近期稀土市场中，氧化钇（Y2O3）的价格出现了爆发式增长。 此外，工业电机能效升级、空调电梯节能改造等，也需要更换稀土永磁电机，进一步加大需求缺口。 供给紧张推动价格上涨 具体来看，目前，全球氧化钇市场价格约126美元/公斤，相比2024年底涨幅逼近1500%，创下历史新 高；欧洲氧化钇市场价格约270美元/公斤，相比2024年底涨幅超过4400%；中国氧化钇市场价格约 49000元/吨，年内涨幅约16%至28%。另有金属镨钕、氧化钕、金属钕、金属镨等轻稀土市场价格走势 上涨。 在该消息刺激下，11月20日，A股稀土板块上涨，截至午间收盘，成分股争光股份（301092.SZ）涨 停，久吾高科（300631.SZ）上涨8.01%，广晟有色（600359.SH）上涨4.66%，中矿资源（002738.SZ） 上涨4.44%。 需求缺口持续扩大 从多领域分析来看，11月轻稀土价格上涨，核心是需求端新能源、风电等多领域爆发式增长，叠加供给 端受配额、进口等因素约束，再加上库存见底与政策管控加持，形成了供需错配的局面。 在需求端，首当其冲的是新能源汽车。轻稀土是钕铁硼永磁材料的核心原料，而永磁同步电机在新能源 车中渗透 ...

2025年11月20日盘中，稀土板块盘中强势上扬，截至10:19，中证稀土产业指数强势上涨1.63%，成分股 盛新锂能上涨9.99%，广晟有色上涨6.72%，格林美上涨4.10%，科力远，中钢天源等个股跟涨。 消息面上，11月19日国内轻稀土市场价格走势上涨，金属镨钕价格为67万元/吨，镨钕氧化物价格上涨 2500元/吨至54.25万元/吨，氧化钕价格上涨2500元/吨至58.75万元/吨，金属钕价格上涨5000元/吨至70万 元/吨，金属镨价格上涨5000元/吨至73万元/吨，氧化镨价格上涨2500元/吨至55.5万元/吨，国内轻稀土 价格走势上涨。 国投证券表示，今年7~9月磁材出口均同比正增长，未来国内外需求增长是趋势。我们认为更应该关注 稀土供给端的变化，白名单制度或年内落地，预计推动稀土价格新一轮上涨，北稀和包钢公告上调四季 度稀土精矿价格，看好后市价格上涨。 场外投资者还可以通过稀土ETF嘉实联接基金（011036）把握稀土投资机遇。 数据显示，截至2025年10月31日，中证稀土产业指数前十大权重股分别为北方稀土、卧龙电驱、领益智 造、中国稀土、厦门钨业、中国铝业、盛和资源、金风科技、包钢股份、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for rare earth elements in emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and low-altitude economy continues to grow, leading to a supply-demand mismatch and an upward trend in prices for major rare earth products [1]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of September 2, the average price of praseodymium metal was reported at 806,250 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 12,500 CNY/ton; neodymium averaged 788,750 CNY/ton, also up by 12,500 CNY/ton; and dysprosium averaged 2,037,500 CNY/ton, rising by 10,000 CNY/ton [1]. - The price increase in rare earth products has attracted significant capital into the rare earth sector, with the rare earth ETF (516780) showing a notable increase in trading volume [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The rare earth ETF (516780) closely tracks the CSI Rare Earth Industry Index, which includes companies involved in rare earth mining, processing, trading, and applications. The top five constituent stocks are Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Lingyi Technology, Shenghe Resources, and Wolong Electric Drive [2]. - In the context of rising rare earth prices due to supply-demand imbalance, the rare earth ETF and its linked funds are expected to be quality tools for investors looking to capitalize on opportunities in the rare earth sector [2]. Group 3: Fund Management - The manager of the rare earth ETF, Huatai-PB Fund, has over 18 years of experience in ETF operations, with industry-leading index investment management capabilities and tracking error [2].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium-neodymium alloy, and praseodymium-neodymium oxide have significantly increased, driven by tight supply and strong demand in the light rare earth market [1] Price Changes - Neodymium oxide price reached 650,000 yuan/ton, up 18.18% from the beginning of the month [1] - Metallic neodymium price reached 777,500 yuan/ton, up 17.80% from the beginning of the month [1] - Praseodymium oxide price reached 642,500 yuan/ton, up 18.43% from the beginning of the month [1] - Metallic praseodymium price reached 765,000 yuan/ton, up 14.18% from the beginning of the month [1] - Praseodymium-neodymium alloy price reached 762,500 yuan/ton, up 15.97% from the beginning of the month [1] - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide price reached 625,000 yuan/ton, up 20.19% from the beginning of the month [1] Market Dynamics - The domestic light rare earth market is experiencing tight supply, with macro news indicating a potential further tightening of the praseodymium-neodymium product supply-demand balance [1] - The booming development of industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances is driving a significant increase in orders for downstream magnetic material manufacturers in the fourth quarter [1] - Positive procurement sentiment among magnetic material companies is contributing to the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the light rare earth market [1] Long-term Trends - The long-term growth trend in end-user demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, and wind turbines remains unchanged, suggesting a sustained increase in the penetration rate of high-performance neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets [1] - The light rare earth market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry for 2025 [2] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry has experienced a qualitative change in profit quality, with significant growth in revenue and net profit over the past decade [4][19] - The industry is expected to continue benefiting from a tightening supply-demand structure, interest rate cuts, and favorable policy cycles [5][10] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance and Profit Growth - From 2015 to 2024, the non-ferrous metals industry achieved total revenue of 3,407.5 billion yuan, a 205% increase over ten years, and a net profit of 138.4 billion yuan, a staggering 4,691% increase [4][19] - The net profit surged from 15.7 billion yuan in 2019 to 181.8 billion yuan in 2022, marking a 1,062% increase during the global quantitative easing period [4][19] - In 2024, revenue growth accelerated to 5.86%, and net profit growth improved to 1.77%, compared to 2023's revenue growth of 1.5% and a net profit decline of 25.21% [4][19] 2. Price Trends in 2024 - Industrial metal prices generally increased due to a tight supply-demand structure, with zinc leading the rise at 20.1%, while nickel prices fell by 2.5% due to oversupply [5][31] - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with gold prices rising by 27.8% and silver by 24.8% [5][33] - Small metals exhibited mixed price movements, with cobalt prices dropping by 23.6% and antimony prices increasing by 72.6% [5][34] 3. Profitability and Industry Concentration - The profitability of the non-ferrous metals industry improved, with gross margins for industrial and precious metals rising to 10.03% and 12.95%, respectively [6][50] - The concentration of profits has increased, with the top ten companies accounting for 64% of net profits, up from 45% [6][60] - The top ten companies' net profits grew by 39%, significantly outpacing the overall industry net profit decline of 1% [6][60] 4. Fund Allocation Trends - The fund allocation in the non-ferrous metals sector reached a historical high of 5.43% in Q1 2024, before dropping to 2.85% by Q4 due to economic weakness and declining demand [7][9] - In Q1 2025, the allocation increased again to 4.34%, driven primarily by industrial and precious metals [9][10] 5. Outlook for 2025 - The copper sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with a significant reduction in long-term contract prices [10] - Gold is anticipated to benefit from heightened geopolitical risks and increased central bank purchases, leading to a sustained high demand [10] - The rare earth sector is showing signs of improvement due to supply-side reforms and increased demand from new energy and military sectors [10][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - In February 2025, the rare earth permanent magnet industry saw a significant increase of 13%, outperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 10.15 percentage points. The industry's valuation (TTM P/E) rose from 81.66x at the beginning of the month to 92.28x, ending the month at the 98.6% historical high percentile [4][19] - The prices of rare earth raw materials have shown a notable increase, with the average price of mixed rare earth carbonate rising by 11.16% month-on-month to 24,900 CNY/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 12.16% [5] - The demand in downstream sectors remains robust, particularly in the air conditioning and new energy vehicle markets, despite a temporary decline in production due to the Spring Festival [11][12] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The industry achieved a relative return of 4% over one month, 2% over three months, and 38% over twelve months, with absolute returns of 7%, 4%, and 51% respectively [3] Raw Material Prices - Significant month-on-month increases in prices for various rare earth materials were observed, including: - Mixed rare earth carbonate: +11.16% to 24,900 CNY/ton - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide: +6.55% to 435,000 CNY/ton - Dysprosium oxide: +3.99% to 1,715 CNY/kg [5][6][7] Downstream Demand - The air conditioning sector experienced a production decline of 4.2% year-on-year in January 2025, attributed to the Spring Festival timing, but sales remained strong with an 8.7% increase in total sales [11] - The new energy vehicle sector continued to thrive, with production increasing by 28.96% year-on-year in January 2025 [12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while the industry faces overcapacity and competitive pressures, the demand in key sectors like air conditioning and new energy vehicles provides a solid foundation for future growth. The current valuation levels are high, indicating potential overvaluation risks, thus maintaining the "Overweight" rating [13]