上 市 公 司 美容护理 2025 年 08 月 26 日 珀莱雅 (603605) ——业绩符合预期，多品牌&多品类增长逻辑再强化 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 91.99 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 121.10/73.73 | | 市净率 | 6.3 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.29 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 36,373 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,868.38/12,473.17 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 14.33 | | 资产负债率% | 29.55 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 396/395 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-26 09-26 10-26 11-26 12-26 01-26 02-26 03-26 04-26 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan and significant profit growth, indicating robust market positioning and operational efficiency [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.778 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.552 billion yuan, up 30.0% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.359 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 390 million yuan, a 28.9% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company maintained over 20% profit growth in both Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, benefiting from improved gross margins and cost control [1]. Product Strategy - The company has been reinforcing its "big product strategy" since 2024, focusing on upgrading core product lines and launching new products targeting specific consumer needs, such as whitening and oil control [2]. - The upgrades to existing product lines and the introduction of new series are expected to drive continued double-digit growth on the foundation of over 10 billion yuan in revenue [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 12.584 billion yuan, 14.440 billion yuan, and 16.302 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 16.75%, 14.75%, and 12.89% [3]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.821 billion yuan, 2.121 billion yuan, and 2.440 billion yuan, with growth rates of 17.33%, 16.47%, and 15.06% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.60 yuan, 5.35 yuan, and 6.16 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline with a trading volume of 1.07 trillion yuan, while the largest consumer ETF (159928) slightly dropped by 0.37% with a trading volume of nearly 300 million yuan, indicating high trading activity [1] - Over the past 60 days, there has been a continuous inflow of funds into consumer stocks, totaling nearly 2.6 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Proya, a leading domestic beauty brand, has gained market attention due to its impressive annual and quarterly reports, achieving a consecutive increase in stock price [3] - Proya's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 10.234 billion yuan, with online sales accounting for 95.06% of total revenue, reflecting strong organizational efficiency and brand growth potential [3][4] - In Q1 2024, Proya's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 29% year-on-year, showcasing improved operational quality [4] Group 3: Consumer Sector Earnings - Wuliangye reported Q1 2024 revenue of 36.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, with a net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, also up by 5.8% [5] - Among the 41 constituent stocks of the consumer ETF (159928), 22 have released Q1 reports, with 14 showing positive year-on-year growth in net profit, representing 64% [5][7] - Major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs have turned profitable, with net profit growth exceeding 200% [5] Group 4: Financial Metrics - The consumer ETF (159928) has seen a net inflow of nearly 2.6 billion yuan over the past 60 days, with the latest share count reaching nearly 19 billion, maintaining historical highs [8] - The constituent index of the consumer ETF achieved a record net profit of 191.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the previous year, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.44% [8] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio for the consumer ETF is 20.37, which is at a low valuation compared to the past decade, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [8][10]

品牌矩阵中，彩妆品牌彩棠为第二大收入来源，营收达到11.91亿元，同比增长19.04%，但其在2023年 和2022年的同比增速高达75.06%和132.04%，这一数据断崖式下跌也与近两三年来彩妆消费市场疲软有 关。不过，另一个新秀彩妆品牌"原色波塔"在今年的销售额甚是亮眼，营收达到1.14亿元，同比增长 138.36%，该品牌在2023年之前都是并入了其他品牌计算，今年才得以单独计算业绩。除了化妆品，珀 莱雅旗下的洗护品牌Off&Relax的营收增速在近两年一直保持在70%左右，是珀莱雅矩阵品牌下增速表 现最为稳定的，其对总营收的贡献占比也相比于其他品牌有显著的逐年上升的趋势，从2022年的1.98% 提升至3.42%。 线上渠道对营收贡献大，但拖累盈利水平 2024年珀莱雅在线上渠道经营能力依然突出。2024年线上的业务收入达到102.34亿元，同比增长 23.68%，其占到总营收的比例在逐年攀升，2022年-2024年分别占比为90.98%、93.07%和95.06%。线上 渠道的优势也可以从具体品牌的销售情况看到。2024年度，珀莱雅天猫旗舰店成交金额首次跃居天猫美 妆第1，获抖音美妆排名第2，获京 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the market, particularly focusing on cyclical and consumer sectors [4][10][17]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that large-cap blue-chip stocks are beginning to rebound, with a focus on cyclical and consumer sectors as key areas for investment [4][10]. - It highlights the importance of upcoming government policies aimed at boosting consumption, which are expected to drive market performance [11][17]. - The report suggests that the market is transitioning from a liquidity-driven phase to one driven by economic fundamentals, indicating a need for cautious investment strategies [9][17]. Market Overview - The A-share market shows a total market capitalization of 651,122 million yuan for the Shanghai Composite Index, with a PE ratio of 12.23 and a PB ratio of 1.30 [3]. - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,419.56, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.81% [2]. Economic Indicators - The report mentions that the average interest rate for new corporate loans in February was approximately 3.3%, which is 40 basis points lower than the same period last year, indicating a supportive monetary policy environment [42]. - It also highlights that the total social financing scale increased by 22,375 million yuan in February, showing a year-on-year increase of 7,416 million yuan [14]. Industry Dynamics - The railway sector experienced a record high in passenger flow, with 7.38 million passengers transported in the first two months of 2025, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase [41]. - The report discusses the implementation of a new childcare subsidy policy in Hohhot, which provides financial incentives for families, potentially boosting consumer spending [44]. Company Tracking - The report tracks the performance of Oriental Fortune, which reported a 17.3% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, driven by active trading [51]. - It also notes that Jinbo Biological has expanded its applications of recombinant collagen in various fields, including skincare and medical aesthetics, enhancing its market competitiveness [49][50].