11.72 million in the past five days, reflecting increased investor interest [1] - In the context of "de-globalization," the strategic significance of rare earths has become more pronounced, highlighted by the U.S. Department of Defense's acquisition of a 15% stake in MP Materials for $400 million [1] - China's implementation of export controls to combat illegal rare earth exports further underscores the strategic value of these resources [1] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metals ETF fund (516650) tracks the CSI sub-index of the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on industrial metals such as gold, copper, aluminum, as well as rare earths and tungsten-molybdenum, and energy metals like lithium and cobalt [1] - The weightings of various metals in the index are as follows: copper 28.7%, gold 14.4%, aluminum 15.5%, rare earths 11.6%, and lithium 7.6% [1]