废钨行情解读及后续钨行情展望 20260325 摘要 钨供应结构发生根本性转变，废钨利用率从 2010 年 10%升至 2025 年 超 40%，成为弥补原生矿缺口的核心手段。 2025 年原生钨矿供应因资源枯竭减至 13.6 万吨，总需求增至 26.6 万 吨，1.8 万吨的实质性供需缺口驱动价格大幅上涨。 刀具消费占钨总消费 42.8%，是需求增长核心引擎；金刚线用钨丝、工 业机器人及军工领域需求呈三位数增长。 中国已从净出口国转为净进口国，2025 年净进口约 2.8 万吨，出口管 控加剧全球供应紧张，海外废钨依赖度升至 65.8%。 2026 年初价格暴涨源于下游企业提前备货形成的"假性需求"，预计 本轮调整持续 2-3 周，全年价格将呈缓慢健康上涨态势。 预计 2026-2027 年维持缺口，2028 年后随厦钨大舞堂、中钨高新技改 等新增产能释放，供需有望趋于平衡。 Q&A 请复盘一下中国钨废料回收利用行业的发展历程，并说明其在总供应量中的占 比变化情况？ 中国对钨废料的回收利用起步很早，最初主要是出于成本考虑，因其价格低于 原生钨矿。早期应用领域较为狭窄，主要用于生产部分矿产钎头、低档硬质合 金 ...

RT CoinDesk Data & Indices (@CoinDeskMarkets)The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 2025.84, up 0.2% (+3.37) since 4 p.m. ET on Friday.Seven of 20 assets are trading higher.Leaders: #BCH (+2.3%) and #SOL (+1.0%).Laggards: #APT (-5.3%) and #ICP (-3.6%).https://t.co/5qDlGS4sV2 ...

🚨 BREAKING: The SEC officially classifies 16 crypto assets as DIGITAL COMMODITIES.$XRP $ETH $SOL $ADA $DOGE $AVAX $APT $BCH $HBAR $ALGO $LTC $DOT $SHIB $XLM $XTZ $LINKNot securities, not unregistered investments, not illegal.Like gold. Like oil. Like silver.Trade with ZERO fees at Poloniexhttps://t.co/FEKPTi1S97 ...

🚨ICYMI: $APT SUPPLY NOW CAPPED AT 2.1 BILLION TOKENSPerhaps overshadowed by the conflict in the Middle East, early March saw the @Aptos community overwhelmingly pass a proposal to introduce key deflationary mechanics to $APT.The proposal not only capped token supply at 2.1 billion, but also added key deflationary mechanisms to $APT, including the use of transaction fees for token buybacks. ...

Core Insights - A whale address (0x985f) deposited $9.5 million USDC into HyperLiquid and is shorting oil with 20x leverage [1] - Current positions include 94,512 xyz:CL valued at approximately $8.17 million and 68,974 xyz:BRENTOIL valued at around $6.15 million [1] - The address is also shorting multiple tokens including HYPE, PUMP, XPL, APT, and ASTER [1]

Whale 0x985f deposited 9.5M $USDC into HyperLiquid in the past 5 hours to short #oil with 20x leverage.Positions:94,512 xyz:CL($8.17M)68,974 xyz:BRENTOIL($6.15M)He also shorted multiple tokens, including $HYPE, $PUMP, $XPL, $APT, and $ASTER.https://t.co/5uPPCRKVOl https://t.co/Zuptrv07se ...

According to Tokenomist, the following tokens will have large one-time unlocks (each exceeding $5 million) in the next 7 days: WBT, CONX, APT, among others. Meanwhile, tokens with large linear unlocks (daily unlock value exceeding $1 million) over the next 7 days include RAIN, SOL, CC, TRUMP, WLD, RIVER, DOGE, ASTER, and others. The total value of tokens unlocked in the next 7 days exceeds $4.58 billion. Read more https://t.co/8qHRa19TW6 ...

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten industry is experiencing significant price increases, with the price of tungsten concentrate expected to reach 1 million yuan per ton in the future, although there may be downward pressure due to substitution risks and profit realization [1][10][29]. Key Points on Supply and Demand - **Production Forecasts**: - In 2025, the production of primary tungsten concentrate is expected to decline by approximately 2% year-on-year, with a total output of 133,600 tons [4][12]. - The domestic production for 2026 is projected to remain stable at around 135,000 tons, with no major new mines expected to come online [11][12]. - Global tungsten consumption growth is anticipated to accelerate from a normal level of 1.2% to over 5% in 2026, driven by demand from military, aerospace, and new energy sectors [1][16]. - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: - The supply of tungsten is constrained, with no significant new mining projects expected to contribute to production until 2027 [11]. - The inventory levels across the entire industry chain are at historical lows, with waste tungsten inventory having been largely cleared due to high prices in 2025 [1][21]. - **Recycling and Imports**: - The supply of recycled tungsten (waste tungsten) is expected to remain stable, with estimates of around 56,000 tons for 2025 [6]. - Imports of tungsten raw materials are projected to increase significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 64% in 2025 [7]. Price Trends - **Price Performance**: - The average price of 55-degree tungsten concentrate in 2025 is expected to be 212,700 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 58.16% [9]. - The average price of APT (Ammonium Paratungstate) is projected to be 314,100 yuan per ton in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 55.68% [9]. - **Future Price Expectations**: - Prices are expected to remain high in 2026, with the average price of tungsten concentrate projected to exceed that of 2025 [15][16]. Regulatory Environment - The regulatory environment remains stringent, with ongoing efforts to combat illegal mining and the circulation of non-compliant raw materials [2][19][21]. - Export controls are expected to continue, impacting the availability of tungsten on the global market [19][34]. Demand Drivers - The demand for tungsten is expected to be robust, particularly from the military and aerospace sectors, which are less sensitive to price increases [16][32]. - Other sectors such as new energy and nuclear power are also anticipated to contribute to demand growth [33]. Substitution Risks - There is a potential for substitution with molybdenum and tool steels in certain applications, although the overall impact on tungsten demand is expected to be limited [23][25][24]. Conclusion - The tungsten industry is poised for continued price strength due to constrained supply and increasing demand from high-end applications. The regulatory landscape and substitution risks will play critical roles in shaping the market dynamics moving forward.

Summary of Strategic Metals Conference Call Industry Overview - The strategic metals sector is experiencing significant price increases driven by geopolitical factors and new production capabilities. The U.S. plans to allocate $19.5 billion for critical mineral procurement from 2025 to 2026, making national reserves a core beta factor [1][3]. Key Points on Tungsten Supply and Demand - **Supply Constraints**: Global tungsten production from 2014 to 2024 has a CAGR of -0.7%. Starting in 2025, domestic quotas will decrease, and illegal mining will face stricter regulations, leading to a projected supply gap of 20,000 tons [1][4]. - **Price Surge**: Tungsten prices have increased from approximately 210,000 CNY/ton to over 800,000 CNY/ton within a year, representing a rise of over 400%. APT smelters are now profitable, indicating strong price transmission throughout the industry [1][7]. - **Demand Dynamics**: The inventory cycle is at a low point, with emerging applications in photovoltaic tungsten wire, nuclear fusion, and aerospace engines providing incremental demand. Military and strategic reserve needs are also showing strong demand [1][5]. Investment Insights - **Valuation Metrics**: At a tungsten price of 800,000 CNY/ton, companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Jaxin International are valued at around 11 times earnings, suggesting potential for further valuation absorption as prices rise [1][8]. - **Market Participation Strategy**: Current market conditions are not seen as a "very cost-effective buying point," but there is no clear sell signal. A holding strategy is recommended as long as the price trend remains upward [1][9]. Risks and Monitoring - **Key Risk Indicators**: The profitability of APT smelters should be closely monitored. A negative shift in this metric could indicate increased resistance to price increases from downstream sectors [1][10]. - **Geopolitical Events**: The potential for peace talks, such as Trump's visit to China, could impact market dynamics. However, immediate large-scale peace is not anticipated [1][10]. Macro Context and Future Outlook - The strategic metals sector is expected to remain a long-term theme over the next 2-3 years, influenced by geopolitical tensions and advancements in AI-driven production capabilities. The price increase logic is supported by several factors, including global stockpiling and supply disruptions due to geopolitical conflicts [2][3]. Conclusion - The strategic metals market, particularly tungsten, is poised for continued growth driven by supply constraints and strong demand from various sectors. Investors are advised to monitor key indicators and geopolitical developments closely while considering strategic positions in the market [1][12].

Aptos Foundation has released a tokenomics update with the following key proposals: reducing the staking reward APR from 5.19% to 2.6% via governance; initially increasing gas fees by 10x (with gas paid in APT and fully burned); establishing a protocol-level hard cap of 2.1 billion APT; and permanently locking and continuously staking 210 million APT held by the Foundation. Additionally, future grants will transition to KPI-linked "performance-triggered" distributions, and a programmatic buyback mechanism w ...