21世纪经济报道记者肖夏 国际啤酒巨头正在陆续交底。 北京时间2月11日下午、2月12日早间，喜力集团、百威亚太先后披露了2025年的全年业绩，整体都呈现增速放缓、销量下行的趋势。 按照国际财务报告准则，喜力集团2025年实现净收入287.53亿欧元，净利润18.85亿欧元，连续两年同比下跌，销量也再次转为下滑。为此，喜力集团已经调 低2026年的增长预期，并提出要节省4至5亿欧元的成本，具体举措包括裁员5000至6000人。 而百威亚太2025年实现收入57.64亿美元，同比内生下滑6.1%，正常化除息税折旧摊销前盈利（Normalised EBITDA）15.88亿美元，同比内生下滑9.8%，其 中股权持有人应占溢利4.89亿美元，同比大幅下滑32%以上——这一净利润表现，是百威亚太上市以来的新低。 百威英博尚未披露全球业绩，但从其去年三季报和百威亚太的全年业绩来看，百威去年整体的业绩大概率仍处于下行区间。 酒卖不动，如今已不是单独一家企业的问题。面对这一局面持续，龙头正在纷纷采取换帅、裁员、降本、控预期等一系列举措。 喜力降本连环招：降速、裁员、关停 尽管在中国市场高歌猛进，喜力在全球整体依然面临着降速 ...

记者丨肖夏 百威英博尚未披露全球业绩，但从其去年三季报和百威亚太的全年业绩来看，百威去年整体的业绩大概率仍处于下行区间。 酒卖不动，如今已不是单独一家企业的问题。面对这一局面持续，龙头正在纷纷采取换帅、裁员、降本、控预期等一系列举措。 喜力降本连环招：降速、裁员、关停 尽管在中国市场高歌猛进，喜力在全球整体依然面临着降速现实。 2月11日，喜力集团（Heineken）发布2025年全年业绩报告，按照IFRS口径全年业绩呈现"销售收入、运营利润、销量齐降"的局面——去年收 入同比下滑4.7%、其中净收入同比下滑3.6%，运营利润同比下滑3.2%，销量同比下滑1.2%。 编辑丨高梦阳 国际啤酒巨头正在陆续交底。 北京时间2月11日下午、2月12日早间，喜力集团、百威亚太先后披露了2025年的全年业绩，整体都呈现增速放缓、销量下行的趋势。 按照国际财务报告准则，喜力集团2025年实现净收入287.53亿欧元，净利润18.85亿欧元，连续两年同比下跌，销量也再次转为下滑。 为此， 喜力集团已经调低2026年的增长预期，并提出要节省4至5亿欧元的成本，具体举措包括裁员5000至6000人。 而百威亚太2025年实现收入 ...

Core Viewpoint - China’s largest beer giant, China Resources Beer, has officially relocated its headquarters from Beijing to Shenzhen, marking a strategic shift towards southern markets and high-end product development [2][6][10]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Relocation - The relocation to Shenzhen is part of a broader strategy to enhance collaboration within the supply chain and tap into the growing market potential in Guangdong, which is projected to produce 4.75 million kiloliters of beer in 2024, making it the largest beer province in China [7][10]. - The new headquarters will not only serve as a decision-making center but will also integrate research, development, and brand experience, facilitating innovation and internal collaboration [10][12]. - The move is seen as a response to the challenges faced in the northeastern market, where the company has been closing inefficient factories and reducing its operational footprint [6][12]. Group 2: Market Performance and Financials - The company has experienced a decline in sales and profits due to market saturation and operational adjustments, with a reported revenue of 38.635 billion RMB in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.76% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.739 billion RMB, down 8.03% [18][19]. - The beer segment showed a revenue increase of 2.6% in the first half of 2025, while the white wine segment saw a significant decline of nearly 34%, indicating a disparity in performance across product lines [18][20]. - The company has faced challenges in its high-end product strategy, with its own brands lagging behind partners like Heineken, which saw over 30% growth in high-end products [21][22]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - The exit from the northeastern market has not been without difficulties, including high costs associated with asset disposals and the impact on local employment and tax revenues [12][16]. - The company is exploring new product categories, such as yellow wine, in an attempt to innovate and expand its market presence, although the long-term success of these initiatives remains uncertain [23][24]. - As competition intensifies from both traditional beer rivals and new entrants from other industries, the company must navigate the complexities of market dynamics while maintaining a focus on high-end product development and operational efficiency [26].

Group 1 - China Resources Beer has officially relocated its headquarters from Beijing to the Snowflake Innovation City in Bao'an, Shenzhen, with the new 180-meter headquarters building now in operation [1] - Established in 1993, China Resources Beer is a subsidiary of China Resources (Group) Company, focusing on the production, sales, and distribution of beer products, with a total of 60 breweries across the country and an annual production capacity of approximately 19.2 million kiloliters by June 30, 2025 [3] - The company has developed a high-end brand matrix that includes four domestic brands and four international brands, catering to various market segments [3] Group 2 - The Snowflake Innovation City project, co-developed by China Resources Land and China Resources Snow Beer, spans approximately 1.15 million square meters and integrates headquarters offices, R&D, high-end manufacturing, and technology experiences [5] - The project aims to create an innovative industrial ecosystem focused on information technology and intelligent manufacturing, attracting over 80 well-known companies, including 9 listed companies and 49 national high-tech enterprises [5] - Additionally, the project features the Snow Beer Town, a commercial space of nearly 50,000 square meters that combines retail, dining, and entertainment, with over 120 brands already established, more than 40% of which are city or regional first stores [5]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint The Dandong Market Supervision Administration has released recent food safety inspection results, indicating that out of 80 batches of food tested, 74 were found to be compliant while 6 were deemed non-compliant. The non-compliant items include snack foods, condiments, and meat products. Relevant authorities have initiated investigations and corrective actions regarding the non-compliant products [3]. Group 1: Inspection Results - A total of 80 batches of food were tested, with 74 passing and 6 failing the safety standards [3]. - The categories of food tested include beverages, edible oils, agricultural products, meat products, grain products, alcoholic beverages, and pastries [3]. - The non-compliant products specifically include snack foods and nuts, condiments for dining, and meat products [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions - The Dandong Market Supervision Administration has commenced verification and handling procedures for the non-compliant food items [3]. - The announcement serves as a public disclosure of the food safety inspection results, adhering to the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China [3].

Core Insights - The beer industry in China is facing significant challenges due to a decline in on-the-go consumption, decreasing contributions from traditional channels, and a reduction in alcohol consumption willingness [1] - The overall production of beer has decreased, with major companies experiencing performance pressures, leading to a noticeable market segmentation [1] Industry Performance - Budweiser APAC reported a total beer sales volume of 4.363 billion liters in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 6.1%, with revenue at $3.136 billion, down 5.6% [2] - In China, the sales volume decreased by 8.2%, with revenue and revenue per hectoliter dropping by 9.5% and 1.4%, respectively, leading to a market share decline to around 40% [2] - The cumulative production of large-scale beer enterprises in China reached 35.213 million kiloliters in 2024, a decrease of 0.6% from the previous year, only about 70% of the peak level ten years ago [2] Regional Market Dynamics - Local brands like Yanjing Beer and Chongqing Beer have shown strong competitiveness through product innovation and marketing strategies, solidifying their market share [2] - Some brands exhibit significant regional dependency, with one brand generating nearly 70% of its revenue from Shandong, while another brand has over 60% of its revenue from Chongqing, Chengdu, and Sichuan [2][3] Growth Strategies - To achieve further growth, brands need to deepen their regional market strategies, focusing on both consolidating their positions in existing strongholds and exploring new growth points [3] - A brand successfully avoided direct competition with eastern giants by acquiring local brands in Yunnan, focusing on the western market [3] High-End and Differentiation Strategies - High-end product strategies have shown mixed results, with some brands experiencing a decline in revenue despite a high proportion of mid-to-high-end products [4] - Conversely, certain brands have achieved significant growth in high-end product revenue, with one brand's mid-to-high-end product revenue share exceeding 70% and a year-on-year increase of 9.32% [4] Consumer Trends - The demand for cost-effective beer has resurged, with low-priced products gaining traction among consumers, particularly in the context of slowing income growth among migrant workers [6] - Brands are encouraged to adjust their product strategies to focus on value for money, optimizing production processes to lower costs while maintaining quality [6][7] Diversification and Innovation - Some brands are exploring diversification by entering new beverage categories, such as acquiring stakes in yellow wine and launching soft drinks [9] - The Z generation, aged 18-24, is becoming a significant consumer group, with their preferences shifting towards emotional value and experiences rather than traditional drinking culture [9] Channel Transformation - The beer sales channel is undergoing structural changes, with the share of on-the-go channels declining from over 50% to about 40%, while non-on-the-go channels like convenience stores are growing [13] - Brands are encouraged to collaborate with convenience stores and leverage e-commerce to enhance sales, with instant retail platforms showing significant growth potential [14] Operational Efficiency and Sustainability - Improving operational efficiency is crucial for long-term success, focusing on production, supply chain, and decision-making processes [15] - Brands are increasingly adopting sustainable practices, with some reducing their carbon footprint significantly, which is becoming a key factor for consumer preference [15][16] Market Outlook - The beer industry has experienced a downturn over the past two years but shows signs of potential recovery, although uncertainties remain due to high-end market segmentation and channel transformations [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resilience and growth of the beer business, while the white wine segment is undergoing adjustments due to stricter policies and market conditions [1][2][3] - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 23.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.789 billion yuan, up 23.0% year-on-year [1] - The beer segment generated revenue of 23.161 billion yuan, with a volume of 6.487 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in revenue and 2.2% in volume [1] Group 2 - The white wine segment saw a revenue decline of 33.7% in H1 2025, with major products accounting for nearly 80% of white wine revenue, significantly impacted by stricter policies affecting high-end banquets [2] - The overall sales gross margin increased by 2.0 percentage points to 48.9%, with the beer business gross margin rising by 2.4 percentage points to 48.3% [2] - The company implemented a "three precision" strategy, resulting in a reduction of the sales expense ratio by 2.0 percentage points to 15.6% [2] Group 3 - The company updated its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 6.017 billion, 6.106 billion, and 6.548 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook driven by beer premiumization and cost advantages [3] - The current price-to-earnings ratios for the updated forecasts are 14.0, 13.8, and 12.9 times [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.24%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.43%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreasing by 0.77% [2] - The total market turnover dropped to HKD 239.49 billion, with short selling amounting to HKD 36.19 billion, representing 16.74% of the total turnover [2] - Southbound trading saw a net inflow of HKD 7.461 billion, with Tencent Holdings, Meituan, and Xiaomi being the most actively bought stocks [2] Group 2: Company Analysis - China Resources Beer (291.HK) - China Resources Beer reported a total revenue of RMB 23.94 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit of RMB 5.76 billion, up 21.6% [7][10] - The beer business revenue reached RMB 23.16 billion, with a volume of 6.487 million kiloliters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.6% and 2.2% respectively [8] - The average selling price of beer increased to RMB 3,570 per kiloliter, a 0.4% rise year-on-year, driven by a shift towards higher-end products [8] - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to RMB 5.83 billion, RMB 5.94 billion, and RMB 6.29 billion respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating and raising the target price from HKD 41.8 to HKD 42.6 [7][10] Group 3: Industry Trends - The Chinese beer market showed resilience with China Resources Beer achieving growth despite a 0.3% decline in overall beer production in the first half of 2025 [8] - The premium and above beer segment saw significant growth, with certain brands like Heineken and Snow Beer reporting over 20% and 70% growth respectively [8] - The white liquor segment faced challenges, with revenue dropping by 33% to RMB 780 million, and EBIT turning negative at RMB -150 million [9]

Company Research - Futu Holdings (FUTU) is rated "Buy" with a target price of $195.00, representing a potential upside of 15.71% from the current price of $168.52[3][14] - Haitong International (1882) is rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 30.00, maintaining the same EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026[2][12] - China Resources Beer (291) is rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 35.00, reflecting an 18x PE for 2025, with a projected EPS growth of 8% for 2026[2][28] Financial Performance - Futu Holdings expects total revenue to grow from HKD 10,008 million in 2023 to HKD 19,531 million in 2025, a growth rate of 43.7%[12] - The net profit for Futu Holdings is projected to increase from HKD 4,279 million in 2023 to HKD 9,413 million in 2025, representing a growth of 73.3%[12] - China Resources Beer reported a net profit of HKD 57.9 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23%[24] Market Trends - Futu Holdings is leveraging its technology and regulatory licenses to capture the cross-border wealth management market, with a focus on Southeast Asia and Web 3.0 innovations[10][8] - China Resources Beer is focusing on premiumization, with high-end product sales growing over 10%, significantly outperforming the industry[25][27] - Haitong International's overseas sales surged by 34.7% year-on-year, driven by demand in Southeast Asia and a strategic focus on key industry clients[20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer [1] Core Views - The company's profitability is driven by premiumization, cost advantages, and effective management strategies, with a notable increase in gross profit margin [3][4] - The beer segment shows resilience with significant sales growth in premium products, while the liquor segment is undergoing adjustments due to regulatory impacts [4][10] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 38,932 million, with a slight increase to 39,155 million in 2025, and further growth expected in subsequent years [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 5,153 million in 2023 to 6,017 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 26.97% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to increase from 1.59 in 2023 to 1.85 in 2025, with a corresponding decrease in P/E ratio from 16.38 to 14.02 [1] Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 239.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a net profit of 57.89 billion, up 23.0% [10] - The beer revenue for the same period was 231.61 billion, reflecting a 2.6% increase, with sales volume reaching 648.7 thousand tons, a 2.2% rise [10] - Premium products like Heineken and Snow Beer saw sales growth exceeding 20% and 70% respectively, indicating strong market demand [10]