2026.01. 21 本文字数：1640，阅读时长大约3分钟 此外，沈开艳认为，上海消费的有力提振增长还受益于"五五购物节""旅游节"等活动的持续引流，其 中旅游节带动消费超3000亿元。另一方面，入境游政策如30天免签、144小时过境免签等进一步放 宽，通关、支付、离境退税等环节日益便利，离境退税商店新增近1000家，直飞航班加密，推动来 自韩国等地的客源爆发式增长。 作者 | 第一财经 缪琦 作为全国"消费第一城"，上海公布2025全年消费成绩单。 上海统计局数据显示，2025年，上海市实现社会消费品零售总额超过16600亿元，同比增长4.6%，增 速逐季回升，比前三季度提高0.3个百分点。这个增速高出全国（3.7%）0.9个百分点。 其中，新能源汽车、通讯器材、家电家具销售额均保持两位数增长。从类别看，限额以上单位中，文 化办公用品类零售额同比增长30.4%，家用电器和音像器材类增长24.3%，家具类增长22.0%，通讯 器材类增长16.4%。从零售业态看，限额以上网上商店零售额同比增长14.1%。 值得一提的是，上海2025全年接待入境游客创历史新高，达到936万人次，比上年增长40%，离境退 税销 ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes Shanghai's commitment to economic stability and growth, with a focus on implementing policies that enhance consumption and promote technological innovation [1][2] - The city aims to strengthen its role as a leading international hub through the development of the "Five Centers" and the promotion of significant national strategic tasks [2][3] - Shanghai's initiatives in improving public services and living conditions are highlighted, showcasing efforts to enhance citizens' satisfaction and well-being [2][3] Group 2 - The government plans to accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing, aiming for high-quality development [3] - There is a strong emphasis on equitable distribution of modernization benefits to all citizens, with investments in education, healthcare, and social services [3] - The city is committed to fostering a favorable business environment and enhancing cultural soft power to support sustainable urban development [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on expanding service consumption through various policy measures, aiming to enhance service supply capabilities and stimulate new growth in service consumption [1][3]. Group 1: Current Trends in Service Consumption - Service consumption is increasingly significant, with a shift towards a balanced focus on both goods and services. From 2020 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of residents' service consumption expenditure is projected to be 9.6% [1]. - From January to July this year, service retail sales increased by 5.2% year-on-year, indicating a rising proportion of service consumption [1]. - Key characteristics of service consumption development include continuous expansion, structural upgrades in demand for cultural, entertainment, tourism, sports, and education services, diversification of consumption scenarios, and an increase in demand for high-quality, personalized services [1][2]. Group 2: Strategies for Cultivating New Growth Points - Five strategies are proposed to cultivate new growth points in service consumption: expanding cultural and entertainment consumption, developing unique tourism experiences, enhancing sports consumption, promoting digital consumption, and tapping into lower-tier markets [2]. - There is a need for supply-side optimization, including institutional innovation to lower market entry barriers, enhancing technological empowerment for digital transformation, and building strong service brands [2][3]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - A comprehensive policy framework is suggested to support service consumption across various sectors such as home services, cultural tourism, digital services, health, and sports [3]. - To boost demand, it is recommended to increase urban and rural residents' income, optimize personal income tax systems, and implement measures like service consumption vouchers or subsidies [3].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of cultivating new growth points in service consumption, which is seen as having higher frequency, greater growth potential, and stronger employment generation compared to goods consumption [1][5][10] Group 1: Policy and Economic Context - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need to effectively release domestic demand potential, with a focus on service consumption as a key area for economic work in the second half of the year [1] - A report from Peking University indicates that by 2025, service consumption vouchers could leverage an additional 6.76 yuan for every 1 yuan of subsidy, potentially generating nearly 700 billion yuan in extra consumption [1][3] Group 2: Trends in Service Consumption - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that service retail sales increased by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a continuous rise in its share of total consumption [2][8] - The shift towards online service consumption is accelerating, becoming a key direction for expansion and upgrading, with innovative ecosystems playing a structural role [2][8] Group 3: Mechanisms for Stimulating Consumption - Digital platforms are breaking through traditional consumption stimulation challenges through three mechanisms: precise demand sensing, activation of multiplier effects, and addressing public service gaps [3][4] - The multiplier effect is evidenced by a 1:6.76 leverage ratio, where single-point subsidies trigger chain reactions in consumption, enhancing the overall economic impact [3][4] Group 4: Competitive Dynamics in Service Consumption - The article discusses how healthy competition among platforms is crucial for reshaping market boundaries, enabling the release of dormant demand and enhancing service accessibility across urban and rural areas [6][7] - The focus of competition is shifting towards cultural value and emotional experiences, moving service offerings from mere functionality to meaningful engagement [6][7] Group 5: Future Outlook for Service Consumption - Service consumption is projected to become a primary engine of national economic growth, with platforms expected to create 920 million new jobs from the anticipated 700 billion yuan consumption increase [9] - The service sector's contribution to GDP is currently at 56.7%, indicating significant room for growth compared to developed economies, positioning service consumption as a critical area for expanding domestic demand [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of cultivating new growth points in service consumption, which is seen as having higher frequency, greater growth potential, and stronger employment generation capabilities compared to goods consumption [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting has set the focus for economic work in the second half of the year on effectively releasing domestic demand potential, particularly through service consumption [1] - A report from Peking University Guanghua School of Management indicates that by 2025, service consumption vouchers could leverage an additional 6.76 yuan for every 1 yuan of subsidy, potentially driving nearly 700 billion yuan in additional consumption [1][2] Group 2 - Digital platforms are breaking through traditional consumption stimulation challenges by employing three mechanisms: demand perception revolution, multiplier effect activation, and addressing livelihood pain points [2][3] - The demand perception revolution involves constructing micro-demand maps based on real-time market information, significantly enhancing policy precision [2] - The multiplier effect reveals that single-point subsidies can activate chain consumption reactions, transforming fiscal resources into catalysts for economic activity [2] Group 3 - The political bureau's emphasis on cultivating new growth points in service consumption aims to break traditional service industry barriers and reconstruct consumption scenarios [4][5] - Healthy competition among platforms is identified as a key driver for reshaping market boundaries, releasing dormant demand, and enhancing service accessibility across urban and rural areas [5][6] - The competition is shifting focus towards cultural value and emotional experiences, moving service offerings from mere functionality to meaningful creation [5] Group 4 - Service consumption is projected to become a primary engine of national economic growth, with the service sector's value added accounting for 56.7% of GDP in 2024 [7] - The service sector's growth potential is highlighted as a critical breakthrough for expanding domestic demand, with significant contributions to employment and economic stability [7][8] - The rise of service consumption is seen as a necessary trend in China's economic development phase transition and structural upgrade, supported by favorable policies and platform competition [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the importance of "vigorously developing service consumption" and proposed the establishment of "service consumption and elderly re-loan," a targeted policy financial tool to stimulate consumption in the context of a complex external environment [1] Group 1: Service Consumption Growth - The enhancement of service consumption is a necessary trend linked to the upgrade of consumption structure, with service consumption becoming increasingly significant as per international experience [2] - In 2024, China's per capita GDP is projected to reach $13,800, indicating a rapid growth phase for service consumption, although the penetration rate remains lower compared to developed countries [2] - In 2024 and Q1 2025, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure to total per capita consumption expenditure is expected to be 46.11% and 43.39%, respectively, highlighting substantial growth potential [2] Group 2: Current Demand and Consumption Trends - There is still an issue of insufficient endogenous demand, but the trend of service consumption leading consumption upgrades is becoming evident [3] - In 2024, service retail sales are expected to grow by 6.2% year-on-year, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points, while Q1 2025 service retail sales are projected to grow by 5%, exceeding goods retail growth by 0.4 percentage points [3] - Sectors related to consumption structure upgrades, such as education, culture, and entertainment, are experiencing faster growth, with new industries like cultural tourism and low-altitude economy emerging as growth highlights [3] Group 3: Policy Implementation and Financial Tools - The establishment of "service consumption and elderly re-loan" is a proactive measure in response to the complex economic situation, aiming to leverage financial tools to unlock service consumption potential and achieve multiple goals of stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and benefiting people's livelihoods [3] - The re-loan will be provided at a rate of 1.75% to commercial banks, with actual financing costs for related enterprises potentially reduced to 2%-3%, creating a transmission chain from "low-cost funds to service supply expansion to consumption demand release" [4] - The focus of re-loan should be on areas such as elderly communities, cultural tourism facilities, and sports events, aligning with the issuance of government bonds [4] Group 4: Supply-Side Structural Reform and Innovation - There is a need to optimize service supply by breaking down entry barriers and simplifying approval processes in sectors like cultural tourism, healthcare, and private elderly care [5] - Expanding supply in health, elderly care, and childcare services is essential, along with integrating consumption scenarios with credit [5] - New consumption scenarios driven by technologies like 5G and AI, such as silver-haired tourism and smart elderly care, should be explored to enhance consumer experience and create sustainable consumption power [5] Group 5: Consumer Environment and Income Security - Improving the service consumption environment requires the removal of restrictive measures and the promotion of "convenient living circles" [5] - It is crucial to eliminate unreasonable consumption restrictions, such as car purchase limits, and implement paid leave systems to unlock tourism consumption potential [5] - Enhancing consumer capacity and expectations, along with increasing minimum wage standards and issuing service consumption vouchers in key cities, are vital for boosting consumer willingness [5]