请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 研 究 增量政策聚焦城市更新与新兴科技 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 主题风向标 1 月第 3 期 本报告导读： 热点主题交易热度回落，商业航天、资源品与建材主题领涨，扩内需与科技新动能 是增量政策方向。看好：城市更新/商业航天/国产算力/新型电网。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.26 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 苏徽(分析师) | | | 021-38676434 | | | suhui@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516080006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 Q4 基金动向：增配 AI 基建与价值股 2026.01.24 主题轮动加快，聚焦国产半导体与电力 2026.01.18 AI 应用：以新生产工具重构新经济场景 2026.01.11 新兴产业空间广阔，看多中国产业龙头 2026.01.06 1 月金股策略：决胜"开门红" 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huachuang Securities indicates that China's two major satellite constellations are expected to enter a rapid networking phase by 2026, contingent on the successful recovery and reuse of rockets, which would significantly lower satellite launch costs and accelerate the networking process [1][2]. Demand Side - The satellite internet industry is gaining attention from the Chinese government, with policies being introduced to support its development. The satellite internet aims to provide global broadband access and enhance terrestrial communication networks, forming the basis for the Internet of Things [2]. - The competition for orbital and frequency resources is intensifying, with the U.S. SpaceX's Starlink leading the way by launching over 10,000 satellites. China's two core satellite internet projects, GW constellation and Qianfan constellation, are projected to have a total of 13,000 and 15,000 satellites, respectively [2]. Supply Side - Rocket capacity is crucial for the accelerated construction of satellite networks, with China's current rocket fleet primarily consisting of the Long March series, facing capacity constraints. The bottleneck is attributed to launch frequency, payload capacity, and launch costs [3]. - Several commercial rocket companies, such as Blue Arrow and Tianbing, are developing new models with larger payload capacities, which are expected to take on more launch tasks for the two major constellations. The successful recovery and reuse of rockets is seen as a key method to reduce launch costs [3]. Components - The main components of launch vehicles include structural systems (fairings, tanks, inter-stage sections, engine frames, and tail sections), propulsion systems (propellant delivery pipelines and engines), and control systems. According to statistics, engines account for the largest share of rocket manufacturing costs at 54%, followed by the rocket structure at 24% [4].

Market Overview - The three major indices opened lower today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.52%, and the ChiNext down 0.44% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 500 billion, a decrease of over 80 billion compared to the same time the previous day, with an expected total trading amount of over 2 trillion for the day [1] Sector Performance - The storage chip concept showed strength, while the liquid-cooled server concept fluctuated upward. The commercial aerospace concept rebounded from a low point, and the robotics sector remained strong [1] - Sectors that experienced weakness included hotels, restaurants, and insurance [1] Economic Data - From January to November, state-owned enterprises reported total operating revenue of 7,562.576 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, while total profit decreased by 3.1% to 371.945 billion yuan [1] Investment Insights - Guojin Securities highlighted that a new investment theme for 2026 is emerging in the commodity market, real industry chain, and foreign exchange market, with a focus on AI investments and the recovery of global manufacturing [2] - Key sectors to watch include industrial resource products like copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation, as well as equipment export chains and domestic manufacturing recovery sectors [2] Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector continued its strong performance, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange releasing new listing rules for commercial rocket companies [3] - The next two years are expected to see a boom in the global commercial aerospace industry, with increasing demand for launch services and satellite networking [3] - China is transitioning from "exploration verification" to "growth explosion" in commercial aerospace, with significant advancements in reusable rockets and satellite manufacturing [3] Market Sentiment - The market is experiencing a divergence, with significant focus on commercial aerospace and robotics, which are driving short-term sentiment and risk appetite [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a nine-day winning streak, breaking the annual record, and if it maintains above the five-day moving average, the upward trend may continue [4]

Competitive Landscape - The global landscape is characterized by a "leading countries leading, catching-up countries accelerating" pattern, with the US, Europe, Japan, and South Korea innovating through legislation, subsidies, standards, and talent in advanced manufacturing, AI, quantum technology, and next-generation communications [1] - McKinsey predicts that AI alone could contribute $25.6 trillion to the global economy by 2030, equivalent to 8% of global GDP [1] - GVR forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 21% for humanoid robots from 2023 to 2030 [1] - China is at a critical window for economic transformation, with over 30 provincial-level regions actively implementing future industry policies, marking the start of a comprehensive "top-level strategy + local pilot" approach [1] Development Significance - Future industries are seen as the "main battlefield" for global value chain restructuring and a "first-mover advantage" in cultivating new productive forces and long-term competitive advantages [5] - These industries are characterized by disruptive technological breakthroughs and cross-industry integration, capable of upgrading traditional industries and creating entirely new business models [5] Domestic and International Landscape Overview International Layout - Quantum Technology: Focus on quantum communication, computing, encryption, internet, and sensors across the US, Europe, and Japan [7] - Artificial Intelligence: Common hotspots include brain-like intelligence, small data, next-generation cloud computing, human-computer interaction, and ethical-legal-social issues [7] - Advanced Networks and Communications: Progress in 6G, next-generation wireless networks, secure redundant communications, blockchain, and satellite internet [7] - Hydrogen and Energy Storage: Parallel development of green hydrogen, blue hydrogen, ammonia energy, smart grids, and various energy storage technologies [7] - Biotechnology: Rapid industrialization in precision medicine, gene therapy, synthetic biology, and intelligent biological manufacturing [7] Domestic Layout - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the 2035 vision outline six major directions for future industries: brain-like intelligence, quantum information, gene technology, future networks, deep-sea and aerospace development, and hydrogen and energy storage [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have detailed six fields for future industry innovation: future manufacturing, future information, future materials, future energy, future space, and future health [9] Key Provincial Investments - Beijing: Focus on six major directions with a target of a 3 trillion yuan AI industry scale and a 10 trillion yuan radiation effect [11] - Shanghai: Utilizing "Mosu Space" to gather over 100 large model enterprises and support more than 200 AI companies [12] Research Institutions Highlights - The Chinese Academy of Engineering has identified key areas such as intelligent manufacturing, additive manufacturing, micro-nano manufacturing, and humanoid robots [13] - Various institutions provide multi-dimensional validation on track potential, regional indices, technological trends, and global rankings [13] Ten Key Tracks for Future Industries - The Future Industry Research Center has proposed ten key tracks for 2025, including general artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, cell and gene therapy, commercial aerospace, high-level autonomous driving, new energy storage, clean hydrogen, low-altitude economy, computing chips, and the metaverse [15] Track 1: General Artificial Intelligence - The global landscape shows the US leading while China accelerates, with major players like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Baidu making significant advancements [17] - Beijing and Shanghai have set ambitious targets for AI industry scale and support across various dimensions [17] Track 2: High-Level Autonomous Driving - Diverse technological routes are being pursued by companies like Tesla, Waymo, and Baidu, with significant testing and operational milestones achieved [20][21] Track 3: Commercial Aerospace - Major players like SpaceX and Blue Origin are shaping a global landscape, while China is developing its own capabilities with ambitious industry targets [22][23] Track 4: Humanoid Robots - The industry is concentrated in regions like the Yangtze River Delta, with significant advancements in product capabilities and market potential [24][25] Track 5: New Energy Storage - The global new energy storage capacity is projected to grow significantly, with various technologies being developed and cost reductions anticipated [26] Track 6: Low Altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is emerging with a focus on eVTOL and drones, supported by numerous policies and technological advancements [27] Track 7: Clean Hydrogen - The clean hydrogen sector is evolving with significant production capacity expected from China, the US, and Europe [28] Track 8: Computing Chips - The AI chip market is experiencing explosive demand, with various architectures competing and significant growth projected [29][30] Track 9: Cell and Gene Therapy - Major international and domestic players are advancing in gene therapy, with significant market growth anticipated in China [31][32] Track 10: Metaverse - The metaverse is developing with key players in both Silicon Valley and Beijing, supported by a robust policy framework [33][34] Conclusion - Future industries are not merely linear extensions of single technologies but represent a systemic engineering approach involving scientific discovery, technological invention, industrial transformation, and ecological reconstruction [35]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the commercial aerospace sector, particularly highlighting the potential of private rocket companies and their impact on satellite networking in China [4][7]. Core Insights - The global satellite frequency and orbit resources are limited, with the US leading in the number of satellites in orbit. China is advancing two large-scale internet satellite constellation projects, aiming for a total of approximately 28,000 satellites [4][43]. - In 2024, a total of 263 space launch missions were executed globally, marking an 18% increase from 2023. The US and China accounted for 86% of these launches, with the US conducting 158 missions and China 68 missions [19][24]. - The commercial aerospace market in China is characterized by a dual development model of "national teams and private teams," with private rocket companies expected to enhance launch capacity and reduce costs significantly [4][45]. Summary by Sections Global Launch Activity - In 2024, 263 space launches were conducted globally, with 258 successful missions. The US accounted for 60% of the launches, while China completed 68 launches, representing 26% of the total [19][24][26]. - SpaceX dominated the commercial launch market, executing 117 missions, which is 67% of the global commercial launch count [24][25]. Satellite Constellation Plans - The US has established significant satellite constellation plans, including SpaceX's Starlink with approximately 42,000 satellites and Amazon's Project Kuiper with over 3,200 satellites. China is also advancing its GW constellation and G60 constellation projects [34][36]. Cost Reduction and Technological Advancements - The cost of satellite launches in China has decreased from approximately 115,000 RMB per kilogram in 2020 to about 75,000 RMB per kilogram in 2024, with expectations of further reductions as reusable rocket technology matures [49][51]. - The successful first flight of several private rockets, such as the Zhuque-3, indicates a growing capacity in the commercial launch sector, which is crucial for meeting the demands of satellite constellation deployments [4][51]. Policy Support and Market Dynamics - Recent government policies have elevated commercial aerospace to a national strategic priority, encouraging private investment and innovation in the sector [48][49]. - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing policy support to address key challenges in the commercial aerospace industry, particularly in enhancing launch capabilities and fostering technological advancements [4][58].

Core Points - The Japanese space technology startup "iSpace" faced another failure in its lunar lander "Hakuto-R" attempt to land on the moon's surface on June 6 [1] - The CEO of "iSpace," Takashi Okada, indicated that telemetry data disappeared suddenly before landing, leading to the conclusion that a hard landing on the moon likely occurred [1] - The specific reasons for the landing failure are still under investigation [1] Mission Details - The mission named "Hakuto-R Lunar Exploration" was a follow-up to the previous attempt with "Hakuto-R 1" in December 2022, which also failed to complete the lunar landing [1] - The "Hakuto-R" lander was launched on January 15, 2025, aboard SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket and entered lunar orbit on May 7 [2] - The lander was equipped with several payloads, including a mini lunar rover, a water electrolysis device for the lunar surface, and a deep space radiation detector, with the planned landing site in the "Mare Frigoris" in the northern hemisphere of the moon [2] Technical Issues - It was confirmed that the laser altimeter measuring the distance between the lander and the moon's surface experienced delays, and the lander did not decelerate sufficiently to achieve the necessary landing speed [2] - The lander began its descent from an altitude of approximately 100 kilometers to about 20 kilometers, where the main engine ignited as planned, but telemetry data was lost during the descent [1][2]