2025年A股一路攀升，港股中的医药股和科技股也一度走出非常凌厉的行情。但步入四季度，港股上涨 势头有所减缓。那么，2026年的港股市场会如何走？ 最后，从资金面看，徐猛预判2026年南向资金有望持续流入港股。此外，港股是外资投向中国资产 的"桥头堡"，与海外流动性相关性较高。美联储2025年9月开启新一轮降息周期，多重信号显示2026年 宽松大趋势仍将继续。因此在中美宽松周期共振下，徐猛认为有望支撑港股流动性保持充沛。 （文章来源：证券时报） 徐猛认为，首先从动量特征来看，恒生科技指数、恒生指数等核心指数一年期以上的长期动量保持向上 趋势。当前的短期回调符合预期，从机构配置视角看，这提供了较好的介入机会。 其次，港股科技板块基本面驱动明确。"港股通科技汇聚国产AI核心资产，涵盖算力、模型、软件应用 和硬件终端等全产业链龙头企业；不仅如此，国内参与全球AI竞争的互联网大厂在资本开支、上下游 布局方面若有跟进动作，有望催化新一轮科技行情。"徐猛表示，DeepSeek的出现推动中国科技企业在 全球竞争优势的重新定位，信心和观念的重塑将推动国内外投资者重新审视中国的投资机会，因此，中 美科技股估值差有望收敛，估值中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing growth ("small stocks") and stability ("large stocks") in investment strategies to navigate through different market cycles effectively [5][20]. Group 1: Historical Perspective on Investment Strategies - The distinction between "old stocks" and "new stocks" is not about superiority; both serve as tools in an investment portfolio, with their effectiveness varying by market conditions [6][7]. - Historical data shows that while growth stocks may outperform during bull markets, stable dividend-paying stocks can provide consistent returns over the long term, mitigating risks during downturns [11][14]. - The performance of various indices from 2013 to 2025 illustrates that while growth stocks can have significant short-term gains, they also experience substantial drawdowns, whereas dividend low-volatility stocks offer steadier returns [12][13]. Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is characterized by higher volatility and faster rhythms, making high dividend and low volatility strategies particularly valuable [15]. - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index employs strict rules to ensure sustainable dividends and avoid pitfalls like "dividend traps" [17][18]. - Over the past three to seven years, the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, demonstrating its effectiveness in providing stable returns [19]. Group 3: A+H Market Strategy - The core value of low-volatility dividend stocks lies in their defensive role within a portfolio, providing stability and peace of mind for investors [21]. - The A-share market's low-volatility dividend ETF has proven its defensive value over the past decade, while the Hong Kong counterpart offers new opportunities for investors [21][22]. - A balanced approach combining both defensive and growth-oriented assets is essential for long-term investment success [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of three major indices: the Hang Seng Tech Index, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index, and the China Internet 50 Index, highlighting their significant gains and the underlying factors driving these increases [4][5]. Group 1: Index Performance - On September 17, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 4.22%, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index by 3.27%, and the China Internet 50 Index by 3.40%, all reaching nearly four-year highs [4]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index has seen a year-to-date increase of 41.77%, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index and China Internet 50 Index have increased by 58.54% and 47.51% respectively [5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Performance - External factors include rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and a more accommodative global liquidity environment, which benefit the overall liquidity of Hong Kong stocks [4]. - Internally, the ongoing AI wave and breakthroughs in core technologies like large models and cloud computing among domestic tech companies have significantly contributed to the strong performance of key tech stocks [4]. Group 3: Index Composition and Strategy - The China Internet 50 Index is characterized by a "head concentration + low-frequency adjustment" strategy, with over 50% of its weight concentrated in Tencent and Alibaba, and adjustments made semi-annually [7]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index employs a "diversified holding + high-frequency adjustment" strategy, with a maximum weight of 8% per stock and quarterly adjustments, allowing it to quickly capture emerging opportunities [7][8]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index has a middle-ground approach, with a maximum weight of 15% per stock and semi-annual adjustments, benefiting from liquidity premiums due to the inclusion of mainland investors [8]. Group 4: Industry Composition - The China Internet 50 Index focuses primarily on internet companies, with over 90% of its components in social media, e-commerce, and online entertainment, making it highly dependent on the internet industry cycle [9][10]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index has a balanced layout with approximately 55% in internet and over 40% in hard tech sectors like semiconductors and new energy vehicles [10]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index features a more diversified industry coverage, including hard tech, internet, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on growth [11]. Group 5: Valuation Analysis - As of September 16, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the China Internet 50 Index is 21.11, placing it in the 18.01% historical percentile, indicating it is at a historical low [15]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index has a PE ratio of 24.24, in the 35.07% historical percentile, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index has a PE ratio of 25.84, in the 53.31% historical percentile [15]. - All three indices are currently at relatively low or reasonably low valuation levels, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [16]. Group 6: Investment Suitability - The China Internet 50 Index is suitable for investors who believe in core assets, benefiting from the certainty of leading companies like Tencent and Alibaba [18]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index is recommended for balanced exposure to both soft and hard tech sectors, with a diversified holding strategy reducing single-industry risk [18]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index is ideal for investors looking to capture multidimensional growth opportunities in technology, with a focus on both growth and liquidity [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of gathering and summarizing valuable investment knowledge and data-driven insights for better learning and decision-making in investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The article discusses a promotional event for the "Ding Series Investment Advisory Combination," offering a 50% discount on advisory fees from July 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, with a cap of 180 yuan per year for larger investments [5]. - It highlights the principle of value investing, referencing Warren Buffett's approach, which focuses on buying companies with strong earnings growth, as a foundation for long-term investment success [7]. - The article outlines six enhancement methods for index investment, including fundamental enhancement and quantitative enhancement, which can increase returns beyond the index's inherent growth [9]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The article presents insights on the current market valuation, indicating that the market remains relatively undervalued, suggesting continued investment in active selection and index enhancement strategies [12]. - It discusses the relationship between index valuation and company earnings growth, noting that recent favorable policies are expected to positively impact earnings growth, leading to a dual boost in valuation and earnings [11]. - The article provides an overview of the Hong Kong technology index, noting its higher long-term returns compared to broader indices, while also highlighting the volatility associated with sector-specific investments [18]. Group 3: Financial Products and Tools - The article introduces a new "Golden Star Rating" and "Bull-Bear Signal Board" for gold assets, providing insights into gold pricing, historical ratings, and its relationship with real interest rates [6]. - It discusses the recent trend of lowering the investment threshold for trusts to 300,000 yuan, making them more accessible for wealth management among ordinary investors [17]. - The article emphasizes the importance of global investment through index funds, suggesting that they provide a diversified approach to capturing opportunities across various markets [14].

一、全市场概况 | | | 指数涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 中证A500 | -2.53% | | | 中证A50 | -2.33% | | | 上证180 | -1.47% | | | 沪深300 | -2.24% | | | 中证500 | -1.51% | | | 中证800 | -2.06% | | | 800现金流 | -6.38% | | | 中证1000 | 0.70% | | 宽基 | 国证2000 | 4.10% | | | 科创20 | -3.14% | | | 科创100 | 7.85% | | | 科创200 | 10.90% | | | 科创综指 | 3.76% | | | 创业板50 | -7.59% | | | 创业板指 | -6.15% | | | 北证50 | 29.84% | | | 道琼斯工业平均 | -0.88% | | | 港股通医药 | 43.90% | | | 港股通消费 | 18.70% | 截至上周末，全市场权益类ETF总规模36435.08亿元，过去一周场内总规模减少265.94亿元，总份额增加205.34亿份，资金净流入19 ...