■田鹏 新纳入标的的行业分布既涵盖半导体、高端制造等科技创新领域龙头企业，如生益电子、长盈精密等，也囊括黄金、锂、 铜等战略性资源类核心标的，如中国黄金国际、紫金黄金国际等，清晰勾勒出科技创新与资源价值双主线的调整逻辑。 未来，随着中国在科技创新领域的不断突破、核心资源保障能力的持续提升，以及资本市场开放程度的进一步深化，全球 资本与中国优质资产的双向奔赴将更加紧密。在资本的赋能与市场的淬炼下，中国产业升级的步伐将愈发稳健，资本市场的价 值发现功能将愈发凸显，最终实现产业、资本与市场的良性循环。 这一调整趋势并非偶然，而是年内MSCI指数优化方向的延续与强化。回顾2025年前三次调整（2月份、5月份和8月份）， 所剔除标的虽无明确行业集中倾向，但多为业绩持续承压、市场流动性不足或基本面出现边际变化的个股；而新纳入标的则始 终向"高成长潜力、硬核技术实力、产业稀缺价值"倾斜。 其三，资本更趋务实，聚焦可持续的盈利能力与现金流。无论是科技自主还是资源稀缺，最终能够获得国际指数青睐的， 仍是那些在细分领域具有清晰盈利路径、稳健财务结构及良好公司治理的标的。在经济增长模式转型的当下，资本市场正在用 真金白银投票，筛选 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates a significant decline in new A-share accounts in October, with a year-on-year decrease of 66% and a month-on-month decrease of 21% [1] - In the first ten months of 2025, a total of 22.46 million new A-share accounts have been opened, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [1] - UBS analysts suggest that due to expected lackluster earnings reports in the coming months, investors are selling off stocks that have seen substantial gains this year, which may narrow valuation gaps among companies and lead stock prices to revert to historical averages [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has expressed that global capital allocators will continue to show interest in China, while Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the stock markets in China, Japan, and India [4] - The CEOs of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley specifically highlighted the attractiveness of the Hong Kong stock market, mentioning the impressive performance of tech stocks like DeepSeek [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shengshu Asset Management Company plans to establish its China headquarters, Shengshu Investment (Hainan) Co., Ltd., in Sanya, Hainan, on December 28, 2025, reflecting confidence in China's long-term economic development and the increasing attractiveness of the Hainan Free Trade Port system [1][3] Group 1: Company Strategy and Operations - Shengshu Asset Management, headquartered in Singapore, focuses on international capital markets and serves high-net-worth clients, sovereign wealth funds, insurance groups, and large family offices [3] - The company is shifting its strategic focus from traditional mature markets to emerging economies, particularly those with clear policy benefits and institutional innovation, with Hainan being a prime example [3][4] - The establishment of the Hainan headquarters is part of Shengshu's global strategy to deepen its presence in China and radiate across Asia, with multiple functions including asset allocation, fund operation, market research, investor services, risk control, compliance supervision, and digital platform development [4][9] Group 2: Investment Plans and Financial Commitments - Shengshu plans to invest $1 billion in a diversified structured investment portfolio, with $400 million allocated to core industries in the free trade port, including cross-border asset management, international shipping settlement services, digital trade infrastructure, healthcare digital upgrades, and fintech projects [4][5] - An additional $300 million will target high-growth sectors such as green energy, carbon asset trading platforms, duty-free retail chains, cultural tourism innovation, and ESG-driven enterprise incubators [5][7] - The company will also allocate $200 million for quality infrastructure REITs assets, focusing on long-term stable cash flow [7] Group 3: Governance and Compliance - Shengshu plans to initiate a "全民持股计划" (Employee Stock Ownership Plan), aiming to release over 40% of company equity to core employees, individual investors, external strategic partners, and potential public investors [8] - The company has partnered with King & Wood Mallesons and PwC for comprehensive strategic cooperation to ensure compliance and regulatory alignment in the Chinese market [8][9] Group 4: Government Support and Future Outlook - The Hainan provincial government and Sanya municipal government have shown strong support for Shengshu's headquarters establishment, initiating a "green approval channel" for various operational needs [9][10] - By 2027, Shengshu aims to establish a local professional team of no less than 300 people in Hainan, covering key functions such as investment research, legal, compliance, market, data, and system development [9][10] - The company views the establishment of its headquarters as a validation of institutional pathways and an expression of capital trust in China, with Hainan expected to become a central node connecting global resources and Chinese industries [11]

Group 1 - The current shift in the dollar cycle is leading to a reallocation of global capital, with expectations of a transition from a "tight" to a "loose" liquidity environment [1] - Emerging markets are experiencing increased capital inflows, with a net inflow of $44.8 billion in August, up from $38.1 billion in July and $28.2 billion in August of the previous year [2] - China is becoming a focal point for international capital, with $39 billion net inflow into Chinese bonds and stocks in August, while other emerging markets saw a net outflow of $7.4 billion in stocks [2] Group 2 - The anticipated decrease in U.S. interest rates is expected to lower financing costs for companies with high overseas debt, improving profit expectations, particularly in sectors like aviation and raw materials [3] - The shift in dollar liquidity presents opportunities but also challenges, including potential reversals in Federal Reserve policy, structural deficits in some emerging markets, and external factors like geopolitical conflicts and energy price fluctuations [3] - The reallocation of capital emphasizes the importance of economic resilience, policy flexibility, and core competitiveness in markets to truly benefit from the current dollar cycle shift [3]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB experienced a significant rebound against the USD, rising over 340 points in one day, reaching a high of 7.1182, marking the first time since November 6, 2024, that it surpassed the 7.12 threshold. This surge reflects international confidence in China's economic resilience and is indicative of a broader global capital rebalancing trend [3][4]. Group 1: Drivers of RMB Strength - Global monetary policy shifts, particularly dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, have put pressure on the USD, benefiting the RMB. Market expectations for a 89% probability of a Fed rate cut in September have contributed to this dynamic [3][4]. - China's economic fundamentals remain robust, with a cumulative export growth rate of 6.1% from January to July, indicating strong global competitiveness. The positive shift in bank settlement for trade also supports RMB appreciation [4]. - The domestic capital market is recovering, with increased foreign capital inflows into Chinese assets. As of August 27, there was a significant net purchase of approximately 20.4 billion RMB in Hong Kong stocks, reflecting foreign investors' optimism towards the Chinese market [5][7]. Group 2: Beneficiaries of RMB Appreciation - The aviation industry stands to benefit from RMB appreciation, as it reduces the debt exchange losses associated with USD-denominated liabilities for aircraft purchases and fuel imports [8]. - Import-dependent industries, such as paper manufacturing, could see a 3% to 6% increase in gross margins due to lower procurement costs from RMB appreciation [8]. - Other sectors, including transportation, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, machinery, home appliances, electronics, and power equipment, may also benefit from reduced import costs and lighter foreign debt burdens [8]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - International capital is increasingly focusing on Chinese stocks, with nearly 60% of sovereign wealth funds prioritizing China as an investment market. Chinese stocks have become the second-largest overseas investment destination for South Korean investors [7]. - Despite foreign capital holding only 3.4% of the total A-share market value, there remains a significant potential for increased foreign investment, indicating a strong future demand for RMB assets [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook for RMB - Market sentiment regarding the RMB's future is generally optimistic, with some institutions predicting a potential return to the "6" range if the central bank maintains a market-driven policy [9][12]. - The RMB's exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.1 and 7.3 in the latter half of the year, reflecting a stable outlook amid moderate economic recovery [9][10]. - As of August 29, the RMB's midpoint against the USD reached 7.1030, the highest since November 7, 2024, indicating increased trading activity in the foreign exchange market [10].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the first stablecoin-based venture capital fund by China National Capital Venture Investment Co., Ltd. (Guofengtou) marks a significant step into the digital finance sector for state-owned capital in China, with a fund size of 3 billion USDT, providing new solutions for cross-border investment and global capital allocation [1][4]. Group 1: Fund Characteristics - The fund has a scale of 3 billion USDT and offers an innovative daily yield of 1.6%, which translates to an annualized return of over 500%, making it highly attractive to investors seeking stable returns [3][5]. - Stablecoins, such as USDT, are pegged to the US dollar, providing value stability, efficient cross-border transfers, and low costs, thus becoming essential financial tools in cross-border investment and digital finance [3][5]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The fund's launch signifies a strategic transformation for Chinese state-owned capital in the globalized and digital investment landscape, serving as a strong example for innovation in China's capital markets [4][11]. - The fund aims to invest in strategic resources in global markets, focusing on advanced technology sectors such as smart manufacturing, renewable energy, and artificial intelligence, thereby promoting the "Belt and Road" initiative and deepening global industrial integration [10][11]. Group 3: Global Competitiveness - The stablecoin fund is designed to enhance the efficiency of capital operations and improve global capital allocation capabilities, thereby increasing the competitiveness of Chinese capital in international markets [11][12]. - By utilizing digital asset technology, the fund can effectively mitigate traditional investment risks such as currency fluctuations and transaction costs, providing greater investment flexibility and adaptability for Chinese enterprises [11][12]. Group 4: Risk Management and Compliance - The fund incorporates a strict risk control and compliance framework, ensuring transparency and security in its operations, with third-party custody and regulatory oversight for all investment projects and fund flows [12][13]. - Guofengtou collaborates with well-known financial institutions to provide comprehensive compliance guarantees, ensuring the fund's operations are secure and transparent [12][13]. Group 5: Conclusion - The establishment of the 3 billion USDT stablecoin fund not only represents a significant innovation for Chinese state-owned capital in the digital finance sector but also introduces a new investment model to the global capital market [13]. - With its attractive yield, global investment strategy, and rigorous risk management, Guofengtou is poised to play a more prominent role in cross-border investment and digital asset management in the future [13].

Core Insights - In the first half of the year, foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds increased by a net amount of 10.1 billion USD, indicating a growing interest from global capital in the domestic equity market [1] Group 1 - The net increase in foreign investment reached 18.8 billion USD in May and June, highlighting a significant rise in investment activity during this period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong market has demonstrated significant resilience and strong performance in the first half of 2025, with major indices showing approximately 20% gains year-to-date [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 8, 2025, the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index have recorded year-to-date increases of 20.33%, 19.41%, and 19.09% respectively [2][3]. - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to attract over 1 trillion yuan in capital inflows for the entire year [2]. Group 2: Capital Inflows - Southbound capital has been the main driver of the Hong Kong stock market's performance, with a net inflow of 703.15 billion yuan year-to-date, representing 94% of the total for 2024 [3][4]. - The banking, retail, pharmaceutical, and non-bank financial sectors have seen the highest net inflows, with amounts of 212.4 billion yuan, 168.3 billion yuan, 122.4 billion yuan, and 63.3 billion yuan respectively [3]. Group 3: Investment Preferences - Public funds are primarily focused on technology and consumer sectors, leading to significant inflows into several Hang Seng Tech ETFs [6][7]. - Insurance funds prefer high-dividend and low-volatility assets, seeking stable cash flows, with a notable interest in financial and energy sectors [8][14]. Group 4: IPO Market - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a strong recovery, with over 107 billion HKD raised in the first half of 2025, a 22% increase from the previous year [11][12]. - The number of IPO applications has surged to approximately 200, with a notable increase in the quality of companies going public [11]. Group 5: Valuation and Future Outlook - Despite the strong performance, the valuation of the Hong Kong market remains attractive, with the Hang Seng Index trading at a TTM P/E ratio of 10.68 and a dividend yield of 3.93% [13]. - Analysts suggest a balanced investment strategy focusing on high-growth technology and new economy sectors, alongside stable dividend-paying assets to mitigate external volatility [13][14].

Core Insights - A significant number of QDII funds have reduced their holdings in US stocks while increasing their allocation to Chinese assets, indicating a shift in investment strategy among global investors [1][2][3] QDII Fund Adjustments - QDII funds such as GF Global Select and GF Global Technology have notably decreased their US stock allocations, with GF Global Select reducing its US stock position from 70.25% to 60.98% and increasing its Hong Kong stock position from 1.43% to 11.36% [2] - GF Global Technology's US stock allocation fell from 52.93% to 46.4%, while its Hong Kong stock allocation rose from 5.17% to 9.41% [2] - E Fund Global Growth Select also significantly cut its US stock allocation from 48.26% to 12.05%, while increasing its Hong Kong stock allocation from 11.82% to 38.37% [2] Market Performance - From April 3 to April 21, all 14 major global stock indices experienced declines, with the US indices suffering the largest drops, exceeding 9% [4] - In contrast, the Shanghai Composite Index saw a smaller decline of 1.75%, indicating stronger performance relative to US markets [4][5] Investment Sentiment - There is a growing divergence in investment sentiment, with most foreign capital favoring Chinese assets while reducing exposure to US assets [6][7] - The current global trade environment's uncertainty has led to a cautious approach towards risk assets, with long-term overseas funds maintaining their positions in Chinese assets [6][7]