您瞅今年初那出戏，美国大豆刚靠着降价促销拉回点订单，中国采购商转头就投奔巴西怀抱。这操作好比相亲时遇到前任求复合，嘴上说 考虑身体却很诚实地选了新对象。最绝的是巴西那边港口扩建、压榨产能飙升，活像开了挂的超级供应商。 炸裂消息！特朗普的关税大棒这次彻底砸到自家脚背上了——美国大豆被巴西组团抢单，连牛肉市场也要拱手让人！这剧情反转比美剧还 刺激，所以老美的"农业霸权"真要凉凉了吗？ 要我说啊，这场贸易博弈简直像在看《商战甄嬛传》。表面是关税拉锯战，内里却藏着三重变局：买方市场的强势崛起、供应链的永久迁 移、农业格局的重新洗牌。今儿个咱们就掀开这场"粮食战争"的底牌，看看谁才是未来餐桌的真正主宰。 大豆市场的"绝地反杀" 牛肉战争的"降维打击" 美国牛排过去在中国超市那可是镶金边的存在，现在呢？巴西草饲牛用价格优势直接掀桌。这感觉好比米其林餐厅干不过社区食堂，顾客 用钱包投票才是最真实的。更扎心的是拉美各国还在疯狂扩产，简直要把牛肉做成"白菜价"。 采购逻辑的"静默革命 中国买家的采购手册早就升级到4.0版本：不要最便宜，只要最稳定；不要最好听，只要最靠谱。这套"去风险化"采购策略，直接把美国农 产品从"必需品" ...

不过，中方并没有回应特朗普的请求。中国之所以对美国大豆失去了兴趣，主要原因是特朗普对华加征关税，削弱了美国大豆的竞争力。对比之下，巴西大 豆免税，价格较美国低10%-15%，同样的，阿根廷也在9月22日取消了大豆、玉米、小麦等农产品的出口税。没了中国订单，美国豆农正一筹莫展。然而， 就在这个时候，赖清德当局出手了。9月30日，他在接见美国农业部贸易及对外农业事务次长林德柏格时宣布，台湾打算在未来四年购买100亿美元的美国农 产品，主要包括大豆、小麦、玉米和牛肉。 9月30日，赖清德会见美国农业部贸易及对外农业事务次长林德柏格 我们知道，台湾作为一个以山地为主的省，可供发展农业的土地非常有限，农业相当脆弱，一旦美国农产品进入台湾市场，台湾本地农业将遭受灭顶之灾。 赖清德对此不可能不清楚，然而他选择为美国雪中送炭，帮助特朗普政府与中国大陆打关税战的做法，引发了本地民众的强烈不满。岛内媒体强调，赖清德 这是要把台湾的农产品当"献礼"送给美国，进一步掏空台湾。100亿美元采购清单，等于每位台湾民众要承担近4000元新台币的成本。 今年秋季，美国农场主迎来一场大丰收，但他们的脸上看不到喜悦。在往年的这个时间段，中国作为 ...

9月的数据显示，美国牛肉对中国的出口额从每月平均1.2亿美元骤降至800万美元，降幅超过90%。与此同时，澳大利亚牛肉对华出口则突破2.2亿美元，填 补了美国留下的市场空白。 当9月的贸易报表出炉时，许多美国牛肉出口商都以为自己看错了数据。过去每月稳定收入1.2亿美元，突然间降至仅800万美元。这样的跌幅，意味着一个 本月盈利千万的企业，账户里只剩下几十万。对任何一家正常运营的公司来说，这无疑是致命一击。 而更令人吃惊的是，这一暴跌并非偶然。自7月起，美国牛肉对华的出口开始下降。7月的出口额只有810万美元，8月虽略有回升至950万美元，但仍远低于 以往每月1.2亿美元的水平。 这一变化的背后，反映出美国发起的关税战对自身造成了巨大的伤害。虽然数字冷冰冰，但它背后的故事却令人震惊。 这场商业悲剧的根源并非某个政策声明，而是一种沉默。2025年3月，数百家美国牛肉企业的对华出口注册资格到期。这些资格是根据2020年签订的第一阶 段协议获得的，通常可以在到期前续期。但令这些企业震惊的是，直到3月中旬，他们仍未收到任何延续注册资格的通知。几家企业致电驻华办事处，得到 的答复是"暂无延期通知"。这一沉默的切断，比公开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing urgency of the Trump administration to secure soybean orders from China, as Brazil is rapidly capturing the Chinese market share previously held by the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: U.S.-China Soybean Trade Dynamics - In 2016, the U.S. accounted for over 40% of China's soybean imports, but this share has significantly declined due to ongoing trade tensions [1]. - Trump has publicly requested China to triple its soybean orders from the U.S., indicating a desperate attempt to regain market share [1][3]. - The U.S. soybean market is facing a crisis, with exports dropping and domestic supply not being as robust as previously claimed [1][3]. Group 2: Brazil's Growing Influence - Brazil has increased its soybean exports to China, now capturing 70% of the market, while U.S. exports have dwindled to 20% [5]. - The Brazilian government, under President Lula, is actively seeking to strengthen agricultural ties with China, positioning itself as a reliable supplier [5]. - Brazil is also eyeing opportunities in the beef market, as U.S. beef exporters face challenges in renewing export qualifications to China [5]. Group 3: Trade Negotiation Implications - Trump's mention of reducing the trade deficit suggests a willingness to negotiate, potentially offering concessions in tariff discussions if China increases its orders [7]. - The article points out the double standards in U.S. trade policy, where the U.S. seeks to force China to buy its agricultural products while simultaneously trying to reduce dependency on Chinese goods [7]. - The call for the U.S. to remove unreasonable tariffs on China is presented as a solution to stabilize trade relations and restore mutual trust [7].

Core Viewpoint - A significant trade conflict is escalating between China and the United States, particularly affecting agricultural products, as China has ended tariff exemptions on U.S. agricultural imports, leading to increased tariffs and potential market shifts [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Agriculture - The U.S. agricultural sector faces severe consequences, with tariffs on beef expected to rise from 32.5% to 62.0%, making U.S. beef more expensive than competitors like Australian and Brazilian beef [3][4]. - Pork tariffs could increase from 57% to 87%, drastically reducing the share of U.S. pork in China's imports from 18% to single digits [3][4]. - The agricultural market is experiencing a broad impact, with various products like grains, oilseeds, and nuts losing competitiveness in China [3][4]. Group 2: China's Agricultural Landscape - China is projected to produce 57.06 million tons of domestic pork in 2024, with U.S. pork imports constituting only 0.7% of its supply, indicating minimal impact from the U.S. exit [5]. - The demand for U.S. pork by Chinese fast-food and hotpot restaurants is expected to decline, leading to a potential 15% increase in domestic substitute prices [5]. - South American countries are seizing the opportunity to expand their market share in China, with Brazil investing $5 billion to enhance cold chain logistics and Argentina accelerating beef export certifications [5]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments by Allies - U.S. allies are adjusting their strategies in response to the trade conflict, with the EU and Japan negotiating favorable terms in exchange for tariff concessions [7]. - China's termination of agricultural tariff exemptions signals a refusal to engage in one-sided concessions during negotiations [7]. Group 4: Future Projections - The ongoing trade negotiations are critical, with the U.S. agricultural sector expressing concerns about the long-term implications of the tariff increases, particularly for pork, which may follow the trajectory of soybeans, whose market share in China has drastically declined [9]. - The anticipated U.S. pork imports to China are expected to drop from 408,000 tons in 2024 to less than 100,000 tons this year, indicating a significant market shift [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that Australia will import American beef for the first time, indicating a significant market opportunity for U.S. beef producers [1] Group 1 - The import of American beef by Australia represents a major development in trade relations between the two countries [1] - This move is expected to open up a large market for U.S. beef, which could lead to increased sales and revenue for American beef producers [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Australia has agreed to accept U.S. beef, indicating a strengthening of trade relations between the two countries [1] Group 2 - The agreement may lead to increased exports of U.S. beef to Australia, potentially benefiting American beef producers [1] - This development reflects ongoing efforts to enhance bilateral trade agreements and cooperation in the agricultural sector [1] - The acceptance of U.S. beef by Australia could also influence market dynamics and pricing in the global beef industry [1]

Group 1 - The core agreement between the US and UK aims to enhance market access for US products, particularly in agriculture, and reduce non-tariff barriers that affect US manufacturing and national security [4][5] - The agreement includes a tariff quota system for UK automobiles, with a 10% tariff on the first 100,000 vehicles exported to the US, while exceeding this quota will incur a 25% tariff [3][5] - The UK will eliminate tariffs on US steel and aluminum products, and reduce tariffs on US agricultural products, including ethanol, to zero within certain quotas [3][4] Group 2 - The agreement is expected to create significant job opportunities and revenue for both countries, as stated by President Trump and Prime Minister Starmer [1][4] - The aviation sector will see the removal of tariffs on UK products that comply with WTO regulations, enhancing trade in aerospace [5][6] - Future quota plans for UK steel and aluminum will be negotiated based on US national interests and the execution of the agreement by the UK [6]

Group 1 - The core of the trade agreement between the US and UK includes a reduction of tariffs on UK car exports to the US from 27.5% to 10%, and the elimination of steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to zero, applicable to 100,000 UK cars, covering nearly all of last year's exports [1] - In exchange, the UK will provide a zero-tariff quota of 13,000 tons of beef and 1.4 billion liters of ethanol to the US, with the legal procedures for implementing these quotas and tariff reductions already in place [1] - The agreement is expected to take effect in the coming days, as confirmed by US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who emphasized the urgency of implementing the historic trade deal [1] Group 2 - The steel component of the agreement remains under negotiation, with UK officials indicating that a deal to provide zero-tariff access for UK steel manufacturers to the US market may not be reached until the end of the month [2] - Tata Steel, the largest steel producer in the UK, has raised concerns that some of its products may be excluded from the zero-tariff agreement due to origin issues, which could affect other UK manufacturers as well [2] Group 3 - The agreement poses a significant threat to the UK’s domestic bioethanol industry, as the 1.4 billion liters of US ethanol quota could lead to the closure of the only two bioethanol plants in the UK, which are already operating at a loss [3] - The UK government is reportedly in discussions with these companies to explore possible support options, but no solutions have been identified so far [3] Group 4 - The UK government is under political pressure to expedite the signing of the agreement, with officials expressing confidence that it will be signed by the weekend [4] - Since April 2, the UK has been the only country to reach a trade agreement with the US, while the US continues negotiations with other nations [4]

Group 1 - The core sentiment among American farmers has risen to its highest level in four years, driven by optimism regarding potential trade agreements under the Trump administration that could boost crop exports [1] - The Purdue University and Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group's Agricultural Economic Barometer recorded a reading of 158 points, the highest since 2021, following announcements of "significant progress" in trade negotiations with China [1] - Despite the optimism, only 28% of farmers strongly agree that "free trade benefits agriculture and most other U.S. industries," a significant decline from 49% in November 2020, indicating a shift in farmers' views on trade [1] Group 2 - U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brook Rollins is actively working to increase European purchases of American products, including wheat and soybeans, emphasizing the need to enhance exports on the international stage [4] - Rollins plans to visit several countries, including Japan, Brazil, India, and Côte d'Ivoire, in the coming months to expand exports and address a trade deficit exceeding $3 billion with Peru [4] - The U.S. has reached a "massive" trade agreement with the UK, which includes quotas for American beef and the elimination of tariffs on 1.4 billion liters of ethanol [4]