文/子木 很多读者问我，关于2026年科技元年爆发的事情。 其实我前几天在子说一点已经写过了，这对于我们每个人来说，是非常非常重要的信号。那么今天就系 统化再讲一次。 2026年，人类将同时迎来十五个顶尖科技领域的"元年"。 分别是： 1.自动驾驶元年 2.液冷元年 3.国产HBM元年 4.端侧AI元年 5.固态电池元年 6.人工智能应用元年 7.量子计算元年 8.存算一体芯片元年 9.类脑计算元年 10.低空经济元年 11.产业商业航天元年 12.人型机器人元年 13.硅光元年 14.可控核聚变元年 所谓的"寒冬"，往往是巨变的前夜。 真正的技术革命，从来不是在歌舞升平中诞生的，而是在危机和 萧条的废墟上长出来的。 但作为一个理性的宏观观察者，我必须告诉你一个违背直觉，却又在历史上反复验证的真相： 15.深海科技元年 这份清单列得密密麻麻，从自动驾驶到可控核聚变，从人形机器人到量子计算； 从国产HBM（高带宽 内存）到硅光芯片，再到低空经济和脑机接口…… 拿到这份清单，绝大多数人的第一反应是嗤之以鼻，甚至感到厌恶： "又是资本在炒作概念圈钱了。" "饭都吃不饱了，还谈什么核聚变？" "现在的经济这么冷，哪来 ...

AI亦难逃"流量魔咒"，市场正呈现与互联网时代惊人相似的推广逻辑。 争夺春晚流量盛宴，就是最新具象的表现。作为年终最大的流量池，抢占春晚舞台，已经成为争抢超级市场应用的快速入口。此前，无论是微信摇一 摇，"集五福"抢红包，甚至京东、抖快和B站，都曾站上春晚的舞台。 而今年，这个位置，AI上桌了。12月24日，有报道表示，字节跳动旗下火山引擎将成为2026年中央广播电视总台春晚独家AI云合作伙伴，其智能助手豆 包也将配合上线多种互动玩法。 种种消息表明，豆包距离一款国民级应用的距离，越来越近。而凭借AI时代的超级入口，字节也正形成"流量—产品—流量"的闭环。 实际上，不仅仅是字节，放眼过去，无论是OpenAI的GPT系列、谷歌的Gemini，还是DeepSeek以及其他AI应用，其市场策略无不遵循着"争夺流量入 口"的原则。 这一现象，在互联网大厂尤为明显。数据显示，2025年第一季度，全球前十大AI应用的用户获取成本中，流量渠道占比平均达到68%，而产品差异化功能 投入仅占22%。这一比例与2015年移动互联网应用的投入结构几乎一致。 -01- "得流量者得天下"？ 剥开技术炫酷的外衣，审视这场席卷全球的AI ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing development and commercialization of AI applications, particularly in gaming and film sectors, as key areas for investment [3][4] - The upcoming release of major films like "Avatar 3" and new games is expected to drive market recovery and growth [4] Industry Overview - The media sector is experiencing a significant shift with AI applications becoming increasingly integrated into advertising, gaming, and film production [3] - The gaming industry is entering a peak season with new game launches expected to boost revenue significantly [3][4] Industry Data Summary - As of December 6, 2025, "Delta Force" ranks first in the iOS free game chart, while "Honor of Kings" leads the iOS revenue chart [10][14] - "Zootopia 2" has achieved a cumulative box office of over 3 billion yuan, ranking among the top 30 in domestic box office history [4][5] - The report highlights the stability of the top ranks in the WeChat mini-game market, with "Treasure Hunter" and "Endless Winter" leading the charts [30]

Core Insights - Doubao AI has established the "AI Humanities Innovation Laboratory" in collaboration with the Philosophy School of Zhejiang University [1] - The partnership aims to enhance students' AI literacy and practical skills through courses and training camps [1] - Long-term research will be conducted on college students' AI usage behaviors and needs, collecting real feedback on product models and functions [1] - The initiative seeks to uncover unique applications of AI among faculty and students [1]

Group 1 - The establishment of the "AI Humanities Innovation Laboratory" is a collaboration between Doubao AI and the Philosophy Department of Zhejiang University, aimed at enhancing students' AI literacy and practical skills through courses and training camps [1] - The laboratory seeks to create a symbiotic system where humanities lead technology and technology supports humanities, fostering a composite ability in students to utilize humanistic thinking in technology and vice versa [1] - The first training camp, focusing on "AI + Humanities," has commenced, with 59 students from the Philosophy Department divided into 10 groups to transform their academic knowledge into visualized results and innovative applications [1] Group 2 - This is not the first collaboration between Doubao and the Philosophy Department of Zhejiang University; previous initiatives included hands-on programming applications that integrate AI with philosophy [2] - Doubao has also partnered with other prestigious universities such as Peking University and Fudan University to conduct AI training camps and courses, positioning itself as a tool for university students to enhance learning and self-improvement [2] - Doubao plans to continue expanding its presence in more universities to better assist faculty and students in utilizing AI effectively [2]

Core Insights - The article presents a rapid growth strategy for new Douyin accounts, emphasizing high efficiency and low entry barriers for users starting from zero followers [1] Group 1: Execution Steps - The first step involves obtaining AI-generated prompts by using the Doubao app to search for "image generation prompts," ensuring to select the official entry for stability [4] - Users must upload a reference sample by taking a screenshot of a well-performing video on Douyin, which the system will analyze to derive the necessary prompts for video generation [6] - The second step is content generation, where users paste the obtained prompts into the Doubao app's "AI image generation" module to create four static AI images [10] - From the generated images, users select the best one based on composition and aesthetics, then convert it into a dynamic video by inputting additional dynamic effect prompts [12] Group 2: Strategic Positioning and Considerations - This method serves as a quick lead generation tool for new accounts to accumulate initial followers, with a suggested threshold of 1,000 followers to unlock additional features [13] - It is advised to cease this type of content once the follower goal is reached and transition to core vertical content or monetization strategies, as this approach lacks long-term commercial value [13] - AI-generated content may have variability; if results are unsatisfactory, users should refine prompts and utilize the current free testing phase of the Doubao tool for optimization [14]

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of AI as a new shopping channel, transforming from an information service tool to a direct sales platform, significantly influencing consumer purchasing decisions [4][24]. Group 1: AI's Role in E-commerce - AI is becoming a powerful force in consumer decision-making, with companies like ByteDance's Doubao AI embedding product recommendation links in conversations [3][4]. - The collaboration between ChatGPT and Walmart allows users to complete purchases directly within the chat interface, showcasing a shift towards integrated shopping experiences [21][22]. - AI-driven e-commerce is redefining the flow of consumer traffic, moving from a search-based model to a more intuitive, conversational approach [26]. Group 2: Product Recommendation Mechanisms - Doubao AI's product recommendations are primarily sourced from Douyin e-commerce, with over 90% of products coming from this platform, indicating a strong alignment with its parent company's ecosystem [10]. - The AI's recommendation logic is influenced by commercial interests, with variations in product suggestions based on keywords and time, reflecting a strategic approach to pricing and product selection [11][19]. - High standards for product quality are maintained, with a focus on items priced between 50 to 500 yuan, ensuring a balance between quality and consumer affordability [10]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis of AI Assistants - A comparative analysis of various AI products reveals differing levels of commercial engagement, with Doubao being the most aggressive in embedding shopping links, while others like Tencent's Yuanbao take a more conservative approach [14][19]. - The ranking of AI products based on recommendation probability and commercial strategy shows Doubao leading with high integration of shopping features, while others maintain a more neutral stance [14]. Group 4: Industry Implications and Future Outlook - The article predicts that by 2025, AI-driven recommendations could account for 15% to 20% of China's total e-commerce volume, indicating a significant shift in how consumers engage with online shopping [29][30]. - The potential for AI to act as a "shopping assistant" is highlighted, with capabilities extending beyond recommendations to include price monitoring and comparison, which could further enhance consumer experience [30]. - Challenges such as trust in AI recommendations and data barriers among platforms are noted, emphasizing the need for a balance between user experience and commercial viability [28][30].

Core Insights - The AI industry is at a critical juncture where companies must find sustainable monetization strategies to survive and thrive in a competitive landscape [1][4][35] - Major players are exploring different commercial strategies, categorized into three main logics: survival, value, and incremental growth [19][35] Group 1: Commercialization Strategies - **Survival Logic**: Companies like OpenAI and emerging AI startups are focused on establishing a viable business model to ensure their survival amid increasing competition and market pressures [4][19] - **Value Logic**: Established giants like Alibaba are leveraging AI to secure strategic positions in future human-computer interaction, focusing on long-term value creation rather than immediate profits [12][19] - **Incremental Logic**: Companies such as Doubao AI are seeking to capitalize on existing user bases and traffic to explore new revenue streams, particularly in e-commerce [15][19] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The AI commercialization landscape is evolving with various paths, including hardware solutions like AI glasses and software solutions that encompass API calls and subscription models [20][22] - The integration of AI in e-commerce is seen as a significant opportunity, with companies like OpenAI aiming to create seamless shopping experiences directly within AI interfaces [26][30] - The competitive landscape is shifting from a focus on technological superiority to ecosystem control, emphasizing the importance of strategic positioning in the market [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of leveraging AI as a productivity tool for ordinary individuals to create income-generating opportunities, likening the current AI trend to the internet boom of 1997, which presents a new wave of economic benefits for the average person [2][10]. Group 1: AI as a Tool for Ordinary People - Ordinary individuals often struggle to earn from side jobs due to a lack of unique skills or resources, making it crucial to recognize the potential of AI as a significant advantage [2]. - AI is described as a "productivity tool" rather than a consumer product, enabling users to create tangible results and act as a leverage for skills and intelligence [2][9]. - The article suggests that the key to making money with AI lies in identifying the intersection of "AI + business opportunities" rather than merely using AI tools [9][10]. Group 2: Practical Applications of AI - Examples are provided of individuals successfully utilizing AI to streamline their work processes, such as automating data collection and content creation for a content creator [3]. - Another example illustrates how an individual built a workflow using AI and shared their experience, leading to paid requests from others who found the process complicated, charging 200 yuan per person [6][7]. - The article stresses that simply knowing how to use AI is insufficient for generating income; it is essential to combine AI with real-world scenarios to solve actual problems [8][9]. Group 3: Mindset Shift - The narrative encourages a shift in mindset, suggesting that one does not need to become an AI expert but rather a "normal person using AI to make money" [11]. - The focus is on engaging in projects with predictable income potential through AI, which is presented as the most practical approach for ordinary individuals to monetize their efforts [10].

Core Insights - Zhang Yiming's public appearance at the Shanghai Xuhui Zhichun Innovation Center marks his first public event in over four years since stepping down as CEO of ByteDance, indicating a shift in focus towards talent cultivation rather than direct business management [2][19] - The event reflects a broader industry trend where major figures like Jack Ma and Liu Qiangdong are returning to frontline operations, signaling a shift in the competitive landscape from user acquisition to long-term technological innovation and talent development [14][18][19] Summary by Sections Zhang Yiming's Return - Zhang Yiming's appearance is significant as it is his first public engagement since May 2021, and he did not discuss ByteDance's core businesses but emphasized the importance of talent development [2][4] - The Zhichun Innovation Center, a non-profit organization, aims to cultivate young talent interested in computer science and AI, reflecting Zhang's long-standing commitment to education and innovation [7][19] Focus on Talent Development - The center's unique positioning as a non-profit dedicated to talent cultivation, offering free education, equipment, and stipends, aligns with Zhang's belief in the untapped potential of many individuals [7][10] - Zhang's long-term interest in education began in 2016 when he recognized the talent from Shanghai Jiao Tong University's ACM class, leading to the establishment of the innovation center in 2025 [5][19] Talent Philosophy and Company Growth - Zhang Yiming's views on talent are illustrated through the analogy of "overfitting" in machine learning, suggesting that many individuals possess strong skills but struggle with innovation due to a lack of broader thinking [10][11] - His approach to talent development has been consistent since the founding of ByteDance, where he prioritized curiosity and resilience over mere technical skills, contributing to the company's rapid growth [10][19] Industry Implications - The recent trend of industry leaders returning to operational roles, including Zhang Yiming, Jack Ma, and Liu Qiangdong, indicates a strategic pivot in the internet sector towards nurturing talent and fostering technological advancements [14][18] - As user growth plateaus, the focus on technological innovation and talent cultivation is seen as essential for maintaining competitive advantage in the evolving landscape of the internet industry [18][19]