算力需求专题解读 20250923 摘要 字节跳动计划 2025 年将 60%的资本开支用于海外算力储备，而阿里巴 巴则主要投资于国内，但预计 2026 年海外投资比例将增至三分之二， 以应对国内产能不足和推理卡需求的不确定性。 海外市场主要采购高端英伟达系列卡用于复杂模型训练，而国内市场则 侧重于垂直模型训练和推理业务，并逐渐向国产化转移，腾讯已采购大 量 AMD 显卡。 国内云厂商主要采购海光、海五记和平头哥三家的国产卡，自有 PPU 现 有约 3 万张，加上其他如寒光 800 等，总计约 10 万张，主要用于淘宝 搜推和钉钉魔法棒等产品。 阿里巴巴在超级计算节点方案上的进度相对较慢，但投入正在增加，超 节点方案主要由平头哥生产，并与达摩院和阿里云协同运作。 2026 年国产 GPU 卡的采购比例预计将达到 60%以上，但由于中芯国 际产能限制，实际落地可能面临挑战。制定高比例的原因在于难以通过 正常途径购买英伟达卡。 趋势来看，这一比例可能会发生变化。预计到 2026 年，大约三分之二的资本 开支将用于海外，以应对国内产能不足及推理卡需求不确定性的问题。 在海外市场购买算力设备时采取何种合作形式？ 目前 ...

Core Insights - Alibaba's 2025 Yunqi Conference emphasizes the theme "Cloud Intelligence Integration, Carbon-Silicon Symbiosis," showcasing its ambition for the next decade in cloud computing and AI [1] - CEO Wu Yongming predicts that large models will become the next generation operating system and AI Cloud will be the next generation computer, aiming to position Alibaba among the top 5-6 global super cloud platforms [1][5] - Alibaba plans to significantly increase capital expenditure from the current 380 billion yuan, with data center energy consumption expected to grow tenfold by 2032, indicating a bold investment strategy in computing power and infrastructure [1][4] Hardware and Software Integration - Alibaba is heavily investing in "full-stack AI," redefining every aspect from hardware to software, including high-density AI servers and distributed storage for large models [2] - The launch of seven new Tongyi models across various domains demonstrates Alibaba's capabilities in reasoning, programming, and tool invocation, with over 300 models and 600 million downloads indicating a strong ecosystem ambition [2] Importance of Agents - Alibaba emphasizes the role of "Agents" as the future "brains" of intelligent systems, introducing low-code development platforms and prototype products to facilitate the creation of these agents [3] - The vision is to create an application world composed of numerous intelligent agents, with Alibaba Cloud providing the necessary infrastructure [3] Challenges and Costs - Despite ambitious plans, the reality of AI infrastructure investment poses significant challenges, with high costs associated with server clusters, network upgrades, and energy consumption [4] - The profitability cycle remains uncertain, especially as global competitors also ramp up investments, raising questions about the sustainability of the investment-to-revenue model [4] Competitive Landscape - The competition among cloud providers is evolving from price and performance battles to a comprehensive ecosystem competition, where computing power, models, and agents form the core components [4] - Alibaba aims to position itself as a leading player in this competitive landscape, but achieving the goal of becoming one of the future super platforms will require time and market validation [5]

Core Insights - Alibaba is actively engaging in two major strategic areas: AI and consumer services, aiming to leverage its strengths in both fields to drive growth and innovation [3][4][5] Group 1: AI and Cloud Strategy - Alibaba Cloud's revenue grew by 26% year-on-year, marking the highest growth in three years, driven by strong demand for AI [8] - AI-related product revenue has seen triple-digit year-on-year growth for eight consecutive quarters, with AI revenue now accounting for over 20% of external commercial revenue [8][9] - The company has invested 38.6 billion yuan in AI and cloud infrastructure this quarter, a 220% increase year-on-year, contributing to a total investment exceeding 100 billion yuan over the past four quarters [9][11] Group 2: Consumer Services and Instant Retail - Alibaba's instant retail business achieved significant milestones, with 300 million monthly active buyers and peak orders reaching 120 million [10] - The integration of Taobao's e-commerce traffic with Ele.me's delivery network has created a seamless user experience, enhancing customer engagement and proving the value of cross-unit collaboration [10][15] - The company aims to evolve its e-commerce platform into a comprehensive service platform that meets diverse consumer needs, positioning itself to capture a share of the 30 trillion yuan consumer market [15][16] Group 3: Strategic Investments and Future Outlook - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI and cloud, and 50 billion yuan in consumer services, viewing these as historical opportunities for growth [12][13] - The company is focusing on building a robust AI infrastructure and leveraging its extensive data and application scenarios to enhance its competitive edge [13] - Alibaba's transformation reflects a commitment to a "re-entrepreneurial" mindset, concentrating resources on AI and consumer services while streamlining other non-core operations [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][10]. Core Insights - Alibaba Cloud's ecosystem is continuously improving, with accelerated deployment of AI agents. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10027, 10542, and 11445 million yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1571, 1638, and 1809 million yuan [2][10]. - The estimated market value of the company is 27957 million yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 157.65 HKD [8][21]. Financial Performance - For FY2025, total revenue is expected to reach 1002754 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.54%. The adjusted net profit is projected at 132049 million yuan, with a significant increase of 65.60% compared to the previous year [9][11]. - The report highlights a robust performance in the core operating data, with a total revenue of 221874 million yuan in Q4 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.57% [11]. AI and Cloud Strategy - The AI cloud demand is rapidly increasing, with a tenfold growth in model calls every six months. The number of active customers has surged from 100 to over 40,000, solidifying Alibaba Cloud's position as the leading player in the domestic cloud computing market [7]. - The company is enhancing its multi-modal large model capabilities, with recent releases achieving industry-leading performance in video generation and cross-modal perception [7]. Business Segments Valuation - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, estimating the market value of various business units, including Taobao Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and Cainiao Group, with respective valuation methods such as P/E and P/S [21]. - The Taobao Group is valued at 15686 million yuan based on a P/E ratio of 10x, while the Cloud Intelligence Group is valued at 8500 million yuan using a P/S ratio of 6x [21]. Market Performance - The stock price as of April 17, 2025, is 108.7 HKD, with a 52-week high of 145.9 HKD and a low of 64.41 HKD [3]. - The report notes a strong absolute performance of 63.31% over the past 12 months, indicating positive market sentiment [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [2][9] Core Views - The company has a clear strategy focusing on AI and cloud integration, with the split of the Intelligent Information Business Group marking an increase in AI ToC applications. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10046 billion, 11230 billion, and 12545 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1577 billion, 1656 billion, and 1863 billion yuan respectively. The estimated market value of the company is 30703 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 175.10 HKD [2][9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY2023 was 868,687 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.83%. Projections for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are 1,004,569 million, 1,123,039 million, and 1,254,470 million yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of 6.74%, 11.79%, and 11.70% [7] - The adjusted net profit for FY2023 was 72,509 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.03%. The forecast for FY2025 is 132,264 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 65.87% [7] - The report indicates a gross margin of 36.72% for FY2023, projected to increase to 39.05% by FY2025 [7] AI Application and Market Position - Alibaba's new AI flagship application, "New Quark," launched on March 13, integrates various AI functionalities and is expected to enhance user engagement. The application has achieved a daily active user count of 34.3 million, leading the AI application market [5][9] - The report highlights Alibaba's strong position in the AI and cloud computing sectors, benefiting from increased demand for cloud computing power driven by AI applications. The company’s proprietary AI models are expected to outperform competitors [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [2][9]. Core Views - The company has a clear strategy focusing on AI and cloud integration, with the split of the Intelligent Information Business Group marking an increase in AI ToC applications. Revenue projections for FY2025-2027 are estimated at 10046 billion, 11230 billion, and 12545 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1577 billion, 1656 billion, and 1863 billion yuan respectively. The estimated market value of the company is 30703 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 175.10 HKD [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY2023 was 868,687 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.83%. Projections for FY2024 and FY2025 are 941,168 million yuan (8.34% growth) and 1,004,569 million yuan (6.74% growth) respectively. The adjusted net profit for FY2023 was 72,509 million yuan, with a projected increase to 79,741 million yuan in FY2024 and 132,264 million yuan in FY2025, reflecting a significant growth rate of 65.87% [7][15]. AI Application Development - Alibaba has launched its flagship AI application, New Quark, which integrates multiple AI functionalities and aims to transition from a cloud storage and search engine to an AI agent. The application is expected to leverage the high traffic from its existing services and the company's leading AI foundational capabilities [5][9]. - The report highlights that New Quark has achieved a daily active user (DAU) count of 34.3 million, making it the top AI application, with over 200 million total users, predominantly from the post-00s demographic [5][9]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Alibaba is positioned as a leader in the current AI wave, benefiting from increased demand for cloud computing power driven by AI applications. The company’s strong AI research capabilities, exemplified by its proprietary Qwen deep reasoning model, are expected to enhance its competitive edge [5][9]. - The report notes that the recent launch of the general AI agent product Manus marks a significant step in the evolution of C-end AI applications, with Alibaba's New Quark poised to capitalize on this trend [5][9].