今年的市场特点是方向不确定、事件驱动增强、波动率周期反复，通过量化模型识别波动结构与情绪拐 点，姜炯的团队在震荡市中捕捉到了更稳定的收益机会。"方向往往是偶然的，但波动是必然的。在宏 观不确定性提升的阶段，专注于波动定价和风险暴露管理，比盲目预测方向更能带来稳健收益。"姜炯 对期货日报记者说。 品种上，姜炯的团队主要聚焦科创50、有色金属、黄金、原油、农产品及恒生科技等相关标的。期权方 面，重点布局中证1000、科创50等指数期权，偶尔配合商品期权做互补。"选择这些品种，一方面是基 于基本面的中长期逻辑，比如有色金属受益于全球补库与绿色转型，科创50受益于自主创新政策；另一 方面，我们也看重品种的流动性与波动特征，确保期权策略能有较好的定价与成交效率。"他解释，选 择标的的两个核心标准则是，隐含波动率处于低位、受宏观影响较大，以及受"反内卷"逻辑影响明显。 在入场时机上，他们坚持"基本面定方向，技术面定时机"，期权方面，特别关注市场情绪与波动率位 置。"本质上，我们不做预测型交易，只做逻辑验证后的跟随与保护。"姜炯介绍，识别交易机会依托量 化模型与宏观判断结合的体系，模型部分以波动率结构、量价行为、资金流因子 ...

从成交量上来看，2025年11月24日成交量最大的是恒生互联（513330），成交量为10407.25万份。排名靠前的恒生科技 （513130）、恒指科技（513180）、A500E （512050），成交量分别为9698.71万份、8768.89万份、5106.58万份。 | | | 交量(万份) 净申购金额 | | 中 老 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 513330 | 恒生互联 | 10407.25 | 0.05 | 2.91 | 0.53 | | 513130 | 恒生科技 | 9698.71 | 0.03 | 1.81 | 0.73 | | 513180 | 恒指科技 | 8768.89 | 2.19 | 1.77 | 0.75 | | 512050 | A500E | 5106.58 | 2.62 | 0.18 | 1.12 | | 513120 | HK 创新药 | 4418.62 | 0.04 | 2.38 | 1.33 | | 159740 | 恒生科技 | 4392.90 | 0.02 | 1.81 | 0.73 | | 15933 ...

Group 1 - Public funds have significantly increased their allocation to Hong Kong stocks, with the investment market value reaching 1.362211 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, a 43.09% increase from 951.985 billion yuan at the end of Q2 2025 [1] - The market value of equity and index funds in Hong Kong stocks reached 1.231653 trillion yuan and 701.284 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 45.02% and 73.07% respectively [1] - The surge in public fund holdings in Hong Kong stocks indicates a structural transformation in asset allocation, driven by the attractiveness of technology and value stocks [1] Group 2 - The influx of funds into Hong Kong ETFs is attributed to three main reasons: valuation advantages compared to A-shares, the convenience and low cost of ETF trading, and risk diversification benefits [2] - The top Hong Kong stocks that public funds increased their holdings in include SenseTime-W, Alibaba Health, China Biologic Products, and others, primarily in the information technology and healthcare sectors [2] - A total of 38 cross-border ETFs attracted a net inflow of 49.561 billion yuan in Q3, with a year-to-date net inflow of 72.642 billion yuan as of November 12 [2]

Group 1 - Public funds have significantly increased their allocation to Hong Kong stocks, with the investment market value reaching 1.362211 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, a 43.09% increase from the end of Q2 2025 [1] - The market value of equity and index funds in Hong Kong stocks reached 1.231653 trillion yuan and 701.284 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 45.02% and 73.07% respectively [1] - The surge in public fund holdings indicates a structural transformation in asset allocation, driven by the enhanced attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the technology and banking sectors [1][2] Group 2 - The influx of funds into Hong Kong ETFs is attributed to three main factors: valuation advantages compared to A-shares, trading convenience and low fees of ETFs, and risk diversification benefits [2] - The most favored Hong Kong stocks by public funds include SenseTime-W, Alibaba Health, China Biologic Products, and others, primarily in the information technology and healthcare sectors, aligning with the constituents of the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hong Kong Pharmaceutical Index [2] - A total of 38 cross-border ETFs attracted a net inflow of 49.561 billion yuan in Q3, with a year-to-date net inflow of 72.642 billion yuan as of November 12 [3] Group 3 - The acceleration of fund flows into ETFs is expected to enhance market liquidity and pricing efficiency, supporting the stable development of the Hong Kong stock market [4]

Group 1 - The technology sector indices are currently facing top risks, which will directly impact the performance of the CSI 300 index [1] - Relatively safer assets such as dividend stocks, liquor consumption, and pharmaceuticals are expected to perform better during market adjustments [1] - The Hang Seng Technology index is experiencing increased volatility, but overall support remains, making it suitable for long-term holding [1] Group 2 - A portfolio allocation of 20% in dividend stocks and 10% to 20% in cash can mitigate concerns over market adjustments [2] - Once technology stocks reach a bottom, the plan is to sell low-volatility dividend stocks and cash to invest in technology stock funds [3] Group 3 - High exposure to the Hang Seng Technology, CSI 300, and securities requires careful position management, with recommendations to reduce holdings to manageable levels [4] - Holdings in pharmaceuticals and consumer sectors are expected to perform well in the near future, with a cautionary note on the risks primarily residing in the technology sector [5] Group 4 - The biggest risk currently stems from geopolitical issues, particularly related to Taiwan, suggesting that maintaining 10% to 30% liquidity is advisable to respond to sudden market events [6] - The 5G sector is showing potential head-and-shoulders patterns, indicating possible market reversals [8] - The chip sector has broken below trend lines, which may confirm a top formation [10] - The artificial intelligence sector is also exhibiting potential head-and-shoulders patterns [12]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a rebound last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year and the ChiNext Index leading the gains [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.97 trillion, an increase of 330.3 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - The sectors that saw the most significant gains included storage chips, CPO, and semiconductors, while coal and oil & gas sectors faced declines [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities suggested that the A-share allocation could shift towards a "barbell" strategy, indicating a focus on both high-growth technology sectors and defensive dividend stocks [2] - Citic Securities expressed optimism about the ongoing global trend in energy storage, highlighting a significant increase in domestic energy storage installations projected to reach 300 GWh next year [3] - CICC noted a potential shift in market style, with large-cap growth stocks expected to outperform in the medium term due to supportive macroeconomic conditions and increasing institutional investment in large-cap emerging growth companies [4]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement on October 23 indicates that fund manager He Qi will no longer manage the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 fund due to internal company arrangements, with co-manager Li Qian taking over management responsibilities starting from October 22, 2025 [1] Group 1: Fund Management Changes - He Qi has a background in economics from Shanghai Jiao Tong University and has held various positions at Huatai-PB Fund Management, including senior trader and fund manager [1] - Li Qian holds a master's degree in financial mathematics from the London School of Economics and has been with Huatai-PB Fund Management since March 2015, progressing from assistant researcher to fund manager [2] Group 2: Fund Performance and Structure - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 fund was established on December 30, 2020, with an initial size of 639 million yuan, which grew to 2.333 billion yuan by June 30, 2025 [3] - The fund has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10%, aiming to closely track the performance of the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index with a daily tracking deviation of less than 0.2% and an annualized tracking error of less than 2% [3] Group 3: Performance Metrics - The fund has achieved a return of 30.02% year-to-date, 31.04% over the past year, and 16.39% since inception [4] - Under He Qi's management from December 30, 2020, to the present, the fund's return was 17.34%, outperforming the peer average of 12.63% [4] - The fund has not distributed any dividends since its inception [3]

Trade Tensions and Market Outlook - Current market consensus suggests that a 100% tariff is unlikely to be implemented, with a return to TACO trading expected, making it a matter of time[4] - If the trade war escalates beyond current expectations, technology sectors may experience short-term declines but could recover as market volatility decreases[4] - A barbell strategy focusing on technology (AI/innovative drugs/self-sufficiency) and dividends is recommended for Hong Kong stocks[4] Stock Market Adjustments - Short-term adjustments in U.S. stocks are anticipated due to emotional market fluctuations, but declines are expected to be less severe than in April[4] - Potential risks include the higher current position of U.S. stocks, which may make them more sensitive to negative news[4] Commodity Price Movements - Copper prices have seen significant pressure, with a notable decline due to tariff threats, while other non-ferrous metals are less affected[5] - Aluminum prices have shown resilience but may face downward pressure if trade tensions escalate further[6] Supply Chain and Shipping Impacts - China's countermeasures against U.S. tariffs are expected to have limited impact on European shipping routes but may increase costs for U.S. shipping lines[7] - Oil prices are projected to face a potential decline of 5-6% due to increased inventory levels and market sentiment[7] Industrial and Agricultural Products - The trade war's impact on agricultural products is mixed, with soybeans and certain fresh produce remaining strong, while cotton is expected to weaken[8] - Industrial silicon is anticipated to see a price drop of 4-5% due to high inventory levels and an oversupply situation[13]

Macro Factors - The recent political turmoil in Europe, particularly in France, has led to a strengthening of the US dollar, with the dollar index surpassing 99 for the first time since August 1. This change in macro assumptions regarding interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar is unfavorable for non-US markets, contributing to a 1.7% drop in the Hang Seng Index and over 1% in the Nikkei 225, marking its first decline of over 1% since September 1 [1] - The upcoming trade talks between China and the US on November 10 have intensified market activities, particularly in the lithium battery sector, which has seen significant declines due to export control measures [1] Industry Trends - The static price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio exceeding 300 has triggered panic among leveraged funds, as the falling stock prices lead to changes in P/E ratios. Some brokerages have raised the margin financing rates for certain stocks, which could lead to a potential rebound if market sentiment shifts [1] - The robotics sector is experiencing negative sentiment, with two recent pieces of bad news contributing to a broader market decline, illustrating how pessimism can perpetuate further pessimism [2] Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes a shift in investment mindset from trading to allocation, suggesting that investors should focus on building core competencies and ensuring stable cash flow during economic downturns. It advocates for investing in funds rather than individual stocks, particularly in major indices like the CSI 300 and A500 [4] - The article highlights the importance of recognizing that market fluctuations are normal, with the ChiNext 50 index dropping 5.6% and the Growth Enterprise Market index down 4.5%. It notes that there have been numerous trading days with significant fluctuations in the ChiNext 50 this year [6] - The article advises against chasing high prices during market exuberance, suggesting that buying on dips is a more prudent strategy [10][12] - It discusses the importance of balanced asset allocation, which may not maximize returns but can help investors stay in the market and hold onto their positions during volatility [20][21] - The article stresses the need for geographical diversification and multi-asset strategies, which can provide a balanced exposure to global market movements and benefit from both risk asset appreciation and safe-haven asset price increases during economic cycles [24] Quality Equity Investment - The article maintains that the preference for quality equity investments remains unchanged, as the dividend yield of the CSI Dividend Index continues to exceed the yield of 10-year government bonds, indicating that equity assets still offer better value compared to bonds [27][29] - It emphasizes the growing importance of selecting and constructing quality equity portfolios, which is becoming increasingly challenging for ordinary investors [29][30]

Core Insights - The article discusses the journey of an individual who followed investment advice from a figure named 博格, leading to a significant turnaround in their investment performance after a series of losses [7][20][28]. Group 1: Investment Journey - The individual initially faced losses in their investment journey, particularly from 2015 to 2023, where they experienced significant financial setbacks and family pressures due to poor investment choices [10][12][15]. - After recognizing the need for professional guidance, the individual began following 博格's investment strategies, which provided a sense of security and improved decision-making [20][22][25]. Group 2: Learning and Adaptation - The individual engaged in extensive learning about investment strategies, attending seminars and online courses, but initially struggled to apply this knowledge effectively in real-world scenarios [17][19]. - Following 博格's guidance, the individual shifted their investment approach, focusing on practical application and emotional resilience, which led to a more disciplined investment strategy [26][27]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - Prior to joining 博格's investment community, the individual faced a loss of nearly 180,000 yuan, but after following 博格's strategies, they reported a profit of 193,000 yuan by September 28, 2025, indicating a successful turnaround [28][30]. - The individual expressed satisfaction with 博格's approach, emphasizing the importance of having a reliable mentor in navigating the complexities of investment [29][30].