...... 第一条建议，送外卖的电瓶车先别扔。 今天A股和港股的科技板块，都迎来了大跌，如果要找原因的话，宏观和行业层面，都有可以说道说道的。 宏观层面，因为近期欧洲（法国）和小日子的政坛震荡，导致美元指数"被动"走强，昨晚， 自8月1日以来，美元指数首次向上突破99 ，这导致 降息预期+弱美元的宏观假设，有所变化，对非美市场不是什么好事情，今天恒生指数跌了1.7%，而日经225也跌超1%，是其9月1日以来，首次 跌超1个点。 行业层面的利空，其实主要也和宏观有关，11月10日，也就是1个月后，中美要再次商贸会谈，因此，大家近期也能看到，两边都在加紧搞事 情，收集筹码，昨晚提到的咱们对 锂电 的出口管制，就导致今天锂电板块领跌A股和港股。 另外，昨天提到的，静态市盈率超300倍后，股票融资时的折算率归零的规定，加剧了部分杠杆资金的恐慌情绪（因为下跌导致市盈率变化，今 晚，部分券商又对部分个股采取了上调折算率的操作，如果情绪配合，可能导致反弹回来），导致今天在韩国的两家芯片龙头企业涨的飞起的同 时，A股和H股 芯片 却继续大暴跌。 而且，有时候，悲观情绪，会带来更多的悲观情绪，比如，今天 机器人 板块的两则利 ...

投稿人：小天（化名），以下为投稿内容，所有内容没有作任何修改。 相信相随同步伐 私域跟车一起发 最近博格在私域(XQ)里发了征集稿，毕竟私域已经运营快10年了。 要求：不限时间，不限字数，不限金额 主要是不同时点加入私域的朋友，一起聊聊投资感受，也是对自己投资的一个回顾总结。 2023年4月份，某天网上看到推送的博格照片——身着宝石蓝西服的那张全身照。 一、 "听风"买基、"追星"买基，结果就是实实套牢。 我做财务工作，期间也从事过审计、人事工作。尽管我的工作和资金相关，可是并没有管理好家庭财政。 2007夏天，因为听同事和银行的朋友们说买基金赚钱了，所以赶紧跑到邮局，顶着毒日排起了长队，买了我人生第一只基金"中邮核心成长"。 然后就陆陆续续买了朱X企业优选、前X开源新经济、XX医疗创新、XX健康生活、XX转略略转型、XX聚嘉、XX产业精选、XX长城绩优、XX红利和XX 先进制造等等，有亏有赚。 其中最失败的两支分别是：XX领先股票和XX卓远。给我极大安慰的是XX红利定投了10年，盈利翻倍。（其实我也清楚，基金的盈利来自10年的定投， 并不代表我有选基能力。）这时我放松了警惕，加大了投入，2015年、2020 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing growth ("small stocks") and stability ("large stocks") in investment strategies to navigate through different market cycles effectively [5][20]. Group 1: Historical Perspective on Investment Strategies - The distinction between "old stocks" and "new stocks" is not about superiority; both serve as tools in an investment portfolio, with their effectiveness varying by market conditions [6][7]. - Historical data shows that while growth stocks may outperform during bull markets, stable dividend-paying stocks can provide consistent returns over the long term, mitigating risks during downturns [11][14]. - The performance of various indices from 2013 to 2025 illustrates that while growth stocks can have significant short-term gains, they also experience substantial drawdowns, whereas dividend low-volatility stocks offer steadier returns [12][13]. Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is characterized by higher volatility and faster rhythms, making high dividend and low volatility strategies particularly valuable [15]. - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index employs strict rules to ensure sustainable dividends and avoid pitfalls like "dividend traps" [17][18]. - Over the past three to seven years, the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, demonstrating its effectiveness in providing stable returns [19]. Group 3: A+H Market Strategy - The core value of low-volatility dividend stocks lies in their defensive role within a portfolio, providing stability and peace of mind for investors [21]. - The A-share market's low-volatility dividend ETF has proven its defensive value over the past decade, while the Hong Kong counterpart offers new opportunities for investors [21][22]. - A balanced approach combining both defensive and growth-oriented assets is essential for long-term investment success [22][24].

必须承认，基本面在慢慢地变好。M1增速延续改善，从去年8月至今已回升一年。历史经验表明，M1反弹通常会领先企业盈利0.5-1年。再看明晟中国指 数，已连续三年盈利增长对股市产生正向贡献。但目前市场的情绪抢跑基本面太远了，我说几个数据你感受一下。至今年9月24日，牛市启动一周年，中证 全指的估值从14.7倍，拉升到最高21.5倍，涨幅接近50%。A股中1435只个股股价翻倍。换句话说，市场中平均每4只股票，就有一只翻倍股。2019至2021年 是创业板牛市，但过去一年的创业板，大概能齐平那三年牛市的涨幅。 上周五下午三点整，中芯国际，阿里巴巴，京东，宁德时代等的下跌，精确到秒。牛市多急跌，正常。A股这里，九月以来还在高歌猛进的只剩下科创 50etf，创业板etf与恒生科技了。上证50，中证1000，中证2000，港股新消费，生物医药本月至今都是跌的。就算最火热的科技，也主要是题材发酵，比如 周三的阿里云栖大会，周四小米谈造芯，市场暂未找到主心骨。资金只能在高位热点和低位板块之间做切换。 当时，斯大林懵了，咱军突然后撤几百公里，领土都不要了？我军的军人荣誉何在？ 德军也懵了，你吖突然跑没影了，害我军追了几百公里， ...

2025 年 09 月 28 日 A 股大牛市：一份全面的体检报告 在伴随本轮 A 股大牛市不断上涨的过程中，市场基本符合我们在三季度的观点 预判。对于大盘指数：我们较早鲜明提出"牛且慢"的慢牛呼吁，并反复强调： 1、站上 3800 点已基本符合我们对于本轮流动性牛市的心理预期，后续持以跟 踪态度，但眼下对于短期大盘指数进一步向上空间已经难以合理预估。 2、本轮 A 股大盘指数向上空间真正打开需市场从流动性牛-基本面牛-新旧动 能转化牛实现"三头牛"兑现转变，这是未来逐步验证的过程。" huangwz1@essence.com.cn 第一，从宏观定位层面，全 A 总市值和流通市值已创历史新高，市场体量远超 历次牛市，但流通市值/GDP 与流通市值/M2 的比值仍在中低区间，居民存款证 券化率不足 60%，明显低于 2015 年接近 100%的极端水平。这说明本轮行情更 多体现为"体量扩张下的理性上涨"。 第二，从交易热度层面，换手率和上涨天数占比均未进入历史高位，心理线指 标虽回到 63%左右，但仍低于 2007 年、2015 年 70%的极端值，显示市场赚钱 效应处于逐步加强的状态。同时，股价创新高股票占比 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, which is expected to create a more favorable external environment for Chinese assets, enhancing their attractiveness [2] - Multiple institutions, including Invesco and Fidelity International, express optimism about investment opportunities in non-US markets, particularly in China, Japan, and Europe, following the Fed's rate cut [2] - Emerging market equities are viewed as having good investment value, with current valuations being only one-third of developed markets, supported by a weaker dollar and easing monetary policies in the Asia-Pacific region [2] Group 2 - The easing of external constraints is expected to enhance the People's Bank of China's operational flexibility in monetary policy tools, such as MLF/LPR and structural instruments [3] - As the US economy shows signs of weakening and the Fed's independence comes under scrutiny, a gradual shift to a rate-cutting cycle is anticipated, which may lead to a significant increase in foreign capital inflow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [4] - Key investment themes identified by Manulife include high-growth sectors like AI and robotics, sectors benefiting directly from liquidity easing, and industries with improving fundamentals due to policy changes, such as power equipment and chemicals [4]

以下文章来源于懒人养基 ，作者懒人养基 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：懒人养基 懒人养基 . 雪球21年度十大新锐用户、22年度基金影响力用户，私企业主，经济学硕士，《基金投资全攻略》作者。早期靠创 业获取主动收入，从17年开始，逐步将经营产生的余钱、闲钱，几乎全部逢低买入权益基金，从赚取主动收入慢慢 向赚取被动收入过渡。价值投资践行者 （ 数据来源 ： Choice ） 这一表现背后 ， 是多重利好因素的共振 。 从外部环境看 ， 美联储降息预期升温 ， 全球流动性预期宽松 ， 利好港股整体流动性 。 而从内部因素分析 ， AI 浪潮持续席卷科技领域 ， 国内科技企业在大模型 、 云 计算等前沿技术上不断突破 ， 核心科技企业因此成为受益者 ， 这些成分股的出色表现有力地推动了三大指 数的攀升 。 投资者非常关心 ， 这三大指数有何异同 ？ 谁的投资价值更高 ？ 今天就来聊聊这个话题 。 01 来源：雪球 9月17日 ， 恒生科技指数 、 港股通科技和中概互联分别大涨4.22% 、 3.27%和3.40% ， ...

（来源同花顺，以上信息为南都·湾财社AI大数据自动生成） ETF18日午间收盘涨跌不一，科创半导体ETF鹏华（589020）领涨6.90%，半导体材料ETF（562590）涨 6.65%，半导体设备ETF基金（159327）涨6.53%，稀有金属ETF基金（561800）领跌1.96%，工业有色 ETF（560860）跌1.83%，黄金股票ETF（159321）跌1.76%。截至目前，ETF两市成交额报2971.40亿 元，分类型来看，股票型ETF成交额1261.51亿元，债券型ETF成交额880.16亿元，货币型ETF成交额 224.64亿元，商品型ETF成交额37.17亿元，QDII型ETF成交额567.92亿元。其中，成交额最高的非货币 型ETF分别是恒生科技（513130）、华夏恒生科技ETF(qdii)（513180）、华夏恒生互联网科技业 ETF(qdii)（513330），成交额分别为71.33亿元、71.31亿元、70.02亿元。 ...

Group 1 - The ETF market showed mixed performance on the 17th, with the Hang Seng Internet Technology ETF (159202) leading gains at 5.16% [2] - The Hang Seng Internet ETF (159688) and the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) also saw significant increases of 4.88% and 4.85% respectively [2] - Conversely, the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) led the declines with a drop of 2.98%, followed by the Gold Stocks ETF (159321) at 2.34% and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (159570) at 2.29% [2] Group 2 - The total trading volume of ETFs reached 4490.22 billion yuan, with stock-type ETFs accounting for 1749.81 billion yuan and bond-type ETFs also at 1749.91 billion yuan [2] - Money market ETFs had a trading volume of 283.49 billion yuan, while commodity-type ETFs recorded 75.50 billion yuan, and QDII-type ETFs reached 631.52 billion yuan [2] - The highest trading volumes among non-money market ETFs were recorded by E Fund CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF (513090) at 156.11 billion yuan, Hang Seng Technology (513130) at 86.14 billion yuan, and Huaxia Hang Seng Internet Technology Industry ETF (QDII) (513330) at 83.33 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the author's decision to liquidate their A-share account and invest in fixed-term financial products, expressing a belief that the market may continue to rise but also a fear of potential losses based on past experiences [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The author believes that the market trend indicates a potential rise above 4000 points, possibly reaching 4500 points, but expresses skepticism based on previous market cycles [1]. - The current bull market has seen a significant increase, with a rise from 2635 to 3870 points, representing a growth of approximately 46.87% [5]. Group 2: Personal Investment Strategy - The author shares their investment history, indicating that they built positions in the Hong Kong technology sector and A-shares, ultimately withdrawing their principal and leaving only profits [1]. - The strategy of liquidating positions to avoid potential losses is emphasized, with the author reflecting on past experiences of losing profits and principal during market downturns [1][3]. Group 3: Timing and Market Behavior - The article highlights the difficulty of timing the market, noting that many investors miss opportunities by selling too early or waiting too long to re-enter [5]. - It is suggested that any exit during a bull market can be seen as a correct decision, as the market's unpredictable nature makes it challenging to sell at peak points [7][11]. Group 4: Psychological Aspects of Investing - The author discusses the psychological impact of market fluctuations on investors, suggesting that emotional responses can lead to poor decision-making [10]. - The importance of maintaining a connection to the market, even with reduced positions, is emphasized to stay informed and engaged [11].