丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg2] 联想集团（00992.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨联想集团（00992.HK） [Table_Title] 龙头穿越周期，多项业务创历史新高 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 联想 FY2026Q3（对应日历年 2025Q4，下同）实现营收 222.04 亿美元，同比增长 18%；毛 利率 15.1%，同比下降 0.6pct；归母净利润 5.46 亿美元，同比下降 21%，主因一次性重组费 用、认股权证的非现金公允价值收益等非现金项目的影响；经调整净利润 5.89 亿美元，同比增 长 36%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 SAC：S0490517070012 SFC：BUW100 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 龙头穿越周期，多项业务创历史新高 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 联想 FY2026Q3（对应日历年 2025Q4，下同）实现营收 222.04 亿美元 ...

Core Insights - Lenovo Group reported a double-digit growth in overall revenue and profit contribution in the China region for Q3 of FY 2025/26, with a year-on-year increase of 15% and 20% respectively [1] - The Tianxi AI has been upgraded to version 3.5, enhancing multi-modal experiences across devices and ecosystems, transitioning from an "assistant" to a "teammate" [1] Group 1: AI Development Strategy - Lenovo aims to leverage local computing resources more effectively as the cost of tokens for AI usage increases, promoting a hybrid architecture of "end-edge-cloud" for better user experience and cost balance [3] - The Tianxi ecosystem has seen significant growth, with over 3,200 AI applications and nearly 10,000 active developers, marking a 50% quarter-on-quarter increase [3] Group 2: User Engagement and Experience - The average weekly active rates for Tianxi AI on Lenovo AI PCs and AI phones reached 42% and 61% respectively, with an accelerating trend [4] - The company plans to continuously iterate on the personal super intelligent agent to enhance user engagement and leverage hardware advantages for ecosystem service momentum [4]

Core Insights - The AI industry is transitioning from a capital-intensive model training phase to a monetization phase focused on commercial efficiency as of 2026 [1][13] - Lenovo is emerging as a key player in this new phase, leveraging its extensive installed base and end-to-end delivery capabilities to capitalize on the hybrid AI architecture [1][12] Financial Performance - Lenovo reported revenue of 157.5 billion RMB for the third quarter of the 2025/26 fiscal year, representing an over 18% year-on-year growth, significantly exceeding market expectations [2][14] - Adjusted net profit increased by 36% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 32%, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth [2][14] Market Challenges and Strategic Response - The industry is facing challenges such as rising prices of key components like storage chips and concerns over the sustainability of the AI cycle [2][14] - Lenovo has successfully fulfilled its commitment to double-digit revenue growth and profitability, demonstrating resilience and operational strength in a complex environment [2][14] Shift in AI Industry Focus - The focus of the AI industry is shifting from training to inference, with a greater emphasis on cost-effective and user-friendly solutions for daily AI functionality [4][16] - The market is moving away from purely cloud-based AI models due to high bandwidth costs and energy bills, necessitating more economical solutions [5][16] Competitive Landscape - Companies that can cover a broad customer base and possess global supply chain resilience are becoming increasingly favored in the AI commercial ecosystem [6][18] - Lenovo's extensive device installation base positions it as a critical player in the AI monetization phase, where hardware serves as the platform for AI interaction [6][18] Hybrid AI Strategy - Lenovo's hybrid AI strategy is not merely a hardware upgrade but a comprehensive approach to AI deployment, transferring inference costs from the cloud to local devices [7][19] - The integration of local NPU and heterogeneous computing in PCs enhances response speed and privacy for users while significantly reducing AI usage costs [7][19] Revenue Growth in AI Segment - In the third quarter, Lenovo's AI-related revenue grew by 72%, accounting for 32% of total revenue, with AI PC revenue increasing by 39% and AI smartphone revenue surging by 202% [11][22] - The average selling price of AI PCs reached 845 USD, significantly above industry averages, providing structural support for profitability [20][22] Long-term Business Model - The hybrid AI model is seen as a commercially optimal solution, addressing cost and trust issues associated with cloud-based AI [21] - Lenovo's business model is evolving from merely selling devices to offering comprehensive AI capabilities, positioning the company as a steady revenue generator in the AI monetization phase [21][22] Future Outlook - Lenovo aims to leverage its hybrid AI strategy and global supply chain to create sustainable, scalable, and profitable AI business opportunities [12][24] - The company is focused on integrating AI into everyday life and enterprise operations, ensuring long-term returns for shareholders [12][24]

Core Insights - Lenovo Group (00992.HK) reported a revenue of 157.5 billion RMB for Q3 of the fiscal year 2025/26, representing a year-on-year growth of over 18%. Adjusted net profit increased by 36%, significantly exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) generated revenue of 111.7 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14%. The adjusted operating profit margin increased by over 15% compared to the previous year [1] - The PC shipment volume grew by 15% year-on-year, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of outperforming the market. Lenovo's global PC market share rose to 25.3%, widening the gap with the second-largest vendor by 5.2 percentage points [1] - The pre-tax profit margin for the PC business improved further year-on-year, achieving continuous improvement for the 10th consecutive quarter [1] Group 2: Market Trends - According to IDC, global PC shipments in Q4 2025 increased by nearly 10% year-on-year, totaling approximately 76.4 million units, driven by corporate upgrade demands and the Windows 10 operating system upgrade [1] - Lenovo's AI PC revenue experienced high double-digit growth, surpassing the industry average, providing structural support for profitability [1] Group 3: Strategic Developments - As of the end of Q3, Lenovo's personal smart entry layout continues to expand, with PC and smartphone activations each accounting for about half of the total global activations with Motorola AI devices [2] - The upcoming large-scale deployment of the super intelligent agent Qira is expected to amplify the flywheel effect of Lenovo's personal smart ecosystem [2]

这是一个信号。过去20年，云计算行业遵循着一条不成文的摩尔定律：性能翻倍，价格减半。首席信息 官们已经习惯了云服务只会越来越便宜这件事。 作者 林一 2026年1月27日，可能会被载入云计算发展史。这一天，谷歌云官宣涨价，自2026年5月1日起，其核心 服务、CDN互联以及AI基础设施，价格全线上调。 这并非孤例。就在几天前，亚马逊AWS悄然上调了EC2机器学习容量块的价格，涨幅高达15%。 现在，这个惯例被彻底打破了。硅谷的云巨头们，正在从跑马圈地的扩张期，转向利润收割的成熟期。 对于全球数百万企业而言，这不仅意味着IT账单的暴涨，更意味着一次战略层面的痛苦重估。但在太平 洋的另一端，对于联想集团而言，这或许是今年最大的战略利好。 涨价打破了云服务价格锚点，将驱动企业IT架构向更均衡的混合模式演进，联想作为同时具备硬件制 造、云服务、解决方案能力的厂商，处于有利位置。短期可提升订单与收入，中长期有助于巩固在企业 级市场的战略地位。 当云端的空气变得稀薄且昂贵，地面上的生意重新变得性感起来。 廉价算力终结 为什么涨价？为什么是现在？ 云计算诞生以来，价格战是核心竞争策略。AWS、Azure和Google Cl ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents ten major predictions for the Chinese economy in 2025, emphasizing the emergence of a new cycle and era, the global interest rate reduction, the fourth technological revolution, and the importance of adapting to new trends and opportunities in various sectors [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Group 1: New Economic Cycle and Global Trends - A new economic cycle and era are emerging, encouraging adaptation to new trends and opportunities [2][3]. - The global economy is entering a new interest rate reduction cycle, with significant implications for monetary policy and economic growth [3][40]. - The return of Trump to the White House (Trump 2.0) is expected to create uncertainties, including inflation and trade tensions, impacting global economic dynamics [3][42][44]. Group 2: Technological Revolution - The fourth technological revolution is underway, with breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, renewable energy, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and biomanufacturing [4][55][57]. - AI is expected to experience explosive growth, with applications in image recognition, humanoid robots, AI assistants, and consumer electronics [6][11]. - The low-altitude economy is gaining traction, with potential applications in logistics and urban management, creating a multi-trillion market [8][59]. Group 3: Economic Policies and Domestic Growth - China is initiating macroeconomic easing to boost confidence and economic growth, focusing on new infrastructure and productivity [5][73]. - The government is implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market and promote consumption, with a focus on enhancing the business environment for private enterprises [78][87]. - The emphasis on new infrastructure includes advancements in new energy systems, digital economy, and artificial intelligence, positioning China for future growth [81][84]. Group 4: Globalization and Market Expansion - Chinese enterprises are shifting from export to global expansion, tapping into larger international markets [6][92]. - The rise of successful Chinese companies in overseas markets, such as SHEIN and TikTok, illustrates the potential for growth beyond domestic borders [96][111]. - Southeast Asia is identified as a key target for Chinese companies due to its growing market and favorable conditions for investment [101]. Group 5: Aging Population and Consumer Trends - The aging population presents opportunities in the silver economy, emphasizing the need for policies to boost birth rates and early childhood development [11]. - Consumer behavior is shifting towards interest-based spending, with cultural consumption and local trends gaining popularity among younger demographics [9][30].

Core Insights - The transition from "public AI" to "personal AI" is a critical turning point, with AI technologies being implemented in the form of AI agents, allowing users to experience the true potential of AI [1][3] - The understanding of AI agents among Chinese users has increased by 24% this year, with nearly 50% of users having actually used AI agents [1][3] - Users are increasingly aware that public AI lacks personalization, raises privacy concerns, and has limited cross-platform capabilities, leading to a demand for "trustworthy AI twins" instead of generic solutions [1][3] Industry Trends - The distinction between public AI and personal AI is likened to the difference between public transportation and private cars, emphasizing the autonomy that personal AI provides [4] - Lenovo's strategy in the personal AI sector is to integrate Tianxi AI across various devices, including AI PCs, AI smartphones, AI tablets, and AIoT [4] - By 2025, over 65% of end users in China will prioritize "personal data security and privacy protection" when using AI agents [2][4] Ecosystem Development - The arrival of the personal AI era is reshaping the industry landscape, shifting the focus from traditional operating systems and commercial platforms to personal super intelligent agents [2][4] - Lenovo is positioned advantageously as a terminal manufacturer, capable of connecting intelligent agent services with ecosystems and components [2][4] - The development of communication standards for AI agents (like A2A) and tool invocation standards (like MCP) is crucial for creating a connected AI ecosystem, akin to "HTTP protocols" and "USB interfaces" [5]

Core Viewpoint - The era of "human-machine co-creation" has arrived, with Lenovo aiming to empower AI creators to surpass their imagination through AI tools and services [1]. Group 1: AI in Film Creation - Over the past two years, AI has become an indispensable force in film creation, marking a significant trend in the evolution of the film industry [4]. - The establishment of the AI Film Season at the Hainan Island International Film Festival represents a strategic move to embrace the multi-modal transition of AIGC (AI-Generated Content) and to lay the groundwork for future imaging [4]. - The rapid evolution of AIGC is reconstructing the paradigm of film production, transitioning from the film era to the digital era, and now to the AI film era [4]. Group 2: Characteristics of AI Film Creation - The creation in the AI film era exhibits three characteristics: integrated end-cloud architecture, multi-modal fusion, and collaboration among multiple intelligent agents [4]. - AI has broken down creative barriers, allowing individual creators to possess large-scale production capabilities, significantly reducing the creation time from months to mere hours [4]. Group 3: Lenovo's AI Tools and Services - Lenovo offers a comprehensive suite of AI tools and services to empower creators, enabling them to have their own "dream factory" [4]. - The Tianxi AI, Lenovo's personal AI, is designed to assist creators in various aspects of film production, including script writing and storyboard design, achieving the effect of "one person as the entire crew" [5]. - Lenovo's AI workstations support local deployment of powerful models, serving top film post-production teams globally, exemplified by their work on the critically acclaimed film series "Dune" [5]. Group 4: Future Initiatives - Lenovo has launched the "Parallel Universe" creative concept, aiming to collaborate with pioneering creators through co-creation of worldviews, characters, scenes, and music, enriching traditional film production models [5]. - The AI Film Season is expected to inspire filmmakers to expand their imagination and foster a thriving ecosystem in the AI era [5].

Core Viewpoint - The integration of hardware, software, and data is driving the emergence of a new generation of technology companies, with firms that successfully merge personal and enterprise solutions becoming core assets in the AI wave [6][8]. Financial Performance - Lenovo Group reported a 15% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2 of FY2026, reaching 146.4 billion RMB, significantly exceeding market expectations. Adjusted net profit grew by 25% to 3.66 billion RMB, outpacing revenue growth [6][7]. - The IDG smart device business group achieved revenue of 108.1 billion RMB, a 12% increase, while the ISG infrastructure solutions group saw revenue rise by 24% to approximately 29.3 billion RMB, driven by strong AI infrastructure demand [7][15]. AI Infrastructure Investment - Global investment in AI infrastructure is unprecedented, with estimates ranging from 400 to 600 billion USD in 2023, surpassing previous industrial revolutions [9]. - The AI narrative has significantly impacted capital markets, with AI data center ecosystem-related stocks accounting for 75% of S&P 500 returns since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 [10]. Market Position and Strategy - Lenovo is one of the few Chinese tech companies fully covering personal and enterprise terminals, software, and hardware within the AI ecosystem [8]. - The company is leveraging AI infrastructure investments to enhance its "one body, multiple ends" strategy, creating highly intelligent and personalized enterprise and personal solutions [8][19]. AI Product Development - Lenovo's AI PC market share reached 31.1%, maintaining its position as the global leader, with AI PC revenue contributing significantly to overall growth [18][19]. - The Tianxi AI system, now at version 3.5, is set to release version 4.0, enhancing user experience through a personal AI twin concept [20][24]. Competitive Advantage - Lenovo's B2B business model provides a strong risk mitigation strategy, particularly in the face of supply chain fluctuations affecting competitors like Dell and HP [29]. - The company's unique position in both B2B and B2C markets allows it to benefit from the ongoing AI wave, with a dual focus on enterprise infrastructure and consumer AI products [26][35].

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group is committed to accelerating China's intelligent transformation through "Hybrid AI" and aims to build a robust equipment library while advancing direct customer engagement [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the 2025/26 fiscal year, Lenovo's revenue in China increased by 24% year-on-year, setting a new record for the first half of the fiscal year [3]. - The direct customer engagement model has achieved significant results, with customer coverage reaching 80% [3]. - Lenovo's PC market share remains at the top, climbing to 40.6% in the first half of the 2025 fiscal year [3]. Group 2: Non-PC Business Growth - Non-PC business has rapidly grown to nearly 50% of total revenue, up from less than 20% in the 2017/18 fiscal year [5]. - Infrastructure business revenue has increased by 175% over the past two and a half years, with Lenovo servers ranking among the top in the market [5]. - Lenovo has become the leading player in China's IT service market, significantly widening the gap with the second-place competitor [5]. Group 3: AI Strategy and Development - Lenovo is positioned to lead in both personal and enterprise AI, focusing on three key elements for future planning [6]. - The company is developing a "super equipment library" that encompasses both personal AI and enterprise AI, with the personal AI strategy evolving to "Tianxi AI, one body multiple ends" [6]. - The enterprise AI strategy includes a comprehensive stack of AI capabilities, with a focus on AI infrastructure and solutions, utilizing a strategy termed "one horizontal and four verticals" [6].