前言 聊起创新药，不少人会被"全球行业升级""中国后来居上"的大趋势吸引。 但真正深入后会发现，这行更像"戴着金手铐跳舞"，巨大的机遇背后藏着常人难以想象的风险。 尤其是今年A股、港股创新药板块先强后弱，三月市场低迷时它逆势上涨，七月后却跟不上科技板块的 节奏，很多投资者疑惑：这行业的风险到底在哪？药企怎么扛住压力？普通人又该怎么参与？ 高投入背后的"三重风险迷雾" 创新药研发就像"在黑暗里摸路"，你不知道下一步是平地还是悬崖，而且一旦悬崖，前面的投入基本就 打了水漂。 再看资金与时间的风险，十年周期意味着什么？意味着药企要在漫长的研发期里持续"烧钱"，从实验室 设备、科研人员薪酬到临床试验费用，每一笔都是巨款。 对中小药企来说，这更是生死考验，如果融资环境收紧，比如一级市场资金对创新药热情降温，或者二 级市场股价低迷融不到钱，哪怕管线再有潜力，也可能撑不到临床后期。 提到创新药，绕不开"两个十"的说法，"十年时间、十亿美金"！ 可即便砸了这么多资源，最后仍可能"竹篮打水一场空"。 这种高风险不是空谈，而是贯穿研发、资金、商业化全流程的"三座大山"。 先说最核心的研发风险，一款新药从"想法"到"上市"，要闯过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The disparity in performance between Hong Kong and A-share pharmaceutical stocks is attributed to the perceived growth potential in overseas markets, while the domestic market faces challenges due to past centralized procurement practices [1][2]. Group 1: Centralized Procurement Impact - Centralized procurement is viewed as a significant challenge for A-share pharmaceutical companies, with the recent announcement of the 11th batch of drug procurement emphasizing a "reverse inward competition" approach [2][5]. - The new procurement rules aim to prevent companies from quoting abnormally low prices, ensuring that selected companies can maintain profitability [5][12]. - The focus of this procurement round is to improve the pricing mechanism, benefiting large leading companies with better cost control [5][6]. Group 2: Beneficiaries of Procurement Changes - The companies likely to benefit from the new procurement rules include domestic pharmaceutical leaders, companies previously affected by procurement issues in medical devices and vaccines, and innovative drug companies [5][6]. - The market sentiment is expected to improve for innovative drug ETFs, with a potential for valuation recovery driven by enhanced profitability in the pharmaceutical sector [6][8]. Group 3: ETF Performance and Market Trends - The performance of various pharmaceutical ETFs is analyzed, with innovative drug ETFs showing a strong recovery potential due to market sentiment [6][8]. - The biopharmaceutical ETF category is broad, encompassing various sectors, and is expected to benefit from the new procurement policies [8][10]. - Medical device ETFs are highlighted for their growth potential, although they carry higher risks due to their sensitivity to procurement changes [10][11]. Group 4: Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Insights - The impact of centralized procurement on TCM is limited, with more significant opportunities arising from fluctuations in raw material prices rather than procurement policies [14][17]. - The valuation of the TCM sector is currently low, presenting a potential opportunity for stable investors [14][17].

Core Insights - The innovative drug ETF Tianhong (517380) has reached a new high in scale, totaling 1.283 billion yuan and 1.474 billion shares as of September 16, 2025 [3][4] - The biopharmaceutical ETF (159859) has shown significant growth, with a recent net inflow of 1.72 billion yuan over the past five trading days, ranking first among comparable funds [4][5] - Recent regulatory changes by the National Medical Products Administration aim to enhance the efficiency of clinical trial approvals for innovative drugs, potentially boosting the sector's growth [7][8] Fund Performance - The innovative drug ETF Tianhong (517380) has recorded a trading volume of 37.49 million yuan on September 17, 2025, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Huyou Pharmaceutical (688553) and WuXi AppTec (02359) [2] - The biopharmaceutical ETF (159859) has seen a trading volume of 115 million yuan, with notable increases in stocks like Baillie Tianheng (688506) and WuXi AppTec (603259) [3] - The innovative drug ETF Tianhong (517380) has a weekly volatility of 9.74%, indicating a more stable performance compared to other indices in the sector [5] Market Trends - The innovative drug sector has shown resilience, with an average revenue growth of 35% among 393 pharmaceutical companies listed in A-shares and Hong Kong in the first half of 2025, driven by favorable medical insurance policies [7] - The recent fluctuations in the stock price of the Hong Kong-listed innovative drug company, Jiajie Ankang, have sparked discussions due to its inclusion in multiple indices, although it is not part of the indices tracked by Tianhong's ETFs [4][5] Regulatory Environment - The National Medical Products Administration's recent announcement aims to streamline the approval process for innovative drug clinical trials, potentially leading to a more efficient development cycle for new drugs [8] - The regulatory changes are expected to instill confidence in innovative drug companies, supporting a comprehensive development framework that includes research, market entry, and clinical application [8]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strategy based on sector rotation and thematic ETFs, suggesting a focus on sectors like chemical pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and aerospace equipment for the upcoming week [2][3]. - The model portfolio has shown a cumulative net return of approximately 3.12% for the period from September 8 to September 12, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by about 1.65% [4]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in the following ETFs: - Sci-Tech Chip Design ETF - Traditional Chinese Medicine ETF - Biomedicine ETF - Continued holdings are suggested for: - Pharmaceutical ETF - Aerospace ETF - Satellite ETF [3][12]. Performance Tracking - Since October 14, 2024, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of approximately 25.17%, with an excess return of about 6.13% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [4]. - The average return of the ETF portfolio for the recent week was 3.12%, with a notable excess return of 1.65% over the CSI 300 ETF [13]. ETF Holdings and Signals - The report details specific ETFs and their respective weights, indicating a continued hold or adjustment based on market signals: - Pharmaceutical ETF (58.63% weight) - continue holding - Semiconductor ETF (96.38% weight) - newly added - Aerospace ETF (58.23% weight) - continue holding - Satellite ETF (32.59% weight) - continue holding [12][13]. Market Timing Signals - The timing signals for the ETFs are based on volume and price indicators, with values of 1 indicating bullish signals, 0 neutral, and -1 bearish [4].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant emotional sell-off yesterday but showed a rebound today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.24% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 3.89% [5] - The market is expected to remain within a 4% fluctuation range, with a high likelihood of multiple attempts to break through this range [3][6] Investment Strategy - Short-term investors are advised to pay close attention to emotional changes, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high, while sector rotation is recommended [3][6] - For medium to long-term investors, the market's strong support from external funds indicates that any intraday pullbacks should be seen as opportunities to increase positions [3][14] Sector Performance - The biopharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance, with the Guotai Innovation Drug ETF (517110) outperforming the CITIC Pharmaceutical Industry Index by over 40% this year [14] - The application of AI in innovative drug development is expected to provide significant valuation space and momentum for the sector, with a high tolerance for task errors enhancing the positive impact of AI [14][15] Gold Market Insights - London gold prices have reached a historical high of over 3500 points, supported by geopolitical tensions and concerns over the U.S. economic outlook [4][19] - The weakening of the dollar's credit system due to challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence further strengthens the long-term logic supporting gold as a stable asset [18][19] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, India-Pakistan, and Russia-Ukraine are contributing to heightened market risk aversion, which supports gold prices [18] - The potential for a "stagnation" scenario in the U.S. economy, characterized by inflation and economic stagnation, is increasing investor interest in gold as a hedge against asset depreciation [17][19]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant emotional sell-off yesterday, followed by a rebound today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.24% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 3.89% [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a notable increase of 6.55%, driven by a surge in heavyweight stocks, while the trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 2.3 trillion, still down by over 200 billion compared to yesterday [1] - Key sectors that performed well included batteries, energy metals, photovoltaic equipment, wind power equipment, and power supply equipment, while the previously resilient dividend sector underperformed [1] Market Sentiment and Trends - The market is expected to continue the oscillating trend observed last week, with a notable drop after reaching a high point in the trading range [1] - The recent rebound indicates short-term support around 3730, but whether the market can effectively break through the two-week oscillation range remains to be seen [1] - The current market correction of 4% is viewed as likely having ended, with expectations that any subsequent fluctuations will not lead to significant downward movement [1][7] Historical Context - Historical analysis shows that in previous strong market rallies, the maximum drawdowns have typically exceeded the current level, with notable corrections of over 8% following significant gains [2][3][5] - The current market's ability to halt declines at a 4% level suggests a maturation of the A-share market and a stronger capital inflow, reducing volatility [7] Investment Strategy - Short-term investors are advised to focus on emotional changes in the market, suggesting a strategy of high selling and low buying, while sector rotation is recommended [7] - Long-term investors face less operational difficulty, as the market's recent emotional low has not approached the ten-year high of 3731, indicating a bullish outlook [7] Biopharmaceutical Sector - The biopharmaceutical sector showed strong performance, with the Guotai Innovation Drug ETF rising by 4.35% and the Biopharmaceutical ETF increasing by 4.25% [8] - The Guotai Innovation Drug ETF has outperformed the CITIC Pharmaceutical Industry Index by over 40% this year, driven by positive sentiment and the application of AI in drug development [8][10] - Upcoming industry events, such as the World Lung Cancer Conference and the ESMO Annual Meeting, are expected to catalyze market activity and enhance optimism in the sector [9][10] AI in Drug Development - The integration of AI in drug development is anticipated to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, particularly in drug molecule and protein structure design [11] - AI's ability to predict drug interactions and optimize molecular structures is expected to streamline the drug development process, potentially leading to faster commercialization of innovative drugs [11][12] Gold Market Outlook - The gold market is supported by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with spot gold prices recently surpassing 3500 points [12][14] - Concerns over the U.S. economy and inflation risks are driving investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, reinforcing its long-term value proposition [12][14] - The weakening of the dollar's credit system due to challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence further supports gold's appeal as a stable investment [13][14]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the Biopharmaceutical ETF (512290) has seen significant net buying activity, with a net purchase of 2.76 million yuan on August 13, 2025, and a total of 8.07 million yuan net bought over the last three trading days [1][2][3] - The financing balance for the Biopharmaceutical ETF reached 111 million yuan, with 14 out of the last 20 trading days showing net buying activity [1][2] - The total margin trading balance increased to 112 million yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.54% compared to the previous day [3] Group 2 - The financing net purchases on August 12 and August 11 were 609,100 yuan and 4.70 million yuan, respectively, indicating a consistent trend of net buying [2][3] - The margin trading balance has shown a steady increase over the past few days, with notable changes of 469,540 yuan on August 11 and 276,600 yuan on August 13 [3] - The conditions for individual investors to participate in margin trading include having at least six months of trading experience and an average account asset of 500,000 yuan over the last 20 trading days [4]

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a positive trend, with the innovative drug ETF (517110) rising by 4.26% and the biopharmaceutical ETF (512290) increasing by 2.72% [1] - Heng Rui Medicine has reached a license-out cooperation agreement with GSK worth over $10 billion, which includes an upfront payment of $500 million and potential milestone payments totaling approximately $12 billion [1] - The strong performance of CXO leader WuXi AppTec, which revised its 2025 half-year performance guidance upwards, reflects the resilience of the innovative drug industry and boosts market confidence in the sector [1] Group 2 - The government has introduced multiple policies to optimize drug procurement and support innovative drugs, indicating a favorable policy environment for the pharmaceutical industry [2] - The newly issued Sci-Tech Innovation Drug ETF (589723) aims to track the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Innovative Drug Index, which has shown stronger rebound potential compared to the broader market [2]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 609 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.64%, the ChiNext Index surged by 1.86%, and the CSI 500 Index gained 0.50% [1] AI and Computing Hardware Sector - The AI computing hardware sector saw significant gains, driven by increased capital expenditures from overseas cloud providers entering a performance release phase, steady improvements in domestic computing infrastructure products, and a potential easing of US-China trade tensions [3] - Google raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to $85 billion, primarily for AI servers and data center construction, with its cloud computing revenue reaching $13.6 billion, a 32% year-over-year increase [4] - The demand for NVIDIA's H20 chips in China is estimated to exceed current inventory by more than 100%, indicating a substantial supply-demand gap that may be filled by the upcoming B30 chip [5][6] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector continued to perform well, with the Innovation Drug ETF rising by 4.26% and the Biopharmaceutical ETF increasing by 2.72% [8] - A significant licensing agreement was reached between Hengrui Medicine and GSK, with GSK paying a $500 million upfront fee and potential milestone payments totaling approximately $12 billion [8] - The CXO leader WuXi AppTec reported strong performance and raised its annual guidance, reflecting the robust growth of the innovative drug industry [8] Policy and Investment Opportunities - The government has introduced favorable policies for drug procurement and support for innovative drugs, with a new childcare subsidy scheme set to begin in 2025 [9] - Investors are encouraged to consider the Innovation Drug ETF and the newly issued Science and Technology Innovation Drug ETF, which tracks biotech-focused indices with higher growth potential [9] Stablecoin Developments - The stablecoin sector saw a late surge, with the Software ETF rising by 1.57%. Hong Kong's stablecoin legislation is set to take effect on August 1, 2025, which may accelerate the launch of legal stablecoins [10][11] - The Shanghai municipal government is increasing its focus on the development of stablecoins, which could enhance the efficiency of cross-border payments and support the internationalization of the renminbi [11]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a bull phase, with significant losses reported among short sellers in commodity and stock index futures. The article suggests that the most certain investment opportunities in a bull market are either in leading sectors or in severely undervalued stocks [2]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The article emphasizes that low-priced stocks tend to be driven up to reasonable levels during a bull market, indicating that underperforming sectors may see substantial gains due to ongoing liquidity and policy support [2]. - The upcoming major meetings are expected to enhance expectations for "stabilizing growth," which may provide considerable policy space for undervalued industries [2]. Group 2: ETF Analysis - The article utilizes the net value percentile calculation method to assess which sectors are currently in a state of severe undervaluation [3]. - A table is provided showing various ETFs, their net value percentiles since 2023 and 2024, and their performance in 2025, highlighting sectors like photovoltaic, alcohol, and real estate [7]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The photovoltaic sector is identified as particularly undervalued, with ETFs like the photovoltaic ETF (515790.SH) and new energy ETF (516160.SH) showing significant declines. The sector's performance is closely tied to government policies aimed at stabilizing growth [9][10]. - The alcohol sector, particularly the alcohol ETF (512690.SH), is also noted for being in a state of decline, with a lack of clear catalysts for recovery until consumer data improves [20][21]. - The real estate sector shows signs of divergence, with the real estate ETF (159707.SZ) experiencing intermittent policy-driven rallies but ultimately returning to lower levels [25][26]. Group 4: Medical and Pharmaceutical Sector - The medical and pharmaceutical sectors are highlighted as being collectively undervalued, with various ETFs like the biopharmaceutical ETF (159859.SZ) showing potential for recovery due to recent policy shifts regarding procurement practices [33][35]. - The medical ETF (512170.SH) is also mentioned as being in a relatively low valuation position, with a modest performance outlook [39]. Group 5: Commodity and Chemical Sectors - The coal sector has seen a significant price drop but is experiencing a rebound due to rising prices in coking coal and coke futures, with the coal ETF (515220.SH) reflecting this trend [43][45]. - The chemical sector is noted for its broad product range and recent price increases in lithium carbonate, with the chemical ETF (159870.SZ) positioned as relatively undervalued [49][54]. Conclusion - The article concludes that sectors such as chemicals, biopharmaceuticals, medical, alcohol, and photovoltaic are currently in a state of severe undervaluation, presenting potential investment opportunities for discerning investors [56].