证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2026 年 2 月 11 日 冲击高峰已过，恒科触底反弹 ——港股 2 月策略月报 近期恒生科技走势较弱，我们坚定认为这是一次剧烈的流动性冲击，港股科技 的基本面与做多逻辑没有发生改变。当前海外流动性冲击高峰已过，"buy the dip"是有效策略，并且港股科技相对于 A 股科技的折价接近历史最高水平，或 将迎来触底反弹。往后看去，我们建议逢低买入、持股过节，细分方向上推荐 科技（AI 与互联网）、非银（保险）与红利。 ❑ 配置策略：科技（AI 与互联网、高端制造），非银（保险），红利 ❑ 风险提示：1）美联储货币政策转向；2）流动性大幅波动；3）黑天鹅事件。 专题报告 相关报告 3、《当前时点坚定看好恒生科 技的六大理由——港股系列研 究报告（3）》 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 王德健 研究助理 wangdejian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 港股 2 月核心观点。近期以恒生科技为代表的港 ...

Core Insights - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has released the "ETF Market Development White Paper (2025)", outlining the innovative trajectory of new ETF products driven by policy guidance and market demand [1] - By the end of 2025, the total scale of domestic ETFs is expected to exceed 6 trillion yuan, with an annual growth rate of 62% [2] Group 1: ETF Product Development - The white paper highlights a clear strategy for the development of ETFs in Shenzhen, focusing on the economic transformation and reform of the ChiNext market, with the introduction of multiple ChiNext 50 and ChiNext Composite Index ETFs [1] - The launch of thematic ETFs in artificial intelligence and robotics allows investors to easily share in the benefits of industrial transformation [1] - The bond ETF sector has seen significant innovation, with the introduction of 4 benchmark credit bond ETFs and 10 sci-tech bond ETFs, totaling a scale of 203.1 billion yuan, which is a 4.35 times increase compared to before listing [1] Group 2: Market Growth and Structure - The growth of the ETF market is primarily driven by the increase in existing product scales and the issuance of high-quality new products, contributing nearly 70% to the market increment [2] - The structure of new product issuance shows a solid multi-dimensional development pattern, with broad-based ETFs expanding steadily, while industry-themed ETFs have experienced explosive growth, particularly in the technology sector [4] - Strategy ETFs, such as those focused on dividends and free cash flow, have seen a nearly doubling in number, while bond ETFs contributed 489 billion yuan in new issuance [4] Group 3: Institutional Participation - The year 2025 is marked as a significant year for the issuance of new ETF products, with E Fund leading the industry by launching 32 new ETFs [4] - Other major institutions like China Universal Asset Management and Penghua Fund have also contributed significantly, with over 20 new ETFs each [4] - A total of 16 fund companies launched more than 10 new ETFs in the year, indicating a competitive landscape that injects continuous innovation into the ETF market [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 12 to January 16, 2026, major equity market indices showed mixed performance, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index having the largest increase of 2.58%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 13 industries rose, with the top five gainers being Computer, Electronics, Non - Ferrous Metals, Media, and Machinery and Equipment, and the top five decliners being National Defense and Military Industry, Real Estate, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery, Coal, and Banking [1][12]. - In the public fund market, the first domestic gold ETF with a scale exceeding 100 billion was born, and the latest expansion of Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF became effective. Among equity funds, partial - stock funds had the largest increase of 1.35% on average, and the proportion of positive returns was 74.98% [2][31]. - In the ETF market, the overall net capital outflow last week was 157.331 billion yuan, with stock - type ETFs having the largest net outflow of 141.643 billion yuan. Software services, media, semiconductors, non - ferrous metals, and commercial space were the main sectors with capital inflows, while broad - based indices related to CSI 300, SSE STAR Market 50, ChiNext, SSE 50, and CSI Small - cap 500 saw significant capital outflows [3][44][45]. - In terms of fund issuance, 36 new funds were issued last week, 12 fewer than the previous period; 23 new funds were established, 12 more than the previous period, and the total funds raised by new funds were 19.294 billion yuan, 11.103 billion yuan more than the previous period [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Domestic Market Situation - From January 12 to January 16, 2026, major equity market indices showed mixed performance, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rising 2.58%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 13 industries rose, with the top five gainers being Computer, Electronics, Non - Ferrous Metals, Media, and Machinery and Equipment, and the top five decliners being National Defense and Military Industry, Real Estate, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery, Coal, and Banking. In the bond market, the ChinaBond Composite Full - Price Index rose 0.14%, and the ChinaBond Treasury Bond, Financial Bond, and Credit Bond Total Full - Price Indices rose between 0.05% and 0.14%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, and the Nanhua Commodity Index in the commodity market rose 1.13% [1][12] 3.1.2 European, American, and Asia - Pacific Market Situation - Last week, major indices in European, American, and Asia - Pacific markets showed mixed performance. In the US stock market, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.20%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.32%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 0.66%. In the European market, the French CAC40 fell 1.23%, and the German DAX rose 0.14%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.34%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 3.84% [19] 3.1.3 Market Valuation Situation - Last week, the valuation quantiles of major market indices mostly rose. In terms of the historical quantiles of price - to - earnings ratio, the ChiNext Index had the largest increase of 2.9 pct. In terms of the historical quantiles of price - to - book ratio, the CSI 500 had the largest increase of 2.2 pct. Among industries, the top five industries with the highest historical quantiles of price - to - earnings ratio of the Shenwan primary index were Electronics, Real Estate, Computer, Commercial Trade, and Comprehensive. The price - to - earnings ratio quantile of Electronics remained at a high level, and the price - to - earnings ratio quantile of Real Estate reached 95.1%. The bottom five industries with low historical quantiles of price - to - earnings ratio were Non - Banking Finance, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery, Food and Beverage, Beauty and Care, and Communication, and the valuation of the Non - Banking Finance industry was close to its historical low since 2013 [22] 3.2 Active Public Fund Situation 3.2.1 Market Hotspots - The first domestic gold ETF with a scale exceeding 100 billion was born. As of January 19, 2026, the scale of Huaan Gold ETF reached 101.528 billion yuan [31]. - The latest expansion of Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF became effective. Since January 19, 54 new ETFs were added to the northbound Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect, and 44 new ETFs were added to the northbound Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect. Seven ETFs were temporarily removed from the Mainland - Hong Kong Stock Connect targets. After the adjustment, the total number of ETFs covered by the "ETF Connect" increased from 273 to 364, an increase of more than 30% [32] 3.2.2 Fund Performance - Among equity funds, partial - stock funds had the largest increase of 1.35% on average, and the proportion of positive returns was 74.98%; fixed - income + funds rose 0.32% on average, and the proportion of positive returns was 87.09%; pure - bond funds rose 0.10% on average, and the proportion of positive returns was 98.67%; pension target FOFs rose 0.58% on average, and the proportion of positive returns was 98.49%. In addition, QDII funds rose 0.97% on average, and the proportion of positive returns was 69.31% [2][32] 3.2.3 Industry Position and Overall Position - Through the calculation of the industry positions of active equity funds, the top industries with increased positions last week were Electronics, Power Equipment, and Non - Ferrous Metals; the top industries with decreased positions were Media, National Defense and Military Industry, and Computer. The overall position of active equity funds on January 16, 2026, was 79.71%, an increase of 4.16 pct. compared with the previous period [39][40] 3.3 ETF Fund Situation - Last week, the overall net capital outflow in the ETF market was 157.331 billion yuan. Stock - type ETFs had the largest net outflow of 141.643 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market last week reached 622.2 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume reached 248.479 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate reached 9.96% [3][44] - In terms of individual bonds, software services, media, semiconductors, non - ferrous metals, and commercial space were the main sectors with capital inflows, while broad - based indices related to CSI 300, SSE STAR Market 50, ChiNext, SSE 50, and CSI Small - cap 500 saw significant capital outflows, mainly concentrated on January 15 and 16 [3][45] 3.4 Fund Issuance Statistics - Last week, 36 new funds were issued in China, 12 fewer than the previous period. Among them, there were 13 active partial - stock funds and 16 passive index funds. Ten of the passive index funds were stock - type funds, mainly tracking indices such as the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Theme, China Securities Consumption Electronics Theme, SSE STAR Market 200, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Theme. Currently, the issuance share of active equity funds is still at a historical low, but it has shown an obvious upward trend since this year [52] - Last week, 23 new funds were established in China, 12 more than the previous period. The total funds raised by new funds were 19.294 billion yuan, 11.103 billion yuan more than the previous period. The Fuda ChinaBond High - Grade Science and Technology Innovation and Green Bond A managed by Cheng Hao had the largest fundraising scale of about 4 billion yuan [57]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the differences in performance between ETFs and their linked funds, particularly during periods of market volatility and holiday trading schedules, highlighting the impact of pricing mechanisms and trading conditions on investment outcomes [1][4][6]. Group 1: ETF and Linked Fund Performance - ETFs have two price indicators: net asset value (NAV) and trading price, while linked funds base their performance on the NAV of the ETF, not its trading price [5]. - During bullish market conditions, the trading price of ETFs may exceed the indicative optimized portfolio value (IOPV), leading to higher price increases for ETFs compared to their NAV and linked funds [5]. - Factors such as position limits and fund subscriptions/redemptions contribute to the performance discrepancies between ETFs and linked funds [5]. Group 2: Cross-Border ETF Linked Funds - The premium on cross-border ETFs has gained attention due to differences in trading hours, where A-shares may be closed while Hong Kong stocks are still trading, affecting the NAV of ETFs [6]. - Holiday trading arrangements can further complicate the situation; for instance, during the National Day holiday, A-shares were closed while Hong Kong stocks traded, allowing cross-border ETFs to benefit from price movements without updating NAV until the holiday ended [6]. - Overall, both ETF linked funds and ETFs share similar underlying assets, and investors should choose based on their investment goals, trading habits, and capital size [6].

Market Overview - A-shares continue to rise, with the Wind All A index breaking through 6400 points, reaching the fourth highest point of the year, just 0.5% away from a new closing high for 2025 [1] Company Analysis - The two popular new stocks, Mo Wang and Mu Xi, have seen significant price fluctuations, with Mo Wang peaking at 940 CNY and Mu Xi at 895 CNY, both experiencing a pullback of approximately 33% and 32% respectively [2][3][5] - There are concerns regarding the competitive edge of these companies, given their relatively short establishment period of less than five years, raising questions about their long-term sustainability and market share against potential new entrants [7] Investment Trends - The silver LOF experienced a significant drop, hitting the limit down, while over 20 other LOFs also faced similar declines, indicating a volatile trading environment [10][12] - The market is characterized by speculative trading, particularly in small-cap Hong Kong stocks and ETFs, which have shown erratic price movements due to T+0 trading characteristics [14] - A notable increase in investment in the electric grid equipment sector has been observed, with a substantial inflow of 450 million CNY into the electric grid equipment ETF, indicating strong institutional interest [32][33] Currency Movements - The offshore RMB has approached the 7 CNY mark against the USD, with expectations of further strengthening due to increased corporate willingness to convert USD to RMB, particularly in anticipation of year-end settlement needs [21][26][27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant increase in cross-border ETFs, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF hitting the upper limit, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect 100 ETF and Hang Seng ETF saw gains exceeding 7%, albeit with substantial premiums [1] - Due to the Christmas holiday, the Hong Kong stock market will be closed from December 24 (Wednesday) afternoon, with trading resuming on December 29 (Monday) [1] Group 2 - Specific performance data shows the following ETFs: - Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF (code: 159712) rose by 10.03% to a price of 1.426 with a premium rate of 10.39% [2] - Hong Kong Stock Connect 100 ETF (code: 159788) increased by 8.19% to 1.467 with a premium rate of 9.22% [2] - Hang Seng ETF (code: 159312) gained 7.50% to 1.347 with a premium rate of 7.59% [2] - Other ETFs also showed positive performance, with varying increases and premium rates [2] - Analysts suggest that investors should be cautious of the premium risk in the secondary market, as purchasing at high premiums may lead to significant losses [2]

Core Insights - The third China Overseas Fund Summit and the "China Overseas Fund New Intelligence Award" ceremony took place in Shenzhen, attracting over 200 participating institutions, highlighting the growing interest in the overseas fund sector amid geopolitical changes and market volatility [1] - The summit featured discussions on new paths for global capital allocation, with industry leaders sharing insights on asset allocation strategies and the evolving landscape of the China overseas fund industry [1] Group 1: Global Capital Allocation - The first roundtable discussed the reconstruction of global capital allocation algorithms under geopolitical shifts, noting that the Hong Kong Stock Connect has seen a cumulative net inflow of over 5.3 trillion HKD as of November 2023, with the Hong Kong ETF market growing from 290 billion HKD to 710 billion HKD, a 2.4 times increase [2] - The demand for offshore asset allocation is increasing as Chinese capital transitions from OEM exports to brand operations, with over 200 new family offices established in Hong Kong in the past three years [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Market Conditions - The second roundtable focused on investment strategies in a complex market environment, emphasizing the importance of multi-strategy approaches and the stability of Chinese urban investment bonds, which are seen as having a credit risk close to government bonds [5] - The discussion highlighted the potential benefits of Chinese urban investment offshore bonds in a declining interest rate environment, with expectations of reduced supply and increased demand [6] Group 3: Alpha Strategies and Risk Management - The third roundtable addressed the pursuit of low-correlation alpha strategies, emphasizing that effective strategies can amplify returns amid market volatility, with a focus on risk management and innovative strategies [7] - Participants discussed three clear alpha opportunities arising from the interest rate decline: curve trading, credit exploration, and currency arbitrage [8] Group 4: Post-Scarcity Era and Investment Focus - The fourth roundtable explored the implications of the post-scarcity era, emphasizing the importance of investing in people, machines, and wisdom, with a suggested allocation of 50% to people, 30% to advanced technology, and 20% to infrastructure [10] - The discussion underscored that while AI enhances efficiency in data processing, it cannot replace the unique human capabilities in complex creative tasks and emotional interactions [11]

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent adjustments in technology stocks have led to a relatively volatile market, with trading activity cooling down and retail investors showing net outflows [2][4] - Private equity funds have shown a strong willingness to allocate capital, with the number of registered funds increasing to 286 last week, marking a rebound [2] - Public funds have also shown signs of a trend reversal in their positions since mid-October [2] Group 2: Fixed Income Insights - In the first week of November, both new and second-hand housing transactions have declined, with new home sales at seasonal lows, indicating a need for price improvement [4][5] - Industrial freight volumes have slightly decreased, but production rates remain strong, with most sectors showing year-on-year increases [4] - The real estate sector is advised to focus on high-grade state-owned enterprise bonds for investment, given the current market conditions [5] Group 3: Technology and AI Developments - The 2026 Investment Summit highlighted a new acceleration in global computing power construction, driven by expanding inference demand and innovative financing models [6][7] - The AI industry is entering a new paradigm, with synthetic data breaking training data ceilings and commercial applications scaling up [7] Group 4: Machinery and Equipment - In October 2025, excavator sales reached 18,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, but growth has slowed compared to September [8] - Domestic demand is expected to recover, supported by rapid growth in second-hand excavator exports [8] Group 5: Renewable Energy and Storage - The State Council's white paper emphasizes the importance of new energy storage in achieving carbon neutrality goals, highlighting three key areas for investment: new energy + storage, grid upgrades, and traditional power sources [11] Group 6: Communication Sector - The communication sector showed steady growth in Q3 2025, with revenue and net profit increasing by 5.2% and 12.3% year-on-year, respectively [14] - Future growth is expected to be driven by increased investment in AI computing power and the expansion of telecommunications operators [14] Group 7: Environmental Testing Industry - The third-party testing and inspection industry is anticipated to see a performance growth inflection point in Q4 2025, driven by policy support and emerging demand [16] - Key companies to focus on include Su Shi Testing and Huace Testing, which are expected to show clear performance rebounds [16] Group 8: Company-Specific Insights - Kaisa Biotech has been initiated with a "Buy" rating, targeting a price of 64.90 yuan, benefiting from its leading position in the biomanufacturing sector [19][16] - Hualu Hengsheng is expected to see improved market conditions for oxalic acid and caprolactam, maintaining a "Buy" rating [18]

Group 1 - The core announcement is about the adjustment of the Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF list by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, effective from November 10, 2025 [1] - The ETFs added to the list include ICBC South China (03167), Southern Hang Seng Biotechnology (03174), China Merchants Hang Seng Technology (03423), Southern Hong Kong Stock Connect (03432), Southern East-West Select (03441), and Southern Hong Kong-US Technology (03442) [1]

Core Points - The Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF list will undergo adjustments, effective from November 10, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The adjustment of the ETF list under the Stock Connect program indicates a strategic shift in investment opportunities for investors in the Hong Kong market [1]