维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。考虑到公司后续产品储备丰富，经典游戏表现亮眼，有道等创新业务持续发 展，我们预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润有望达到351.0/384.9/425.3 亿元。维持 "强烈推荐"投资评 级。 风险提示：新游表现不及预期、竞争格局恶化、监管风险。 三季度公司多款经典游戏表现优秀。《梦幻西游》电脑版最高同时在线玩家次数连创四次新高，达到 358 万；新游戏上线进一步丰富产品矩阵，包括《命运：群星》在海外及国内上线后登顶多地区iOS 下 载榜，《无限大》在2025东京电玩展推出线下试玩后引发热烈反响，《逆水寒》手游及《燕云十六声》 于11 月在全球上线，《遗忘之海》有望于2026 年上线贡献增量。此外，暴雪系列游戏中，《魔兽世 界》近期推出国区独家"泰坦重铸"服务器，《暗黑破坏神II》重制版和《星际争霸I》分别于8 月27 日和 10 月28 日回归中国，《暗黑破坏神IV》国区即将在12 月12 日上线。 有道持续推动AI 技术升级与落地，教育及广告领域商业化成果显著。25Q3有道实现收入16 亿元，同比 增长3.6%，环比增长主要来自智能硬件及在线营销服务收入增长；云音乐25Q3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 28.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.6 billion yuan, up 31.8% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The gross margin for Q3 was 64.1%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 31.0%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement in profitability is attributed to gains from fair value changes in stock investments and lower net exchange losses [5] - The company’s contract liabilities reached 19.5 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15%, indicating strong growth momentum [5] - The report highlights the strong performance of the game "Dream of the Red Chamber" and the successful launch of new games, which are expected to drive future growth [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 357 billion yuan, 383 billion yuan, and 429 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.6, 15.5, and 13.8 times [5] - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 103.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, and net profit is expected to be 29.4 billion yuan, showing no growth year-on-year [6] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 60.9% in 2023 to 64.7% in 2025, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 28.4% in 2023 to 31.4% in 2025 [6]

Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 revenue increased by 8% to 28.4 billion yuan, while Non-GAAP net profit rose by 27% to 9.5 billion yuan, slightly below expectations due to unrecognized revenue from some products and higher-than-expected marketing expenses [1] - The company declared a dividend of $0.114 per share and extended its share repurchase program of up to $5 billion until January 2029, having repurchased $2 billion by the end of Q3 2025 [1] Revenue and Profit Trends - Revenue from games and value-added services grew by 12%, driven by flagship products such as "Dream of Dreams" and "Egg Party," showcasing the company's long-term game operation capabilities [1] - Marketing expenses increased by 17% to 4.46 billion yuan, primarily due to seasonal promotional activities and new version marketing for flagship products, leading to a significant increase in deferred revenue [1] Investment and New Game Releases - The company achieved investment income of 1.38 billion yuan, which helped offset the impact of increased marketing expenses on profits [1] - New games "Destiny: Stars" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" are set to launch in overseas and Chinese markets, with the former nominated for the 2025 TGA Best Mobile Game [1] - The company plans to focus on global capabilities and the progress of key new games, with several titles in the pipeline for 2026 [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, with current valuations at 16/15x for Hong Kong stocks and 15/14x for U.S. stocks for 2025/2026 Non-GAAP P/E [2] - The company retains an outperform rating and a target price of 275 HKD / 177 USD, indicating an upside potential of 29% for Hong Kong stocks and 33% for U.S. stocks [2]

Core Insights - The 2025 Tokyo Game Show (TGS) concluded with record attendance and participation, highlighting the growing influence of Chinese game developers in the Japanese market [1][3][5] Group 1: Event Overview - TGS 2025 featured a record 1,136 exhibitors and 4,157 booths, with attendance exceeding 260,000, showcasing a vibrant atmosphere [1][2] - The event emphasized content over form, with many new product launches and gameplay experiences available for attendees [2] Group 2: Chinese Game Developers' Impact - Chinese game companies had a significant presence, with nearly 110 exhibitors, including major players like Tencent and NetEase, marking an unprecedented scale [1][3] - Games like "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot" from Century Games gained notable attention, with extensive promotional efforts and local collaborations enhancing their visibility [3][11] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Japanese gaming market, while smaller than the US and China, remains highly lucrative, with a projected mobile market revenue of $11 billion in 2025, making it the second-largest globally [6] - Chinese games are increasingly accepted in Japan, with local players showing high interest in titles like "Whiteout Survival," which has consistently ranked in the top charts [5][11] Group 4: Strategic Approaches - Chinese developers are adopting long-term strategies and localized approaches to penetrate the Japanese market, focusing on user engagement and differentiated products [10][11] - The success of titles like "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot" illustrates the effectiveness of these strategies, as they have achieved significant rankings in Japan's competitive market [11] Group 5: Recognition and Acceptance - The recognition of Chinese games in Japan is growing, as evidenced by titles like NetEase's "Infinite" featuring on the cover of a prominent Japanese gaming magazine [12] - The narrative around Chinese games is shifting from "made in China" to a focus on quality and innovation, reflecting a broader acceptance in the Japanese gaming community [12]

Core Viewpoint - Century Huatong has emerged as a significant player in the gaming industry, with its subsidiary, Diandian Interactive, surpassing major competitors like NetEase and miHoYo in global mobile game revenue, primarily due to its unique game offerings and strategic market positioning [1][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Diandian Interactive distributed approximately 600 million yuan among 27 employees this year, showcasing its financial success [1]. - From June 2023, Diandian Interactive's global mobile game revenue exceeded that of NetEase, securing the second position in the industry, only behind Tencent [1]. - The flagship games, "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot," have generated cumulative revenues of over $3.3 billion and $300 million, respectively [5]. Group 2: Market Strategy - Diandian Interactive has focused on niche markets, developing games in less competitive segments, such as survival strategy and shooting card games, which has allowed it to capture player interest without facing intense competition [4][7]. - The company has successfully localized its games to cater to regional player preferences, enhancing user engagement and retention [4][5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The gaming industry is witnessing an influx of competitors attempting to replicate Diandian Interactive's success, particularly in the survival strategy genre, which may increase customer acquisition costs for the company [7][10]. - Major players like Tencent are also entering the same market segments, intensifying competition and potentially impacting Diandian Interactive's market share [10][8]. Group 4: Future Initiatives - Diandian Interactive is actively working on retaining existing players through updates and enhancements to current games, while also exploring new game genres and integrating AI technologies to improve game development efficiency [11][12]. - The company is expanding its workforce, particularly targeting experienced talent from larger firms, indicating a commitment to growth and innovation [12].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant presence of Chinese anime games at TGS 2025, indicating a potential boom in the industry for 2026 with major titles like "Infinite," "Eternal Ring," and "Blue Star: Journey" set to launch [1][16] - The closure of the GiGO 1 building, previously a prominent advertising space for miHoYo, marks a shift in the landscape of the Akihabara area, contrasting sharply with the past dominance of "Genshin Impact" [1][29] - Despite the visible decline of miHoYo's advertising presence, its products remain popular in local stores, suggesting a change in strategy rather than a complete withdrawal from the market [6][11] Industry Dynamics - The surrounding business of merchandise, or "Gaozi economy," is increasingly seen as a marketing tool rather than a primary revenue source for game developers, with companies focusing more on enhancing user engagement [9][31] - MiHoYo's recent strategy reflects a shift towards cost-effective marketing, as evidenced by its absence from TGS this year, contrasting with its previous aggressive promotional tactics [11][15] - The rise of new Chinese titles at TGS indicates a growing recognition among Japanese players of these products, suggesting a shift in market dynamics and consumer preferences [13][16] Market Trends - The article notes a distinct difference in the types of games showcased at TGS compared to those in Akihabara, with a focus on new Chinese titles that are actively engaging players through innovative marketing strategies [16][22] - The upcoming release of several high-profile Chinese games is expected to revitalize the Akihabara area, which has seen a decline in its anime culture prominence [29][36] - The competitive landscape for 2024 is anticipated to be intense, with over ten major titles expected to launch, challenging the current market structure and consumer engagement strategies [38][39]

Core Insights - The Tokyo Game Show (TGS) is taking place from September 25 to 28, 2023, in Chiba, Tokyo, with expected attendance exceeding 300,000 [2] - Chinese gaming companies are making a significant presence at TGS this year, showcasing a record number of products [2] - Notable titles highlighted include Eagle Horn Network's "Arknights: End of the World," NetEase's "Infinite," "Reverse Water Cold," and Paper Games' "Infinite Warmth" and "Love and Deep Space" [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that NetEase (NTES.US) has seen a decline in stock price, dropping 2.06% to $127.61 in pre-market trading, marking a total decline of 7.3% over the past six days [1] - Morgan Stanley has downgraded NetEase's stock rating from "Overweight" to "Neutral," citing limited earnings growth potential due to increased marketing expenses for new and existing games over the next 1-2 years [1] - The report highlights a lack of major new game releases in the second half of the year, which may hinder revenue growth from gaming [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that the gaming market in mainland China is becoming saturated with international game supply, which could impact the revenue certainty of upcoming titles like "Forgotten Sea" and "Infinity" in 2026 [1] - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earnings per share from 2026 to 2027 is only 6% [1] - The target price for NetEase's stock has been raised from $135 to $140, despite the downgrade in rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the second-dimensional game market is experiencing a resurgence with numerous new high-quality products emerging, despite previous pessimism about the market's viability [2][31]. Industry Overview - The second-dimensional game market faced significant challenges last year, leading to a perception of a "bubble burst" and increased risks for new entrants [2][7]. - There is a pressing need for innovative, high-spec products to revitalize the market, and the first half of this year has already seen a surge in activity from various developers [2][6][29]. Company Movements - Several major companies, including Tencent, NetEase, and Perfect World, are actively developing new second-dimensional games, indicating a strong interest in this segment [16][18]. - Notable upcoming titles include "Silver City" by Le Element, "Yihuan" by Perfect World, and "Code: RIDER" by Tencent, all of which showcase diverse gameplay and artistic styles [4][12][20]. - MiHoYo is also making significant moves with the announcement of "Honkai: Inheritance Spirit" and a suspected new project related to "Genshin Impact," highlighting their commitment to expanding their IP universe [20][24]. Market Dynamics - The current landscape features a mix of traditional second-dimensional developers and newcomers from different gaming backgrounds, all vying for a share of the market [18][29]. - The competition is intensifying, with established companies like MiHoYo and Eagle Corner innovating their gameplay mechanics to adapt to evolving player expectations [24][26]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards faster development cycles and a focus on unique gameplay experiences, as companies aim to differentiate their offerings in a crowded market [29][30]. Future Outlook - The second-dimensional game market is poised for a potential boom in the coming years, with a variety of new titles expected to launch by 2025 or 2026 [4][31]. - The industry's evolution reflects a broader trend of increasing player demands for novelty and quality, suggesting that companies must innovate to maintain relevance [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of the game "Mingchao" has created a significant shift in the competitive landscape of the ACG (Anime, Comic, and Game) gaming sector, positioning it as a formidable rival to miHoYo's flagship titles like "Genshin Impact" [1][4][13]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The competitive landscape has shifted from a stable three-player dominance (Tencent, NetEase, and miHoYo) to a more fluid situation, with "Mingchao" emerging as a serious contender [15][30]. - The gaming market is experiencing a decline, with the actual sales revenue of China's ACG mobile game market dropping to 29.348 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.44% [27]. - The introduction of "Mingchao" has prompted miHoYo to abandon its complacency and re-engage with the market, leading to a renewed focus on content and player engagement [21][24]. Group 2: Company Performance - "Mingchao" initially struggled upon launch, with first-week revenue estimated at approximately 947 million yuan, significantly lower than "Genshin Impact," which earned between 3.5 billion to 4 billion yuan in its first week [9][10]. - Despite a rocky start, "Mingchao" has seen a resurgence in popularity, with its revenue recovering due to subsequent updates and improvements [10][16]. - miHoYo's revenue from its three main products is projected to decline by nearly 10 billion yuan in 2024 compared to 2023, indicating challenges in long-term product sustainability [14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The competitive pressure from "Mingchao" is expected to stimulate innovation and investment in the ACG gaming sector, potentially leading to a more diverse range of successful titles [20][30]. - Both Tencent and NetEase are intensifying their efforts in the ACG space, with Tencent launching "Xinghen Gongming" and NetEase focusing on "Wuxianda," indicating a strategic shift towards this growing market segment [29][30]. - The industry may witness a new wave of competition, with "Mingchao" setting a precedent for future titles to challenge established players like miHoYo [30].