（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国海证券表示，关税冲击对市场情绪构成一定影响，市场寻求稳健性资产，煤炭高股息、现金奶牛的投 资价值属性值得关注。同时年内国家能源集团、山东能源集团、中国中煤能源集团等多家煤炭央国企对 旗下上市公司启动增持与资产注入计划，亦释放利好，彰显煤企发展信心、增厚企业成长性与稳定性。 从大方向来看，煤炭开采行业供应端约束逻辑未变，需求端可能阶段性起伏波动，价格亦呈现一定震荡 和动态再平衡，头部煤炭企业资产质量高，账上现金流充沛，呈现"高盈利、高现金流、高壁垒、高分 红、高安全边际"五高特征。 作为市场唯一一只煤炭ETF，煤炭ETF(515220)跟踪中证煤炭指数（399998），煤炭板块股息率较高， 截至9月30日，近12个月股息率超5.3%，在无风险利率下行的背景下配置价值凸显。可考虑逢低分批布 局煤炭ETF（515220）把握煤炭板块投资机会。 近日，资金持续抢筹高股息煤炭板块，全市场唯一煤炭ETF（515220）连续5日净流入超13亿元。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major A-share indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.1% to close at 3916.23 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to 13086.41 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.38% to 3037.44 points [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets dropped below 2 trillion yuan, with a total of 193.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 141.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The market is facing resistance after breaking the key 3900-point level, with increased volatility expected in the short term, requiring significant catalysts for further upward movement [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The insurance, coal, shipping, and banking sectors showed the highest gains, while small metals, precious metals, wind power equipment, steel, mining, and fertilizer sectors experienced the largest declines [1] - The coal sector is anticipated to see seasonal investment opportunities due to expectations of a cold winter and the potential for a rebound in coal prices in the fourth quarter [2] - The innovative drug sector is gaining traction, with leading stocks experiencing significant gains, driven by ongoing drug review reforms and upcoming international conferences expected to release important clinical data [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The coal sector is expected to benefit from a rebound in prices supported by reduced inventory pressures and increased demand during the winter season [2] - The innovative drug sector is highlighted as having strong investment value, particularly with the upcoming ESMO and ASH conferences that may provide short-term momentum [3] - The coal ETF (515220) has surpassed 12 billion yuan in scale, indicating strong market interest [2]

Core Viewpoint - The coal supply in China is expected to experience a decline due to internal competition, with total domestic production projected to be 2.4 billion tons by mid-2025, and a slight decrease in production anticipated in the second half of the year. The overall supply is expected to be flat or slightly down compared to last year, alongside a significant drop in import volumes, which reached a three-year low in June, down 25.93% year-on-year, and continued to decline by 22.9% in July, marking five consecutive months of year-on-year decreases. The coal industry is expected to face downward risks, but these risks are considered manageable in the medium to long term, making it a potential area for long-term investment [1]. Group 1 - The largest change in supply is attributed to internal competition, with domestic production expected to be 2.4 billion tons by mid-2025 [1] - The total coal import volume in June hit a three-year low, decreasing by 25.93% year-on-year, with July also showing a 22.9% decline [1] - The coal industry is anticipated to reach a turning point in Q2 2025, with downward risks being fully released and manageable in the medium to long term [1] Group 2 - The coal ETF (515220), which tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), has a dividend yield exceeding 5% as of August 8, making it an attractive investment option in the context of declining risk-free interest rates [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider gradually accumulating positions in the coal ETF (515220) and its related funds (Link A: 008279; Link C: 008280; Link E: 022501) to capitalize on investment opportunities in the coal sector [1] - For investors without stock accounts, the Guotai CSI Coal ETF Link C (008280) and Link A (008279) are recommended for consideration [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal ETF (515220) has risen over 7% and has experienced three consecutive days of gains, reaching a 120-day high with a premium rate of 0.51% [1] Group 1 - The latest price of the coal ETF has created a new 120-day high [1] - The trading volume has increased significantly, with a turnover of 9.35 billion yuan, which is a 126.70% increase compared to the previous day [1] - There has been a net outflow of financing over the past three days, amounting to 28.31 million yuan, while the total issuance has increased by 43.08% in the last month, adding 1.777 billion shares [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major indices experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.00%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.33% [1] - Sectors such as chemical raw materials, coal, and fertilizers showed notable gains, while shipbuilding, communication services, and internet services faced significant declines [1] Group 2: Coal Sector Insights - The coal sector's valuation and dividend yield attractiveness are on the rise, supported by a policy initiative from the coal association to control output and improve quality [2] - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in coal sales and inventory, with power coal prices continuing to decline and coking coal prices also falling [2] - The coal industry is entering a maintenance period, and with demand bottoming out, non-electric coal demand is gradually recovering, suggesting potential price increases [2] Group 3: Electricity Sector Developments - Domestic grid investment is entering a high-growth phase, with a reported investment of 43.6 billion yuan in the first two months of the year, marking a 33.5% year-on-year increase [3] - The demand for wind power is increasing globally, with significant growth expected in both onshore and offshore wind installations in various regions [3] - The wind turbine sector is anticipated to undergo a value reassessment due to the unexpected demand surge [3] Group 4: Agriculture and Livestock Sector Trends - The average price of piglets has rebounded rapidly over two weeks, indicating a seasonal increase in stocking demand [4] - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase, leading to a potential alignment of market prices with production costs [4] - The average price of piglets reached 510.95 yuan per head, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.77% [4]