消息面上，俄乌局势动荡扰动油价，隔夜国际原油期货结算价涨超2%。WTI原油期货2月合约涨 2.36%，布伦特原油期货2月合约涨2.14%。综合央视新闻等媒体报道，当地时间12月29日，美国总统特 朗普在佛罗里达州海湖庄园与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡开始会晤前透露，他当天早晨与俄罗斯总统普京通 电话时，被对方告知乌克兰无人机袭击了普京一处官邸。 智通财经APP获悉，石油股早盘上扬，截至发稿，中海油(00883)涨3.68%，报21.4港元；中石油(00857) 涨2.91%，报8.5港元；中石化(00386)涨1.31%，报4.65港元。 光大证券指出，2025年前三季度，"三桶油"克服油价震荡下行、炼油毛利收窄、化工品需求恢复缓慢等 困难，实现了稳健的业绩和现金流。25H2，油价下行的不利影响逐渐减弱，叠加三季度以来中国石 油、中国石化、中国海油在油价下行期的投资价值逐渐被市场认可，"三桶油"股价均有所修复。展望 2026年，"三桶油"将继续维持高资本开支，不断加强天然气市场开拓，加快中下游炼化业务转型，有望 实现穿越油价周期的长期成长。 ...

石油股早盘上扬，截至发稿，中海油(00883)涨3.68%，报21.4港元；中石油(00857)涨2.91%，报8.5港 元；中石化(00386)涨1.31%，报4.65港元。 光大证券指出，2025年前三季度，"三桶油"克服油价震荡下行、炼油毛利收窄、化工品需求恢复缓慢等 困难，实现了稳健的业绩和现金流。25H2，油价下行的不利影响逐渐减弱，叠加三季度以来中国石油 （601857）、中国石化（600028）、中国海油（600938）在油价下行期的投资价值逐渐被市场认 可，"三桶油"股价均有所修复。展望2026年，"三桶油"将继续维持高资本开支，不断加强天然气市场开 拓，加快中下游炼化业务转型，有望实现穿越油价周期的长期成长。 消息面上，俄乌局势动荡扰动油价，隔夜国际原油期货结算价涨超2%。WTI原油期货2月合约涨 2.36%，布伦特原油期货2月合约涨2.14%。综合央视新闻等媒体报道，当地时间12月29日，美国总统特 朗普在佛罗里达州海湖庄园与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡开始会晤前透露，他当天早晨与俄罗斯总统普京通 电话时，被对方告知乌克兰无人机袭击了普京一处官邸。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in the given content - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined in the given content - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not clearly defined in the given content Core Views - The supply - side contraction has not led to a cyclical inflection point in oil prices, and the rebound space of oil prices is still limited despite the overnight rebound [2] - The logic of high - sulfur being weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently strong due to supply - side fluctuations, but there is still medium - term supply pressure. High - sulfur fuel oil's supply pattern is expected to be loose in the medium term [2] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, demand is seasonally weakening, and the medium - and long - term fundamentals are bearish [3] - The import cost of international liquefied petroleum gas is expected to rise in December, and the supply - demand relationship is tightening marginally, so LPG is expected to be volatile and bullish [3] Summaries by Relevant Categories Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the SC01 contract rising 0.48% during the day. WTI is sensitive to geopolitical fluctuations above the US shale oil marginal production cost of $50/barrel. As the US sanctions on Russian oil take effect on November 21, major Indian buyers have suspended purchasing Russian crude for December delivery, and Trump mentioned sanctions legislation against countries trading with Russia and Iran. However, the API inventory in the US increased by 4.448 million barrels last week, limiting the oil price rebound space [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently strong due to supply - side issues. Overseas refinery operations are unstable, the Kuwait Azur refinery has no clear restart date, Kuwait's fuel oil shipments are low, and the conversion of low - sulfur export quotas to refined oil in China is 490,000 tons. The end - of - year export pressure in China has eased marginally, and the fourth - quarter shipping fuel peak season and improved Sino - US trade relations have boosted the fundamentals. But the planned maintenance of the Dangote refinery's RFOC unit in late December may increase low - sulfur shipments, and medium - term supply pressure exists. High - sulfur fuel oil: Russia's shipments to Asia increased by 0.9% to 1.31 million tons in November, but the actual exports after November 21 are uncertain. With the Middle East's stable production increase and the end of the power - generation peak season, local exports are expected to increase, and the feedstock demand may decline after the new quota issuance, leading to a loose medium - term supply pattern [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to - $11/barrel, weakening the cost support. The weekly shipment volume has decreased month - on - month since November and is at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The commercial inventory destocking has slowed down, and the year - on - year increase in social inventory has expanded since late October. The demand for the "14th Five - Year Plan" end - year project rush has been falsified, and the subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening rule, with a bearish impact on BU in the medium and long term [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The expected import cost of international liquefied petroleum gas will increase in December. The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the downstream chemical enterprises' enthusiasm for starting up, and the significant cooling in many places has improved the combustion - end demand. The inventory rates of refineries and ports have decreased. The marginal tightening of supply - demand has boosted LPG to be seen as volatile and bullish [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: One red star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [5][6] - Fuel oil: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Asphalt: Three green stars, suggesting a clearer downward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] Core Viewpoints - The oil price has continued to show a weak and volatile performance since the end of October. The supply-side contraction-induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and a weak and volatile judgment on crude oil is maintained [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term, but the medium-term supply pattern tends to be loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but medium-term supply pressure still exists [2] - The cost support for asphalt has been continuously weakening, the demand is expected to follow the seasonal weakening pattern, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals have a bearish impact on BU [3] - The supply and demand of liquefied petroleum gas have tightened marginally, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since the end of October, the oil price has continued to show a weak and volatile performance. Geopolitical risks have boosted the oil price, but the rebound height has always been limited [2] - According to the monthly reports of the three major institutions, considering the suspension of production increases by OPEC+ in the first quarter of next year and the strict implementation of production cut compensation, the global oil market will have a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively [2] - The supply-side contraction-induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and a weak and volatile judgment on crude oil is maintained [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term. The subsequent actual exports of Russia still have uncertainties, but the medium-term supply pattern tends to be loose [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but the possible increase in low-sulfur shipping volume caused by the planned maintenance of the RFCC unit of the Kaigute refinery at the end of December needs attention, and medium-term supply pressure still exists [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to -$11 per barrel, and the cost support has been continuously weakening [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has decreased month-on-month and is also at a low level in the same period of the past four years [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" end-year rush demand expectation has been falsified, and the subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening pattern. The medium- and long-term fundamentals have a bearish impact on BU [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The increase in propane discount supports the import landed cost [4] - The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start operations, and the demand on the combustion side has improved [4] - The supply and demand of liquefied petroleum gas have tightened marginally, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: One red star, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading opportunities on the market [5][6] - Fuel oil: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Asphalt: Three green stars, meaning a clearer downward trend and relatively appropriate short-selling opportunities [5][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] Report's Core View - The oil market is facing different supply and demand situations, with crude oil expected to be volatile and weak, while fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas are expected to be bullish, and asphalt is expected to be bearish [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since late October, oil prices have continued to show a volatile and weak performance, with geopolitical risks providing some support but limited rebound [2] - According to the three major institutions' monthly reports, considering OPEC+'s suspension of production increases and strict implementation of production cut compensation in the first quarter of next year, the global oil market will have a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day this year and 3.31 million barrels per day next year [2] - The supply-side contraction has not yet led to a cyclical inflection point in oil prices, and a volatile and weak outlook is maintained [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil is currently supported by geopolitical factors, but the mid-term supply pattern is expected to be loose as the Middle East increases production and the power generation peak season ends [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but mid-term supply pressure still exists, especially considering the planned maintenance of the RFCC unit at the Kert refinery in late December [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to -$11 per barrel, weakening cost support [3] - Weekly shipments have decreased month-on-month since November and are at a low level in the same period in the past four years [3] - Commercial inventory depletion has continued to slow down, and the year-on-year increase in social inventory has widened since the end of October [3] - The expected rush demand in the "14th Five-Year Plan" has been disproven, and subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening pattern, with negative signals for year-end demand compared to last year [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The increase in propane discount supports the import cost [4] - The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start production, and the demand for combustion has improved due to the significant cooling in many places [4] - The inventory rates of refineries and ports have decreased, and the supply and demand have tightened marginally, leading to a bullish outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - Oil stocks are experiencing an upward trend, with significant gains reported for major companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec, following OPEC+'s announcement of increased production and the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - As of the report, CNOOC (00883) rose by 3.68% to HKD 21.96, PetroChina (00857) increased by 2.94% to HKD 8.76, and Sinopec (00386) gained 2.1% to HKD 4.38 [1] - The market sentiment has improved due to OPEC+'s decision to pause production increases in Q1 2026, which was beyond market expectations, alongside the effects of U.S. sanctions on Russia [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Despite the positive sentiment, there are still concerns regarding weak demand and oversupply, leading to expectations of oil prices remaining volatile in the short term [1] - The "Three Oil Giants" (CNOOC, PetroChina, Sinopec) are focusing on enhancing reserves and production while strengthening cost control to navigate external uncertainties [1] - The production growth plans for 2025 are as follows: PetroChina aims for a 1.6% increase, Sinopec targets a 1.5% increase, and CNOOC plans a 5.9% increase in oil and gas equivalent production [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The "Three Oil Giants" are accelerating their transformation in the midstream and downstream refining businesses, promoting low-cost "oil conversion" and high-value "oil-to-specialty" initiatives [1] - The sales divisions are actively transitioning towards becoming comprehensive energy service providers, integrating oil, gas, hydrogen, and electricity [1] - The chemical business is steadily increasing the proportion of high-value-added products, indicating a long-term growth potential that can withstand oil price cycles [1]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and will pause its production increase plan from January to March 2026, reflecting a balance between stabilizing oil prices and increasing production [4][5]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - The decision to pause production increases indicates OPEC+'s effort to balance oil price stabilization amid low demand expectations and rising inventory risks for Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 [5]. - Since 2025, OPEC+ has significantly increased production to penalize overproducing member countries and capture global market share, with production rising by 2.39 million barrels per day from December 2024 to September 2025 [5]. - OPEC+ has reiterated that production levels will be determined based on market changes, and the pause in production increases is expected to alleviate concerns regarding oil supply [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - The current oil market faces a supply-demand surplus, and OPEC+'s decision to slow production increases may help mitigate this surplus risk [6]. - The IEA projects a demand growth of 700,000 barrels per day for 2026, but this growth is significantly lower than historical trends due to a sluggish macroeconomic environment and the electrification of transportation [6]. - On the supply side, the IEA anticipates a global oil supply increase of 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026, with both non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ contributing 1.2 million barrels per day each [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Oil Prices - Recent escalations in sanctions against Russia by the US and EU are expected to provide ongoing geopolitical risk premiums that support oil prices [7][8]. - The US Treasury has blacklisted two Russian state oil companies, and the EU has implemented a comprehensive ban on Russian LNG, indicating a tightening of energy sanctions [7][8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Chinese Oil Companies - The "Big Three" Chinese oil companies are focusing on increasing reserves and production while enhancing cost control to navigate the new cycle of oil price volatility [9]. - China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation are expected to see production growth rates of 1.6%, 1.5%, and 5.9% respectively in 2025 [9]. - These companies are also transitioning their refining businesses to low-cost and high-value operations, positioning themselves for long-term growth despite oil price fluctuations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company is positioned as a leading integrated oil and gas enterprise in China, focusing on stabilizing oil production and increasing natural gas output to enhance its competitive edge during oil price cycles [1] Group 1: Natural Gas Business - The company is actively promoting cost reduction and volume increase in its natural gas business, achieving a steady growth rate of approximately 5% in natural gas production over the past decade [1][3] - The optimization of the imported gas resource structure is ongoing, with an expected increase of 5 billion cubic meters in pipeline gas supply after the completion of the China-Russia East Line in December 2024 [1] - A projected decrease of $10 per barrel in oil prices could lead to a reduction of approximately 18 billion yuan in the company's imported gas procurement costs, enhancing its profitability resilience [1][3] Group 2: International Expansion - The company has secured a 70% stake in the Suriname 14/15 block, which is located in the "golden belt" of the Suriname-Guyana basin, expected to be a new growth engine for oil and gas production [2] - Despite potential downward pressure on oil prices due to global supply dynamics and the expansion of low-cost production in South America and Africa, the long-term price floor is anticipated to remain above $60 per barrel [2] Group 3: Olefins and Ethylene Production - The company is experiencing a recovery in the olefins market, with a focus on self-sufficient ethane supply, which is expected to provide a competitive advantage [2] - Current ethylene production capacity stands at 1.4 million tons per year, with additional planned capacity of 2.4 million tons per year from the Tarim Phase II and Hohhot projects, all relying on fully self-sufficient ethane [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 158.5 billion, 161.7 billion, and 168.5 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.7%, 3.0%, and 1.9% respectively from previous estimates [4] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected at 0.87, 0.88, and 0.92 yuan, with target prices set at 10.01 yuan for A-shares and 8.60 HKD for H-shares, maintaining an "overweight" rating [4]