2026年1月28日早盘，小金属板块盘中拉升，截至10:31，中证稀有金属主题指数上涨0.23%，成分股东 方钽业上涨8.41%，株冶集团上涨5.25%，中金岭南上涨4.36%，西部材料上涨4.35%，安宁股份上涨 3.89%。 消息方面，据中钨在线1月26日数据，以人民币吨价计，钨精矿价格逼近55万关口，仲钨酸铵价格站上 80万高位，钨粉价格突破130万大关。此外，2026年1月23日工业级碳酸锂价格冲高至16.80万元/吨，周 涨幅达9.80%；同期磷酸铁锂（动力型）价格较1月4日上涨4.43%，六氟磷酸锂虽小幅回落但仍处高 位。 长城证券测算指出，当前碳酸锂、稀土、锑等品种在下游应用中的静态成本占比已接近历史高位，但考 虑到顺价存在滞后性，且风电等敏感领域2026年仍有10%以上需求增速，顺价大概率落地，有望进一步 打开上游材料及权益端上涨空间。此外，1月21日雅保拍卖Wodgina所产5.49%锂辉石精矿成交价达 16,852元/干吨（镇江港自提），海外锂资源溢价明显；刚果（金）政府亦向美国提交国有矿产资产短 名单，地缘供给扰动持续强化战略金属稀缺属性。 稀有金属ETF（562800）跟踪中证稀有金属 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 01 月 27 日 行业及产业 电力设备 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：台积电 2025Q4 营收同比增长，DRAM 价格持续上涨》 2026-01-21 《锂电行业跟踪：2025 年 12 月国内电池产量 和装车量同比高增，六氟磷酸锂价格下降》 2026-01-21 《光储行业跟踪：光伏出口退税将取消，电池 片价格持续上涨》2026-01-21 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：台积电 2025Q4 营收创新高，DRAM 涨价趋势延续》 2026-01-14 《锂电行业跟踪：2025 年 11 月新能源车销量 高景气延续，碳酸锂价格快速上行》 2026-01-13 证券分析师 朱攀 S0820525070001 021-32229888-25527 zhupan@ajzq.com 联系人 陆嘉怡 S0820124120008 021-32229888-25521 lujiayi@ajzq.com ——锂电行业跟踪 2025 年 12 月国内电池产销延续高速增 长，储能电 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced fluctuations on December 31, with the chemical ETF (516020) closing down 0.23% [1][10] - Key stocks in the petrochemical, lithium battery, and modified plastics sectors saw significant declines, with Dongfang Shenghong down 4.22% and several others dropping over 2% [1][10] - The chemical ETF (516020) has shown a remarkable annual increase of 41.09%, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (18.41%) and the CSI 300 Index (17.66%) [3][12] Group 2 - The chemical sector has been a popular investment tool, with the chemical ETF (516020) attracting significant net inflows, totaling 246 million yuan over the last five trading days [4][13] - The lithium battery supply chain has seen a rise in both volume and price, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate reaching 116,000 yuan per ton and lithium iron phosphate prices increasing by over 15% [6][14] - Looking ahead to 2026, the chemical sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery and supply-side policy advancements, leading to improved profitability [15] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, providing investors with opportunities in various chemical sub-sectors [7][15] - Investors can also consider the chemical ETF linked funds (Class A 012537/Class C 012538) for exposure to the chemical sector [15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The demand from the terminal (energy storage + new energy vehicles) remains strong during the peak season, with the material production schedule basically flat and the flow of social inventory from upstream to downstream to the terminal being smooth. On the supply side, the production schedule in December has a slight increase, but the tight spot supply of spodumene restricts a significant resumption of production on the supply side. Overall, demand provides medium - term support for the lithium carbonate price, but there is significant pressure around the key level of 100,000 yuan [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 95,850 yuan with a daily increase of 2,500 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 93,350 yuan with a daily increase of 2,000 yuan [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing prices and price increases of lithium carbonate futures contracts 2601 - 2605 range from 98,740 yuan to 100,600 yuan, with price increases between 0.78% and 1.35% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 1,248 yuan with a daily increase of 25 yuan; lithium mica prices vary according to different Li₂O contents, and the prices of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone also vary by Li₂O content [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average prices of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate (power type), ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type), ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type), and ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) are 39,845 yuan, 162,800 yuan, 146,000 yuan, and 145,700 yuan respectively, with corresponding price increases [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,500 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 4,750 yuan with a change of 1,160 yuan; and there are also price spreads between near - month and consecutive contracts [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 111,469 tons with a decrease of 2,133 tons, including 19,161 tons in smelters (a decrease of 1,606 tons), 42,738 tons in downstream (a decrease of 957 tons), and 49,570 tons in other (an increase of 430 tons); the daily registered warehouse receipts are 15,286 tons with a change of 26 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate externally is 99,567 yuan with a profit of - 5,047 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 96,908 yuan with a profit of - 4,739 yuan [3] Industry News - The national new - energy storage installed capacity exceeds 100 million kilowatts, 30 times that at the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan" and accounting for over 40% of the global total installed capacity. During the peak summer period this year, the peak call of new - energy storage exceeded 30 million kilowatts [3]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The lithium battery industry has seen production exceed expectations, with domestic battery production reaching 170.6 GWh in October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 50.84% and a month-on-month increase of 12.83% [2]. - The prices of lithium battery materials are fluctuating, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate priced at 91,400 CNY/ton, down 1.08% week-on-week, while lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased by 2.62% to 39,100 CNY/ton [2]. - Domestic demand for lithium batteries is strong, with lithium iron phosphate battery shipments reaching 67.5 GWh in October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 43.62% [2]. - The export volume of Chinese power batteries in October 2025 was 19.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 79.63% [2]. Summary by Sections Production - In the first ten months of 2025, domestic battery and lithium iron phosphate cathode material production significantly exceeded the same period in 2024 [2][3]. - The production capacity utilization rate for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 63.54%, higher than the same period in 2024 [2]. Prices - The prices of key raw materials for lithium batteries are mixed, with lithium carbonate prices decreasing while lithium iron phosphate prices are increasing [2]. - The average price of square lithium iron phosphate energy storage cells has shown a rising trend, with prices increasing by 0.01 CNY/Wh [2]. Domestic Demand - The monthly shipment of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached a record high in October 2025, with a total of 67.5 GWh shipped [2]. - New energy storage project bidding capacity in October 2025 was 12.7 GW/38.7 GWh, showing an 85% year-on-year increase [2]. Overseas Demand - The global sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.1078 million units in September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.53% [2].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [2]. Core Views - The demand for energy storage lithium batteries is strong, and the prices of lithium battery materials are rising moderately [6]. - In October 2025, domestic battery production reached 170.6 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 50.84% and a month-on-month increase of 12.83% [6][2]. - The production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials in October 2025 was 266,900 tons, up 45.92% year-on-year and 8.36% month-on-month, with a capacity utilization rate of 63.54% [6][2]. - The prices of key raw materials have generally increased, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate exceeding 92,400 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 10.13% [7][2]. - The monthly loading volume of LFP batteries in October 2025 was 67.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 43.62% and a month-on-month increase of 8.52% [15][2]. - The export volume of Chinese power batteries in October 2025 was 19.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 79.63% [21][2]. Summary by Sections Production - In the first ten months of 2025, domestic battery and LFP cathode material production significantly exceeded the same period in 2024 [6][2]. Prices - The prices of lithium battery raw materials have generally risen, with LFP prices at 38,100 yuan/ton and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices reaching 160,000 yuan/ton [7][2]. Domestic Demand - The monthly loading volume of LFP batteries reached a record high in October 2025, indicating strong domestic demand [15][2]. Overseas Demand - The global sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.1078 million units in September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.53% [21][2].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [2] Core Insights - Strong demand for power and energy storage batteries, with significant recovery in raw material and cell prices [2] - Domestic battery and lithium iron phosphate cathode material production in 2025 is significantly higher than in 2024, with October production reaching 170.6 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 50.84% [5][21] - The price of lithium carbonate has risen from approximately 70,000 yuan/ton in mid-September to over 84,000 yuan/ton in mid-November [9][10] - Domestic new energy storage demand remains robust, with a continuous increase in the number of registered projects [2] Summary by Sections 1. Battery Demand and Price Recovery - **Production**: In the first ten months of 2025, domestic battery and lithium iron phosphate cathode material production exceeded that of the same period in 2024. In October 2025, domestic battery production was 170.6 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 50.84% and a month-on-month increase of 12.83% [5] - **Prices**: Raw material prices have shown a significant recovery, with lithium carbonate prices rising to over 84,000 yuan/ton and lithium iron phosphate prices exceeding 37,000 yuan/ton by mid-November [9][10] - **Domestic Demand**: From January to October 2025, the monthly installation of lithium iron phosphate batteries consistently surpassed that of 2024, with October showing a year-on-year increase of 43.62% [21][24] - **Overseas Demand**: In the same period, China's power battery exports were higher than in 2024, with October exports reaching 2.1078 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23.53% [29]