法国CAC 40指数跌幅扩大至1.5%；欧元/美元5分钟内下跌约30点，报1.1675；法国与德国10年期国债收 益率利差扩大至86个基点，为一月以来首次。据央视，当地时间10月6日，法国总理勒科尔尼向总统马 克龙递交辞呈，马克龙已接受辞呈。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The French government led by Prime Minister François Bayrou is facing increasing opposition, with three major opposition parties indicating they will vote against a confidence motion, potentially leading to the government's downfall as early as next month [1][3]. Political Situation - The political crisis has caused market volatility, with the French CAC 40 index dropping over 2% for two consecutive days, and the spread between French and German 10-year bond yields nearing its highest point since April, reflecting renewed investor concerns about France's fiscal situation [1][4]. - President Macron is in a difficult position with limited effective solutions, including appointing a new prime minister or dissolving parliament, both of which carry significant risks [3][4]. Government's Fiscal Plan - The government initiated a confidence vote to gain parliamentary support for a fiscal plan that includes €44 billion (approximately $51 billion) in spending cuts and tax increases, which Bayrou believes is crucial to avoid a fiscal crisis [4][6]. - The proposed plan also includes controversial measures such as the cancellation of two public holidays, which has faced strong opposition [4]. Economic Context - Unlike other Eurozone countries, France's public finance recovery has been slow, with the National Audit Office criticizing the government for being overly optimistic about tax revenues and economic growth while failing to control rising expenditures [6]. - France's debt interest payments are projected to exceed €66 billion this year, surpassing spending in other sectors like education, and are expected to rise to €75 billion by 2026 [6]. Market Reaction - The yield on France's 10-year government bonds has reached the highest level in the Eurozone, even surpassing countries like Greece and Portugal, indicating a significant increase in borrowing costs [8]. - The CAC 40 index has declined over 4% since Macron's unexpected announcement of early parliamentary elections last June, contrasting with a 6% increase in the broader European Stoxx 600 index during the same period [9].

Group 1 - The European Stoxx 50 index declined by 1.2% [1] - The German DAX index fell by 0.85% [1] - The UK FTSE 100 index decreased by 0.8% [1] - The French CAC 40 index dropped by over 2% [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability for September is nearing certainty, with market expectations rising to approximately 95% after recent employment data [5][6] - Global stock markets experienced an uptick, with U.S. stock futures rising over 0.2%, and the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index increasing by 0.7%, led by South Korea [1][2][7] - Major European indices opened higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.6%, and the German DAX also rising by 0.6% [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury yields saw a slight increase, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising by over 1 basis point, and the 2-year yield increasing by more than 2 basis points [2] - Gold prices remained stable, hovering around two-week highs, while silver prices dipped slightly [3] - Oil prices stabilized after three consecutive days of decline, supported by Trump's threat of imposing 100% secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers [4] Group 3 - Despite the recent highs in U.S. stock markets, major Wall Street firms, including Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, warned of potential short-term corrections in the S&P 500 index due to high valuations and weakening economic data [8]

Group 1 - European stock markets have seen an increase, with the German DAX index rising over 1% [1] - The French CAC 40 index has increased by nearly 1% [1] - The Euro Stoxx 50 index has gained 0.77% [1] - The UK FTSE 100 index has risen by 0.3% [1]

Group 1 - The German DAX index fell by 1.6% [1] - The UK FTSE 100 index decreased by 0.6% [1] - The French CAC 40 index declined by 1.2% [1]