专家交流 - 钨价何去何从 20250824 摘要 全球钨需求稳定增长，年增长率约 1.2%，主要驱动力来自高端制造业， 特别是航天航空和军工领域，每年消耗约 11 万吨纯金属量的钨，相当 于 22 万吨标准吨的钨精矿。 中国是全球钨供应的主导者，提供约 80%的需求量。2024 年中国原生 钨精矿产量为 13.35 万吨，远不能满足市场需求，再生钨原料成为重要 补充，部分工厂再生物料使用比例已提升至 30%。 近期小金属市场供需变化导致钨价迅猛上涨，55 度钨精矿价格已达每吨 22 万元，APT 价格接近 33 万元，创历史新高，较 2024 年全年平均价 位上涨超过 50%。 钨价上涨的主要原因包括：自然资源部减少钨配额，商务部和海关总署 加强出口管控，国际市场涨价显著，以及俄乌战争等地缘政治冲突导致 军工需求预期增加，上游企业利润较高。 中国政府加强打击废旧金属走私力度，减少了废旧金属供应，加剧了市 场紧张局势。军工领域对钨的直接和间接消费需求均显著增加，大规模 军备竞赛将进一步推高需求。 Q&A 请简要介绍钨行业的产业链结构。 钨行业的产业链分为上游、中游和下游。上游包括采矿业、选矿业以及废物回 收加 ...

专家会议：钨行业供需及后市展望 20250822 摘要 全球钨消费量约为每年 11 万吨纯钨，中国占比 60%，且在储量、消费、 贸易和供应方面均居世界首位，对全球钨市场具有重要影响。 2025 年初以来，钨精矿、APT 及钨粉价格上涨约 50%，达历史最高涨 幅，主要受战略价值回归预期驱动，而非基本面供需关系。 中国对钨品出口管控新规（2025 年 2 月 4 日）直接导致国际 APT 价格 飙升，国内外价差显著，表明中国政策变动对全球市场有重大影响。 中国五大钨企业（中钨高新、厦门钨业等）控制全国近一半产量，资源 集中度高，对国内外市场具有举足轻重的影响力。 尽管 2025 年钨市场供应与去年持平，但受战争因素和预期影响，库存 补充需求增加，消费略有增长，价格大幅上涨。 当前钨行业上下游利润分配不均，上游矿山利润率超 60%，中游冶炼业 利润率不足 3%，不利于产业链健康发展，亟需合理调整。 预计 2026 年钨需求将因军事用途增加而增长，同时中国收紧钨开采配 额将导致供应减少，可能进一步推高钨价。 Q&A 今年以来钨行业整体价格表现强势，您能否介绍一下钨行业的结构及其产业链 情况？ 钨行业的产业链分为上 ...

公司第二季度归属净利润 5.8 亿元，扣非后归属净利润 9.23 亿元，同 比增长 7.53%。剔除去年同期地产资产处置收益等一次性因素后，公司 整体利润总额同比增长 3.61%，归属净利同比增长 7.75%。 截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，公司总资产 471 亿元，较上年末增长 3.64%；归母净资产 163 亿元，增长 2.32%。加权平均净资产收益率 15.96%，同比减少 2.79 个百分点，主要受再融资影响。经营活动现金 流净额约 8 亿元，同比减少，因经营规模扩大，存货占用资金增加。 钨钼板块贡献公司 46%的营收和 75%的利润总额，能源新材料贡献接 近 40%的营收和 20%的利润总额，稀土贡献 14%的营收和约 7%的利 润总额。上半年国内 65%黑钨精矿均价约 15 万元/吨，APT 均价创历史 新高，达到 22.29 万元/吨。 公司钨行业市场格局稳固，APT 等产品位居国内前列，硬质合金数控刀 片份额提升。光伏用钨丝渗透率超 80%，全球领先。上半年钨钼板块实 现营收 88.63 亿元，利润总额 12.68 亿元，剔除一次性影响后，利润总 额同比下降 6%。 Q&A 厦门钨业 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that the long-term quotes from major tungsten manufacturers have significantly increased, suggesting a continued upward trend in tungsten prices due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [1][2]. Price Trends - As of August 5, the prices for black tungsten concentrate, APT, and tungsten carbide powder have risen by 12%, 13%, and 14% respectively compared to early July, with current prices at 194,500 CNY/ton, 285,000 CNY/ton, and 422,500 CNY/ton [2]. - The long-term quotes for major manufacturers in early August include: Xiamen Tungsten Industry at 279,500 CNY/ton for APT, Zhangyuan Tungsten at 192,500 CNY/ton for black tungsten concentrate and 283,000 CNY/ton for APT, and Jiangxi Tungsten Group at 194,000 CNY/ton for black tungsten concentrate [2]. Market Dynamics - The current strong performance of tungsten prices is driven by three factors: the manufacturing sector is at a cyclical low, inventory levels among industries and traders are low, and external tungsten prices have been rising since June, reflecting a recovery in exports [3]. - The price gap between domestic and international tungsten prices has reached historical highs, indicating strong demand for domestic products as external markets recover [3]. Supply Situation - The long-term quotes from major manufacturers are close to market price announcements, indicating that the tight supply situation persists [4]. - The Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan has resumed normal shipments since May, with an average monthly output of around 800 tons. However, the domestic tungsten price remains strong, suggesting that local demand and supply constraints have effectively mitigated any potential market disruption from this new supply [5]. Investment Recommendations - Companies positioned at both ends of the tungsten industry chain are expected to benefit from the rising tungsten prices. Recommended stocks include Zhongtung High-tech (000657.SZ) and Anyuan Coal Industry (600397.SH), with related stocks being Xiamen Tungsten Industry (600549.SH), Zhangyuan Tungsten (002378.SZ), and Xianglu Tungsten (002842.SZ) [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies involved in the tungsten industry, specifically recommending Zhongtung High-tech and Anyuan Coal Industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The tungsten price is expected to continue rising due to tight supply and demand dynamics, with significant price increases observed in various tungsten products as of early August [1][2]. - The report identifies three main reasons for the strong performance of tungsten prices: the manufacturing sector is at a cyclical bottom, low inventory levels prompting restocking, and a recovery in export demand since June [2][3]. - The long-term outlook for tungsten prices remains positive due to persistent supply constraints and the scarcity of resources, which is likely to elevate the price center [4]. Summary by Sections Market Prices - As of August 5, 2023, black tungsten concentrate prices reached 194,500 CNY/ton, up 12% from early July; APT prices were 285,000 CNY/ton, up 13%; and tungsten carbide powder prices were 422,500 CNY/ton, up 14% [1]. Long-term Quotes - Major companies have set long-term quotes close to market prices, indicating ongoing raw material shortages. For instance, Xiamen Tungsten's APT quote was 279,500 CNY/ton, while Zhangyuan Tungsten's black tungsten concentrate was quoted at 192,500 CNY/ton [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic tungsten price remains strong despite the normal output from the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan, which has a capacity of nearly 10,000 tons of tungsten concentrate per year. The market has absorbed this supply increase without significant price drops [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that short-term price elasticity will be driven by restocking and export recovery, while long-term supply issues will support higher tungsten prices. Recommended stocks include Zhongtung High-tech and Anyuan Coal Industry, with related stocks being Xiamen Tungsten, Zhangyuan Tungsten, and Xianglu Tungsten [4].

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Industry Overview - The tungsten market prices have continued to rise, with domestic black tungsten concentrate, APT, and tungsten iron prices reported at 179,000 yuan, 260,000 yuan, and 265,000 yuan per ton respectively, marking increases of 25%, 23.5%, and 24.4% since the beginning of the year [1] - A new round of price adjustments by institutions and tungsten enterprises has enhanced market bullish sentiment, supporting the upward trend in tungsten prices [1] - The Ministry of Natural Resources issued a total mining quota of 58,000 tons for tungsten in April, which is a reduction of 4,000 tons and 5,000 tons compared to 2024 and 2023 respectively [1] - The quality of tungsten ore in China has declined, with tungsten ore and concentrate grades decreasing from 0.42% and 66.57% in 2004 to 0.28% and 56.08% in 2020, further limiting capacity release [1] - There has been no significant increase in domestic supply in recent years, and overseas supply from Bakuta and Sandong tungsten mines may be lower than expected, reinforcing tight supply logic [1] Company Insights - Zhongtung High-tech is a leading comprehensive supplier of hard alloy tools in China, forming a complete tungsten industry chain that includes tungsten mining, smelting, hard alloys, and deep processing [3] - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry leverages its tungsten resource advantages and integrated industry chain layout, continuously enhancing its competitiveness in the high-end hard alloy products sector [4]