证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2026-02-09 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 9431.31 | | 52 | 周最高 | 11180.33 | | 52 | 周最低 | 4295.55 | 高波行情渐退，逢低布局有色板块 l 投资要点 贵金属：波动率预计已达到极致，黄金企稳。贵金属继续波动， 伦敦金最低点跌至 4400 美金左右，沪金最低跌至 1000 元左右，波动 率在周一放大到极致后开始减退，也为本轮调整找到了最低点——伦 敦金 4400 美元/沪金 1000 元。白银 ETF 的增持可能是短期折价带来 的套利机会所致，不能简单作为企稳信号。短期来看，黄金基本见底， 以市场给出的前低作锚进行交易。长期来看，沃什的降息+缩表政策 的实施，会对长端美债带来难以对冲的风险，美债走出牛陡的情况下， 黄金值得增配。 行业相对指数表现 2025-02 2025-04 2025-07 2025-09 2025-11 2026-02 -8% 7% 22% 37% 52% 67% 82% 97% 112% 12 ...

证券日报网讯 2月4日，格林美在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，格林美作为中国最大的钨资源循环 利用企业，年循环再生的钨资源占中国原钨开采量的10%。公司自主开发的全球领先钨回收与高端材料 再制造技术，可高效处理复杂钨废料，并生产APT、钨粉、碳化钨粉等高附加值产品，该技术已荣获中 国循环经济协会技术发明一等奖。目前，格林美已与多家钨产业领军企业建立定向循环合作，2025年回 收循环再造的钨资源总量突破1万吨，成功打造了公司在关键金属资源循环利用领域的新增长极。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Insights - The 68th Annual Grammy Awards are taking place in Los Angeles, hosted by Trevor Noah, featuring major contenders like Lady Gaga, Sabrina Carpenter, Bad Bunny, and Justin Bieber [6][7] - The event is characterized by a blend of high-profile fashion moments and live performances, setting a vibrant tone for the night [6][7] Fashion Highlights - Sabrina Carpenter made a striking entrance in a custom Valentino gown, blending classic elegance with modern flair, becoming one of the most talked-about stars [6][7] - Lady Gaga showcased a dramatic black feathered dress, described as gothic, reinforcing her influence in both music and fashion [2][7] - BLACKPINK's Rosé attended as a solo nominee for the first time, wearing a black strapless mini dress with flowing white drapes, and performed with Bruno Mars [3][7] - Justin Bieber and Hailey Bieber made a rare appearance together, twinning in black outfits with matching "ICE OUT" pins, marking their first official red carpet appearance since 2022 [4][7] - Miley Cyrus opted for a chic leather jacket with a striking gold brooch, while Sharon Osbourne appeared alongside Yungblud, contributing to the diverse mix of personalities [5][7] Event Details - The Grammy Awards are being held at the Crypto.com Arena, with a total of 86 awards presented during the pre-telecast ceremony [7] - The show aims to celebrate both mainstream hits and behind-the-scenes talent, promising a long and eventful night for music lovers [7]

Core Viewpoint - The rare metal tungsten, referred to as "industrial teeth," is expected to be the standout performer in the non-ferrous metal market in 2025, with tungsten prices skyrocketing from 200,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 600,000 yuan/ton by year-end, marking a staggering 300% increase and setting a historical high [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in tungsten prices is driven by a combination of rigid supply constraints and explosive demand growth, with APT (the core product of tungsten smelting) social inventory plummeting from a normal level of 600 tons to below 200 tons, and hard alloy companies having only 12 days of raw material inventory left, significantly below the 30-day safety line [3][4]. - The supply side is constrained by three main factors: policy control, resource depletion, and difficulty in increasing overseas production. The annual mining quota for tungsten in China has been reduced by 8.3% to 56,800 tons for 2025, limiting production even as prices rise [4][5]. Demand Explosion - The demand structure for tungsten has fundamentally changed in 2025, with the share of demand from new energy and high-end manufacturing rising from 15% in 2024 to 30%, moving away from traditional steel industry reliance [6][8]. - The photovoltaic industry is a major source of demand growth, with tungsten wire replacing carbon steel wire in silicon wafer cutting due to its superior strength and wear resistance [8]. - The demand from the electric vehicle sector is also rapidly increasing, with each vehicle requiring approximately 2-8 kg of tungsten, and global EV sales expected to grow by 20% in 2025, adding 10,500 tons of tungsten demand [8]. Profit Distribution - The profits from the surge in tungsten prices are not evenly distributed across the industry chain, with upstream resource companies being the biggest winners. For instance, a 10,000 yuan/ton increase in tungsten prices can boost net profits significantly for companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhongtung High-tech [9][10]. - Midstream smelting companies face challenges due to rising raw material costs and tight supply, leading to reduced profit margins for smaller firms [10]. Future Outlook - The consensus in the industry is that the supply-demand gap will remain unbridgeable, with tungsten prices expected to stay high for the next 3-5 years. The global primary tungsten supply growth rate is projected to be only 2%-3% from 2026 to 2030, significantly lower than demand growth [11][12]. - Analysts predict that black tungsten concentrate prices will fluctuate between 460,000 and 520,000 yuan/ton in 2026, with potential for prices to exceed 500,000 yuan/ton if China tightens exports further [12]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on three key areas: upstream resource leaders like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten, high-end manufacturing leaders like Zhongtung High-tech, and niche players in high-value sectors such as tungsten-based new materials and military-grade tungsten alloys [13][14]. - The demand growth for tungsten is closely tied to the most promising growth sectors over the next 5-10 years, providing long-term support for tungsten prices and enhancing the investment value of leading companies in the industry [14].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry's stock price increased by 5.05%, reaching 20.40 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 993 million CNY and a turnover rate of 4.20%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 24.509 billion CNY [1] - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry, established on February 28, 2000, and listed on March 31, 2010, is located in Chongyi County, Jiangxi Province. The company specializes in the tungsten industry chain, including products such as APT, tungsten oxide, tungsten powder, tungsten carbide powder, tungsten materials, hard alloys, and tools [1] - The main business revenue composition of Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry includes tungsten carbide powder (34.10%), tungsten powder (31.47%), hard alloys (21.28%), and other products (8.49%), with ammonium paratungstate at 0.65% and tungsten oxide at 0.01% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders, Huaxia Fund has a fund that ranks among the top shareholders of Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry. The Huaxia CSI 1000 ETF (159845) reduced its holdings by 4,100 shares in the third quarter, holding a total of 3.2646 million shares, which accounts for 0.27% of the circulating shares [2] - The Huaxia CSI 1000 ETF (159845) was established on March 18, 2021, with a latest scale of 45.469 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 7.74%, ranking 1567 out of 5542 in its category, while the one-year return is 40.9%, ranking 1752 out of 4243 [2]

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market experienced a decline, influenced by the European Union's plans for €93 billion ($110 billion) in tariffs in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's threats regarding Greenland [1] - The tariff concerns negatively impacted equities in Europe and U.S. futures, while safe-haven assets like gold and silver reached record highs [1] Bitcoin Performance - Bitcoin is currently trading at $93,000, reflecting a 2.5% decrease since Sunday [2] - The cryptocurrency fell below the $94,500 support level, indicating a potential return to a trading range between $85,000 and $94,500, which has been in place since mid-November [3] Derivatives Market - The crypto market pullback resulted in nearly $800 million in leveraged long bets being liquidated within 24 hours due to margin shortages [6] - Total notional open interest (OI) in crypto futures decreased by over 2% to $138.14 billion, with Bitcoin's OI increasing by 0.65% while OI for other major tokens dropped by 8%-13% [6] - The 30-day implied volatility for BTC and ETH has not significantly increased, indicating traders do not expect major price movements in the near term [6] Altcoin Market - The altcoin market showed mixed performance, with the CoinDesk 80 Index (CD80) down 4.64% over the past 24 hours, while the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) fell by 2.5% [2] - Monero (XMR) diverged positively from Bitcoin, rising over 13%, while DeFi tokens faced double-digit losses [6] - Medium market cap tokens underperformed compared to major cryptocurrencies, highlighting a liquidity issue following October's liquidation events [6] Liquidations and Market Impact - The tariff-induced selloff led to $815 million in liquidations, with $231 million attributed to Bitcoin and the remainder affecting the altcoin market [6]

再推【钨】：顺价延续，逻辑完美 20260116 摘要 2025 年四季度前，中钨高新、厦钨等外购矿比例高的企业面临亏损， 因民用领域被动接受价格上涨，未能主动承接。但四季度起，刀具企业 如华锐、中屋频繁涨价，APT 和碳化钨粉理论利润大幅提升至 4 万元/吨， 受益于原料告急和库存下降。 下游数控机床、挖掘机需求回升，国内 PMI 超预期回升至景气区间，拉 动总需求。历史数据显示，PMI 显著高于 50 时，钨标的迎来业绩与估 值双升，硬质合金产量增长超 10%，制造业景气度上行利好钨企业。 美联储降息预期增强，将推动经济复苏，产业备库或将加大。硬质合金 代表的泛制造业需求与 PMI 景气度互相验证，民用需求将接力，为钨板 块带来持续投资机会。 硬质合金年化产量增长可达 10%以上，需求占比 60%-70%，直接拉动 6-7 个百分点的需求，市场景气度高。 钨在战略性备库中用于穿甲弹、防护装甲、航空航天等领域，消耗速度 快，战时价格可能超过黄金。美国计划投资 25 亿美元建立战略韧性储 备，优先收购钨等关键金属，将显著增加钨需求。 Q&A 2025 年四季度钨板块的市场表现如何？ 2025 年四季度，钨板块 ...

Summary of Tungsten Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the tungsten market, discussing price trends, supply-demand dynamics, and regulatory impacts for the years 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Price Trends and Influencing Factors - In 2025, the tungsten market experienced significant price fluctuations due to various factors: - Q1: Export control policies led to inventory sell-offs, causing price declines [2]. - Q2: Continued enforcement of export controls and anti-smuggling measures supported domestic prices [2]. - Q3: The introduction of anti-involution policies resulted in increased profits for large enterprises, driving up prices for downstream products like tungsten powder [2][5]. - Q4: Supply tightness in APT (Ammonium Paratungstate) due to tax policies and maintenance at smelting plants pushed prices higher [2][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - For 2026, domestic tungsten demand is projected at approximately 75,000 tons, while supply is expected to be around 65,000 tons, resulting in a supply gap of about 10,000 tons [3][24]. - Global demand is anticipated to grow at a rate of 4.5% to 5% [3][24]. - The tungsten concentrate production is expected to continue declining in 2026, even with imports, due to environmental and operational issues affecting supply [1][6]. Regulatory and Policy Impacts - The anti-involution policy aims to prevent unreasonable price increases and is crucial for stabilizing the market [11]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes prohibiting the expansion of low-end production capacity and promoting high-end transformation in the tungsten industry [12]. - Export controls from Japan on tungsten are expected to remain in place, potentially becoming a normalized measure in the context of geopolitical tensions [29]. Future Price Predictions - Market participants predict that tungsten prices could reach 800,000 to 1,000,000 CNY per ton, but this is contingent on policy adjustments [13]. - The valuation of strategic metals like tungsten is expected to be reassessed, reflecting their strategic importance rather than just production costs [13][14]. Inventory and Market Conditions - Current inventory levels among traders and manufacturers are low, with many firms operating with minimal stock due to unexpected price increases [20][22]. - Major traders maintain operational inventories around 200 tons, while social inventory levels are expected to be low overall [21]. Application and Demand Structure - The demand for tungsten in various applications is evolving, with hard alloys remaining the largest segment, followed by materials for photovoltaic and nuclear fusion applications [26][27]. - Emerging industries are expected to have a stronger acceptance of high-priced tungsten products, while traditional sectors may see a reduction in demand [24]. Other Important Insights - The market is closely monitoring the impact of supply-side reforms and environmental regulations on production capabilities [10][14]. - The potential for recycled tungsten to increase in supply is recognized, with current recycling rates expected to rise to meet tightening raw material availability [16]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the tungsten market conference call, highlighting the complex interplay of supply, demand, regulatory impacts, and future market expectations.

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry's stock price increased by 5.36%, reaching 18.28 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.203 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 5.65%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 21.962 billion CNY [1] - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry, established on February 28, 2000, and listed on March 31, 2010, is located in Chongyi County, Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province. The company specializes in the tungsten industry chain, including products such as APT, tungsten oxide, tungsten powder, tungsten carbide powder, tungsten materials, hard alloys, and tools [1] - The main revenue composition of Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry includes tungsten carbide powder (34.10%), tungsten powder (31.47%), hard alloys (21.28%), and other products (8.49%), with ammonium paratungstate at 0.65% and tungsten oxide at 0.01% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major circulating shareholders, GF Fund's Guangfa CSI 1000 ETF (560010) entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry in the third quarter, holding 2.541 million shares, which accounts for 0.21% of the circulating shares. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 2.3631 million CNY [2] - Guangfa CSI 1000 ETF (560010) was established on July 28, 2022, with a latest scale of 35.303 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 8.71%, ranking 1444 out of 5525 in its category; the one-year return is 43.65%, ranking 1662 out of 4208; and since inception, the return is 19.85% [2]

未来几年内全球钨供应与需求情况如何？ 预计 26 年国内钨矿产量将继续下降，而海外产量有所增加，但总体增速仍较 为理性克制，大约在 2%到 3%之间。即使 27、28 年部分矿山开始释放，总供 给增速也仅为 4%到 5%。考虑再生料因素，总增长可能仅为 3%。另一方面， 12 月份国内 PMI 数据超预期达到 50 以上，同时数控机床和挖掘机等终端产品 产量增速较高。如果后续持续降息并保持 PMI 在 50 以上水平，那么硬质合金 等代表民用需求的增长将非常可观。在 16-18 和 20-22 两段时间内，中国硬质 合金产量年化增速达 10%-20%，预计未来这一趋势将继续。因此，从供需平 衡表来看，未来几年内全球范围内供应增速相对疲软，而民用与军用双轮驱动 下的强劲需求将推动物价持续上涨。 针对投资者而言，目前投资于哪些标的是比较有潜力的选择？ 美国总统特朗普提出的 2027 年军费提升至 1.5 万亿美元对钨市场有何影响？ 特朗普提出的 2027 年军费提升至 1.5 万亿美元，而不是此前预期的 1 万亿美 元，这一消息对小金属和关键金属，尤其是钨板块产生了显著拉动作用。历史 上，钨在战争时期价格曾高于黄 ...